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Author Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]  (Read 879590 times)
gonzx
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September 01, 2014, 11:20:42 PM
 #6101


"A día de hoy no se sabe el porcentaje de recuperación, como tampoco se sabe la forma en la que se devolverán las cantidades (dinero de curso legal o BTC). Con todo, hay que tener en cuenta que la ley japonesa obliga a la devolución en yenes, aunque el Juez respondió que dadas las peculiaridades del caso quizás se pueda realizar de otra forma."

Google translate:

"Today is not the recovery rate is known, nor the way in which the quantities (legal tender or BTC) is known be returned. However, keep in mind that Japanese law compels the return yen, although the judge responded that given the peculiarities of the case perhaps can be made otherwise."

http://afectadosmtgox.blogspot.com.ar/
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JorgeStolfi
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September 02, 2014, 12:01:45 AM
 #6102

"Today is not the recovery rate is known, nor the way in which the quantities (legal tender or BTC) is known be returned. However, keep in mind that Japanese law compels the return yen, although the judge responded that given the peculiarities of the case perhaps can be made otherwise."

http://afectadosmtgox.blogspot.com.ar/
I saw that detail in several other posts.  However I believe that he actually said something closer to "we may look into it".  But in Japanese culture (the old-fashioned one at least)  a flat-out "no" is considered too rude, and that phrase could be just a polite way of avoiding to say "we do not intend to" (which would probably have elicited some angry responses from the crowd).

Anyway, that is not the question I asked.  The question is how the claims of each client are to be computed: by the balances in the final MtGOX ledger, or by deposits minus withdawals.  Whether the recovered amounts are returned in BTC or yen is an independent decision.

From the point of the courts, using the MtGOX ledger seems dicey.  One problem is that there may be no way to ensure that the ledger has not been tampered with, or even that the accounts belong to the claimants.  Whereas, the money deposits and withdrawals can be certified by the banks, and those in BTC can be partially verified in the blockchain.

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September 02, 2014, 12:17:04 AM
 #6103

"Today is not the recovery rate is known, nor the way in which the quantities (legal tender or BTC) is known be returned. However, keep in mind that Japanese law compels the return yen, although the judge responded that given the peculiarities of the case perhaps can be made otherwise."

http://afectadosmtgox.blogspot.com.ar/
I saw that detail in several other posts.  However I believe that he actually said something closer to "we may look into it".  But in Japanese culture (the old-fashioned one at least)  a flat-out "no" is considered too rude, and that phrase could be just a polite way of avoiding to say "we do not intend to" (which would probably have elicited some angry responses from the crowd).

Anyway, that is not the question I asked.  The question is how the claims of each client are to be computed: by the balances in the final MtGOX ledger, or by deposits minus withdawals.  Whether the recovered amounts are returned in BTC or yen is an independent decision.

From the point of the courts, using the MtGOX ledger seems dicey.  One problem is that there may be no way to ensure that the ledger has not been tampered with, or even that the accounts belong to the claimants.  Whereas, the money deposits and withdrawals can be certified by the banks, and those in BTC can be partially verified in the blockchain.


Also it's hillarious that previous customers needs to identify themselves to get access to their funds. Lots of accounts are already verified. God knows where all the ID-papers are today...
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September 02, 2014, 02:28:04 AM
 #6104

Also it's hillarious that previous customers needs to identify themselves to get access to their funds. Lots of accounts are already verified. God knows where all the ID-papers are today...

I don't see why it is hilarious.  How could the court return the spoils to the clients, without knowing who they are?

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September 02, 2014, 05:56:20 AM
 #6105

Also it's hillarious that previous customers needs to identify themselves to get access to their funds. Lots of accounts are already verified. God knows where all the ID-papers are today...

I don't see why it is hilarious.  How could the court return the spoils to the clients, without knowing who they are?

