[LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)

[velacreations]

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

56,000 (bitcoins mined in 2 weeks) x .02 (% of network) = 1120 BTC (mined by 20 TH/s)

1120 BTC / 10,000,000 shares x .7 (30% withheld) = .0000784 btc dividend per share

.0000784 x 26 (per year) / .3 (30% APR) = .0068 btc per share

No one will give Labcoin 30% APR.  70%, maybe.

check my math, it could be wrong.

[1714111171]

1714111171

[1714111171]

1714111171

[bobboooiie]

People who are making math about share price ITT are pretty damn blind... You are basing it on AMs share price when they had NO one to compete with for like 5+ months AND they were selling out the equipment too AND THE SHARE PRICE WAS STILL overpriced at that time as we see it now (30% annual return isnt even close enough in mining world). Labcoin is not going to have even close to the same environment. And dont forget they are already  2-3 weeks behind where they could make make majority of their bitcoins with not much of a hashrate

[VolanicEruptor]

This can anyone run some numbers?  Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc/share is a ridiculous estimate (sorry, but it is).

Assuming the global network hashrate is 6PH by Jan 1 and Labcoin is hashing @ 500TH/s, that is 8.33% of the global network.

A conservitive estimate of global bitcoins mined in a 2 week period is 56,000 (4,000 x 14).

8.33% of 56,000 is 4666.648 bitcoins divided by 10,000,000 shares is .0004666 / share.

~30% is removed for costs/reinvestment etc.

Final result: .0003266/share for the 2 week period. (roughly .0085 annually) for a share price of .0339 @ 25% annual return.

Of course this is entirely unrealistic as nobody would at this point trust labcoin enough to be happy with a 25% annual return.

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

At this rate we will see 2PH/S Total Network hash rate.

So the next step is finding out the percentage of 20TH out of 2000TH.  That one is easy: 1%

Now a total of ~4000BTC are mined every day on the network.  This number never really changes much.. so LC would score 1% of 4000BTC every day.

1% of 4000BTC for LC is 40 BTC/day

Since we would get weekly dividends, we need to multiply 40BTC by 7 days which is 280BTC/week

Now we need to divide 280BTC by 10,000,000 shares which is .000028BTC/share every week

.000028BTC/week works out to .001456BTC/year.  Since share prices seem to reflect 25%-50% return, this means LC should be roughly valued at about double what it is now, with 20TH deployed.    

edit: I didn't see that you wrote "for 30%" return.. in which case we would see share price at .0048

[VolanicEruptor]

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

56,000 (bitcoins mined in 2 weeks) x .02 (% of network) = 1120 BTC (mined by 20 TH/s)

1120 BTC / 10,000,000 shares x .7 (30% withheld) = .0000784 btc dividend per share

.0000784 x 26 (per year) / .3 (30% APR) = .0068 btc per share

No one will give Labcoin 30% APR.  70%, maybe.

check my math, it could be wrong.

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..
edit: I say that because it seems slightly overvalued right now as it is, considering the shit we've been through recently. 

[velacreations]

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..

50% is the lowest APR Labcoin will see for weeks, until they prove things are stable and improving.

@ 1% of the network and 50% APR, the value is .0020 per share. 

[VolanicEruptor]

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..

50% is the lowest APR Labcoin will see for weeks, until they prove things are stable and improving.

Too many bullish speculators.. so I would bet against that.  We'll see..

[velacreations]

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..
edit: I say that because it seems slightly overvalued right now as it is, considering the shit we've been through recently.  

slightly overvalued is an understatement.

[Anotheranonlol]

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s.  Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers?  Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

snapshot of typical labcoin bull, perhaps burnside should of actually locked it off already, for your own good..

[Puppet]

At this rate we will see 2PH/S Total Network hash rate.

...

.000028BTC/week works out to .001456BTC/year.  

You think next year the network will still be at only 2PH??
Current preorders from various vendors, promised to be delivered  this year alone is closer to 10PH.
A year from now, well, all bets are off, except that it wont be anywhere near 2PH.

