Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Out of mind]

Bitcoin to $100k - $1m?

https://youtu.be/iuf69tureKc


Source

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Guys!  There just may be a way to stick around for the final Bitcoin halving...

https://www.businessinsider.nl/a-46000-year-old-worm-found-in-siberian-permafrost-was-brought-back-to-life-and-started-having-babies/

"A 46,000-year-old worm found in Siberian permafrost was brought back to life, and started having babies

 Scientists discovered a female microscopic roundworm
 that has been stuck deep in Siberian permafrost for
 46,000 years, the Washington Post reported. When
 they revived it, the worm started having babies via a
 process called parthenogenesis, which doesn't
 require a mate..."

 I wouldn't recommend you immediately begin parthenogenesis when you're revived though...  check the bitcoin price first.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[HelliumZ]

Guys!  There just may be a way to stick around for the final Bitcoin halving...

https://www.businessinsider.nl/a-46000-year-old-worm-found-in-siberian-permafrost-was-brought-back-to-life-and-started-having-babies/

"A 46,000-year-old worm found in Siberian permafrost was brought back to life, and started having babies

 Scientists discovered a female microscopic roundworm
 that has been stuck deep in Siberian permafrost for
 46,000 years, the Washington Post reported. When
 they revived it, the worm started having babies via a
 process called parthenogenesis, which doesn't
 require a mate..."

 I wouldn't recommend you immediately begin parthenogenesis when you're revived though...  check the bitcoin price first.

Once Bitcoin goes dormant, will it be possible to revive Bitcoin?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[FinePoine0]

Bitcoin's halving is less than a year away - how high will the price go?

The most exciting property of Bitcoin (from an investment perspective) is “increasing scarcity.”  Bitcoin is the first (and only) asset in history that offers a reliable guarantee of increasing scarcity in its supply issuance.



This is Bitcoin’s supply issuance schedule.  What the hell does that mean?  Well, the day that Bitcoin launched in January 2009… there were 0 Bitcoin in existence.  Eventually, there will be a hardcapped, absolute maximum of 21M Bitcoin in existence.  But how do you go from 0 to 21M?


Which is why each halving is so exciting for Bitcoin holders.

Let’s assume that Bitcoin’s price stays at $30k/coin until the next halving in late April 2024.  When the halving occurs at block 840,000, suddenly there will be half as much supply being created and going out into the market to meet incoming demand.



There will only be $450M of Bitcoin being created each month, but $900M of demand.  This is a guaranteed, predictable, reliable supply shortage.  It will begin in April 2024.

Source link: https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/bitcoins-halving-is-less-than-a-year

[Samrean]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Learn Bitcoin]

Not posted in a while just trucking away with dca and stacking. Was out in the world enjoying life and started to notice Btc in general life, from billboards, graffiti, bitcoin atms etc. I’m not sure if it was always there or not but what do we think about this type of engagement with Joe Public. I wonder has anyone found their way here from something like seeing a btc atm in their local area.

I’m having some serious internal debates on whether to over allocate into Btc this year, I had set some targets around totals with what I felt was balanced and am approaching these way sooner than I thought was possible. With WO’s who have over allocated before any learnings to help me with my own decisions?

Another one been wrestling with is continue to allocate same during a bull and new ath, or under allocate for that time. I see comments about oh know if you bought at the top it’s bad but wouldn’t all dca’rs have bought at the top?

Well lets pretend your investment stack of buckets is 20k

if you are under 50 and you are 18k not btc  2k btc

adding just BTC for the rest of the year could be a good idea.

The ratios of your investments could go from:

 10% btc 90 % not BTC
to
 20% BTC 80% not BTC

the younger you are the harder you could push BTC

Just remember investment money is more or less what you can afford to lose or hodl for a long time.

Thanks for the response! I set it at 5% and figured out I can increase it to about 13% without any impact this year. Next year can move it to 20%, so like 20% of my fun money goes to Btc, and 80% to other investments.

The bit I’m wondering too, is in the year it breaks the current ath should I reduce allocation for dca(don’t stop it)and put aside for buying on the way down or just keep going with current allocation.

One miner q for you do you hold much weight in price to mine 1btc that the big miners are sharing to the SEC each q. Is it realistic the price to mine is currently in that 20-30k range? I’m not sure if it’s a true correlation but the bottoms in cycles seem to be really close to the avg price to mine 1btc. I wonder is this a better way to understand true bottom Vs stating it’s some %drop range from ath’s

Its hard to answer that cost to mine a btc question. But I will try.

An established miner with gear paid off.
Lets say he has 400 s19 pros. All paid off.

400 x 110 = 44000 th
they burn 75kwatts each day for each one.

or 30000 kwatts a day for 400 .