Asking them to sign a message with a known Bitcoin deposit address perhaps
If the court has access to the deposit logs in user accounts should be possible to get that done
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September 02, 2014, 06:14:16 AM
 #6106

Asking them to sign a message with a known Bitcoin deposit address perhaps
If the court has access to the deposit logs in user accounts should be possible to get that done
Why would the court want to send money (or bitcoins) to someone without knowing his identity?

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September 02, 2014, 07:36:01 PM
 #6107

Asking them to sign a message with a known Bitcoin deposit address perhaps
If the court has access to the deposit logs in user accounts should be possible to get that done
Why would the court want to send money (or bitcoins) to someone without knowing his identity?


Yeah, this will never happen in Japan. You need to remember this is a country where a signature is valued less than a rubber stamp (yes, which anyone can order to be made), I can't see the authorities ever allowing identification to be on anything other than physical paper. Japan seems high tech from the outside but Govt offices & banks seriously live in the 70s/80s with regards to record keeping.
Despite Kobayashi's inferences I also think there will be difficulty in distributing BTC under the legal system unless a claimants BTC address is included on the claim form. Only in that case could I possibly see some hope for that. Otherwise we may well see an auction similar to Silk Road, and a yen or USD figure then attached to claimants BTC holdings as at the time of bankruptcy filing or Gox's final trade. (most likely bankruptcy filing).
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September 03, 2014, 06:50:32 PM
 #6108

We have already discussed this point on Gox Self-help some time ago. It has been shown that probably a majority favor the "last balance" solution. This also fits well with your assessment. We had agreed so far:

"The remaining assets in Bitcoins should be distributed to creditors
proportionately to their final Bitcoin balance (as seen on mtgox.com).
The remaining assets in legal currency (FIAT) should be distributed to
creditors proportionately to their final currency balance (as seen on
mtgox.com)."

https://wiki.olivere.de/goxwiki/ClaimsGoxSelfHelp
(Auth needed)

There are a lot pro and cons but overall - I think - every other solution would be much more complicated and would be perceived as unfair by the most people. That will not fly by. People want the 200,000 coins divided fair. People want there money and Bitcoin is money.

The problem is that the client's opinion may not be relevant, if there are laws/precedents that determine how claims are assessed.  If the law says to use method X, and one client tells Kobayashi that he prefers method X, it will almost certainly be method X.  Even if all clients say that they prefer method Y, Kobayashy may say, "sorry, I must follow the law and use method X; thereafter you get together and re-distribute the spoils among yurselves as you like".

That question should be posed to Japanese bankruptcy lawyers and/or to Mt. Kobayashi.  Didn't any clients retain Japanese lawyers to advise/represent them at the meeting?

Some have done this, but I have no contact. I'm not interested in sophisticated confrontations like this. In this game we will always lose. I'm sure. We have other (legal) weapons, because we are a very big group. If they will embezzle the available Coins, we are going to track these coins. I personally will not accept them as payment and I'm sure many other victims will do the same. Even if only some of the victims are not accepting these coins they became more and more worthless, because people will avoid to mix these coins with their good money. There are many, many victims who don't like to accept their own money as payment. Bankruptcy lawyers and other people are used to deal with fungible values and things they can hide​​. If they try to deduct us, they will learn their lesson for sure. We do not need lawyers for this.

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September 03, 2014, 10:11:59 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2014, 10:22:16 PM by DrApricot
 #6109

One important question that I have yet to see answered is how the claims are to be computed.
In FIAT currency I have lost nothing. I think many have a similar position. But the lost Bitcoins hurt me very much. I'll fight like a tiger for my coins. You'll see.
From the point of the courts, using the MtGOX ledger seems dicey.  One problem is that there may be no way to ensure that the ledger has not been tampered with, or even that the accounts belong to the claimants.  Whereas, the money deposits and withdrawals can be certified by the banks, and those in BTC can be partially verified in the blockchain.
If they try to deduct us, they will learn their lesson for sure. We do not need lawyers for this.
I admire the questioning attitude regarding the ledger, and the "we don't need no stinkin' lawyers" fighting spirit. However, what is the elephant hiding in the room? It's not whether there are tainted gox coins or not, or whether "the spoils" are to be distributed in Yen or bitcoins. It's the proportional amount.

