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Author Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]  (Read 878059 times)
DrApricot
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February 20, 2015, 01:45:20 AM
 #6401

and as the days goes by nothing new as i know...
any news around the web??? anybody???

See: Report: Mt Gox Data Provides More Clues to Trading Bot 'Willy'
http://www.coindesk.com/report-mt-gox-data-provides-more-clues-to-trading-bot-willy
It's mostly a rehash of the Willy Report, but this seemed new to me:
Quote
More information is also needed with regards to what happened to the bitcoins bought by Willy, as well as the USD that "reverse Willy" [emphasis added] had accumulated in February.

Willy's purpose is also unclear. More clarity is needed to decipher whether it was simply a buying tool or whether it attempted to manipulate the market price.

I've never heard anything before about a "reverse Willy". If there was any short selling going on with all of the coins purchased by Willy and Markus, perhaps "reverse Willy" was involved in unloading them. Anyone know anything about this reverse bot?

Mt Gox was in the hole cashwise by the end of February, so what happened to all the USD supposedly accumulated by  "reverse Willy"? Follow the money!

The report explains it: Willy, or a robot that behaved very much like it, started selling BTC instead of buying BTC, apparently after the price crashed.

In my theory, that would be expected: Willy was doing arbitrage between MtGOX and some Chinese exchange, and the Chinese exchanges were leading the price.  Then willy should buy while the price was rising (because the price in China would be higher than at MtGOX) and sell while the price was crashing (when China was lower).

My guess is that, during the rally, Willy had been buying real BTC with non-existing USD.  The owner hoped to get the CNY out for China at a later time, and fill the USD hole in MtGOX's accounting (with profit) before anyone noticed. Later, during the crash, the reversed Willy would have been selling non-existent BTC (since the real ones had been already sold in China) for USD in the client accounts.  Although these were mostly nonexistent USD, the trades still made sense because they reduced the size of the USD hole that Willy's owner would have to fill, whicle creating a BTC hole of a somewhat smaller value  (because of the China-MtGOX spread).

But (still my guess) the CNY were not taken out of China, either intentionally or due to some snag (the PBoC decrees, default by the Chinese accomplice, whatever). So MtGOX was left with huge BTC and USD holes, an the rest is history.

Beware about putting too much weight on the "Willy report" by that investigative firm.  It is entirely based on the leaked database, which was copied by parties unknown sometime before the final collapse.  We do not know whether the leaked copy is reliable; it may have been doctored and leaked specifically to shift the attention away from the real facts and culprits.  Indeed, we now know that the copy that the police got from the servers was incomplete (or worse).  The leaked database included records of deposits and withdrawals, but the firm has no way of checking whether those records match the actual deposits and withdrawals. In particular, AFAIK the blockchain addresses that received the BTC widthrawals were not leaked. (The police has bank records, and should have those addresses, hopefully.)

According to your explanation, someone in China must be sitting on a huge pile of stranded yuan that they got for selling their unpaid-for bitcoins extracted from Mt. Gox. If in fact this is where the monetary value of the missing bitcoins and dollar balances ended up, and said missing property fails to ever be restored to the Mt. Gox trustee, would this not constitute theft on the part of the CNY holder(s)? Assuming it is so, then it contradicts the Tokyo police claim that insider fraud was at the root of the Mt. Gox collapse and not mere theft. There is a rather fine line between theft and fraud, yet nevertheless this is probably one instance in which precise language would be preferable.
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February 20, 2015, 03:41:06 AM
 #6402

According to your explanation, someone in China must be sitting on a huge pile of stranded yuan that they got for selling their unpaid-for bitcoins extracted from Mt. Gox. If in fact this is where the monetary value of the missing bitcoins and dollar balances ended up, and said missing property fails to ever be restored to the Mt. Gox trustee, would this not constitute theft on the part of the CNY holder(s)? Assuming it is so, then it contradicts the Tokyo police claim that insider fraud was at the root of the Mt. Gox collapse and not mere theft. There is a rather fine line between theft and fraud, yet nevertheless this is probably one instance in which precise language would be preferable.

Note that is is not an "explanation", just a "theory".  Precise language is preferable.  Wink  Many others are possible, but this one seems more likely to me.