[bitrich]

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s.  Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers?  Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc doesn't make sense.  There are 10,000,000 shares so that would mean a market cap of 6 BILLION DOLLARS. 

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 per share would be awesome!

[ShroomsKit]

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s.  Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers?  Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

Here is a tip before i put you on ignore: stop typing.

[canth]

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 per share would be awesome!

Yes - it would be at the extreme high end where LC captures well over 10% of the hashrate AND sells a ton of hardware. Consider it a not to exceed, in my opinion.

[guitarplinker]

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 per share would be awesome!

Yes - it would be at the extreme high end where LC captures well over 10% of the hashrate AND sells a ton of hardware. Consider it a not to exceed, in my opinion.

I have a strong feeling it'll be difficult for these shares to even break 0.02 BTC at most. Just a feeling, because that would be nearly 10x the price now. 0.08 BTC would be 40x the current price, I think there's a very slim chance of that ever happening, but who knows.

[velacreations]

.....
If Labcoin controlled:

• 01%, they would mine 504 BTC per difficulty round, 352.8 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00003528 BTC/share/round.
• 02%, they would mine 1,008 BTC per difficulty round, 705.6 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00007056 BTC per share per round.

.....
[/list]

remember those figures?

well, @ 50% APR (fairly generous)
1% - 0.00003528 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0018 btc/share value
2% - 0.00007056 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0036 btc/share value

In 2 weeks, IF 20 TH/s comes online, they'll be worth maximum .0036 btc/share, but more likely .0018 btc/share

If they can maintain that hash percentage (1%) for a month or more, you'll see that APR gradually reduce towards 30% (.003 btc/share).

tl;dr -  The fair value of Lacoin is unlikely to surpass .004 in 2013. Labcoin is currently severely overvalued

[JohnyBigs]

.....
If Labcoin controlled:

• 01%, they would mine 504 BTC per difficulty round, 352.8 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00003528 BTC/share/round.
• 02%, they would mine 1,008 BTC per difficulty round, 705.6 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00007056 BTC per share per round.

.....
[/list]

remember those figures?

well, @ 50% APR (fairly generous)
1% - 0.00003528 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0018 btc/share value
2% - 0.00007056 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0036 btc/share value

In 2 weeks, IF 20 TH/s comes online, they'll be worth maximum .0036 btc/share, but more likely .0018 btc/share

If they can maintain that hash percentage (1%) for a month or more, you'll see that APR gradually reduce towards 30% (.003 btc/share).

tl;dr -  The fair value of Lacoin is unlikely to surpass .004 in 2013. Labcoin is currently severely overvalued

WTF do you know, your a FUD fail

[Bitcycle]

Shocking, FUDsters conclude Labcoin is overvalued.  Well blow me over with a feather.

Calculations are fun, but there's not a single stock price anywhere in bitcoinland that's ever been determined by calculations.

It's all emotion driven, and right now the emotions on Labcoin are low.  If they get substantial hashrate online and that warning removed, well then it might be different.

[velacreations]

WTF do you know, your a FUD fail

so, you expect people to overpay for something that under performs?  or what?  where's your explanation of where those estimates are off?

[velacreations]

Here's from page 1 of this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.0

[dhenson]

The math is off as it is only accounting for 3750 (edit) btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months.  The math below is assuming 4000tbtc per day, but the last few times I've checked it's been over 4500.  It's currently at 5100 btc/day http://blockchain.info/stats

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .002
2% = .004
3% = .006
4% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential.  It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high.  Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

[velacreations]

The math is off as it is only accounting for 3600 btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months.

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .002
2% = .004
3% = .006
4% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential.  It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high.  Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

first they need to achieve 1%, which is still a stretch.  If they get that done by Mid Oct, THEY MIGHT be able to pull off 50 TH/s by Nov 1.

So, until Nov 1, they really aren't worth .002 btc, by your calculations. 

And I agree, the risk is very high, they are unlikely to be able to achieve 1% by Nov 1.