How do you calculate a proportion? If 200K out of 850K BTC have been found, then you need to divide the first number by the second one and get .235 or 23.5%.

We only have the word of the original Mt. Gox bankruptcy filing at the end of February, 2014 that there were ever 850,000 bitcoins. This filing also blamed the collapse on the transaction malleability bug, which at this point is more or less a proven lie. So, my question is why do we trust this filing so far as the improbably large number of bitcoins supposedly held?

Mark Karpels has stated in June, that he does not believe any more than the 200,000 bitcoins will ever be recovered. The only way he could be so certain is if he knows there were never more than 200,000 bitcoins. If this is the case, the proportion is 100%, not 23.5%, and the bitcoins could be returned more or less immediately to the original owners.

The story about hackers or rogue traders making off with 650K bitcoins is completely unsubstantiated. gox-self-helpers need to pressure the authorities to document any supposed bitcoin losses in order to know whether or not they are valid.
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September 03, 2014, 11:33:12 PM
 #6110

The problem is that the client's opinion may not be relevant, if there are laws/precedents that determine how claims are assessed.  If the law says to use method X, and one client tells Kobayashi that he prefers method X, it will almost certainly be method X.  Even if all clients say that they prefer method Y, Kobayashy may say, "sorry, I must follow the law and use method X; thereafter you get together and re-distribute the spoils among yurselves as you like".

That question should be posed to Japanese bankruptcy lawyers and/or to Mt. Kobayashi.  Didn't any clients retain Japanese lawyers to advise/represent them at the meeting?

Some have done this, but I have no contact. I'm not interested in sophisticated confrontations like this. In this game we will always lose. I'm sure. We have other (legal) weapons, because we are a very big group. If they will embezzle the available Coins, we are going to track these coins. I personally will not accept them as payment and I'm sure many other victims will do the same. Even if only some of the victims are not accepting these coins they became more and more worthless, because people will avoid to mix these coins with their good money. There are many, many victims who don't like to accept their own money as payment. Bankruptcy lawyers and other people are used to deal with fungible values and things they can hide​​. If they try to deduct us, they will learn their lesson for sure. We do not need lawyers for this.

Sorry, I am not sure I understand what you mean.

The 600'000+ bitcoins that were stolen/embezzled should be considered lost, unless by some miracle the thief is identified, caught by the police, prosecuted, and persuaded to return the coins.  Kobayashi may ask the police to investigate the theft, if he has not done so; but that is not his job, and the bankruptcy proceedings will be closed well before the police investigation is complete.  If said miracle occurs and those coins are recovered, the proceedings may perhaps be reopened to distribute them; but it is no use to discuss that possibility now.

So, the best you will get back, in the foreseeable future, is 1/4 of what you have lost.

Kobayashi was appointed by the court to figure out what is left of MtGOX's assets, collect the claims by the clients, validate those claims, and distribute among them those remaining assets -- mainly 200'000+ bitcoins and a couple million dollars, that were still in possession of MtGOX and that he has now legally taken custody of.  He will obviously charge his fees for doing that non-trivial task (and for the consultants that he needs to hire), but plenty will be left over.

No one can get any of those coins without his agreement and the approval by the japanese court.   Attempts to do so would be theft and worse, so don't even think about it.

IMHO, the first thing you all should do is to find out how the claims are going to be computed; if that is not decided yet, how much freedom the Japanese law allows.  (There are principles of openness and fairness to all claimants, whether bitcoins and money can be accounted separately, etc. which may constrain the method even if the law does not determine it.)  Note, again, that your preferences are not relevant, unless Kobayashi and the court choose to consider them.  Note also that, depending on the accounting method chosen, the amount you may claim may be a million dollars, or may be zero.

