Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Oh man I am feeling so disillusioned with BTC at the moment just seems to be going one way and never comes back to the last consolidation/support level. Waiting for my break even price (if it ever comes) then I am outta here!!!

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

[windjc]

Some serious indecision on Houbi. I would guess its from three factors.

Money trying to get off exchanges.
Fresh money wanting to buy bitcoin "cheap" to try and usher in a new future after these exchanges get cut off (see Chinese gaming company that bought 40k)
Delusional traders who don't realize money is leaving exchanges and the exchange can't really rally past a certain point anymore and non-delusional traders who are trying to catch the ups and downs as the trend continues.

Note: this is all 100% speculation on my part.

[Davyd05]

Some serious indecision on Houbi. I would guess its from three factors.

Money trying to get off exchanges.
Fresh money wanting to buy bitcoin "cheap" to try and usher in a new future after these exchanges get cut off (see Chinese gaming company that bought 40k)
Delusional traders who don't realize money is leaving exchanges and the exchange can't really rally past a certain point anymore and non-delusional traders who are trying to catch the ups and downs as the trend continues.

Note: this is all 100% speculation on my part.

China is a proper way for the market to experience despair, and even more so to many traders that value China's buying pressure so highly. Let North America or Europe foster the next wave of buying pressure...China has too many problems to worry about with all them usd tbills

Edit: grammar, structure + Huobi seems to be bouncing of fibs on the 1 day charts

[rpietila]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

[TERA]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I am currently only 20% btc though. If I went 100% btc (like you probably are), it would be 3 figures also. It's kind of a misleading number because I could be 2% btc and have 5 figures, etc.

[freebit13]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I figured $0 is end-game for everyone, so didn't bother with negative values... it would be an interesting time when you'd actually be paying people to take bitcoin from you... I'd imagine it to be highly illegal (probably banned 500 times by China by then)

[billyjoeallen]

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry.  They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory.

Part of my issue, though, in your framing in competence and/or intelligence is that it seems to assume too much about the wealthy being competent or smart.  Just b/c someone has a lot of power and/or resources at his/her disposal and wants to engage in a large variety of strategies to maintain the status quo and to preserve that wealth and those resources does NOT mean that the person is smarter or more competent.. even though the one with the resources and wealth may win (in spite of not being smarter or more competent).

It's not an issue of intelligence. It's an issue of knowledge. Wise management of capital is a specialized skill and not all wealthy people qualify. Austrian economists make a careful distinction between those who actually create wealth and those who acquire it through other means. We place a greater importance on the difference between makers and takers than on the difference between rich and poor. To us, the lowliest laborer makes a more valuable contribution to the economy than the greatest redistributionist. We may even oppose the status quo more than you do, but we see the political class as the greatest impediment to efficient markets.

[TERA]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I figured $0 is end-game for everyone, so didn't bother with negative values... it would be an interesting time when you'd actually be paying people to take bitcoin from you... I'd imagine it to be highly illegal (probably banned 500 times by China by then)

Bitcoin is banned by the federal government and if you are caught owning bitcoin, you pay a fine of 2,500 per coin.

[freebit13]

Bitcoin is banned by the federal government and if you are caught owning bitcoin, you pay a fine of 2,500 per coin.

Bitcoin as a schedule 1 currency... lol... I suppose it is quite addictive

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jl2012]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I figured $0 is end-game for everyone, so didn't bother with negative values... it would be an interesting time when you'd actually be paying people to take bitcoin from you... I'd imagine it to be highly illegal (probably banned 500 times by China by then)

Bitcoin is banned by the federal government and if you are caught owning bitcoin, you pay a fine of 2,500 per coin.

The (US) federal gov has nothing to do for me

[dreamspark]

Me neither. Ban away.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't claim to be an expert in any of these various economic theories, but there seems to be some sense in what BJA is saying - apart from his having to feel some kind of irresistible urge to dish out insults regarding the competency and/or intelligence of regular people.

I do believe that the status quo wealthy will put up quite a bit of a battle in any redistribution of wealth attempts in order that redistribution of wealth is only minimum..

In other words the status quo wealthy use any tools at their disposal by hook or by crook to ensure that redistribution of wealth does NOT leave them hanging high and dry.  They may NOT be too successful with bitcoin b/c the train may leave some of them, but they are going to put up several obstacles along the way and secretly board at later stops.

I think it is quite possible bordering on probable that I am one of the incompetents I am referring to. It's not intended as an insult. It's just part of the theory.

Part of my issue, though, in your framing in competence and/or intelligence is that it seems to assume too much about the wealthy being competent or smart.  Just b/c someone has a lot of power and/or resources at his/her disposal and wants to engage in a large variety of strategies to maintain the status quo and to preserve that wealth and those resources does NOT mean that the person is smarter or more competent.. even though the one with the resources and wealth may win (in spite of not being smarter or more competent).

