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Author Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]  (Read 878530 times)
iikun
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July 15, 2016, 04:42:02 AM
 #6741

So MK is now out on bail. A strict diet of probably little more than white rice has seen him lose quite a bit of weight judging by the photo.
I wonder if this is a sign that prosecutors are having trouble getting all their evidence together. Japanese police tend to still rely on confessions rather than "proving" a case in court so they tend to prepare like old Monty and build up an overwhelming case before bringing it to court. Obviously his release on bail is a sign the police are having trouble producing hard evidence of his guilt, strange as that may seem.
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DrApricot
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July 15, 2016, 08:11:05 AM
 #6742

In other words, why make such a huge fuss about liquidating MTGOX. Nobody gives a second thought to liquidating the TBTF banks. We just keep using them and hoping for the best.

yup... no one ever came up with a good story of exactly what happened.  most likely Mark stole them all and it going to wait it out. 

even if he has to spend 10 years in prison, in 10 years he comes out a multi billionaire.
So if that's the case, then the heavy-handed stuff obviously didn't work with Mark. Cut him a deal to reopen MtGox so everyone can get on with their business. He's smart enough to realize he can't steal everyone's coins and still get off completely scot-free. Let him keep 10% and have a get-out-of-jail-free card in exchange for giving up the rest of the stash. 10% should be plenty to keep Mark in frappuccinos and Tibanne in kitty treats for the rest of their lives.
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July 15, 2016, 06:28:36 PM
 #6743

So if that's the case, then the heavy-handed stuff obviously didn't work with Mark. Cut him a deal to reopen MtGox so everyone can get on with their business. He's smart enough to realize he can't steal everyone's coins and still get off completely scot-free. Let him keep 10% and have a get-out-of-jail-free card in exchange for giving up the rest of the stash. 10% should be plenty to keep Mark in frappuccinos and Tibanne in kitty treats for the rest of their lives.

Interesting thought; the real question here would be if you'd trust such a guy with your money / bitcoins ever again... I'd certainly prefer to burn them rather doing that. Grin

Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
zeta1
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July 16, 2016, 07:04:44 PM
 #6744

Blaming the disappearance of the MTGOX coins on an unknown hacker, or surmising that the private keys to the cold storage wallets have been lost or corrupted, or that some government has confiscated the coins without telling anyone about it stretches all credulity.

850,000 BTC supposed to be there
(minus)
202,000 BTC found in old format wallet
------------
648,000 BTC still missing

Using today's price in USD of approximately $625, the total value missing amounts to

648,000 * $625 equals    $405 million disappeard

Someone needs to provide a very good and believable explanation where these "missing funds" have gone.

After all of the investigation is said and done, and all this time that has past, it is unbelievable that those on the inside of this investigation don't already know exactly where the missing coins are; that is, if they ever existed in the first place. In case they never existed, then 202K is all that there ever were. That amount still yields 202,163 BTC (on hand) divided by 7,952 (approved claimants) which equals an average of 25.4 BTC per claimant that can be returned!

If some large bag holder has all the missing coins, and the trustee knows who it is, then maybe it would make sense to send whomsoever this person or entity may be an invoice, call this an account receivable or "asset", and simply open Mt. Gox back up. Sure it would be operating on a fractional reserve, but it would actually be more secure than most banks today since it would have a (202K / 850K) * 100 reserve ratio or 23.75% whereas most fiat banks like Citibank, Mizuho and Deutsche all operate on 10% or less reserve.

In other words, why make such a huge fuss about liquidating MTGOX. Nobody gives a second thought to liquidating the TBTF banks. We just keep using them and hoping for the best.

yup... no one ever came up with a good story of exactly what happened.  most likely Mark stole them all and it going to wait it out. 

even if he has to spend 10 years in prison, in 10 years he comes out a multi billionaire.

What I find really weird is that MAJOR parties are working on finding out what happenened, but still we don't get a good answer. Japanese Police, Kraken, Deloitte, Tohmatsu LLC, ReEx Accounting Firm. I mean come on WTF?
zeta1
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July 16, 2016, 07:07:34 PM
 #6745

And how much are these firms getting paid!?
mayax
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July 16, 2016, 07:59:04 PM
 #6746

Blaming the disappearance of the MTGOX coins on an unknown hacker, or surmising that the private keys to the cold storage wallets have been lost or corrupted, or that some government has confiscated the coins without telling anyone about it stretches all credulity.

850,000 BTC supposed to be there
(minus)
202,000 BTC found in old format wallet
------------
648,000 BTC still missing

Using today's price in USD of approximately $625, the total value missing amounts to

648,000 * $625 equals    $405 million disappeard

Someone needs to provide a very good and believable explanation where these "missing funds" have gone.