If you are reasonably certain that you are entitled to a large sum, I belive that it pays to hire a Japanese lawyer, at least for basic advice.  If your expected refund is not that large, maybe you should join a group and hire a lawyer as a group.  Do not try to understand the laws without a lawyer.   Heed the old saying, "he who chooses to be his own lawyer has a fool for client and an idiot for lawyer."  Think of them as medical doctors: they may be greedy bastards, but if you need them, you have to use them.

Finally, some "legal" advice: when dealing with the law or lawyers, it helps a lot to wear a decent business suit and tie.  Not a social jacket & pants, not party-animal uniform, not a young-silicon-valley-genius t-shirt, not a I'm-camping-in-the-public-park stye outdoor clothing.  It sounds stupid, I know, but the universe is an incredibly stupid place.

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September 03, 2014, 11:49:45 PM
 #6111

How do you calculate a proportion? If 200K out of 850K BTC have been found, then you need to divide the first number by the second one and get .235 or 23.5%.

Perhaps I did not get my point across yet. 

Joe Coiner deposited 100 BTC into MtGOX when they were worth 50$ each.   Since then, he traded them with such skill that, when MtGOX collapsed, he thought that he had 1000 BTC in his account, which at the time were worth 800$ each.

Bill Bitter, on the other hand, deposited 1000 BTC at the same time as Joe, but then traded so clumsily that he belived that he had only 100 BTC left at the end.

By method X of computing claims, Joe's claim is 100x50 = 5000$, while Bill's is 1000x50 = 50'000$.   So Bill will get 10x as much as Joe from Mr. Kobayashi.

By the other method Y, Joe's claim is 1000x800 = 800'000$, and Bill's claim is 100x800 = 80'000$.  So its is Joe who will get 10x as much as Bill.

Method X was used by the US courts when processing the claims of Madoff's victims, and someone claimed that it is the standard procedure in japan too. 

So, obviously, the first thing you all need to do is find out whether Kobayashi will use method X, method Y, or some other method.

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September 04, 2014, 05:29:42 AM
 #6112

How do you calculate a proportion? If 200K out of 850K BTC have been found, then you need to divide the first number by the second one and get .235 or 23.5%.

Perhaps I did not get my point across yet. 

Joe Coiner deposited 100 BTC into MtGOX when they were worth 50$ each.   Since then, he traded them with such skill that, when MtGOX collapsed, he thought that he had 1000 BTC in his account, which at the time were worth 800$ each.

Bill Bitter, on the other hand, deposited 1000 BTC at the same time as Joe, but then traded so clumsily that he belived that he had only 100 BTC left at the end.

By method X of computing claims, Joe's claim is 100x50 = 5000$, while Bill's is 1000x50 = 50'000$.   So Bill will get 10x as much as Joe from Mr. Kobayashi.

By the other method Y, Joe's claim is 1000x800 = 800'000$, and Bill's claim is 100x800 = 80'000$.  So its is Joe who will get 10x as much as Bill.

Method X was used by the US courts when processing the claims of Madoff's victims, and someone claimed that it is the standard procedure in japan too. 

So, obviously, the first thing you all need to do is find out whether Kobayashi will use method X, method Y, or some other method.
I understood, and your point is quite valid. However, there is no justification for using Method X should 100% of the coins still be there, never were really gone, and the 850,000 BTC number was a complete hoax. When all the coins are accounted for, it means all of the trades of both Joe and Bill were perfectly "real", and so there is no reason at all to use the Method X for computing each depositor's share.

