ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Eric Muyser]

0.04-0.045 next week or the week after. Boom. Yes, I said it.

[Diamondstarfall]

I'm curious to see your thoughts as to what would happen to the price in BTC of shares when BTC rises significantly, say if it happens to reach $500+ USD/BTC.

[bitfair]

I'm curious to see your thoughts as to what would happen to the price in BTC of shares when BTC rises significantly, say if it happens to reach $500+ USD/BTC.

A lot of people believe that it will have no effect.

However, I believe a high BTC price will increase the incentives to mine, so network hash rate will increase dramatically. This is definitely negative for mining revenues. For hardware revenues, it will reward the producers that can pump out hardware the fastest - it could go both ways for AM.

Overall, [in my opinion] a significant rise in USDBTC is bearish for AM shares (in terms of BTC).

[velacreations]

0.04-0.045 next week or the week after. Boom. Yes, I said it.

could be, especially if blades start selling again this week.

I don't know who is selling shares so cheap, but I wish I had more coins to buy 'em!

[TECHICENINE]

https://i.imgur.com/bMvg1Zp.png

====>

http://www.deepfriedcat.com/


imo*fake chart is explained better here/\represents a combined hashrate of friedcats' 3 friends' pools..thanks


  

[canth]

another troll to ignore!

Man, I am collecting trolls on here.  I need a tally somewhere...

Well said. Some people here think that anyone not participating in their circle-jerk and trying to inflate the share price is trolling. When you show them the maths to prove just how inflated the prices are, they start talking about buying in at the IPO for 0.1 BTC, like that's in the slightest bit relevant for someone looking to buy shares now.

The fact is that even if AM had a hash rate of 250 Th/s, with 400,000 shares at 3.5 BTC each, that works out to be just 178.57 Mh/s per BTC. In order for AM's mining operation to provide similar value to a 5 GH/s BFL, it needs a hash rate of around 2,500 Th/s at a share price of 3.5 BTC.

Then they go on about hardware sales and delude themselves into believing that people will continue to pay insane prices for the worst ASIC hardware on the market and that hardware sales are going to increase as will dividends.

They probably know they're full of shit and they're just trying to pump before they dump.

Why do people keep comparing AM hardware to BFL hardware? BFL hasn't shipped 90%+ of their outstanding orders and anyone ordering today won't get a product for months, possibly not even until 2014. I tell you what, I'll sell you Unicorn-PT shares that mine at 1TH/s per BTC - how many would you like?

Maybe AM is overpriced and maybe it's not, however, this has zero to do with BFL and everything to do with what you think AM can execute in the coming 6 months (not 6 days or 6 hours like some over-eager day traders).

[velacreations]

he wants to cause doubt so he can buy in under 3.3.

Dude, it ain't working. 

His "maths" is nothing more than ignoring real data from the last 8 months, and pulling numbers out of his ass. 

Nothing is always cheaper than something

[Eric Muyser]

another troll to ignore!

Man, I am collecting trolls on here.  I need a tally somewhere...

Well said. Some people here think that anyone not participating in their circle-jerk and trying to inflate the share price is trolling. When you show them the maths to prove just how inflated the prices are, they start talking about buying in at the IPO for 0.1 BTC, like that's in the slightest bit relevant for someone looking to buy shares now.

The fact is that even if AM had a hash rate of 250 Th/s, with 400,000 shares at 3.5 BTC each, that works out to be just 178.57 Mh/s per BTC. In order for AM's mining operation to provide similar value to a 5 GH/s BFL, it needs a hash rate of around 2,500 Th/s at a share price of 3.5 BTC.

Then they go on about hardware sales and delude themselves into believing that people will continue to pay insane prices for the worst ASIC hardware on the market and that hardware sales are going to increase as will dividends.

They probably know they're full of shit and they're just trying to pump before they dump.

Why do people keep comparing AM hardware to BFL hardware? BFL hasn't shipped 90%+ of their outstanding orders and anyone ordering today won't get a product for months, possibly not even until 2014. I tell you what, I'll sell you Unicorn-PT shares that mine at 1TH/s per BTC - how many would you like?

Maybe AM is overpriced and maybe it's not, however, this has zero to do with BFL and everything to do with what you think AM can execute in the coming 6 months (not 6 days or 6 hours like some over-eager day traders).