After all of the investigation is said and done, and all this time that has past, it is unbelievable that those on the inside of this investigation don't already know exactly where the missing coins are; that is, if they ever existed in the first place. In case they never existed, then 202K is all that there ever were. That amount still yields 202,163 BTC (on hand) divided by 7,952 (approved claimants) which equals an average of 25.4 BTC per claimant that can be returned!

If some large bag holder has all the missing coins, and the trustee knows who it is, then maybe it would make sense to send whomsoever this person or entity may be an invoice, call this an account receivable or "asset", and simply open Mt. Gox back up. Sure it would be operating on a fractional reserve, but it would actually be more secure than most banks today since it would have a (202K / 850K) * 100 reserve ratio or 23.75% whereas most fiat banks like Citibank, Mizuho and Deutsche all operate on 10% or less reserve.

In other words, why make such a huge fuss about liquidating MTGOX. Nobody gives a second thought to liquidating the TBTF banks. We just keep using them and hoping for the best.

yup... no one ever came up with a good story of exactly what happened.  most likely Mark stole them all and it going to wait it out. 

even if he has to spend 10 years in prison, in 10 years he comes out a multi billionaire.

What I find really weird is that MAJOR parties are working on finding out what happenened, but still we don't get a good answer. Japanese Police, Kraken, Deloitte, Tohmatsu LLC, ReEx Accounting Firm. I mean come on WTF?

it's SO FUNNY. An unlicensed company(so, I company who run illegally), Kraken, is taking care of others funds. LOL . This the Bitcoin's world. Smiley

iikun
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July 17, 2016, 03:11:45 AM
 #6747

Blaming the disappearance of the MTGOX coins on an unknown hacker, or surmising that the private keys to the cold storage wallets have been lost or corrupted, or that some government has confiscated the coins without telling anyone about it stretches all credulity.

850,000 BTC supposed to be there
(minus)
202,000 BTC found in old format wallet
------------
648,000 BTC still missing

Using today's price in USD of approximately $625, the total value missing amounts to

648,000 * $625 equals    $405 million disappeard

Someone needs to provide a very good and believable explanation where these "missing funds" have gone.

After all of the investigation is said and done, and all this time that has past, it is unbelievable that those on the inside of this investigation don't already know exactly where the missing coins are; that is, if they ever existed in the first place. In case they never existed, then 202K is all that there ever were. That amount still yields 202,163 BTC (on hand) divided by 7,952 (approved claimants) which equals an average of 25.4 BTC per claimant that can be returned!

If some large bag holder has all the missing coins, and the trustee knows who it is, then maybe it would make sense to send whomsoever this person or entity may be an invoice, call this an account receivable or "asset", and simply open Mt. Gox back up. Sure it would be operating on a fractional reserve, but it would actually be more secure than most banks today since it would have a (202K / 850K) * 100 reserve ratio or 23.75% whereas most fiat banks like Citibank, Mizuho and Deutsche all operate on 10% or less reserve.

In other words, why make such a huge fuss about liquidating MTGOX. Nobody gives a second thought to liquidating the TBTF banks. We just keep using them and hoping for the best.

yup... no one ever came up with a good story of exactly what happened.  most likely Mark stole them all and it going to wait it out. 

even if he has to spend 10 years in prison, in 10 years he comes out a multi billionaire.

What I find really weird is that MAJOR parties are working on finding out what happenened, but still we don't get a good answer. Japanese Police, Kraken, Deloitte, Tohmatsu LLC, ReEx Accounting Firm. I mean come on WTF?

it's SO FUNNY. An unlicensed company(so, I company who run illegally), Kraken, is taking care of others funds. LOL . This the Bitcoin's world. Smiley

In what way do you mean unlicensed?  That they don't operate in NYC and so haven't applied for a Bitlicense?  If so, that's a weak argument.
If other, please clarify your meaning
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July 17, 2016, 05:36:15 AM
 #6748

So if that's the case, then the heavy-handed stuff obviously didn't work with Mark. Cut him a deal to reopen MtGox so everyone can get on with their business. He's smart enough to realize he can't steal everyone's coins and still get off completely scot-free. Let him keep 10% and have a get-out-of-jail-free card in exchange for giving up the rest of the stash. 10% should be plenty to keep Mark in frappuccinos and Tibanne in kitty treats for the rest of their lives.

Interesting thought; the real question here would be if you'd trust such a guy with your money / bitcoins ever again... I'd certainly prefer to burn them rather doing that. Grin
If he's as guilty as most people surmise and has an IQ above room temperature, which he does, then he'll simply take his 10% and run. Plastic surgery could compliment his new more svelte appearance so that he'll be able to enjoy his winnings in unchallenged obscurity. Purple or chartreuse highlights could help disguise Tibanne.
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July 20, 2016, 04:42:21 PM
Last edit: July 20, 2016, 05:00:27 PM by DrApricot
 #6749



even if he has to spend 10 years in prison, in 10 years he comes out a multi billionaire.