The boundaries of theft and fraud are kinda fuzzy, and they often overlap.  I could say that buying bitcoins from customers with non-existent money was fraud, taking possession of those coins was theft.

In that theory, the CNY from the sale of those coins may have been confiscated by the Chinese government, may be sitting in an account of a Chinese exchange, may have been withdrawn by Willy's owner or by an accomplice.  In the latter case, the money may be in possession of any person involved, in CNY or laundered into other currencies.

In that theory, at least one of the Chinese exchange managers must have been aware of the massive transfers from MtGOX.  However, at the time it probably looked legitimate arbitrage.  The fault was that the arbitrager stole the coins from MtGOX clients, instead of buying them with real dollars; and the Chinese need not have been aware of that.

From the perspective of the Chinese government, during Nov/2013 the amateur Chinese traders imported at least a million  totally unproductive pieces of nothing, without going through customs, and were about to pay the equivalent of half a billion dollars or more in CNY to foreign sellers.  Obviously the PBoC must have been extremely unhappy about that.  So, in my mind it is not unlikely that one of the goals of the December decrees was to block this sizable leak in their national trade balance and prevent that pile of CNY from leaving the country.

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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February 20, 2015, 05:34:49 AM
Last edit: February 20, 2015, 09:55:02 AM by DrApricot
 #6403

According to your explanation, someone in China must be sitting on a huge pile of stranded yuan that they got for selling their unpaid-for bitcoins extracted from Mt. Gox. If in fact this is where the monetary value of the missing bitcoins and dollar balances ended up, and said missing property fails to ever be restored to the Mt. Gox trustee, would this not constitute theft on the part of the CNY holder(s)? Assuming it is so, then it contradicts the Tokyo police claim that insider fraud was at the root of the Mt. Gox collapse and not mere theft. There is a rather fine line between theft and fraud, yet nevertheless this is probably one instance in which precise language would be preferable.

Note that is is not an "explanation", just a "theory".  Precise language is preferable.  Wink  Many others are possible, but this one seems more likely to me.

The boundaries of theft and fraud are kinda fuzzy, and they often overlap.  I could say that buying bitcoins from customers with non-existent money was fraud, taking possession of those coins was theft.

In that theory, the CNY from the sale of those coins may have been confiscated by the Chinese government, may be sitting in an account of a Chinese exchange, may have been withdrawn by Willy's owner or by an accomplice.  In the latter case, the money may be in possession of any person involved, in CNY or laundered into other currencies.

In that theory, at least one of the Chinese exchange managers must have been aware of the massive transfers from MtGOX.  However, at the time it probably looked legitimate arbitrage.  The fault was that the arbitrager stole the coins from MtGOX clients, instead of buying them with real dollars; and the Chinese need not have been aware of that.

From the perspective of the Chinese government, during Nov/2013 the amateur Chinese traders imported at least a million  totally unproductive pieces of nothing, without going through customs, and were about to pay the equivalent of half a billion dollars or more in CNY to foreign sellers.  Obviously the PBoC must have been extremely unhappy about that.  So, in my mind it is not unlikely that one of the goals of the December decrees was to block this sizable leak in their national trade balance and prevent that pile of CNY from leaving the country.

I find your theory quite compelling. If so, we are dealing with the actions of a state with some possible diplomatic ramifications. If true, then this could help to make it entirely clear why there has been such an atmosphere of secrecy surrounding the Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings, as noted by Kolin Burgess in his report on the second creditors' meeting. Perhaps the Mt. Gox creditors should be trying to work through diplomatic channels in order to get back their bitcoins. It's possible the Japanese government more or less can't even lift a finger in this situation without making "waves."

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February 22, 2015, 10:38:29 AM
 #6404

have you read about buying 1 gox btc at 0.11 btc?  https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

what do they know that we don't?
they say they expect distribution until September.. so they have inside information?
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February 22, 2015, 11:07:57 AM
 #6405

have you read about buying 1 gox btc at 0.11 btc?  https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

what do they know that we don't?
they say they expect distribution until September.. so they have inside information?

It's only for the GoxBTC already on their site. With the main site down you can't transfer GoxBTC to other accounts anymore. They know how many GoxBTC they have on their site which helps to calculate their risk. IIRC, the numbers commonly thrown around (800'000 missing / 200'000 found mysteriously) would indicate that 1 GoxBTC ~ 0.25 BTC. So they take a gamble at that.