Short of calling him a derogatory name, I'd say there's always people who just don't get it, and he's one. His math and facts on this subject were laughable earlier in this thread, thus not worth acknowledging.

[velacreations]

Short of calling him a derogatory name, I'd say there's always people who just don't get it, and he's one. His math and facts on this subject were laughable earlier in this thread, thus not worth acknowledging.

people, use the ignore button, that's why it's there.

TROLL TALLY: 4

[Mabsark]

another troll to ignore!

Man, I am collecting trolls on here.  I need a tally somewhere...

Well said. Some people here think that anyone not participating in their circle-jerk and trying to inflate the share price is trolling. When you show them the maths to prove just how inflated the prices are, they start talking about buying in at the IPO for 0.1 BTC, like that's in the slightest bit relevant for someone looking to buy shares now.

The fact is that even if AM had a hash rate of 250 Th/s, with 400,000 shares at 3.5 BTC each, that works out to be just 178.57 Mh/s per BTC. In order for AM's mining operation to provide similar value to a 5 GH/s BFL, it needs a hash rate of around 2,500 Th/s at a share price of 3.5 BTC.

Then they go on about hardware sales and delude themselves into believing that people will continue to pay insane prices for the worst ASIC hardware on the market and that hardware sales are going to increase as will dividends.

They probably know they're full of shit and they're just trying to pump before they dump.

Why do people keep comparing AM hardware to BFL hardware? BFL hasn't shipped 90%+ of their outstanding orders and anyone ordering today won't get a product for months, possibly not even until 2014. I tell you what, I'll sell you Unicorn-PT shares that mine at 1TH/s per BTC - how many would you like?

Maybe AM is overpriced and maybe it's not, however, this has zero to do with BFL and everything to do with what you think AM can execute in the coming 6 months (not 6 days or 6 hours like some over-eager day traders).

Because that's the competition. I could compare it to BitFury or KnC if you prefer but that will just make things look a hell of a lot worse. Does it matter if BFL hasn't shipped 90% of it's hardware? AM hasn't brought online 90% of it's hashing power either and it most certainly hasn't brought online the 2,500 Th/s that it would need to provide equal hashing value with BFL.

You say it has nothing to do with BFL, but that's just wilful ignorance. BFL, Bitfury, KnC and AMC will all effect AM with regards to both hardware sales and share of the network. You can keep comparing the competition to imaginary unicorns, but that's just pure stupidity as it's a fact that the competition is real.

Prove to me that your Unicorn-PT shares can actually provide me with 1 Th/s and I'll buy as many as I can afford. Otherwise, stop talking nonsense simply because you can't refute the claims.

[Mabsark]

he wants to cause doubt so he can buy in under 3.3.

Dude, it ain't working. 

His "maths" is nothing more than ignoring real data from the last 8 months, and pulling numbers out of his ass. 

Nothing is always cheaper than something

What data am I ignoring? What numbers am I pulling out my arse?

BFL
5 GH/s
274 USD, 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 2.74 = 1.825 Gh/s per BTC

AM
400,000 shares
3.5 BTC per share
2,500 Th/s
2,500,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 6.25 Gh/s per share
6,250,000,000 / 3.5 = 1.786 Gh/s per BTC

In order for AM to offer similar value to a 5 Gh/s BFL in hashing power, it needs 2,500 Th/s. That's a fact and nothing you can say or do will change that. Why should people ignore facts and make decisions based on ignorance, simply because you want to increase your profit at their expense?

[freedomno1]

he wants to cause doubt so he can buy in under 3.3.

Dude, it ain't working.  

His "maths" is nothing more than ignoring real data from the last 8 months, and pulling numbers out of his ass.  

Nothing is always cheaper than something

What data am I ignoring? What numbers am I pulling out my arse?

BFL
5 GH/s
274 USD, 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 2.74 = 1.825 Gh/s per BTC

AM
400,000 shares
3.5 BTC per share
2,500 Th/s
2,500,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 6.25 Gh/s per share
6,250,000,000 / 3.5 = 1.786 Gh/s per BTC

In order for AM to offer similar value to a 5 Gh/s BFL in hashing power, it needs 2,500 Th/s. That's a fact and nothing you can say or do will change that. Why should people ignore facts and make decisions based on ignorance, simply because you want to increase your profit at their expense?