What I find really weird is that MAJOR parties are working on finding out what happenened, but still we don't get a good answer. Japanese Police, Kraken, Deloitte, Tohmatsu LLC, ReEx Accounting Firm. I mean come on WTF?
There is a rumour going around https://forum.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-discussion/mark-karpeles-former-mtgox-ceo-out-of-jail-t9322.html#p26459 that the Tokyo police tried to get Mark to sign a confession that he is Satoshi Nakamoto. Why would they ever think he is Satoshi unless they also believed the missing 650,000 BTC from MtGox were from Satoshi's early mining efforts and actually belong to him? Given this scenario, was it Mark (aka "Satoshi") who got hacked and not so much MtGox users? For the record, I don't think Mark could have been Satoshi. Nevertheless, the missing 650K BTC could have been Satoshi's.
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July 20, 2016, 04:48:56 PM
 #6750

Nevertheless, the missing 650K BTC might might have been Satoshi's.

It's very unlikely that Satoshi would store any of his BTC on an exchange where he was not in control of the keys...
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July 21, 2016, 03:07:11 AM
Last edit: July 21, 2016, 03:54:13 AM by DrApricot
 #6751

Nevertheless, the missing 650K BTC might might have been Satoshi's.

It's very unlikely that Satoshi would store any of his BTC on an exchange where he was not in control of the keys...
Common sense dictates that the person or group named Satoshi Nakamoto would never trust someone else with the means of moving his (their) stash, so does that not lead to a conclusion Mark Karpeles must be Satoshi, since he would of course trust himself?

Even Craig Wright or Dave Kleiman seem a lot more believable to me than Mark for a Satoshi role. The amount is virtually the same: 648,000 BTC declared missing from MtGox  vs. 650,000 BTC withdrawn from the Seychelles trust by Craig.

As mentioned in the LRB article http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n13/andrew-ohagan/the-satoshi-affair, Craig was planning to use these funds to pay for his "research and development stuff." It seems natural that an exchange like MtGox would be chosen to trade them all for fiat. Craig claims to have lost a "large wallet" when the exchange went down.

While it seems counter-intuitive since we were first told MtGox had a ginormous number of users, yet by May 25 of this year only 24,750 creditors had ever bothered to files claims: 9,863 of these were bitcoin-only claims, and 7,952 bitcoin claimants were subsequently approved by the trustee, yielding an average of 25.4 BTC per claimant.

The worldwide number of users, at least those of whom could pass muster with the trustee, is a far smaller one than early media accounts of the collapse led everyone to believe--amounting to merely a few thousand people instead of tens or hundreds of thousands.  Given this much smaller world of actual depositors who had funded accounts of any significance and verifiability, then is it too big of a stretch to believe that the missing 648,000 BTC may have belonged to a very small and select group or perhaps even to only one person?
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July 21, 2016, 06:26:42 AM
 #6752

Even Craig Wright or Dave Kleiman seem a lot more believable to me than Mark for a Satoshi role. The amount is virtually the same: 648,000 BTC declared missing from MtGox  vs. 650,000 BTC withdrawn from the Seychelles trust by Craig.

As mentioned in the LRB article http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n13/andrew-ohagan/the-satoshi-affair, Craig was planning to use these funds to pay for his "research and development stuff." It seems natural that an exchange like MtGox would be chosen to trade them all for fiat. Craig claims to have lost a "large wallet" when the exchange went down.

If you want to convert BTC 650k into fiat then it makes no sense to dump everything onto one exchange, as none of the exchanges has/had the liquidity to handle such a volume...
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July 21, 2016, 09:47:47 AM
 #6753

MK is not Satoshi. Those who pay attention already know the answer to the riddle "who SN is". It's all in the web (DrApricot posted a relative link above), but for various reasons people chose not to acknowledge. FYI, Japan probably has the most strict policy against fraudulent behavior and the highest conviction rates. Letting MK walk may well prove his incompetence and certainly rules out his participation in confiscating the funds.

Only one thing is certain. This story is not over yet.  Roll Eyes

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July 23, 2016, 08:38:50 PM
 #6754

It seems very unlickely that MK is Satoshi
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July 23, 2016, 08:48:58 PM
 #6755

Doesnt Japan have alot of company fraud of some type.   Like the deal with the olympus scandal and Michael Woodford who was fired after he objected to the cover up and dodgy accounting basically.  he raised it publicly but little was done immediately as he was seen as causing the problem

Some people got a few years jail eventually, sums involved, lost were something like 600m $ I think

Quote
Woodford stated his concerns that, far from learning from the scandal, Japan's response was to become even more secretive and unsupportive of change in areas highlighted by the scandal.[88]

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July 25, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
 #6756

Doesnt Japan have alot of company fraud of some type.   Like the deal with the olympus scandal and Michael Woodford who was fired after he objected to the cover up and dodgy accounting basically.  he raised it publicly but little was done immediately as he was seen as causing the problem

Some people got a few years jail eventually, sums involved, lost were something like 600m $ I think

Quote
Woodford stated his concerns that, far from learning from the scandal, Japan's response was to become even more secretive and unsupportive of change in areas highlighted by the scandal.[88]
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/11/27/japan-s-mega-banks-have-mega-yakuza-trouble.html Mizuho Bank--I may have heard of them before.
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August 20, 2016, 12:23:04 PM
 #6757

what is your point on that?

