Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Buckle up, buckaroos.

Coin up, coinaroos.
 

That's a very cornie expression....

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848
2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf

But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

My rule 0 is someone has a better model than you unless this is something you do full-time and their gain will likely be your loss.

overlooked your comment.

True. Cannot argue with that. One could add that it's not only about the better model but also about the deeper pockets.

I have issues with these various theories about "manipulation," and sure bigger players might be able to play their hands better, and they might even have some abilities to get access to insider information (or perhaps even see how the markets might move with their own deployment of capital); however, most people still have to figure out their own strategies, including figuring out how much they are even going to enter into the game.

And, yeah, maybe we (the three of us) are saying similar things, but still I get senses of futility coming out of both of you (Gachapin and Richy_T).. or at least you seem to be somewhat heavily subscribing to ideas that the cards are stacked against the little guy... and maybe that is somewhat true, but not so much with bitcoin.  Bitcoin is and has been an investment in which the little guy (retail) have been able to front run the BIGGER players, and since we are still early (believe it or not), the little guy (retail) can still front run the BIGGER players.. even if s/he is a newbie no coiner or a low coiner - who might be in the earlier stages of building the size of his/her bitcoin stash.

So who cares whatever the supposed manipulators are doing and their various strategies, the little guy (retail) can figure out his own situation and attempt to be as aggressive as he feels (believes) that s/he is capable of being in terms of stacking sats without getting reckt.. and the information is already available to him/her.. stack as many sats as you can, and likely in 4-10 years (or maybe a little longer) you will be in a much better place.. so long as you have been mostly focused on accumulating through various buying strategies, such as DCA, buying on dips and lump sum buying, and don't be fucking around with selling as an accumulation strategy, until you are well into profits and until you are largely over invested in bitcoin.. and ONLY you can figure out those various thresholds.. perhaps practicing and studying along the way, and don't get too worked up or worried if their might be some folks (such as BIG players) who you believe that might be doing better than you, when in fact, since you are still early, there are a lot of players, including BIG players who still have little to no clue about the idea of building a bitcoin portfolio and aggressively stacking sats.

[Learn Bitcoin]

Exchanges can borrow coin in order to pass an audit.  NYKNYC.

Exactly.
In this case, you should check their wallet instead of relying on some 3rd party audits.

[Hamza2424]

$27 trillion is coming...

Haha, buddy what are you saying, do you really know?
$27T are they going to sell all their assets to just buy Bitcoins, Yeah this is my dream as well to watch Bitcoin the most capital-holding asset ever in my life but 27T is not at all possible in the coming 2 halvings at least.

Just Imagine 1% Only which can be a reality if if SEC doesn't fuck up the ongoing ETF approvals, I will be $270B currently exchanged or you can say the Liquid supply available in the market for these Giants is just 11% to 12%. According to the current market price it is worth only around $300B.

Now enjoy the moment of joy, if they bring this capital directly in the Bitcoin boom you'll see a new ATH just lead by this investment of 1%, hope so you've got it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

good old germany

Australia is not 32% for long term capital gains.

You actually get a 50% discount on capital gains tax for assets held longer than 12months. Based on your marginal tax rate.

Depending on which marginal tax brackets you are in, your paying 16.25% / 18.5% or 22.5%

[JayJuanGee]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!
https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

A statistic quoted from an outsider like stanley duckenmiller takes nothing into account, like lost BTC or Satoshi's coins (I am assuming).

Does that significantly change your argument?  Instead of having 86% of bitcoin HODLers not moving their coins, instead you have 76% or maybe 66%?

How much does that contribute to your argument in which the liquid supply of bitcoin that is moving around is still a minority of the available coins - even though surely I can see the difference between 86% and 66%, if that were a realistic change in the numbers.

$27 trillion is coming...

Haha, buddy what are you saying, do you really know?
$27T are they going to sell all their assets to just buy Bitcoins, Yeah this is my dream as well to watch Bitcoin the most capital-holding asset ever in my life but 27T is not at all possible in the coming 2 halvings at least.

Just Imagine 1% Only which can be a reality if if SEC doesn't fuck up the ongoing ETF approvals, I will be $270B currently exchanged or you can say the Liquid supply available in the market for these Giants is just 11% to 12%. According to the current market price it is worth only around $300B.

Now enjoy the moment of joy, if they bring this capital directly in the Bitcoin boom you'll see a new ATH just lead by this investment of 1%, hope so you've got it.

Yes.. I was going to make a similar kind of commentary to Out of mind...   which would be that 1% to 10%  ($270 million to $2.7 trillion) would be feasible for these kinds of institutions to invest into bitcoin if they were really putting their money where their mouths are (or at least in terms of recommending that clients allocate in that kind of a 1% to 10% kind of a way), even if the funds might be restricted to how much they can recommend in regards to certain kinds of non-traditional assets (including something like bitcoin) whcih might be the lower numbers,

....and even though I recommend individuals (newbies, lowcoiners or no coiners) to consider getting the fuck off of zero with an allocation into bitcoin of anywhere between 1% to 25% to start with, and of course, each person has to figure out the specific number / percentage out for their lil selfies... including taking responsibility for the number that they choose - which could be on the more aggressive side (such as 25%) if they are really bullish about bitcoin or even on the more whimpy side and closer to 1% if they are a more scared lil cat.. while at the same time, individuals (aka normies) also have to figure out their discretionary budget, and if they even have enough income that they are able to invest into anything (whether bitcoin or anything else) without devolving into gambling practices... .

