Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

another day bites the dust.  and all seems well and stable enough... go  and prove me wrong whales

[kireinaha]

Thursday is most bullish day of week. Friday is the bear whale's favorite dump day, and then by Sunday we will be in the $570s... if we're lucky. Sorry to be pessimistic my good sirs, but when you've played this game as long as me, it happens.

[Newbie1022]

A three year banking relationship cut off over night with no news, no press release, no explanation, and in the wake of sputtering bids on the major exchange for the West. Ummm, sure, nothing big going on there. Jesus.

So, to recap:

Things going well:
(1) Major retailer adoptions;
(2) Some goof buying a ton of coins for more than he needs to on Huobi;
(3) ETFs galore coming to town soon;
(4) Chinese leveraging about to get really f---ing ridiculous (which is good for at least an initial spike)

Things not going well:
(1) Bitstamp, and Coinbase by association, just got really flaky really quickly with at least (and probably only) a temporary gap in liquidity should a true crisis ensue resulting;
(2) NY and Russian FUD fest;
(3) BTC-e's insurance on shorts are run identical to the NYSE in 1987;
(4) Bitfinex... lololololololololololololol

Summary of Expectations:
(1) Probably a slow and steady upward tick; BUT
(2) The exchanges seem to be more vulnerable to an outside shock than they've been in past years.

So, you'll either make a very modest amount in the next couple of weeks (speeding up to a rocket launch by mid-September) OR you will lose everything. Ummm, back to the f---ing sidelines I go.

[Newbie1022]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

[windjc]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

based on what?

[windjc]

Thursday is most bullish day of week. Friday is the bear whale's favorite dump day, and then by Sunday we will be in the $570s... if we're lucky. Sorry to be pessimistic my good sirs, but when you've played this game as long as me, it happens.

Actually someone ran the numbers a few months back and Thursday was historically the most bearish day.

[Newbie1022]

Thursday is most bullish day of week. Friday is the bear whale's favorite dump day, and then by Sunday we will be in the $570s... if we're lucky. Sorry to be pessimistic my good sirs, but when you've played this game as long as me, it happens.

Actually someone ran the numbers a few months back and Thursday was historically the most bearish day.

Truth. Lately, it has been Fridays, though. I think that is when one of the major retailers converts their coins to fiat. In the big picture, that's ok -- major adoption is a good thing and that is essentially just growing pains. They'll figure out how to more discretely unload and/or they might make provisions to keep their coins rather than cash them out (such as by, as some retailers are doing, offering their employees bonuses in Bitcoin). So, regardless, I would have expected some downward pressure tomorrow, but, again, in the big picture that is due to a really, really, really good thing.

[Newbie1022]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

based on what?

We'll get a small dip just because of retailer unloading (a good thing in the big picture, but not so good right now), the Bitstamp thing is going to spook people, and due to leveraging and everything else it could get a little ugly... at best, we'll be back to $580 tomorrow. At worst, we'll retest the recent low and might cave a little below it. I don't see an end of days scenario, but I expect a little blood. Then again, if the Huobi bull pulls back then we could fall off the table due to liquidity -- still, not banking on that.

[ensurance982]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

Quoting you. Just because it's such a bold prediction to predict such a thing in this rather boring and sideways-moving market! We'll get back to this in 48, I'd suggest

[windjc]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

based on what?

We'll get a small dip just because of retailer unloading (a good thing in the big picture, but not so good right now), the Bitstamp thing is going to spook people, and due to leveraging and everything else it could get a little ugly... at best, we'll be back to $580 tomorrow. At worst, we'll retest the recent low and might cave a little below it. I don't see an end of days scenario, but I expect a little blood. Then again, if the Huobi bull pulls back then we could fall off the table due to liquidity -- still, not banking on that.

Ummm. Your blowing this bitstamp thing out of proportion.

[Newbie1022]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

Quoting you. Just because it's such a bold prediction to predict such a thing in this rather boring and sideways-moving market! We'll get back to this in 48, I'd suggest

Well, making bold predictions spices things up if nothing else. I am 99% certain I haven't the slightest clue what I am talking about, but I've been right a lot lately which has been surprising even me. We'll definitely chat on it in 48. I'll prepare to take crow if I am wrong... prepare the gauntlet.

[tonico]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723392.0

Interesting. Stamp using two banks now. Based on post #8, the former bank, unicredit, may have stopped taking deposits. This partially explains why total bid sum is recovering slower than in the past. I.e., no new deposits and some traders withdrawing from unicredit while they still can.

Looks like unicredit wants to end its relationship with Stamp. How long will the new banking relationship with Raiffeisen last?

According to this memo Raiffeisen tells their people to stay away from Bitcoin.

[ensurance982]

A three year banking relationship cut off over night with no news, no press release, no explanation, and in the wake of sputtering bids on the major exchange for the West. Ummm, sure, nothing big going on there. Jesus.

So, to recap:

Things going well:
(1) Major retailer adoptions;
(2) Some goof buying a ton of coins for more than he needs to on Huobi;
(3) ETFs galore coming to town soon;
(4) Chinese leveraging about to get really f---ing ridiculous (which is good for at least an initial spike)

Things not going well:
(1) Bitstamp, and Coinbase by association, just got really flaky really quickly with at least (and probably only) a temporary gap in liquidity should a true crisis ensue resulting;
(2) NY and Russian FUD fest;
(3) BTC-e's insurance on shorts are run identical to the NYSE in 1987;
(4) Bitfinex... lololololololololololololol

Summary of Expectations:
(1) Probably a slow and steady upward tick; BUT
(2) The exchanges seem to be more vulnerable to an outside shock than they've been in past years.

So, you'll either make a very modest amount in the next couple of weeks (speeding up to a rocket launch by mid-September) OR you will lose everything. Ummm, back to the f---ing sidelines I go.

Yeah, times are getting interesting, yet the price hasn't quite decided yet. I've yet to see a substantial and bulletproof explanation why the credit bubble on Finex or BTC-e insurances may indeed pose are real risk to the rest of the BTC market, apart from those exchanges themselves.

[Newbie1022]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

based on what?

We'll get a small dip just because of retailer unloading (a good thing in the big picture, but not so good right now), the Bitstamp thing is going to spook people, and due to leveraging and everything else it could get a little ugly... at best, we'll be back to $580 tomorrow. At worst, we'll retest the recent low and might cave a little below it. I don't see an end of days scenario, but I expect a little blood. Then again, if the Huobi bull pulls back then we could fall off the table due to liquidity -- still, not banking on that.

Ummm. Your blowing this bitstamp thing out of proportion.

If we had a lot of liquidity and a strong buy sentiment, I'd think it would have no effect on prices whatsoever. But, bids are soft, retailers will whack us slightly tomorrow (I think), and longs have been in a slow burn for quite some time... I just don't think it will take as much as normal. We'll scope it out in a couple days.

[ensurance982]

Somebody should get the "it's unhappening" and "bloodbath" memes prepared for the next 24-hours. Book it. S--- is about to get real, real.

Mid-September will be phenomenal, though. Next 24 hours, though, I call bloodbath.

Quoting you. Just because it's such a bold prediction to predict such a thing in this rather boring and sideways-moving market! We'll get back to this in 48, I'd suggest

Well, making bold predictions spices things up if nothing else. I am 99% certain I haven't the slightest clue what I am talking about, but I've been right a lot lately which has been surprising even me. We'll definitely chat on it in 48. I'll prepare to take crow if I am wrong... prepare the gauntlet.

Yeah, this is what this forum is for, after all! Don't get me wrong, I'm not judging you for making those predictions, I just chime in into the speculation going on and predict that your forecast won't come true  Let's see who will be right!

[hyphymikey]

This is so predictable.

I sure hope this entity trying to keep the price in the 580s is making profit somehow, because someone is slowly bleeding the coins out of him.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

A three year banking relationship cut off over night with no news, no press release, no explanation, and in the wake of sputtering bids on the major exchange for the West. Ummm, sure, nothing big going on there. Jesus.

So, to recap:

Things going well:
(1) Major retailer adoptions;
(2) Some goof buying a ton of coins for more than he needs to on Huobi;
(3) ETFs galore coming to town soon;
(4) Chinese leveraging about to get really f---ing ridiculous (which is good for at least an initial spike)

Things not going well:
(1) Bitstamp, and Coinbase by association, just got really flaky really quickly with at least (and probably only) a temporary gap in liquidity should a true crisis ensue resulting;
(2) NY and Russian FUD fest;
(3) BTC-e's insurance on shorts are run identical to the NYSE in 1987;
(4) Bitfinex... lololololololololololololol

Summary of Expectations:
(1) Probably a slow and steady upward tick; BUT
(2) The exchanges seem to be more vulnerable to an outside shock than they've been in past years.

So, you'll either make a very modest amount in the next couple of weeks (speeding up to a rocket launch by mid-September) OR you will lose everything. Ummm, back to the f---ing sidelines I go.

Yeah, times are getting interesting, yet the price hasn't quite decided yet. I've yet to see a substantial and bulletproof explanation why the credit bubble on Finex or BTC-e insurances may indeed pose are real risk to the rest of the BTC market, apart from those exchanges themselves.

Well, Bitfinex will just freeze the market and probably roll back at least some trades if things get out of hand. BTC-e will probably let it play out, though... I have a fleeting suspicion they might even have to because Plus500 is a third party. Also, their business model doesn't depend on swaps like Bitfinex so they don't care who gets burnt (whereas the longs on Bitfinex are essentially too big to (totally) fail). So, if that's the case, then BTC-e looks like the NYSE during 1987 per Michael Lewis's "Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity" chronicled on pages 26 through 28. I will be the first to admit that this is a very tenuous and borderline bull---- source to be citing. But, gotta live a little.

Note, I am also making a huge assumption on Plus500's hedging strategy. They could possibly be hedging outside of the market... the Plus500 longs are, after all, referenced to but I believe separate from the market.

[Newbie1022]

A three year banking relationship cut off over night with no news, no press release, no explanation, and in the wake of sputtering bids on the major exchange for the West. Ummm, sure, nothing big going on there. Jesus.

So, to recap:

Things going well:
(1) Major retailer adoptions;
(2) Some goof buying a ton of coins for more than he needs to on Huobi;
(3) ETFs galore coming to town soon;
(4) Chinese leveraging about to get really f---ing ridiculous (which is good for at least an initial spike)

Things not going well:
(1) Bitstamp, and Coinbase by association, just got really flaky really quickly with at least (and probably only) a temporary gap in liquidity should a true crisis ensue resulting;
(2) NY and Russian FUD fest;
(3) BTC-e's insurance on shorts are run identical to the NYSE in 1987;
(4) Bitfinex... lololololololololololololol

Summary of Expectations:
(1) Probably a slow and steady upward tick; BUT
(2) The exchanges seem to be more vulnerable to an outside shock than they've been in past years.

So, you'll either make a very modest amount in the next couple of weeks (speeding up to a rocket launch by mid-September) OR you will lose everything. Ummm, back to the f---ing sidelines I go.

Yeah, times are getting interesting, yet the price hasn't quite decided yet. I've yet to see a substantial and bulletproof explanation why the credit bubble on Finex or BTC-e insurances may indeed pose are real risk to the rest of the BTC market, apart from those exchanges themselves.

Word! This makes things so much more fun! I love the spirit!