Look at the data - most heists are very small. However, there are three heists that are very large. It is kind of like a puzzle, and fortunately for us, the pieces are SO BIG and there are SO FEW that it seems to be fairly easy to start to put the pieces together.

 850,000    Total MtGox loss according to rumors (I've never seen this as an official number).
 744,405    Total MtGox loss according to Leaked Emergency Plan.

 171,995    Amount lost on Bitcoin Savings and Trust.
 263,024    Amount Seized from Silk Road by DHS.
 207,000    Amount of MtGox Suddenly "Found".
642,019  Sum of the three amounts above.

624,408    Amount of MtGox customers' coins that are "temporarily unavailable".

All three of these events; Bitcoin Savings and Trust, Silk Road, and MtGox are tied together.

All of the people closest to both sides are not saying a thing:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=871094.0;topicseen

Negotiations are happening behind the scenes. DHS, FBI, CIA, NSA or some other government agency from the US started seizing hardware and coins, but a handful of people at MtGox managed to protect a good portion of the coins by accidentally losing them. MtGox depositors got impatient, and Karpeles was forced to declare insolvency to protect himself from government officials that might have been a little over zealous. There may have been some "illegal" activities happening to protect the remaining Bitcoin, but it was viewed as justified because the prior seizures themselves are arguably "illegal". Irrational people on both sides did a lot of name calling, and over time, both sides realized how bad this looks for both sides. So, again, negotiations are happening. Seized and sold bitcoins are being "recovered" through drop and shop techniques on the market, pushing exchange rates down and grabbing BTC when possible. Eventually Kraken will announce that it is returning the the Bitcoin to early adopter Bitcoin users that never did a damn thing to deserve this from any of the parties involved.

Okay, so this last line is hopeful conjecture, but if it doesn't go down like this, it will be a major stain on all parties involved. If it does end like this, some of those moon travelers out there might get to put their suits on early.


Edit: if someone would like to footnote and provide sources for my numbers above, that would be nice for the community. I was going to but am a bit tired. Maybe another day.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4yl7do/mt_gox_might_have_been_insolvent_as_early_as_july/
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September 16, 2016, 09:44:50 PM
 #6758

what is your point on that?

 Seized and sold bitcoins are being "recovered" through drop and shop techniques on the market, pushing exchange rates down and grabbing BTC when possible.



https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4yl7do/mt_gox_might_have_been_insolvent_as_early_as_july/


What do you think the source of funds could be for this replacement (recovery) buying? Could it have come from exchanging the bitcoins purchased by Willy and Markus bots during the November, 2013 price spike for fiat? If so, that implies someone all this time must have been sitting on a rather large pile of fiat from those proceeds. I have seen in another forum speculation that these funds have been frozen by the Chinese government. This is really beginning to sound like the plotline for a Mr. Robot episode.
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September 18, 2016, 09:13:41 PM
 #6759

what is your point on that?

 Seized and sold bitcoins are being "recovered" through drop and shop techniques on the market, pushing exchange rates down and grabbing BTC when possible.



https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4yl7do/mt_gox_might_have_been_insolvent_as_early_as_july/


What do you think the source of funds could be for this replacement (recovery) buying? Could it have come from exchanging the bitcoins purchased by Willy and Markus bots during the November, 2013 price spike for fiat? If so, that implies someone all this time must have been sitting on a rather large pile of fiat from those proceeds. I have seen in another forum speculation that these funds have been frozen by the Chinese government. This is really beginning to sound like the plotline for a Mr. Robot episode.

Oh wow. Been a while since I wrote that. The buy back was more of wishful thinking than a belief. However, I was thinking an investor wanting to help Bitcoin succeed. Someone wishing to breath life back into MtGox. Or possibly those that made the error bringing it down in the first place.

I recall there was speculation involving China. I thought it was BTC that was stuck there, but I may very well be wrong. Conspiracy theory: to spread BTC to China, an event like this had to occur, whether dollars or BTC were seized. There was not much activity there prior.

Edit: clarity
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September 22, 2016, 02:09:02 PM
 #6760

Any news yet about the paying out yet? Heard that there would be some progress in September?
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