Thought you were pawned 4 days ago
That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Onward
https://i.imgur.com/qorOH5y.png

[Mabsark]

another troll to ignore!

Man, I am collecting trolls on here.  I need a tally somewhere...

Well said. Some people here think that anyone not participating in their circle-jerk and trying to inflate the share price is trolling. When you show them the maths to prove just how inflated the prices are, they start talking about buying in at the IPO for 0.1 BTC, like that's in the slightest bit relevant for someone looking to buy shares now.

The fact is that even if AM had a hash rate of 250 Th/s, with 400,000 shares at 3.5 BTC each, that works out to be just 178.57 Mh/s per BTC. In order for AM's mining operation to provide similar value to a 5 GH/s BFL, it needs a hash rate of around 2,500 Th/s at a share price of 3.5 BTC.

Then they go on about hardware sales and delude themselves into believing that people will continue to pay insane prices for the worst ASIC hardware on the market and that hardware sales are going to increase as will dividends.

They probably know they're full of shit and they're just trying to pump before they dump.

Why do people keep comparing AM hardware to BFL hardware? BFL hasn't shipped 90%+ of their outstanding orders and anyone ordering today won't get a product for months, possibly not even until 2014. I tell you what, I'll sell you Unicorn-PT shares that mine at 1TH/s per BTC - how many would you like?

Maybe AM is overpriced and maybe it's not, however, this has zero to do with BFL and everything to do with what you think AM can execute in the coming 6 months (not 6 days or 6 hours like some over-eager day traders).

Short of calling him a derogatory name, I'd say there's always people who just don't get it, and he's one. His math and facts on this subject were laughable earlier in this thread, thus not worth acknowledging.

Instead of saying that my maths and facts are laughable, I'd like to see you try and show that. You won't because you know for a fact that the maths is spot on and anyone can confirm that for themselves.

People are free to make their own minds up based on the information available to them. Now, they can use the solid mathematical facts which I've provided to help them with their decision, or they can listen to the nonsense which you guys spew in order to try and increase share price.

[Mabsark]

he wants to cause doubt so he can buy in under 3.3.

Dude, it ain't working.  

His "maths" is nothing more than ignoring real data from the last 8 months, and pulling numbers out of his ass.  

Nothing is always cheaper than something

What data am I ignoring? What numbers am I pulling out my arse?

BFL
5 GH/s
274 USD, 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 2.74 = 1.825 Gh/s per BTC

AM
400,000 shares
3.5 BTC per share
2,500 Th/s
2,500,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 6.25 Gh/s per share
6,250,000,000 / 3.5 = 1.786 Gh/s per BTC

In order for AM to offer similar value to a 5 Gh/s BFL in hashing power, it needs 2,500 Th/s. That's a fact and nothing you can say or do will change that. Why should people ignore facts and make decisions based on ignorance, simply because you want to increase your profit at their expense?

Thought you were pawned 4 days ago
That would be impressive if it wasn't for this wall of Undelivered Orders
Did I mention thats over 4000  
http://bfl.ptz.ro/

Onward
https://i.imgur.com/qorOH5y.png

Why? Because you said so? Prove the maths wrong, then you claim I've been "pawned". Like I said back then:

At an assembly rate of 2 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Minirigs in 39 days.
At an assembly rate of 5 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Singles in 119 days.
At an assembly rate of 10 per hour, a single person working 8 hours per day, 5 days per week, could assemble those Jalapenos in 53 days.

With 2 people assembling Singles, 1 assembling Minirigs and 1 assembling Jalapenos, the backlog could be cleared in 60 days with an adequate supply of components.

