Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lucius]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

[philipma1957]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

Is that real ?

If so it is brilliant.

[nutildah]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

Is that real ?

If so it is brilliant.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/crypto-mcdonalds-billboard/

[philipma1957]

Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some

Is that real ?

If so it is brilliant.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/crypto-mcdonalds-billboard/

To bad would have been nice.

McDonalds could do a good move by riffing a set of commercials.



Buddy v Phil

buddy = 12
Phil    =  15

[nutildah]

Too bad would have been nice.

McDonalds could do a good move by riffing a set of commercials.

Well you can buy a McRib NFT. Out of the 10 they gave away, only 1 is for sale, and its a bit pricey.



https://twitter.com/McDonalds/status/1455174998264586243

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

Its funny to think that, in all likelihood, at least one person is just sitting on their McRib NFT thinking "this is my ticket to generational wealth." 

[dragonvslinux]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

quite sexy in her skinnies isn't she ?

 https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1623271902474108929  Maybe... maybe

oh ... ah..

I thought we were talking this *girl*
https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

[Gachapin]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

Very appropriate reasoning afaict

[Biodom]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

I might generally agree, but why bitcoin not having a blowoff top was because of anticipated inflation (in a direct fashion)?
Perhaps, it was rather a more complex relation: market surmised that because inflation is anticipated, fed would have to move and get into restrictive posture with regards to money printing, thereby restricting money flow to the most "speculative" (in most participants perspective) investments like bitcoin.

My position (unless proven wrong) is that bitcoin is still mostly governed by the 4 year cycles and macro could only influence it temporarily (like in March of 2020).

That said, I am enjoying getting 4.75% on my cash and at 6-7% I would convert even some stocks into cash.
If 10 year Treasury note would be at 7%, I would probably put 60% of my fiat into it and maybe some deferred annuity (rates should be great at that point), because, heck, what could be better in THOSE economic conditions (in fiat world).
Not touching my btc, though.

[Torque]

To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.

The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.

[Biodom]

To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.

The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.

that's why i never bought the stupid I-bond or even treasuries (yet).
treasury money market...highly liquid, 1:1 with cash and you could be out in 24hr.

To critics, I am getting into an age situation where money flow is what matters, so bitcoin is a long term savings account (a "fortress of solitude" in the "Gambler" parlance) and money flow from work (currently), pension, soc sec, money market (interest), potentially deferred annuities, etc, etc is a spending account with multiple entries. Never wanted to own properties for rent-not my thing when I would have to chase the non-payers (renters).

[ImThour]

Sup WO mates, how's it going? BTW Health > Wealth. Stay Safe!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

I might generally agree, but why bitcoin not having a blowoff top was because of anticipated inflation (in a direct fashion)?
Perhaps, it was rather a more complex relation: market surmised that because inflation is anticipated, fed would have to move and get into restrictive posture with regards to money printing, thereby restricting money flow to the most "speculative" (in most participants perspective) investments like bitcoin.

Indeed, something more complex like that, but otherwise under the guise of anticipated inflation still (whether direct or indirect). Or I take the alternative theory and speculate that because of the Chinese mining ban causing price to drop by 50% for 2 months, it broke the bull market structure of it's usual -35% pull-backs lasting around a month. The momentum had faded and quite simply took too long (6 months) to recover in reaching it's all time high again, compared to every other time taking only 6-8 weeks. This would also be more directly attributed to Bitcoin's fundamentals (it's network), as opposed to external factors.

Ie if price had recovered to ATH by July, instead of November, then there would have been a lot more time for price to continue to the upside (ie 4/5 more months). Instead it was consumed on a recovery. Personally, if I had to attribute the lack of blow off top in 2021, it'd be down to it's fundamentals - like a huge reduction of hash rate causing mass selling - as opposed to external factors that doesn't directly affect price.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

Let me text and ask her 

[Gachapin]

+1 WOsMerit

I was completely blind for these poverty / forum rank / signature campaign aspects, man.
Thanks for shedding a light.

frankly... I'm only about 70% sure that your post is not meant sarcastically ...

Two things:

(1). I know you don't know my habits too good (yet), but i really try to mark sarcasm and irony (for reasons) using emoticons (grin and twinkle, mostly). Since there is no emoticon, you can be 99,9% sure that i meant it. 0,1% are reserved for the rare occasion of me forgetting to emoticonify irony.

(2). I wouldn't credit a WOsMerit if i didn't mean it, would i?

(1) thanks for clarifying.

(2) I'd say that depends on the level of sarcasm.  You can meet all sorts of persons online  

And I didn't know what to make of the fact that you wrote about sending a sMerit but did not actually send any...

Other things you might not know:

I am rarely aware of things i don't come across regularly, because of my fucked up Working Memory. This excludes facts and things i had learned before my Chronic Fatigue adventure, which started back in 2010 after a viral infection. It's a strange way to live through the days, being smart and intelligent but not able to hold information effectively in memory, which i was also very good at, before 2010. I come around slightly dumb to most "normal" people i personally deal with daily, which i find pretty ironic, but still - there is no irony.
Imagine trying to call out your neighbor's name to get his attention, but you can't remember it, because it is stored somewhere in your brain, but not accessible at the moment you need it. It's unreliable storage and retrieval of information in Longterm Memory, hard to explain how it "feels" like, so i use examples to make interested people better understand.
There are some Supps that help, but sustainable cure is yet to be found.

OT:

Speaking of Supps, i found some interesting Amino-acid lately: c, which is derived from green tea, works remarkably well at dosage of 100mg daily.
WO brothers suffering from mood swings, anxiety, problems to keep focus and feeling stressed out or unrelaxed should more than just benefit from that stuff.
L-Theanine is the active component found in green tea, but the Caffeine contained in the tea is elevating restlessness and alertness, pushing heart rate and thus working like an antagonist to L-Theanine effects.
I have read that it really helps peeps suffering from anxiety of all sorts, who also don't want to take these emotionally flattening antidepressants (SSRI).
A few days of taking that shit and it started to work a charm for my focusing problems. It also got noticeably harder to get me upset and/or angry.
#NOMEDICALADVICE

That's interesting.  I experience similar memorizing problems, although maybe not as intense.  

It's actually right on the edge, so that I can accept not being able to remember certain stuff at certain moments.  

I almost tend to feel that there is a reason that my brain does not dig out the stuff I want it to.  That reason being actual importance.

I wonder, maybe it just knows better than me what info I really need.  And I somewhat came to trust my brain to some extend in that regard.  (Trusting it to save the right resources)

For example, I have hard times remembering peoples names, but I came to the understanding that names are just not that important, when you are interested in a person's inside instead.  

On the contrary I rarely ever forget faces.  I can recognize individuals in the street with whom I had the last contact over 10-20 years ago.  And I can approach them and say hi.  For me that is far more important than to remember their name.

So I started to trust my brain a bit more that it puts its resources where it seems appropriate.


And thanks for the Theanine info.  I guess I will drink more green tea again.  Was a big fan but got lazy having to prepare it.
Btw there are some studies about coconut oil preventing Alzheimers.  Maybe it's good for memory in general.

[philipma1957]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

Let me text and ask her 

Is that your girl ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation