Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[knarzo]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

Having the same problem.


On an unrelated note: Seems like this market is a fear driven market. Can't wait to see what happens monday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcvIQv2GIVI 

[JorgeStolfi]

Sad to see what has happened to your mind, Jorge.

Indeed.  Like the other day when I suggested that stealing bitcoins by address spoofing would be a problem unique to bitcoin.

That's not how exchanges work.  It's also about 1000x more complicated and risky and public than it needs to be to accomplish the supposed ends of this unworkable scheme.

There are many other ways to pay a bribe of course.  But suppose that person A in Shangai needs to transfer 250'000 yuan (say = 100 BTC = 40'000 USD) to person B in Beijing without the payment being spotted by the police.  Any scheme that requires complicity a third person is risky because he could be an informant or a blackmailer. 

Can he use bitcoin exchanges for that purpose, without leaving a trail?  Transfers of bitcoins are visible on the blockchain, so A cannot just buy bitcoins on an exchange, withdraw them, and transfer them to B: the conversions of BTC from/to yuan would be in the exchange's deposit/withdraw logs, they would connect to the blockchain transfers to trace the path.  But if there were a way to transfer the yuan from A to B while they are inside the exchange, then...

[windjc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcvIQv2GIVI 

Was that quote in your sig really one of mine? lol


(for the record the 100k by 2014 was tongue in cheek. although I was in a good mood when I typed it )

[windjc]

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

i'm curious on what happend to this windjc that I knew of

I just wanted to ask, because I remember him chastising me and others for suggesting a bear market because fundamentals. Those fundamentals haven't changed as far as I see.

Anyway, hopefully the bet was finalized. Congrats on winning.

Of course the bet wasn't finalized. Have you EVER seen Rpeitila actually put his money where his mouth is? You've been here longer than any of us.

Those quotes that were posted of me from months ago - that was a different me. I had only experienced the bull market - I got involved in September. I was caught up in the fever.

Now I am getting to experience the bear. This has been an excellent experience for me.

If we are all lucky enough to see another bull market - if bitcoin does succeed (who knows?) - then I will be greatly prepared to capitalized off of it both ways.

I should have sold at 1100. I should have shorted all the way down.

I was too naive to do so and it cost me millions.  

Not anymore.

There is more suffering to come people. Bitcoin went up 3000% last year. 2014 is a year for pain.

If I were to guess, we are going to reach a point in the next 6 months where the very survival of bitcoin will come into question - not because if we drop to 260 or below that it actually means anything - but because people will perceive it to me so much - miners will panic, VCs will panic, companies will tout other altcoins.

And that will be the time to buy. Although, without China, we won't see 3000% annual gains anymore. That was a special case.

There is a quote... downtrend is over when the bulls become bears and the bears become bulls. And don't forget... objective bears already got their coins at 350$  

Yeah, yeah. Except I didnt become a bear yesterday or a month ago. And I'm fairly neutral now. So maybe you have another saying that goes something like this:

"When the bulls become bears for at least 6 weeks and then they turn neutral with a slightly bearish lean then..."

[podyx]

Was that quote in your sig really one of mine? lol


(for the record the 100k by 2014 was tongue in cheek. although I was in a good mood when I typed it )

Yes it was Sometime in 23rd november

[N12]

On that topic, someone (I forgot who) posted a misconception of sentiment during bear markets saying that once the sentiment swings bearish, a bear market is necessarily over.

Even though there can be brief and sharp capitulations where that is true, during a very prolonged bear market you'd expect the majority to become bearish sometime in the latter half. Generally a good deal of people enter a trend in the mid or toward the end, then start betting heavily and feel vindicated for a while. A good analogy for that is oversold/overbought indicators where if the indicator bounces off this area, it is bullish, but if it stays embedded, it's bearish until it leaves it. Historically for Bitcoin, most people were bearish months before the December 2011 low happened, and several price multiples higher.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cbeast]

It this the Final China Going Out Of Bitcoin Business Sale!

[JayJuanGee]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

 

 

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

Actually, Rpietila did NOT like that upside part of the bet, and regarding the downside of the bet (the $435), he was attempting to be so amorphous that NONE of us would likely be able to pin him down in any kind of way concerning to what he was betting... like trying to catch a well oiled lil piggy.

I was under the impression that Rpietila's initial statement was pretty unambiguous.  He said:  BTC will "NEVER" breach $435 again.  He felt so confident, and asked does anyone want to bet? 

But when he was called out for specifics and for an actual commitment to a bet, he weasled with the invention of conditions for the bet and suggested that it was NOT worth his time to make any kind of commitment to such a bet unless he was for sure going to make some money out of the deal or to get "odds" that were NOT part of the initial statement.

AS if everything that any of us does in this thread requires that we make money along the way.