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

[freedomno1]

Facepalm use a better company and we can talk  

But fine
BFL
5 GH/s
274 USD, 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 2.74 = 1.825 Gh/s per BTC

Did not deliver
Time Value Lost One year Bitcoin $25
Total Cost 11 BTC
1 year Later
Bitcoin 100 Dollars Unit not Delivered
Net loss $1100
Revenue generated 0

Lets compound that 1100 net loss and assume it delivered now
I believe you cannot disagree that the time value of money is a value so lets add that 1100 not your 2.74 lets also assume for simplicity sake you would have made a bit of money reinvesting that to and keep the 11

5 GH/s
274 USD, 11 BTC @ 25 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 11 =  0.45454 Mh/s per BTC

Now lets make some changes to that when applied to AM

400,000 shares
3.5 BTC per share
2,500 Th/s
2,500,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 6.25 Gh/s per share
6,250,000,000 / 3.5 = 1.786 Gh/s per BTC

Nothing I can do to change that
Well I guess the time value of money is nothing  

Go fix the AM scale and tell me what the TOTAL Hash Rate of the whole network is currently if your going to put out numbers like that
Heres a hint
http://www.coindesk.com/exponential-leap-in-bitcoin-hash-rates/

[VeeMiner]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

[Eric Muyser]

ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

Agree with everything else you said but I wouldn't be so sure AM's chips will be *quite* as good as Bitfury's. His is pretty exceptional, but who knows if it will ship, when it will ship, how many he can get out and at what pace. AM is consistently good at all of the above, but the chip could be a fair bit less efficient and still a much better idea to support AM.

[Mabsark]

Facepalm use a better company and we can talk  

But fine
BFL
5 GH/s
274 USD, 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 2.74 = 1.825 Gh/s per BTC

Did not deliver
Time Value Lost One year Bitcoin $25
Total Cost 11 BTC
1 year Later
Bitcoin 100 Dollars Unit not Delivered
Net loss $1100
Revenue generated 0

Lets compound that 1100 net loss and assume it delivered now
I believe you cannot disagree that the time value of money is a value so lets add that 1100 not your 2.74 lets also assume for simplicity sake you would have made a bit of money reinvesting that to and keep the 11

5 GH/s
274 USD, 11 BTC @ 25 USD/BTC
5,000,000,000 / 11 =  0.45454 Mh/s per BTC

Now lets make some changes to that when applied to AM

400,000 shares
3.5 BTC per share
2,500 Th/s
2,500,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 6.25 Gh/s per share
6,250,000,000 / 3.5 = 1.786 Gh/s per BTC

Nothing I can do to change that
Well I guess the time value of money is nothing  

Go fix the AM scale and tell me what the TOTAL Hash Rate of the whole network is currently if your going to put out numbers like that
Heres a hint
http://www.coindesk.com/exponential-leap-in-bitcoin-hash-rates/

Again, as I said in a previous comment:

Actually. Profit from placing an order for BFL 1 year ago is:

Cost: 149 USD
Hash rate: 4.5 Gh/s
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25

Difficulties:
2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 12,153,412
2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 15,605,633
20313/06/16 - current = 19,507,041

Income:
2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 0.1862 BTC per day * 11 days = 2.0482 BTC
2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 0.1450 BTC per day * 11 days = 1.595 BTC
20313/06/16 - current = 0.1170 BTC per day * 8 days = 0.936 BTC
Total = 4.5792 BTC = 457.92 USD @ 100 USD/BTC

Electricity costs:
35W
0.2 USD per kWh
Daily cost = 0.35 * 24 * 0.2 = 0.168 USD
Total usage cost = 0.168 * 30 = 5.04 USD

Profit = 457.92 - 274 - 5.04 = 178.88 USD = 1.7888 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC

I posted that on the 24th June, so add another 3 days of profit to that, bringing the total to:

3 * 0.117 BTC = 0.351 BTC
Total = 4.9302 BTC = 493.02 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
3 * 0.168 USD = 0.504 USD
Total usage cost = 0.168 * 30 = 5.544 USD
Profit = 493.02 - 274 - 5.544 = 213.476 USD = 2.13476 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC

Profit from purchasing AM shares at IPO was stated to be 3.72 BTC. So, AM IPO share holders are currently 1.58524 BTC ahead of first day Jalapeno buyers. Difficulty is set to increase by about 10% and the income from the BFL is set to be about 0.1053 BTC/day, which is 1.4742 BTC over 2 weeks. AM dividend will come to about 0.06 BTC over the same period.

That puts AM at 3.78 BTC and BFL at:

14 * 0.168 USD = 2.352 USD
2.13476 BTC + 1.4742 BTC = 3.60896 BTC

By this time next month, a first day Jalapeno will have made at least 1 BTC more profit than an AM IPO share.

So, get your facts straight.

[Mabsark]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

[notme]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.