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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921547 times)
lebing
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December 17, 2013, 05:23:59 PM
 #881

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.


Bro, do you even blockchain?
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December 17, 2013, 05:30:52 PM
 #882

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Because people like you still think the price is going up  Grin
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December 17, 2013, 05:42:01 PM
 #883

[...]

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.


His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

On shaky ground? Maybe. "Utter nonsense"? No, absolutely not. If you absolutely cannot comprehend the possibility anymore that bitcoin price might enter a multi-month-to-a-year bear market, you should re-evaluate.
Agreed. Not gonna bet too much on it, though.
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December 17, 2013, 05:54:54 PM
 #884

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.




It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it Smiley

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December 17, 2013, 06:05:09 PM
 #885

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it Smiley

It's a common theme felt by 'bears' on these forums. Bulls are often offended at someone for being objective whilst evaluating the possible direction the price could be heading. I believe it was someone in this thread that said bitcoin has an amazing ability to exceed expectations both up and down. We should never allow our personal invested position to cloud our judgement when attempting to rationally evaluate the situation.

In response to lebing, As you are obviously a bit bullish, perhaps the burden of proof during this price decline is for you to prove to us, why we should start thinking the price will stop going down, and start going up? Something more helpful than an imaginary line would be nice!

lebing
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December 17, 2013, 06:56:27 PM
Last edit: December 17, 2013, 09:03:15 PM by lebing
 #886


In response to lebing, As you are obviously a bit bullish, perhaps the burden of proof during this price decline is for you to prove to us, why we should start thinking the price will stop going down, and start going up? Something more helpful than an imaginary line would be nice!

Well, I dont make bets on short term movements with bitcoin generally speaking, but time has shown repeatedly just how dangerous it is to bet against bitcoin in the medium/ long term.

The reason why I think this line will hold is simply because its a very different world for bitcoin now than it was 6 months ago in terms of acceptance/ consciousness and overall momentum (The details have been repeated ad infitum elsewhere). Therefore it simply makes more sense from a fundamental perspective that it would continue to go up rather than down. There is simply no reason fundamentally why we should continue to go down. The correction from the bad news on China is already very much baked in imo.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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lebing
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December 17, 2013, 06:57:24 PM
 #887

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.




It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it Smiley

I actually stand to make quite a bit of money should the price go say under 500 however I simply do not see any rational reason why that will happen.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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December 17, 2013, 07:24:52 PM
 #888

[...]

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.


His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

On shaky ground? Maybe. "Utter nonsense"? No, absolutely not. If you absolutely cannot comprehend the possibility anymore that bitcoin price might enter a multi-month-to-a-year bear market, you should re-evaluate.

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.
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December 17, 2013, 07:25:00 PM
 #889

I actually stand to make quite a bit of money should the price go say under 500 however I simply do not see any rational reason why that will happen.

I think you screwed up your post above... otherwise I said stuff I never remember having said :P

Anyway. There's noting rational about this market anyway. Or any market, ever. The only irrational thing is for individuals to somehow think they can "argue" with the market, as if there's a chance they could convince it to go in a more rational direction.

The only thing we have is to judge what is going on is TA, gauging market sentiment, maybe some fundamental analysis. And it looks like we've reached different conclusions based on what we see. You seem to believe in a very quick recovery, faster than ever before (remember: the April recovery was already pretty fast, much faster than the slow correction in 2011).

My view is different: based on the (admittedly short) history of Bitcoin trading there is no occurrence of such a sharp drop being just "shaken off" by the market, and the rally continuing afterwards. You could argue that August 2013 was such a case, but the volatility then was much much lower than the really sharp drops we saw in 2011, April and now (see BBW below). I think it is more likely we will either repeat April (a few more bounces post peak, then a relatively short downtrend of about a month or two), or, if we're unlucky, another 2011 (long, drawn out downtrend, which is probably the scenario lucif puts forward)



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December 17, 2013, 07:35:40 PM
 #890

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

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humanitee
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December 17, 2013, 07:42:54 PM
 #891

I thought you guys were talking about Lucif for a second, lol. Uncannily similar.
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December 17, 2013, 09:11:23 PM
 #892

Luc luc luc - madness  Cheesy He is in Fiat now, so his desire for long bear market is normal )
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December 17, 2013, 10:02:15 PM
 #893

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.



Lol at that line, great use of imagination though, nonetheless... and displays your optimistic personality.
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December 17, 2013, 10:50:58 PM
 #894

Right here it start to look nasty...  Take a deep breath and get ready toride,.   Smiley
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December 17, 2013, 11:50:31 PM
 #895

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.
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December 18, 2013, 12:28:15 AM
 #896

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

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December 18, 2013, 12:40:19 AM
 #897

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).  

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency?  Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity?  At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability.  If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.

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December 18, 2013, 12:48:24 AM
 #898

A brief look at three of Bitcoins bubbles. I've kept the charts as easy for everyone to understand. I have decided no moving averages or other indicator apart from volume and fibs, I feel this makes things a little easier on every ones eyes. 

Please make a note of the percentage increase from base to summit on each chart. Please also make a note of the fib where price begins too recover and subsequently move higher.


My BET is .. The "bear" market (consolidation) will not last more than 3 months. ( and price will not fail under $500 ) ... but who knows ? ( $68/BTC at the end of this year is good for me ... I'm sure bitcoin will survive at least next 5 years ... and 550% is minimum growth per year )
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December 18, 2013, 01:11:36 AM
 #899

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.



it seems we just crossed that trend.

キタ━━━━(゚∀゚)━━━━ッ!!
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December 18, 2013, 01:24:01 AM
 #900

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).  

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency?  Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity?  At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability.  If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.



Okay...but, IMO, you're making a giant assumption here. Why does bitcoin need another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance to prosper longer term? That seems very arbitrary. Even so, why must it be completely accepted and/or reach sustainability now (within 12-18 months) instead of after a couple of years if not decades. Are we really in that much of a hurry? If bitcoin is truly as revolutionary as we'd like to assume, it's not going anywhere. Patience. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither was the internet. Also, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of alternative digital currencies trade with bitcoin, so maybe a great bear market is needed to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

2011 was a great example of how bitcoin not only survived a prolonged crash but came out even stronger. Whose to say that the same thing can't happen again?

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