Madoff's case was quite different, because he was running a Ponzi. On the other hand, if you genuinely believe Mt. Gox was a Ponzi, then perhaps after all the court should favour Method X for division. How can you be sure though without some proof of how many coins Mt. Gox originally held at the time of its bankruptcy? After the known lie about the "bitcoin bug" in the bk filing, why do you accept the rest of it as being true?
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September 04, 2014, 10:08:50 AM
 #6113

I understood, and your point is quite valid. However, there is no justification for using Method X should 100% of the coins still be there, never were really gone, and the 850,000 BTC number was a complete hoax. When all the coins are accounted for, it means all of the trades of both Joe and Bill were perfectly "real"
The 800'000 number is the sum of all BTC account balances in the leaked database.  It is basically the total BTC that clients deposited over MtGOX's history, minus all the BTC that they have withdrawn.

If indeed MtGOX never had the 600'000+ coins that it claims to have lost, we would have to conclude that the database has been doctored at some point; and in that case it is hard to say that the trades of non-existent coins by Joe and Bill were real.

However, most people seem to agree that the 800'000 figure is correct, and the 600'000+ coins were indeed lost.  But, even with this assumption, the trades by Joe and Bill were not quite real, since the theft or embezzlement must have happened at least a year ago.  The artificial 10% overprice that MyGOX maintained for a long time since then was at odds with its real situation, for example; so it is questionable whether the trading in that period is "real".

From the creditor meeting papers, I understand that Kobayashi has already transferred to an address of his own the 200'000+ coins that Mark "found". 

But, even now, no one seems to know when the other 600'000 disappeared, nor the addresses where they were transferred to.  Presumably Kobayashi and/or the police will get from Mark the legitimate MtGOX addresses that held the coins before they disappeared; but how could one prove that the addresses where they were transferred to did NOT belong to Mark (or any other suspect)?

Even if the 600'000+ coins were embezzled, rather than stolen by an external hacker, it will be hard to prove that (unless the embezzler was really incompetent at hiding his tracks.)  An embezzler could have written down the private keys on a slip of paper and handed it over to an external accomplice who issued the fatal transaction.  That leak would leave no trace in any logs, and it would be impossible to connect the embezzler to that transaction.

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September 04, 2014, 04:42:35 PM
 #6114

I understood, and your point is quite valid. However, there is no justification for using Method X should 100% of the coins still be there, never were really gone, and the 850,000 BTC number was a complete hoax. When all the coins are accounted for, it means all of the trades of both Joe and Bill were perfectly "real"
The 800'000 number is the sum of all BTC account balances in the leaked database.  It is basically the total BTC that clients deposited over MtGOX's history, minus all the BTC that they have withdrawn.

If indeed MtGOX never had the 600'000+ coins that it claims to have lost, we would have to conclude that the database has been doctored at some point; and in that case it is hard to say that the trades of non-existent coins by Joe and Bill were real.

However, most people seem to agree that the 800'000 figure is correct, and the 600'000+ coins were indeed lost. 
The "leaked" database could have been doctored, while the original is still quite intact and unchanged. Perhaps a phony db was leaked out as part of the instigator's plan for covering up tracks. The takedown of Mt. Gox appears to have been well thought-out including a coordinated public relations campaign to convince the public that management had been incompetent and there is a "need" to regulate bitcoin.

Perhaps most people "agree" on the amount of 800K bitcoins, because its what they've been told to believe. The only real sources for this information are a leaked database and the bankruptcy filing which blames the problem on a "bug in the bitcoin system." This latter claim has more or less been proven false.

It's far easier for me to believe the smaller amount of bitcoins. 200K BTC are still worth in the neighborhood of $100 million. Any much larger sum of coins would seem ridiculous for a three year old company such as Mt. Gox.

Of course I am merely speculating, which is exactly my point, even the amount of bitcoins Mt. Gox held is still very much in doubt. There needs to be full disclosure of this kind of information before talking about dividing up "the spoils".
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September 04, 2014, 06:36:27 PM
 #6115

Perhaps most people "agree" on the amount of 800K bitcoins, because its what they've been told to believe. The only real sources for this information are a leaked database and the bankruptcy filing which blames the problem on a "bug in the bitcoin system." This latter claim has more or less been proven false.