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February 22, 2015, 03:03:49 PM
 #6406

have you read about buying 1 gox btc at 0.11 btc?  https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

what do they know that we don't?
they say they expect distribution until September.. so they have inside information?

It's only for the GoxBTC already on their site. With the main site down you can't transfer GoxBTC to other accounts anymore. They know how many GoxBTC they have on their site which helps to calculate their risk. IIRC, the numbers commonly thrown around (800'000 missing / 200'000 found mysteriously) would indicate that 1 GoxBTC ~ 0.25 BTC. So they take a gamble at that.


This is based on wishful thinking for the moment. Too many things at stake for someone to "invest" into some of this. But it's a free market I suppose...

Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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February 22, 2015, 03:15:04 PM
 #6407

have you read about buying 1 gox btc at 0.11 btc?  https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

what do they know that we don't?
they say they expect distribution until September.. so they have inside information?

It's only for the GoxBTC already on their site. With the main site down you can't transfer GoxBTC to other accounts anymore. They know how many GoxBTC they have on their site which helps to calculate their risk. IIRC, the numbers commonly thrown around (800'000 missing / 200'000 found mysteriously) would indicate that 1 GoxBTC ~ 0.25 BTC. So they take a gamble at that.


This is based on wishful thinking for the moment. Too many things at stake for someone to "invest" into some of this. But it's a free market I suppose...

No one can invest in anything at bitcoinbuilder any more. It's just a gamble between those who have GoxBTC there already and the site operator.

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February 22, 2015, 03:21:07 PM
 #6408

have you read about buying 1 gox btc at 0.11 btc?  https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

what do they know that we don't?
they say they expect distribution until September.. so they have inside information?

It's only for the GoxBTC already on their site. With the main site down you can't transfer GoxBTC to other accounts anymore. They know how many GoxBTC they have on their site which helps to calculate their risk. IIRC, the numbers commonly thrown around (800'000 missing / 200'000 found mysteriously) would indicate that 1 GoxBTC ~ 0.25 BTC. So they take a gamble at that.


This is based on wishful thinking for the moment. Too many things at stake for someone to "invest" into some of this. But it's a free market I suppose...

No one can invest in anything at bitcoinbuilder any more. It's just a gamble between those who have GoxBTC there already and the site operator.

Understood. My point is if someone (ie: John Doe) has GoxBTC, what are the chances he ends up with REAL BTCs under these circumstances. I'm not talking about outsiders; just insiders (and the site owner). It's all about trust and good will (that everything goes OK)... or not...

Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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February 22, 2015, 03:32:49 PM
 #6409

Understood. My point is if someone (ie: John Doe) has GoxBTC, what are the chances he ends up with REAL BTCs under these circumstances. I'm not talking about outsiders; just insiders (and the site owner). It's all about trust and good will (that everything goes OK)... or not...

I'm not 100% sure what you trying to say. My understanding was that bitoinbuilder pays BTC for GoxBTc right on the spot.

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February 22, 2015, 03:35:09 PM
 #6410

Understood. My point is if someone (ie: John Doe) has GoxBTC, what are the chances he ends up with REAL BTCs under these circumstances. I'm not talking about outsiders; just insiders (and the site owner). It's all about trust and good will (that everything goes OK)... or not...

I'm not 100% sure what you trying to say. My understanding was that bitoinbuilder pays BTC for GoxBTc right on the spot.

As I have lack of information, I will believe what you're saying. I thought that if someone possesses some GOXBTCs there, he'll be able to withdraw them WHEN and IF MtGOX distribute theirs. But, as I said; I don't know the details.

Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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February 22, 2015, 03:54:54 PM
 #6411

Understood. My point is if someone (ie: John Doe) has GoxBTC, what are the chances he ends up with REAL BTCs under these circumstances. I'm not talking about outsiders; just insiders (and the site owner). It's all about trust and good will (that everything goes OK)... or not...

I'm not 100% sure what you trying to say. My understanding was that bitoinbuilder pays BTC for GoxBTc right on the spot.

