Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AverageGlabella]

As soon as we had some positive news and positive direction we get hit by more negative news and the price looks like it could slip below $20000 again. I do not look at charts because I do not know how to read them and I think most of it is guessing from the speculato5rs but what caused us to slip down further after getting above $25000?

[philipma1957]

As soon as we had some positive news and positive direction we get hit by more negative news and the price looks like it could slip below $20000 again. I do not look at charts because I do not know how to read them and I think most of it is guessing from the speculato5rs but what caused us to slip down further after getting above $25000?

Short term news is inflation has not left us.
Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺 still going on.
Binance is to be questioned by US senate about shifting 1.8 billion in coins illegally.
Coinbase had an inside trader scandel


I can assure you interest rates will be good for at least a year.

And we are going to get the new I-Bond number which is at least 6%

The I-bond rates are brutal attack on all of crypto.

nov 2021 over 7%
april 2022 over 9%
nov 2022 near %
april 2023 over 6% is pretty much a done deal.

with proper understanding of how to buy these bonds you could have grabbed

15k in 2021
15k in 2022
15k in 2023

if the entire usa population was capable of maxing these bonds.

it could be 5 trillion a year or 15 trillion since rates got good.


This attack on crypto is not going to end.
Also as I have mentioned this is a great bailout for USA 🇺🇸 long term care industry.

they have gone from 3 trillion in dec 2021 to 3.5 trillion in dec 2022

and 40-55 percent chance of bankruptcy to a 30-35 percent chance of bankrupty

this is about 14 major companies that have accepted private payments for decades.

Genworth
John Hancock are two of the top 14 companies.

I follow them since my bro-in-law has them for his dementia.

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

quite sexy in her skinnies isn't she ?

 https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1623271902474108929  Maybe... maybe

[Lainta]

BREAKING: First anime porn inscribed on #Bitcoin blockchain 🚨😱

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1631633485550047232?t=6waTrunGQUFWGmf_rxv-IQ&s=19

[Lucius]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

[philipma1957]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

Is that real ?

If so it is brilliant.

[nutildah]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

Is that real ?

If so it is brilliant.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/crypto-mcdonalds-billboard/

[philipma1957]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

Is that real ?

If so it is brilliant.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/crypto-mcdonalds-billboard/

To bad would have been nice.

McDonalds could do a good move by riffing a set of commercials.



Buddy v Phil

buddy = 12
Phil    =  15

[nutildah]

Too bad would have been nice.

McDonalds could do a good move by riffing a set of commercials.

Well you can buy a McRib NFT. Out of the 10 they gave away, only 1 is for sale, and its a bit pricey.



https://twitter.com/McDonalds/status/1455174998264586243

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

Its funny to think that, in all likelihood, at least one person is just sitting on their McRib NFT thinking "this is my ticket to generational wealth." 

[dragonvslinux]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

quite sexy in her skinnies isn't she ?

 https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1623271902474108929  Maybe... maybe

oh ... ah..

I thought we were talking this *girl*
https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

[Gachapin]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

Very appropriate reasoning afaict

[Biodom]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

I might generally agree, but why bitcoin not having a blowoff top was because of anticipated inflation (in a direct fashion)?
Perhaps, it was rather a more complex relation: market surmised that because inflation is anticipated, fed would have to move and get into restrictive posture with regards to money printing, thereby restricting money flow to the most "speculative" (in most participants perspective) investments like bitcoin.

My position (unless proven wrong) is that bitcoin is still mostly governed by the 4 year cycles and macro could only influence it temporarily (like in March of 2020).

That said, I am enjoying getting 4.75% on my cash and at 6-7% I would convert even some stocks into cash.
If 10 year Treasury note would be at 7%, I would probably put 60% of my fiat into it and maybe some deferred annuity (rates should be great at that point), because, heck, what could be better in THOSE economic conditions (in fiat world).
Not touching my btc, though.

[Torque]

To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.

The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.

[Biodom]

To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.

The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.

that's why i never bought the stupid I-bond or even treasuries (yet).
treasury money market...highly liquid, 1:1 with cash and you could be out in 24hr.

To critics, I am getting into an age situation where money flow is what matters, so bitcoin is a long term savings account (a "fortress of solitude" in the "Gambler" parlance) and money flow from work (currently), pension, soc sec, money market (interest), potentially deferred annuities, etc, etc is a spending account with multiple entries. Never wanted to own properties for rent-not my thing when I would have to chase the non-payers (renters).

[ImThour]

Sup WO mates, how's it going? BTW Health > Wealth. Stay Safe!