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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 857078 times)
Rampion
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August 16, 2013, 06:26:10 PM
 #21

I agree that until Gox pulls its shit together the price is distorted by the unavailability of steady USD withdrawals,  which make the BTC price higher than it should be. From the other side, biggish SEPA transfers worked charms for me (and I realized that high 5 figures withdrawals clear faster than smaller ones, some times I received my money into my account 2 days after requesting the withdrawal. Thus, transfers are processed in order is BS: bigger transfers have priority, I experienced that myself).

This leads me to think that whale traders/market makers outside the US are not having this big problems everybody is whining about in these forums (note that everybody complaining requested to withdraw very small amounts, 10k or less), so all this "Gox is broke" song may be blown out of proportion.

We'll see, personally I'm betting on Gox solving its problems and I did not move my funds to Bitstamp. I'm in the EU and not in the US, this obviously had his weight in my decision, but nevertheless any problem Gox might be suffering will hit the other exchanges for sure.

I don't believe you.

If it was true what you said, then arbitrage would work, and the price gap would not be widening.

Are you willing to back up your statement with a screenshot?

I could, but this is not a court room and I don't see why I should prove nothing to you. If you believe I would lie on this matter because of some twisted reason or hidden agenda, so be it and just don't take into consideration what I wrote,  for me you can f*ck off (EDIT: unless you are willing to put your money where your mouth is, betting against me on the fact that I received those withdrawals very fast).

BTW: last withdrawal I requested was on late June. I did not request any withdrawal in July or August, I just share my experience because in that period (end of June) people was already whining a lot about delayed withdrawals, so I was pretty nervous because I needed a biggish amount fast. Money arrived within the same week.

Regarding USD, check the post history of mrbigg and epsiking, they have biggish volumes (trusted status, etc.) and they reported about  receiving their money in the last weeks/months.

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August 16, 2013, 09:20:16 PM
 #22

I agree that until Gox pulls its shit together the price is distorted by the unavailability of steady USD withdrawals,  which make the BTC price higher than it should be. From the other side, biggish SEPA transfers worked charms for me (and I realized that high 5 figures withdrawals clear faster than smaller ones, some times I received my money into my account 2 days after requesting the withdrawal. Thus, transfers are processed in order is BS: bigger transfers have priority, I experienced that myself).

This leads me to think that whale traders/market makers outside the US are not having this big problems everybody is whining about in these forums (note that everybody complaining requested to withdraw very small amounts, 10k or less), so all this "Gox is broke" song may be blown out of proportion.

We'll see, personally I'm betting on Gox solving its problems and I did not move my funds to Bitstamp. I'm in the EU and not in the US, this obviously had his weight in my decision, but nevertheless any problem Gox might be suffering will hit the other exchanges for sure.

I don't believe you.

If it was true what you said, then arbitrage would work, and the price gap would not be widening.

Are you willing to back up your statement with a screenshot?

If this were true there would be no price gap. People would wire in multiple tens of thousands into the other exchanges, buy the shit out of btc, transfer it to Gox and sell the shit out of it, cash out, rinse and repeat. The two prices would converge in a matter of days.
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August 16, 2013, 11:08:01 PM
 #23

I agree that until Gox pulls its shit together the price is distorted by the unavailability of steady USD withdrawals,  which make the BTC price higher than it should be. From the other side, biggish SEPA transfers worked charms for me (and I realized that high 5 figures withdrawals clear faster than smaller ones, some times I received my money into my account 2 days after requesting the withdrawal. Thus, transfers are processed in order is BS: bigger transfers have priority, I experienced that myself).

This leads me to think that whale traders/market makers outside the US are not having this big problems everybody is whining about in these forums (note that everybody complaining requested to withdraw very small amounts, 10k or less), so all this "Gox is broke" song may be blown out of proportion.

We'll see, personally I'm betting on Gox solving its problems and I did not move my funds to Bitstamp. I'm in the EU and not in the US, this obviously had his weight in my decision, but nevertheless any problem Gox might be suffering will hit the other exchanges for sure.

I don't believe you.

If it was true what you said, then arbitrage would work, and the price gap would not be widening.