As I have lack of information, I will believe what you're saying. I thought that if someone possesses some GOXBTCs there, he'll be able to withdraw them WHEN and IF MtGOX distribute theirs. But, as I said; I don't know the details.

I don't have GoxBTC there so can't test. However during the tumble to 100 that's how it worked. Bitcoinbuilder was established because many people wanted out at the time and goxcoins could still be transferred between accounts. First this was done person to person and then bitcoinbuilder automated the process. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459714.0

What has changed in the meanwhile is that bitcoinbuilder themselves are buying the GoxBTC: The announcement email @bitcoinvest was on about was pasted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=486142.msg10527910#msg10527910

Quote
Builder's Back
Get .11 BTC per GOXBTC.

Heya!

I know it's been a long time since you've heard anything from Bitcoin Builder, but I promise... a lot has been going on behind the scenes!

We've re-launched as a "Bitcoin Exchange Aggregator" that pulls in the best prices from multiple exchanges and allows you to trade without fee.

But more importantly, from now through February 24th, 2015, we are offering the option to sell the GOXBTC you have "locked" in Mt. Gox to us at the rate of .11 BTC per GOXBTC.

Just based on public information, we of course expect the value of a GOXBTC to be higher than this when the claims process is complete. We also expect distributions perhaps by September or even earlier.

However, if you would like to get some liquidity now and remove some potential risk, simply visit https://bitcoinbuilder.com/sellgox to take us up on our offer.

You will be able to trade or withdraw your BTC immediately after being verified and agreeing to the Assignment of Claim.

If you'd rather not sell, do nothing, and whenever any Mt. Gox bankruptcy funds are distributed to Bitcoin Builder, your account will automatically be credited with whatever your portion turned out to be worth at that time.

To check it all out, just visit Bitcoin Builder:
https://bitcoinbuilder.com

Thanks,
Josh Jones
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February 22, 2015, 09:36:15 PM
 #6412

IMHO, one year ago, Josh Jones (CEO and Founder Bitcoin Builder, Inc.) trusted MtGox would recover somehow and accepted buying GoxBTC with real BTC at a price, thus offering a way out of Gox for the (desperate?) people. Of course that would make no sense if GoxBTC was to completely evaporate. Some, like me for a few BTC, also bet that way.

The simple thing to me now is Josh again thinks GoxBTC can somehow recover from the present zero. From inside information or just as another bet, he must be trying that again.

I would not be so optimistic as to think 200K/800K = 0.25 BTC per GoxBTC (for there will be a lot of money spent with lawyers, experts, theft, etc.), but that s a number, why not. On the other hand, with current BTC value, maybe a lot more can come out. I would not exclude 100% recovering of BTCs @ the present 200-250 USD range.

For Josh, when BTC was around 1000 USD, GoxBTC went down to around 100 USD, so 0.1 rate. Now, at 0.1 BTC per GoxBTX it is again 0.1, what makes 1 cent of original BTC per GoxBTC, what is not bad. Wink And of course Bitcoin Builder got trade commissions as well at that time.

Finally, about withdrawal etc, for what I know about Bitcoin Builder, I bet yes, it is probably instant cash for those wanting to sell BitcoinBuilder-GoxBTCs. Just a feeling, but I trust them.
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February 23, 2015, 12:11:05 AM
 #6413

IMHO, one year ago, Josh Jones (CEO and Founder Bitcoin Builder, Inc.) trusted MtGox would recover somehow and accepted buying GoxBTC with real BTC at a price, thus offering a way out of Gox for the (desperate?) people.
I read somewhere that bitcoinbuilder is the largest Mt. Gox creditor in California. Maybe that's why Josh has been clued in. It may indicate that the trustee is negotiating deals with the largest creditors. That's only a guess, but seems logical.
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February 27, 2015, 09:46:46 PM
 #6414

I haven't heard a thing from anyone about Gox. It would be nice to get something back one day but I'm not holding my breath.
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February 28, 2015, 06:39:48 AM
 #6415

IMHO, one year ago, Josh Jones (CEO and Founder Bitcoin Builder, Inc.) trusted MtGox would recover somehow and accepted buying GoxBTC with real BTC at a price, thus offering a way out of Gox for the (desperate?) people.
I read somewhere that bitcoinbuilder is the largest Mt. Gox creditor in California. Maybe that's why Josh has been clued in. It may indicate that the trustee is negotiating deals with the largest creditors. That's only a guess, but seems logical.