It's far easier for me to believe the smaller amount of bitcoins. 200K BTC are still worth in the neighborhood of $100 million. Any much larger sum of coins would seem ridiculous for a three year old company such as Mt. Gox.

You have a point there: the number "800 k" ultimately comes only from a highy suspect source, that has flatly lied to customers in the past.

But, if the actual sum of all balances was only 220'000, it means that the balances of some clients have been artificially inflated, by 600'000 BTC in total.  A malicious management would have an obvious motivation for doing that: namely, ensuring that those special clients will get awarded the lion's share of the 220'000 actual coins, at the expense of other clients.

I hope that Mr. Kobayashi is aware of that possibility, and is aware that many clients are aware of it.




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September 04, 2014, 07:12:13 PM
 #6116

Kobayashi knows 2 things with full certainty :
- the amount of bitcoins in the wallets he controls
- the amount of fiat in the banks
He also probably knows where all the missing fiat went because he can ask the banks. We know where it went too but not the details (how much has been seized by the US gov/how much has been spent on coffee and blue balls).

Everything else is based on copies of databases that he knows contains mistakes, bugs, and probably fraud. He can not even be sure to have all Mtgox bitcoin addresses (again, because badly managed backups and wallets).

Now he just have to wait for the claim forms to pile up on his desk, and then he will know (and we will know too, later) how much is due.

At least SR sellers will probably never file a claim because they can not be sure that there is not a list of SR addresses available somewhere, and all the claims will have to be submitted with full identification. Other scammers may not take the risk, either.

So when all claims are verified, it is possible that the sum will be below 800kBTC, and maybe even below 200kBTC.

Then the discussions with the whales lawyers will begin. Everyone of them will favor what shall give him the best return ("method X", "method Y", or last_balance * current_price, why not).


A good balance of the situation.  I am not a lawyer and not even a client, but anyway here are my guesses as to what will Mr. Kobayashi do:

Kobayashi will make a choice, and apply it to everyone. I can imagine nasty things like :
- sell all the coins in an auction, and pay everyone in fiat (minus the bank fees)
- refuse all claims that are not supported by a full documentation (proof of deposits, full history of trades)
I would almost bet on these.  Paying in bitcoin could lead to squabbles later, due to variable value of bitcon etc.  Paying in yen will simplify his accounting, and he has plenty of legal and practical excuses for going that way.  The trade history is irrelevant if he chooses "method X", and could be obtained from the MtGOX databases if he chooses "method Y".

- employ an army of consultant to check every claim by hand
Even if there are a few thousand claims, the "army" of validators would not have to be that big.  The main difficulty, I suppose, will be to verify the BTC deposits and withdrawals (if by "method X") or whether the MtGOX accounting of trades and balances have not been doctored (if by "method Y").  Apparently he has already hired bitcoin-savy computer experts to help him with the technical details.

- refuse all claims from people who had sold their accounts, and from whose who bought them
Almost certain, too, unless (perhaps) if the buyer has strong proof of the transaction (like, a notarized contract).   Even then, selling one's account may be seen as an attempt to evade the banks' KYC/AML measures, and so it may bring trouble for buyer and seller.

To be safe, the original owner who registered at MtGOX and provided his ID would have to file the claim, and then turn over the spoils to the buyer.

- use the last price at gox as a basis for conversion from coins to fiat ($135)
If the payout is to be in yen, he will have to auction the coins anyway, and then the proceeds of the auction (minus the auctioner's  fees) will be added to the money to be distributed.

- refuse all claims from people who already had withdrawn more than they had deposited
This rule is implicit in "method X" above.  Those lucky bastards will walk away with a profit, at the expense of those who failed to withdraw in time.  But such "injustice" is inevitable; their situation would be like that of the Madoff clients who withdrew before the collapse, or WorldCom shareholders who sold all their shares in 2000.