Are you willing to back up your statement with a screenshot?

If this were true there would be no price gap. People would wire in multiple tens of thousands into the other exchanges, buy the shit out of btc, transfer it to Gox and sell the shit out of it, cash out, rinse and repeat. The two prices would converge in a matter of days.

Bet on it, multiple end of June SEPA withdrawals that cleared in less than 10 business days, escrow john K.

RationalSpeculator
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August 16, 2013, 11:27:24 PM
 #24

I agree that until Gox pulls its shit together the price is distorted by the unavailability of steady USD withdrawals,  which make the BTC price higher than it should be. From the other side, biggish SEPA transfers worked charms for me (and I realized that high 5 figures withdrawals clear faster than smaller ones, some times I received my money into my account 2 days after requesting the withdrawal. Thus, transfers are processed in order is BS: bigger transfers have priority, I experienced that myself).

This leads me to think that whale traders/market makers outside the US are not having this big problems everybody is whining about in these forums (note that everybody complaining requested to withdraw very small amounts, 10k or less), so all this "Gox is broke" song may be blown out of proportion.

We'll see, personally I'm betting on Gox solving its problems and I did not move my funds to Bitstamp. I'm in the EU and not in the US, this obviously had his weight in my decision, but nevertheless any problem Gox might be suffering will hit the other exchanges for sure.

I don't believe you.

If it was true what you said, then arbitrage would work, and the price gap would not be widening.

Are you willing to back up your statement with a screenshot?

I could, but this is not a court room and I don't see why I should prove nothing to you. If you believe I would lie on this matter because of some twisted reason or hidden agenda, so be it and just don't take into consideration what I wrote,  for me you can f*ck off (EDIT: unless you are willing to put your money where your mouth is, betting against me on the fact that I received those withdrawals very fast).

BTW: last withdrawal I requested was on late June. I did not request any withdrawal in July or August, I just share my experience because in that period (end of June) people was already whining a lot about delayed withdrawals, so I was pretty nervous because I needed a biggish amount fast. Money arrived within the same week.

Regarding USD, check the post history of mrbigg and epsiking, they have biggish volumes (trusted status, etc.) and they reported about  receiving their money in the last weeks/months.

So when asked to backup your claim you start swearing at me  Angry

Betting based on your screenshots, that can easily be faked?  Huh
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August 17, 2013, 12:02:33 AM
 #25

Is it possible to really do any analysis on MtGox "fake" numbers?  I mean the MtGox price is reflecting a risk premium that didn't exist (or existed to a lesser extent) in the past so any trends drawn from it are based on a false assumption that the "risk premium" has been consistent.  It hasn't, it has been rising over time.  As an example I wouldn't see MtGox price rising >$120 to have any trend validity if the price on other exchanges remains <$100.  That certainly could happen if the spread widens further as confidence declines.  On the other hand if MtGox resolves their issues I could see the MtGox price fall dramatically as the risk premium shrinks but that says nothing about the overall exchange rate trend if the price doesn't fall on other exchanges.

Another way to put it.  Each % that MtGox trades over bitstamp (or the average of all other exchanges if you want) reflects the risk that one will never get their USD.  That risk premium can trade independently of the Bitcoin exchange rate trend.  In theory you could have overall prices trending down but MtGox prices trending up at the same time.  Unless you normalize for that you are essentially charting the product of two independent variables and assuming the output reflect the change in one of those variables.

This ^.

Gox's numbers are bogus.

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Rampion
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August 17, 2013, 08:33:07 AM
 #26

I agree that until Gox pulls its shit together the price is distorted by the unavailability of steady USD withdrawals,  which make the BTC price higher than it should be. From the other side, biggish SEPA transfers worked charms for me (and I realized that high 5 figures withdrawals clear faster than smaller ones, some times I received my money into my account 2 days after requesting the withdrawal. Thus, transfers are processed in order is BS: bigger transfers have priority, I experienced that myself).

This leads me to think that whale traders/market makers outside the US are not having this big problems everybody is whining about in these forums (note that everybody complaining requested to withdraw very small amounts, 10k or less), so all this "Gox is broke" song may be blown out of proportion.

