Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Was that quote in your sig really one of mine? lol


(for the record the 100k by 2014 was tongue in cheek. although I was in a good mood when I typed it )

Yes it was Sometime in 23rd november

[N12]

On that topic, someone (I forgot who) posted a misconception of sentiment during bear markets saying that once the sentiment swings bearish, a bear market is necessarily over.

Even though there can be brief and sharp capitulations where that is true, during a very prolonged bear market you'd expect the majority to become bearish sometime in the latter half. Generally a good deal of people enter a trend in the mid or toward the end, then start betting heavily and feel vindicated for a while. A good analogy for that is oversold/overbought indicators where if the indicator bounces off this area, it is bullish, but if it stays embedded, it's bearish until it leaves it. Historically for Bitcoin, most people were bearish months before the December 2011 low happened, and several price multiples higher.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cbeast]

It this the Final China Going Out Of Bitcoin Business Sale!

[JayJuanGee]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

 

 

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

Actually, Rpietila did NOT like that upside part of the bet, and regarding the downside of the bet (the $435), he was attempting to be so amorphous that NONE of us would likely be able to pin him down in any kind of way concerning to what he was betting... like trying to catch a well oiled lil piggy.

I was under the impression that Rpietila's initial statement was pretty unambiguous.  He said:  BTC will "NEVER" breach $435 again.  He felt so confident, and asked does anyone want to bet? 

But when he was called out for specifics and for an actual commitment to a bet, he weasled with the invention of conditions for the bet and suggested that it was NOT worth his time to make any kind of commitment to such a bet unless he was for sure going to make some money out of the deal or to get "odds" that were NOT part of the initial statement.

AS if everything that any of us does in this thread requires that we make money along the way.

Again, I could care less if someone is wrong about the future.. b/c we know that the future is difficult to predict - especially short-term.  He's got another problem, in these circumstances..... and I feel that I need NOT repeat myself again regarding this particular point and regarding his problem of lack of commitment, here.

[windjc]

On that topic, someone (I forgot who) posted a misconception of sentiment during bear markets saying that once the sentiment swings bearish, a bear market is necessarily over.

Even though there can be brief and sharp capitulations where that is true, during a very prolonged bear market you'd expect the majority to become bearish sometime in the latter half. Generally a good deal of people enter a trend in the mid or toward the end, then start betting heavily and feel vindicated for a while. A good analogy for that is oversold/overbought indicators where if the indicator bounces off this area, it is bullish, but if it stays embedded, it's bearish until it leaves it. Historically for Bitcoin, most people were bearish months before the December 2011 low happened, and several price multiples higher.

Yeah, this seems about right.

I think basing a top on sentiment is easier than basing a bottom. There is so much built in enthusiasm in bitcoin that the bearish lows can't naturally be as bearish and the bullish highs.

Most people, including myself, want the market to go up. Its natural to want it so.

I do not feel "vindicated" by being correct these last 6 weeks. These recovery from 340 to 550 in a few days was impressive.

But I feel like the towel is not rung out yet.

If I saw new money and investors coming in, if I didn't see miners extending their credit in hopes of not having to sell, if I saw new markets emerging right now, if I didn't see so much hopefullness that assumptions that 2014 is just playing out like 2013, then I would not be bear.

Its possible that the optimism of margin traders and the doubling down philosophy of bitcoin enthusiasts might be enough to keep us afloat until fundamentals can lift us upwards.

So I will trade lightly in this area. But there is the possibility that this could get ugly fast.

[windjc]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

 

 

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

Actually, Rpietila did NOT like that upside part of the bet, and regarding the downside of the bet (the $435), he was attempting to be so amorphous that NONE of us would likely be able to pin him down in any kind of way concerning to what he was betting... like trying to catch a well oiled lil piggy.

I was under the impression that Rpietila's initial statement was pretty unambiguous.  He said:  BTC will "NEVER" breach $435 again.  He felt so confident, and asked does anyone want to bet? 