Again, I could care less if someone is wrong about the future.. b/c we know that the future is difficult to predict - especially short-term.  He's got another problem, in these circumstances..... and I feel that I need NOT repeat myself again regarding this particular point and regarding his problem of lack of commitment, here.

[windjc]

On that topic, someone (I forgot who) posted a misconception of sentiment during bear markets saying that once the sentiment swings bearish, a bear market is necessarily over.

Even though there can be brief and sharp capitulations where that is true, during a very prolonged bear market you'd expect the majority to become bearish sometime in the latter half. Generally a good deal of people enter a trend in the mid or toward the end, then start betting heavily and feel vindicated for a while. A good analogy for that is oversold/overbought indicators where if the indicator bounces off this area, it is bullish, but if it stays embedded, it's bearish until it leaves it. Historically for Bitcoin, most people were bearish months before the December 2011 low happened, and several price multiples higher.

Yeah, this seems about right.

I think basing a top on sentiment is easier than basing a bottom. There is so much built in enthusiasm in bitcoin that the bearish lows can't naturally be as bearish and the bullish highs.

Most people, including myself, want the market to go up. Its natural to want it so.

I do not feel "vindicated" by being correct these last 6 weeks. These recovery from 340 to 550 in a few days was impressive.

But I feel like the towel is not rung out yet.

If I saw new money and investors coming in, if I didn't see miners extending their credit in hopes of not having to sell, if I saw new markets emerging right now, if I didn't see so much hopefullness that assumptions that 2014 is just playing out like 2013, then I would not be bear.

Its possible that the optimism of margin traders and the doubling down philosophy of bitcoin enthusiasts might be enough to keep us afloat until fundamentals can lift us upwards.

So I will trade lightly in this area. But there is the possibility that this could get ugly fast.

[windjc]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

wow! stamp at 425!
Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser!
Congratulations to rpietila!
Here's your trophy

 

 

He will likely still tie the bet (that was never confirmed)

Actually, Rpietila did NOT like that upside part of the bet, and regarding the downside of the bet (the $435), he was attempting to be so amorphous that NONE of us would likely be able to pin him down in any kind of way concerning to what he was betting... like trying to catch a well oiled lil piggy.

I was under the impression that Rpietila's initial statement was pretty unambiguous.  He said:  BTC will "NEVER" breach $435 again.  He felt so confident, and asked does anyone want to bet? 

But when he was called out for specifics and for an actual commitment to a bet, he weasled with the invention of conditions for the bet and suggested that it was NOT worth his time to make any kind of commitment to such a bet unless he was for sure going to make some money out of the deal or to get "odds" that were NOT part of the initial statement.

AS if everything that any of us does in this thread requires that we make money along the way.

Again, I could care less if someone is wrong about the future.. b/c we know that the future is difficult to predict - especially short-term.  He's got another problem, in these circumstances..... and I feel that I need NOT repeat myself again regarding this particular point and regarding his problem of lack of commitment, here.

I'd say thats a pretty accurate summation.

[JayJuanGee]

What the hell is going on over at Bitcoinwisdom? I still cannot see the updated Houbi chart.

And why is this happening to some people and not others?

I think that Bitcoinwisdom is out to get you with the belief that you are becoming too self-confident.  Bitcoinwisdom wants to put you in your place. by handicapping you.  It's like golf, if you get too good, then your handicap points are removed.  You are playing Bitcoinwisdom golf.   

[silverfuture]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joITmEr4SjY

 Bitcoin vs. Political Power: The Cryptocurrency Revolution - Stefan Molyneux at TNW Conference

[el_rlee]

It this the Final China Going Out Of Bitcoin Business Sale!

I hope it is. I seriously can't take any more crashes on China news.

[Dabs]

I'm still a bull. But then my views are greatly simplified.

[y3804]

Good news! NO FUD.

BTCChina:

http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotime

Small partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033

Who knows if it's true.

Human translation: Rumors about BTCChina suspending withdrawals are false. Recharge and withdrawals still working

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Good news! NO FUD.

BTCChina:

http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotime

Small partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033

A chinese guy on tradingview chat was telling me this yesterday. a lot of chinese are not concerned at all - after all, the chinese have declared that they cant ban it, dont have the authority to ban it, and dont wish to ban it. There will be a loop hole in the system for deposits somewhere. ill bet on it, seems like the chinese think so.

thanks for posting.

[windjc]

Good news! NO FUD.

BTCChina:

http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotime

Small partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033

So, everything is fine now, right?

[windjc]

Btw, Houbi's chart looks horrible. (Its finally working on bitcoinwisdom though!). We made new lows today and the 50% fib is acting like resistance. It seems almost inevitable that we see 2500 soon.

If there is no bad news in China why is Houbi breaking down through support?

I had to short some more. Just too obvious that we will see more downside.

Who knows, maybe I am wrong.