We'll see, personally I'm betting on Gox solving its problems and I did not move my funds to Bitstamp. I'm in the EU and not in the US, this obviously had his weight in my decision, but nevertheless any problem Gox might be suffering will hit the other exchanges for sure.

I don't believe you.

If it was true what you said, then arbitrage would work, and the price gap would not be widening.

Are you willing to back up your statement with a screenshot?

I could, but this is not a court room and I don't see why I should prove nothing to you. If you believe I would lie on this matter because of some twisted reason or hidden agenda, so be it and just don't take into consideration what I wrote,  for me you can f*ck off (EDIT: unless you are willing to put your money where your mouth is, betting against me on the fact that I received those withdrawals very fast).

BTW: last withdrawal I requested was on late June. I did not request any withdrawal in July or August, I just share my experience because in that period (end of June) people was already whining a lot about delayed withdrawals, so I was pretty nervous because I needed a biggish amount fast. Money arrived within the same week.

Regarding USD, check the post history of mrbigg and epsiking, they have biggish volumes (trusted status, etc.) and they reported about  receiving their money in the last weeks/months.

So when asked to backup your claim you start swearing at me  Angry

Betting based on your screenshots, that can easily be faked?  Huh


I can give you any proof you want through John K or another trusted mod if you are willing to put real money where your mouth is, for example official bank statements and access to my Gox account via team viewer or similar. So, willing to bet 100BTC that I told the truth, or you believe me now?

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August 17, 2013, 09:28:19 AM
 #27

Can anyone join in ? I would like to bet that Rampion is telling the truth. IMO he has been consistently honest and open about his personal experience with Gox over the last few months - he has not changed his story once. I really don't know what all the fuss is about - you doubters are arguing about his withdrawals PRIOR to the Gox announcemement and 'stoppage'. Why  Undecided ... who cares ?
If I were Rampion I would also be insulted by your attitudes.

Can we let The Master's new thread return to chart analysis now please ?

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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August 17, 2013, 09:47:40 AM
 #28

MtGox:



Bitstamp:



Since they are almost relatively identical, and Gox has highest market volume I use MtGox data. Also Sierra has very usable feed for Gox data while bitstamp data obtained through bitcoincharts crunches.

RationalSpeculator
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August 17, 2013, 01:15:30 PM
 #29

Can anyone join in ? I would like to bet that Rampion is telling the truth. IMO he has been consistently honest and open about his personal experience with Gox over the last few months - he has not changed his story once. I really don't know what all the fuss is about - you doubters are arguing about his withdrawals PRIOR to the Gox announcemement and 'stoppage'. Why  Undecided ... who cares ?
If I were Rampion I would also be insulted by your attitudes.

Can we let The Master's new thread return to chart analysis now please ?


Good catch.

I have experienced Rampion not to be honest about his speculative analyses. He acts as if he has made many good valuable calls, whereas I have experienced him to have made very bad calls.

Rampion, I believe you now that you received a larger SEPA withdrawal ordered before the time Gox his US accounts got frozen. But indeed, it's of little value.


Phoenix, not believing someone and asking for proof, is not an insult. It's being sceptical. If someone experiences scepticism as insult, and gets angry for that, that is their personal issue.

Telling someone to 'f*ck off' however is swearing at someone. Feeling angry for being cursed at is not a personal issue but a healthy response I think.
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August 17, 2013, 02:38:44 PM
 #30

Rational speculator: being called a liar = being insulted.

And I've made both good and bad calls about Bitcoin short term price movements, but I never lied as you say:  show proof if you accuse other people of lying or just put your money where your mouth is.

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August 17, 2013, 03:30:25 PM
 #31

Sorry dude, I think your response to Rampion was curt and disrespectful. If you had actually taken the time to read his post more thoroughly and responded more politely the whole scenario would have been avoided. He was offering helpful and honest advice and I believe he was shocked by your response. I certainly was. But then I had read his post thoroughly, and his previous ones about his SEPA experience so I knew exactly what he was talking about.