But when he was called out for specifics and for an actual commitment to a bet, he weasled with the invention of conditions for the bet and suggested that it was NOT worth his time to make any kind of commitment to such a bet unless he was for sure going to make some money out of the deal or to get "odds" that were NOT part of the initial statement.

AS if everything that any of us does in this thread requires that we make money along the way.

Again, I could care less if someone is wrong about the future.. b/c we know that the future is difficult to predict - especially short-term.  He's got another problem, in these circumstances..... and I feel that I need NOT repeat myself again regarding this particular point and regarding his problem of lack of commitment, here.

I'd say thats a pretty accurate summation.

[JayJuanGee]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

I think that Bitcoinwisdom is out to get you with the belief that you are becoming too self-confident.  Bitcoinwisdom wants to put you in your place. by handicapping you.  It's like golf, if you get too good, then your handicap points are removed.  You are playing Bitcoinwisdom golf.   

[silverfuture]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joITmEr4SjY

 Bitcoin vs. Political Power: The Cryptocurrency Revolution - Stefan Molyneux at TNW Conference

[el_rlee]

It this the Final China Going Out Of Bitcoin Business Sale!

I hope it is. I seriously can't take any more crashes on China news.

[Dabs]

I'm still a bull. But then my views are greatly simplified.

[y3804]

Good news! NO FUD.

BTCChina:

http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotime

Small partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033

Who knows if it's true.

Human translation: Rumors about BTCChina suspending withdrawals are false. Recharge and withdrawals still working

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Good news! NO FUD.

BTCChina:

http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotime

Small partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033

A chinese guy on tradingview chat was telling me this yesterday. a lot of chinese are not concerned at all - after all, the chinese have declared that they cant ban it, dont have the authority to ban it, and dont wish to ban it. There will be a loop hole in the system for deposits somewhere. ill bet on it, seems like the chinese think so.

thanks for posting.

[windjc]

Good news! NO FUD.

BTCChina:

http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotime

Small partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033

So, everything is fine now, right?

[windjc]

Btw, Houbi's chart looks horrible. (Its finally working on bitcoinwisdom though!). We made new lows today and the 50% fib is acting like resistance. It seems almost inevitable that we see 2500 soon.

If there is no bad news in China why is Houbi breaking down through support?

I had to short some more. Just too obvious that we will see more downside.

Who knows, maybe I am wrong.

[y3804]

Btw, Houbi's chart looks horrible. (Its finally working on bitcoinwisdom though!). We made new lows today and the 50% fib is acting like resistance. It seems almost inevitable that we see 2500 soon.

If there is no bad news in China why is Houbi breaking down through support?

I had to short some more. Just to obvious that we will see more downside.

Who knows, maybe I am wrong.

Yeah it's quite weird. Drop without any bad news. That's why I said insider trading..

[N12]

You know, the exchanges trying to circumvent the spirit of the PBOC's notices is what prolongs a lot. Now they have explicitely banned any direct and indirect (such as vouchers) methods of funding. So if they continue their defiance on a broad scale, I'm guessing that sometime in the future, the authorities will be forced to make an example and arrest some exchange operator.

I used to think that the Chinese know more than we do, but I've come to the conclusion that they are as delusional as most here.

[windjc]

You know, the exchanges trying to circumvent the spirit of the PBOC's notices is what prolongs a lot. Now they have explicitely banned any direct and indirect (such as vouchers) methods of funding. So if they continue their defiance on a broad scale, I'm guessing that sometime in the future, the authorities will be forced to make an example and arrest some exchange operator.

I used to think that the Chinese know more than we do, but I've come to the conclusion that they are as delusional as most here.

I think they are more so. I think its their mentality. Its very very emotional and surprisingly defiant in a passive aggressive sort of way. I don't trust anything the exchanges say. Its very Goxesque.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

I think that Bitcoinwisdom is out to get you with the belief that you are becoming too self-confident.  Bitcoinwisdom wants to put you in your place. by handicapping you.  It's like golf, if you get too good, then your handicap points are removed.  You are playing Bitcoinwisdom golf.   

I have had this problem most of the time today, but now it is OK.