...so institutions do NOT have the ability to be anywhere as close to the level of aggressive as individuals (when it comes to percentages that that they might be able to allocate into bitcoin or to recommend that their clients allocate into bitcoin)..... one of the reasons that individuals are so easy to front load institutions and even rich twats who might only feel that they are able to invest through something like an ETF rather than merely buying bitcoin directly (which is surely better for people to own the direct underlying asset, even though some folks are restricted in the ways that they can use some of their investment funds - namely investment funds that might have access to something like an ETF - but not legally allowed to buy bitcoin directly).

[OgNasty]

$27 trillion is coming...
https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1673436174222852098?t=b0t0g5OdXtvr1lovcEsUiQ&s=19

That is a crazy idea to think about. If this all went according to the best case scenario (as I think we have pretty much seen up until FTX) then I could see this propelling Bitcoin into the millions per BTC in 10-15 years. I think the banks are placing their bets that the Bitcoin market is going to follow gold’s footsteps after ETFs launched.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

good old germany

I have to add that Capital Gains Tax of Austria of 27,5% is only valid for BTC/Crypto bought earlier than March 2021.
Everything before that is tax free, and every Satoshi sold after that date (EDIT: plus one more year as a transition to the old 1-year holding law) is considered to be one of the possibly "old" amount.
So, if you are a citizen of Austria and have 10 BTC, while 3 were bought before 03/2021, only 2 got taxed if you sold 5 BTC after 03/2022.
Converting to other Cryptos (and stablecoins) became tax free, while it was not if converted within a year, in comparison to the old law (before 03/2022).

[xhomerx10]

good old germany

Australia is not 32% for long term capital gains.

You actually get a 50% discount on capital gains tax for assets held longer than 12months. Based on your marginal tax rate.

Depending on which marginal tax brackets you are in, your paying 16.25% / 18.5% or 22.5%

 Likewise, Canada is not 33% - that's the Federal tax rate for over $221k of income but there is also a provincial component to get the total tax rate which varies by province.  The most expensive province would be Nova Scotia and the total tax rate would be 54% on income if you make over $221k however, the capital gains inclusion rate is 1/2 so only half of your gain is taxed as income which means the highest possible marginal rate on capital gains in Canada would be 27%... which still sucks ass. 

 Now if you had no other income and made a capital gain of $23,000 in Nova Scotia, you would pay only $2 tax since you're barely over the basic personal exemption for the year - that's pretty much tax-free

[Biodom]

Gawd, i thought our (US) tax rates are complicated, but by the looks of it....everyone's is (except Germany, perhaps).
BTW, in US is 20% only for a certain range: above $492300 for singles ($553850 for married).
Below that: 0% (!!) for less than $89250 (for married or below $44625 for singles) and 15% for 44626-492300 for singles or $89251-553850 for married.

say, you got a a nice 200K in long term (more than a year) cap gains and you are married, therefore your cap gains tax would be:

200000-89250=110750X0.15=16612.5=about 8.3% effective tax initially(not bad!).

After 200K (or 250 for married) of modified adjusted gross income (MAGI), though, you get hit with NIIT (3.8%), so maybe total would be a bit more.

TL;DR take less than about 89K in cap gains (long term) per year in US while being married and have total income (cap gains+business+work) less than 200K and you pay zero cap gains.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[psycodad]

good old germany

The 11.5% for Switzerland are complete nonsense.
There is no crypto tax, there is only a property tax where crypto coins are added (based on an average fiat worth that the tax admin sets yearly) to your other properties and this tax is almost always in the very low single percentage figures (~1-5%).
Trading gains are tax free too as long as they do not classify one as professional trader (which would simply lead to paying income taxes on the gains).

[pawel7777]

good old germany

Australia is not 32% for long term capital gains.

You actually get a 50% discount on capital gains tax for assets held longer than 12months. Based on your marginal tax rate.

Depending on which marginal tax brackets you are in, your paying 16.25% / 18.5% or 22.5%

And for the UK, 45% is the highest tax band. So looks like this chart represents some worst-case scenario or something.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

https://youtube.com/watch?v=v6yg4ImnYwA&feature=share9


Rick & Morty a little different

[BitcoinVSfiat]

Explanation

Damn baby, good to be back to 30's.

Finally remember my old password and I'm back!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Apparently, Fidelity is about to submit an ETF for approval really soon.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1673705284223614978 (planB retweeted this)
The original source was probably this:
https://www.theblock.co/post/236588/fidelity-preparing-to-submit-spot-bitcoin-etf-filing-source