As for his speculative analyses, I like them ... it's the speculation forum after all. Believe what you want to. Everyone 'talks their book' from time to time. Sometimes intentionally, sometimes its perception bias  -all part of the game. In any case I dont see it's relevance to this discussion.
Everyone makes good and bad calls. Everyone knows or should know that. Every trader is wrong probably more than 50% of the time. It's cutting the losers and running the winners that makes money in the long term IMO.

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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August 17, 2013, 04:17:20 PM
 #32

Thanks for the kind words phoenix - and sorry for derailing your thread lucif

Making a long story short: bigger or smaller Gox is indeed delaying transfers, especially usd, which is distorting the exchange rate. The question is how much? Gox always worked well for me, so I'll bet on them solving their problems. We'll see.

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August 17, 2013, 05:42:24 PM
 #33

Sorry dude, I think your response to Rampion was curt and disrespectful.

I do not agree with your conclusions but I do thank you for sharing your critical opinion on my actions.

I prefer not to be called dude if that is ok?

If you had actually taken the time to read his post more thoroughly and responded more politely the whole scenario would have been avoided. He was offering helpful and honest advice and I believe he was shocked by your response. I certainly was. But then I had read his post thoroughly, and his previous ones about his SEPA experience so I knew exactly what he was talking about.

I'm sorry you were shocked by my response.

You are right that I did not read his post detailed enough to notice that his successful SEPA withdrawal was of little value to the discussion.

As for his speculative analyses, I like them ... it's the speculation forum after all. Believe what you want to. Everyone 'talks their book' from time to time. Sometimes intentionally, sometimes its perception bias  -all part of the game. In any case I dont see it's relevance to this discussion.

The relevance to the discussion for me is that I have experienced him not being honest in this other matter, hence my scepticism.

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August 17, 2013, 05:46:12 PM
 #34

Rational speculator: being called a liar = being insulted.

And I've made both good and bad calls about Bitcoin short term price movements, but I never lied as you say:  show proof if you accuse other people of lying or just put your money where your mouth is.

Where did I call you a liar? Or accused you of lying?

I will admit that I suspected you of conscious lying about this SEPA.

Though I don't think that anymore. I'm sorry for having thought that.

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August 17, 2013, 06:02:52 PM
 #35

Can we stop the personal vendetta? Thank you.

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August 17, 2013, 06:17:26 PM
 #36


I prefer not to be called dude if that is ok?


LOL
That's fine Mr/Mrs/Ms RationalSpeculator Sir/Madam/dudette (delete as appropriate)

It was quite clear from your words that you thought he was lying ... there is very little difference between that and calling him a liar ... it's just semantics. Nice to see you own it and apologise  Wink

More masterluc, less drama.

Absolutely
Just drop it RS (can I call you that ?) and move on ...


"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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August 18, 2013, 01:43:26 AM
 #37

MtGox:



Bitstamp:



Since they are almost relatively identical, and Gox has highest market volume I use MtGox data. Also Sierra has very usable feed for Gox data while bitstamp data obtained through bitcoincharts crunches.

For sierracharts, you can get data direct from bitstamp and avoid bitcoincharts entirely though correct?

https://www.sierrachart.com/index.php?l=doc/Bitcoin.php#SetupInstructions

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August 18, 2013, 02:00:55 AM
 #38

For sierracharts, you can get data direct from bitstamp and avoid bitcoincharts entirely though correct?

https://www.sierrachart.com/index.php?l=doc/Bitcoin.php#SetupInstructions

Ah, thanks. Now it uses direct api to bitstamp. This is nice. I update SC very rarely as I fear to break its to be working under wine lol Smiley

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August 18, 2013, 07:24:17 AM
 #39



Weekly just closed above SMA 20


Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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August 18, 2013, 09:22:23 AM
 #40

Much of uncertainty is on market, as in each end of big consolidation.

On one hand we have a daily (still potential) reverse (bullish) head and shoulders (copyrighted by another analyst, S3052).

On other hand I see a tripple zig-zag bearish wedge here



And on third hand - weak bullish close above middle BB - but I don't really like this candle volume. In this case I wait 1-3 candles to make sure it will stay above. Also in SC feed it didn't closed above.


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