It's not an issue of intelligence. It's an issue of knowledge. Wise management of capital is a specialized skill and not all wealthy people qualify. Austrian economists make a careful distinction between those who actually create wealth and those who acquire it through other means. We place a greater importance on the difference between makers and takers than on the difference between rich and poor. To us, the lowliest laborer makes a more valuable contribution to the economy than the greatest redistributionist. We may even oppose the status quo more than you do, but we see the political class as the greatest impediment to efficient markets.

I agree with a lot of your points in this above post - except I do NOT really understand your framework to describe yourself as a part of the Austrian economist "we."     

You and I have engaged in discussions of several topics, and even through these limited experiences of mine, I have many doubts that your various intellectual positions are so circumscribed and/or disciplined as to fit within any particular school of thought, beyond the BJA for the day school of thought.  I could be wrong, but that is just my assessment.

Regarding your above implication of my stance on the status quo, I am neither for the status quo nor against it; however, I consider the status quo as a starting point in which anyone arguing opposition to such has the burden of proof and persuasion to establish why such departure from the status quo is the more prudent course of action and to outline a specific path(s) to guide us in our new direction away from the status quo.

[spooderman]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I figured $0 is end-game for everyone, so didn't bother with negative values... it would be an interesting time when you'd actually be paying people to take bitcoin from you... I'd imagine it to be highly illegal (probably banned 500 times by China by then)

Bitcoin is banned by the federal government and if you are caught owning bitcoin, you pay a fine of 2,500 per coin.

So knowledge of a private key becomes illegal.

Memory crime.

[soullyG]

Bitcoin is banned by the federal government and if you are caught owning bitcoin, you pay a fine of 2,500 per coin.

So knowledge of a private key becomes illegal.

Memory crime.

I feel like we've been through this before..

09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0

[rpietila]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I am currently only 20% btc though. If I went 100% btc (like you probably are), it would be 3 figures also. It's kind of a misleading number because I could be 2% btc and have 5 figures, etc.

I am closer to 50% than 100%, and all the time thinking of ways how to increase my stash (I don't need more money but cannot help it because I perceive this as the last life-changing buying opportunity for an ordinary guy). Perhaps somebody would like to buy PUT options for any maturity up to 90 days, any strike between 100-500 and any quantity up to BTC500? PM only.

[JayJuanGee]

My break-even price is $0, so I'm gonna be around here for a while  

My break even price is -($2500)

Congrats. Mine is only -(low 3 figures).

I am currently only 20% btc though. If I went 100% btc (like you probably are), it would be 3 figures also. It's kind of a misleading number because I could be 2% btc and have 5 figures, etc.

Actually, this is an interesting concept that really I never did consider too much in depth, and I can see why it would be useful. 

So for example, if a person owned 100BTC, and his/her average price per BTC were $500, then that means that s/he would, on paper, be in the red right now and would have invested $50K into BTC, but if he she cashed out would only be able to get around $44K.  12% in the red.

Scenario 2) If that same person had a zero cost per BTC, and s/he cashed out right now, then s/he would be about $44k ahead in fiat (though may be an oxymoron to say you are ahead, if in fiat)


Scenario 3) If that same person had a negative $1,000 cost per BTC, then s/he would have already been cashed out of $100k, and s/he cashed out of the remainder of his/her coins, then s/he would be about $144k "ahead" in fiat.

That is how I read being below zero in your cost per BTC - which means for every BTC you hold, you are profitable by the value of the BTC plus the price of the BTC multiplied by the average price per BTC ahead.

[MoreFun]

I am closer to 50% than 100%, and all the time thinking of ways how to increase my stash (I don't need more money but cannot help it because I perceive this as the last life-changing buying opportunity for an ordinary guy). Perhaps somebody would like to buy PUT options for any maturity up to 90 days, any strike between 100-500 and any quantity up to BTC500? PM only.

Why you don't margin trade then?

[JayJuanGee]

Oh man I am feeling so disillusioned with BTC at the moment just seems to be going one way and never comes back to the last consolidation/support level. Waiting for my break even price (if it ever comes) then I am outta here!!!

You are using a self defeating strategy that is impossible to win with.
1. If the downtrend continues, it will never reach your break even point while the downtrend is in force and you will hold on to a losing position indefinitely.
2. If your break even point is reached, that will mean that the downtrend has broken and it will be an uptrend, meaning it will be a terrible time to sell.

The only good moves are:
a. Commit to your position as a long term holding.
b. Sell now or at some point along the downtrend ceiling, taking a small loss. Then buy back later if/when the trend is confirmed to be reversed.

Thanks for the pick me up, I know what you are saying makes sense however my break even point ($575) seems so far away and just getting further everyday, in retrospect was a really stupid place to buy at but what is done is done.

I believe that I agree quite a bit with what Tera says in her response to you; however, it really sounds as if you over invested in BTC at the time that you invested or you do NOT have the stomach for investing in any potentially volatile assets.  Your state of mind, that comes through your writing, seems to indicate a potential for panic.... .. and what are you going to do if the price never goes back to $575?

Yet, if you pull out at $575 or $585 (in order to break even b/c of various administrative costs), then you will likely NOT have learned or become stronger from the situation - although maybe your lesson would have been that you learned about yourself and that you are NOT suited for certain kinds of investments?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation