Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[paul2000]

Nobody talking Bitcoin means we are moving steadily towards capitulation. Maybe MasterLuc's prophecy is not a bad call. Be patient if you believe in this technology. Scream if you are just a speculator. Troll if you are a troll.

For me, it cannot become silent enough for Bitcoin. Eventually, the tide will change.

+1,000,000

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[Newbie1022]

This rally looks like it is ready to wilt. The wild card... and why trading with Bitcoin is such a nightmare is because there are too many atypical wild cards... BFX is about to run out of supply for shorts. This means that there is no countervailing force and the existing shorts could get squeezed out in the process.

[JayJuanGee]

i guess someone bought his own asks just to keep us involved

lol, you think someone is that fool and give free commission.
There was big order and it was eaten by others.

well then there were no fake walls and people with ~ 2000btc just got out

I think 500 btc might have been pulled.  3 orders were static, one order of 500 or 600 coins was being flashed at different prices every few minutes.  I did not see it get bought.

Remember, there were at least 3 attempts to break 500 before it succeeded, and then we fell to 470.  He sold coins expecting to buy them back at 430.  40USD drop...that will be roughly an 8% increase in coins in 24-48 hours if the pattern holds.

Good luck with that.  I am pretty doubtful, and maybe give less than 10% odds of $430 in 48 hours.

[JayJuanGee]

1 BTC = 100,000 $ when

5-10 years-ish.. maybe closer to 10 years at the rate this seems to have been going, recently.

[Newbie1022]

   Let's say we get to 500, first, there champ.

1 BTC = 100,000 $ when

5-10 years-ish.. maybe closer to 10 years at the rate this seems to have been going, recently.

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

The whole of this comment is so stupid that it is NOT worth responding to in a detailed manner, and really the comment reeks of someone who is talking his/her book.  If you do NOT believe in bitcoin anymore, then why don't you just sell all of it, and just walk away with whatever fiat you have remaining.  GOOD BYE.  Instead, no you are likely going to continue to stay here and talk your bullshit until such point that you will say that you bought back in.... possibly with more coins.. but if you get left by the choo choo, that would be even better carma to reward you for your apparently deceitful presentation.

Regarding the bold session above, good luck doubling your coins every 90 days or guaranteeing such.  I am pretty sure that you would NOT put your money where your mouth is b/c if you were to make such a bet that you can double your BTC stash in 90 days, the odds are pretty great that you would lose such a bet.

2nd step of loss and grief: anger

Identify the anger?  Where is it?

[Newbie1022]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

The whole of this comment is so stupid that it is NOT worth responding to in a detailed manner, and really the comment reeks of someone who is talking his/her book.  If you do NOT believe in bitcoin anymore, then why don't you just sell all of it, and just walk away with whatever fiat you have remaining.  GOOD BYE.  Instead, no you are likely going to continue to stay here and talk your bullshit until such point that you will say that you bought back in.... possibly with more coins.. but if you get left by the choo choo, that would be even better carma to reward you for your apparently deceitful presentation.

Regarding the bold session above, good luck doubling your coins every 90 days or guaranteeing such.  I am pretty sure that you would NOT put your money where your mouth is b/c if you were to make such a bet that you can double your BTC stash in 90 days, the odds are pretty great that you would lose such a bet.

2nd step of loss and grief: anger

Identify the anger?  Where is it?

We spotted you doing this, man.

[JorgeStolfi]

Fear not, Openbazaar is alive and kicking.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.

Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.

More than 90% of the transaction volume (transaction count and total BTC output) on the blockchain is "fake" -- that is, between addresses with the same owner. 

Prove that this statement is wrong.

(Evidence that it is correct: the way it has changed with time for the past year.)

[JorgeStolfi]

Don't drink and trade. 

[ShroomsKit]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

When we are at 400 those coins are expensive and you're gonna want your buy orders at 359 to be filled. Just like the rest who all want cheap coins till eternity. And guess what. At 350 there are cheap coins at 310.

How much longer will people like you be cheering and hoping for the Bitcoin market to become worthless? When is it enough for you? One day the buyers will stop buying and your cheap coins will be worthless.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

I do mind however the sometimes rather aggressive "anti trading" sentiment in here.

Where. On. Fuckin. Earth? should trading / price discovery / speculation be discussed if not on the Speculation subforum?

That's nothing different from other things. People have their firm opinion about one thing and another thing. Inconsistency does not matter there. Most people are not open minded enough for thought provoking impulses.

btw. RSI divergence.

This what you have in mind? Or something more short-term?

[Newbie1022]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

Toss in the 3-handles as well... we are only about 30 to 40 off from setting off margins. If even that much.

after that buy on bitfinex, I remain more or less positive that the large holders are milking people out.. and that leaves great buying opportunities for large money...look for no slippage...and I don't mean etf's gabi etc.. just people who buy on exchange with the extra fiat they feel is worth risking for this revolutionary idea.

I was thinking that for a while, as well... but look at the 4-hour chart. It be scary.

more crash incoming

Crash time

[Schickeria]

This what you have in mind? Or something more short-term?

No. The small bullish one on the right. I estimate we get a small bounce back to 490 - 500.

[empowering]

maybe it was GABI...
would be nice to see a little rise and a little bullishness again

Ah Gabi. The magical club of millionaires who will buy tons of bitcoins starting september one. Right.

whatttt?

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

I think everybody is just counting on Wall Street attempting to pump this puppy one more time, which they have the power to do, so they really might convince people that for some reason this time is different... and then wham!!! They'll take everyone who is still left over's lunch money. The question is whether this is the last pop before the lunch money gets stolen, not whether lunch money will be stolen.

You seem to be fairly pessimistic in this comment, Newbie.  You are suggesting that regular people may be able to profit from one more bubble, possibly (NOT for certain), but sooner or later we are all gonna get screwed by the involvement of wallstreet in this bitcoin thingy-ma-jiggy.

In my thinking you are exaggerating too greatly, and so long as some of us "early adopters" do NOT blink and we continue to accumulate BTC (just like wallstreet investors are doing - we are just doing it on a smaller scale), there are considerable possibilities that a lot of us HODLers are gonna profit greatly in the short-term pump and then probably there is going to be continued growth in the BTC space.

For example, nobody on wallstreet or even in the government or in big business gives a fuck if a few people (even hundreds of thousands) become extremely well off b/c of  their "stick-with-it-ness."  Let's say in the mid-1980, someone had invested in microsoft, when it was pennies, and they bought a few thousand dollars in shares.  NO one would give a fuck if they cashed out in 1999 with 5,000x profits.  Sure uncle sam is gonna want to take his cut from the gains, but that would NOT be as big of a problem as NOT having the gains.

In other words, paying tax on 5,000x gains would NOT be a bad problem to have.

Anybody simply holding is 50/50 likely to be fine.
Anybody on margin is f---ed. The Junta calls the prices... they have too many chips.
We are likely to start to see Martingale style behavior amongst those shorting like we saw on the longs... this will exacerbate the situation.
If you are trading, then you are just screwed and I have no problem saying that. If you are holding then it is a different game.

BUT, there are many broader issues as well... brand damage due to the manipulation, the availability of alternatives (the Apple IMoney is lame, but it will eat in heavily to the Newbie market), and the lameness of the offers by the large retailers.

Caveat to the Caveat... OpenBazaar may save us. We really could use a black market.

Don't attack everybody who is pessimistic on a personal level, bro. The market has spun up and down (mostly down), a lot of people have gotten whipsawed, and many of them are irritated by it. Let people vent.

I don't see where I have been attacking anyone on a personal level, whether they be pessimistic or NOT.

Yes, I may used strong language from time to time, but that is NOT the same as personal attacks - unless I have done so inadvertently, which is possible.. though I consciously attempt to avoid NON-substantive attacks... except maybe some joking, here and there.

My sense is that I merely attempt to go to the substance of the various arguments and to point out contradictions and to express irritation (from time to time) when people seem to be engaging in misleading posts in order to talk up their books.

Also, 5,000x gains... No. Just not happening. Maybe if the starting point is $1.

I was attempting to provide a non-bitcoin example of large scale profits (or at least the potential for such, for people who could have invested).  Bitcoin has also already experienced much more than 5,000x gains in its history. 

So far, I had NOT been commenting about whether another 5,000x gains are possible or probable, yet upon contemplations, I believe another 5,000x gains in BTC are possible, but do NOT seem to be very probable.  2x to 10x gains seem more probable and sustainable; however, 20 to 50x gains are NOT out of the range of reasonableness regarding calculating future expected value probabilities.

My main point was that regulators are NOT really gonna give a fuck, if people are able to eek out these kinds of profits from bitcoin, so long as they get their cut from the gains.

[Newbie1022]

Well... that was epic... see you all at 450.

[fonsie]

Got buy orders lined up all down the 400s. Go ahead. Make my day

When we are at 400 those coins are expensive and you're gonna want your buy orders at 359 to be filled. Just like the rest who all want cheap coins till eternity. And guess what. At 350 there are cheap coins at 310.

How much longer will people like you be cheering and hoping for the Bitcoin market to become worthless? When is it enough for you? One day the buyers will stop buying and your cheap coins will be worthless.

You are even more annoying than fallling.

[Teppino]

Fear not, Openbazaar is alive and kicking.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.

Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.

More than 90% of the transaction volume (transaction count and total BTC output) on the blockchain is "fake" -- that is, between addresses with the same owner. 

Prove that this statement is wrong.

(Evidence that it is correct: the way it has changed with time for the past year.)

Hi Jorge Maybe i'm not skilled enough in statistical analysys of blockchain to achieve such a proof (assuming i believe it's somehow important), but looking at your evidence i'd argue that neither you are.
Also, what is the point in wasting fees by transacting over wallets with the same owner? Unless you prove metcalfe's law wrong the only achievement of such waste is to keep the price (value) of bitcoin high, so i take it you mean it's a speculative manipulation.
Even so, with a true wallet-to-many scenario (OpenBazaar) the percentage you are proposing here are doomed to shift.

[empowering]