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September 04, 2014, 08:02:59 PM
 #6117

Perhaps most people "agree" on the amount of 800K bitcoins, because its what they've been told to believe. The only real sources for this information are a leaked database and the bankruptcy filing which blames the problem on a "bug in the bitcoin system." This latter claim has more or less been proven false.

It's far easier for me to believe the smaller amount of bitcoins. 200K BTC are still worth in the neighborhood of $100 million. Any much larger sum of coins would seem ridiculous for a three year old company such as Mt. Gox.

Of course I am merely speculating, which is exactly my point, even the amount of bitcoins Mt. Gox held is still very much in doubt. There needs to be full disclosure of this kind of information before talking about dividing up "the spoils".

Kobayashi knows 2 things with full certainty :
- the amount of bitcoins in the wallets he controls
- the amount of fiat in the banks
He also probably knows where all the missing fiat went because he can ask the banks. We know where it went too but not the details (how much has been seized by the US gov/how much has been spent on coffee and blue balls).
There is actually no evidence at all that Mt. Gox cash or bitcoins were ever seized by the USG, nor even any means for them to do so. Were some government involved in a seizure, then it would have to be the Japanese one, although it could have been done at the request of another government such as the U.S.

However, if all of the coins are actually still intact, and the claim of 850,000 BTC once held by Mt. Gox deemed bogus, then it's possible its cash deposits were merely frozen up by its banks. A bank officer can do that simply by typing in one or two commands. This act alone would be sufficient to drive Mt. Gox into bankruptcy, as it could never pay its bills or employees.

Were frozen bank funds the actual cause of the bankruptcy and not missing coins, then there should be an investigation into the banks' motivations for any such freeze, especially when taken in light of the seemingly coordinated PR campaign about how bitcoin "needs" to be regulated, and the spate of DDoS and transaction malleability attacks on Mt. Gox and other exchanges which took place at the same time in late February.

It should be noted that CCI, a Swiss investigative firm, has already documented a pattern of manipulation by Mt. Gox's European banks which are linked to its Japanese ones. See: http://www.mtgoxinvestigation.com/
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September 04, 2014, 08:26:25 PM
 #6118

If they get ~100,000 claims, including ~1000 that are more than 10 BTC, it means something in the range of 20,000 hours of work. That's one year of work for a team of 10-15 people. Not exactly an army, but not free.

IIRC, analysis of the database yielded only 70'000 accounts that had some nontrivial balance (I don't recall the threshold, but it was 1 BTC at most). 

I would think that a client with less than 500 USD balance (1 BTC) would be very unlikely to  file, since his return would be at most 1/5 of that, or 100 USD.  Many of those above that threshold will not file because they have dirty hands.  So the claims should be less than 50'000 probably much less.

More victims may give up if Kobayashi goes by "method X" and require claimants to provide the full history of their deposits and withdrawals.

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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September 04, 2014, 08:29:49 PM
 #6119

It should be noted that CCI, a Swiss investigative firm, has already documented a pattern of manipulation by Mt. Gox's European banks which are linked to its Japanese ones. See: http://www.mtgoxinvestigation.com/

Hm, this site looks very suspicious to me.  Could be an attempt to steal people's data, or worse.

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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September 04, 2014, 08:53:56 PM
 #6120

It should be noted that CCI, a Swiss investigative firm, has already documented a pattern of manipulation by Mt. Gox's European banks which are linked to its Japanese ones. See: http://www.mtgoxinvestigation.com/

Hm, this site looks very suspicious to me.  Could be an attempt to steal people's data, or worse.
The CCI web site has been up there for months, and is fairly regularly updated. I will of course let them defend themselves, yet have never really heard any complaints about data theft. A quick google search turned up absolutely nothing. I'd be curious if anyone else has had a negative experience with this company. It never hurts to be a little cautious.

I found their "update" page to be quite enlightening:
http://www.mtgoxinvestigation.com/updates.html
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