That wouldn't suprise me.

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February 28, 2015, 05:19:15 PM
Last edit: February 28, 2015, 08:39:53 PM by DrApricot
 #6416

IMHO, one year ago, Josh Jones (CEO and Founder Bitcoin Builder, Inc.) trusted MtGox would recover somehow and accepted buying GoxBTC with real BTC at a price, thus offering a way out of Gox for the (desperate?) people.

I read somewhere that bitcoinbuilder is the largest Mt. Gox creditor in California. Maybe that's why Josh has been clued in. It may indicate that the trustee is negotiating deals with the largest creditors. That's only a guess, but seems logical.

That wouldn't suprise me.
Wink wink nudge nudge. Kobayashi would tell you all about it, but he doesn't want to break his NDA.

It'S aul Good-man sez:

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Ever hear of a bargaining chip? Well, what we have here is the mother of all bargaining chips!"
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March 01, 2015, 04:54:50 PM
 #6417

Although I have nothing against bitcoinbuilder, I have stopped trusting anyone named "Josh".

Coinsecure referral ID: https://coinsecure.in/signup/refamit (use this link to signup)
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March 01, 2015, 09:42:17 PM
 #6418

Although I have nothing against bitcoinbuilder, I have stopped trusting anyone named "Josh".
Yeah, me too... since BFL deliveries went 1 year back from expected time. Undecided

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March 14, 2015, 03:57:38 PM
 #6419

it's been a long time with no updates....
or did miss something?? still nothing on their website and nothing in the news...
when are we going to learn the truth and of course get our bitcoins back?
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March 15, 2015, 06:17:40 PM
Last edit: March 15, 2015, 07:02:11 PM by DrApricot
 #6420

According to your explanation [theory], someone in China must be sitting on a huge pile of stranded yuan that they got for selling their unpaid-for bitcoins extracted from Mt. Gox.

Note that is is not an "explanation", just a "theory".  Precise language is preferable.  Wink  Many others are possible, but this one seems more likely to me.

The boundaries of theft and fraud are kinda fuzzy, and they often overlap.  I could say that buying bitcoins from customers with non-existent money was fraud, taking possession of those coins was theft.

In that theory, the CNY from the sale of those coins may have been confiscated by the Chinese government, may be sitting in an account of a Chinese exchange, may have been withdrawn by Willy's owner or by an accomplice.  In the latter case, the money may be in possession of any person involved, in CNY or laundered into other currencies.

In that theory, at least one of the Chinese exchange managers must have been aware of the massive transfers from MtGOX.  However, at the time it probably looked legitimate arbitrage.  The fault was that the arbitrager stole the coins from MtGOX clients, instead of buying them with real dollars; and the Chinese need not have been aware of that.

From the perspective of the Chinese government, during Nov/2013 the amateur Chinese traders imported at least a million  totally unproductive pieces of nothing, without going through customs, and were about to pay the equivalent of half a billion dollars or more in CNY to foreign sellers.  Obviously the PBoC must have been extremely unhappy about that.  So, in my mind it is not unlikely that one of the goals of the December decrees was to block this sizable leak in their national trade balance and prevent that pile of CNY from leaving the country.
I find your theory quite compelling. If so, we are dealing with the actions of a state with some possible diplomatic ramifications.
See "Beijing has a bitcoin problem on its hands" http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1735594/beijing-has-bitcoin-problem-its-hands
Quote
In a new report, Goldman Sachs says the yuan is now used in 80 per cent of transactions into and out of the cyber currency, topping the US dollar, yen and euro. Given that the Communist Party’s highest priority is stability, and the rampant use of bitcoin represents nothing if not the opposite, it’s probably only a matter of time until Beijing tries to crack down.
This article definitely lends a bit of support to what you've been saying. I suppose the creditors' could simply ask Kobayashi directly if their money has been held up by the Chinese government. He might not give an answer, but at least the question would be out there. The hacker attack/transaction malleability one seems like a weaker and weaker explanation by the day for the Mt. Gox collapse. In fact, it has been directly refuted by the Tokyo police who have blamed it on insider fraud.
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