110 x 7.2 cents = $7.92 a day for 1 unit
  75 x 5 cent power cost = $3.75 for 1 unit

4.17 profit a day right now today for 1 miner
400 x 4.17 = 1668 dollars a day for all 400 miners

So in 19 days boom a Btc. pure profit.

or 19 x 400 x 7.92 = $60192  worth of btc earned which is 2 coins
19 x 400 x 3.75 =  $28500 in power spent which is under 1 coin.

now what did I skip cost of the gear as My example is with paid off gear.
I also skipped labor for those 19 days.
I also skipped cooling for those 19 days.
I also skipped cost of your building

And I used 5 cent power to calculate power cost.

Gear is not a sunk cost as gear lasts 2-5 years must be churned and replaced.
Your building may be paid off and has at least 20 years life in it.

I am not a big miner I may have 100 units of gear.
All paid
one or two are always broken
Lots of labor.

But runups are glorious and mining becomes a lot of fun.

At the moment its a grind.

You need under 8 cents power cost to be in the black.
and 5 cents power cost to be doing well.

Also I am using no loan examples.

If you carry loans to get your gear you need 2-5 cent power to survive.

Very good...clearly shows that this is a cost of production aka electricity cost game right now and later on would require at least doubling of the price to maintain profitability even with 5c power. If no price doubling within the next 8-10 mo, then miners would be negatively affected.

My residential power is 12c now so I cannot mine even if wanted to....it is just not profitable.

So even if a miner is hardcore Bitcoiner, they won't be able to mine if power costs raises and no price increase. we have a couple of months before the halving event. We may see price hikes after the halving event. Before the event, miners still get 6.25 per block and profitability will remain the same as phill described. But, let's say the halving event split the block reward but the BTC price did not double, the profitability may split as well. The question is, how many miners will continue mining without profit? After all, everyone is looking for profit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

whole new low in twitterposting right here. WTF does this have to do with anything remotely relevant in this thread? Please don't tell me its the boobs.

Posting on WO just for the sake of Merits and that too by so many alts is annoying.

So you agree that those who mostly posts in WO for merits are alts of each other and they are annoying. Rightly said.
Can you give the names of those accounts who are alts and doing this stuff ?

oh the irony

OK I know me whinging at merit farmers is getting old so I'm just putting all of them on ignore from now on... Those who could stop them don't want to. So the new paradigm is WO + merit farmers and I'll just live with it.

[d_eddie]

Here is the Bitstamp BTCUSD chart. It can be made to fill the page.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

Firefox: Dark mode extension, Filter+ mode



You're welcome

[AlcoHoDL]

Here is the Bitstamp BTCUSD chart. It can be made to fill the page.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

Firefox: Dark mode extension, Filter+ mode

[...]

Just FYI, there is native Dark Mode support in TradingView, just enable it using the menu on the top-left.

But yeah, the Dark Reader extension for Firefox is excellent. Can't live without it.

[d_eddie]

Here is the Bitstamp BTCUSD chart. It can be made to fill the page.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

Did you move the goal posts on us?

Or, are you merely thinking outside of the box?

 

I'm not telling uie-pooie

WTF does this have to do with anything remotely relevant in this thread? Please don't tell me its the boobs.

Too small and too hidden to pass the WO test.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This aligns perfectly with what I think will happen with the price over the next two cycles -


@StockmoneyL
#Bitcoins all time highs (ATH) beautifully line up on this exponential growth curve.

Target ATH 2025: $150,000 - $200,000

https://twitter.com/stockmoneyl/status/1685226799490383872

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this

Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

Yes very simple... have fun with your new "developer" fork...

...
So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin
...

That's not the price 5.2 trillion going into BTC would generate.

It's the same like thinking that if someone bought 570 Billion $ of BTC now, it would only double the current price to 58000$.

No 5.2 trillion market cap for BTC is not same 5.2 trillion going into BTC . I should be more clear as I did mention shifting wealth so it would seem like that I meant people spend 5.2 trillion to buy all the btc. As John Galt said it would be more complex than  stocks trading for btc or  gold trading for btc.



But yeah if you tried to buy every coin in existence  the market cap could go to 15 trillion.






As for developers freeing the lost coins they likely will one day. Unfortunate that will take more than 30 years from now maybe 2080.

So I won't live to see it.

I am almost certain that if BTC does succeed those coins will be freed down the road.

But it is arguing a point in time so far away it does not affect me and likely very few of us would be alive to see it happen.

I don't see why any holder of BTC would want to have dormant or lost coins hitting the market and decrease their networth

I can give you a long list of reasons why it will happen. But when you talk about the year 2080 no one really knows what is relevant.

Just remember holders of coins do not vote since there is no staking. Well maybe one can say LN is kind of like staking.

hodlers always have the last word.  they choose which fork has value and gets used.
now, why should hodlers value a fork where devs are distributing coins that are not theirs, thereby diluting the available supply, and even worse, destroying Bitcoin's NYKNYC-feature?

@philipma1957

Sorry for my persistence, but I'm actually still waiting for some of your "long list of reasons" that answers my above question....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com