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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921448 times)
masterluc
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November 10, 2013, 02:14:28 AM
 #261

I perfectly entered here with my markers. I said to myself in April - here must be some huge triangle. On its break up I immediately turn 100% in Bitcoin. This has been materialized. Perfect plan.

I am sorry to disappoint you, but we probably going to tha moon =)

Mtgox 6months triangle is about to break up.



Already broken at bitstamp



Actually I don't really like this weekly cup and handle (V-form, not U), but it is so fucking bullish...



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bitcodo
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November 10, 2013, 05:46:50 PM
 #262



Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?
xephyr
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November 10, 2013, 06:45:47 PM
 #263



Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?

My count shows presently in A of (4)

RyNinDaCleM
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November 11, 2013, 04:27:09 AM
 #264


Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?

My count shows presently in A of (4)



seconded!



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November 11, 2013, 08:09:37 AM
 #265

(A) - >(B)
JustAnotherSheep
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November 11, 2013, 09:29:22 AM
 #266

Forgive me for being the noobish sheep here, but doesn't the master's fancy gear pictures mean we're currently in (3), 4->5?

Still new to this stuff so I have nothing to back it up except for the aforementioned pictures!

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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November 11, 2013, 10:47:21 AM
 #267

I dunno how much change is experienced between his updates though...

Proud Hodler, neither bull nor bear.
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November 11, 2013, 02:48:22 PM
 #268

Forgive me for being the noobish sheep here, but doesn't the master's fancy gear pictures mean we're currently in (3), 4->5?

Still new to this stuff so I have nothing to back it up except for the aforementioned pictures!
Oh nevermind, I'm a bad reader, 3 isn't for this trend but for the historical one.

I didn't even know such a fractal scale was possible with the Elliott waves

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
masterluc
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November 12, 2013, 12:41:14 AM
 #269



Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?
IMO, didn't completed even 3 of 5.

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November 12, 2013, 12:51:07 AM
 #270

Oh, this is lucif?

Always liked his analysis, best here by a mile.


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oda.krell
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November 12, 2013, 10:47:40 PM
 #271

Alright, alright... I've been slamming EW theory in the past but I never actually gave it a real chance. Read up a bit on it tonight, so let's take this baby for a spin...

... aaaand I'm puzzled.

How am I supposed to decide which wave is which? Both divisions I came up with (see below), starting in early July (which I strongly feel needs to be the starting point of whatever exactly we are in now), make equally sense to me.  The thing is, the period from September 1st to October 1st doesn't look like any wave at all, just like treading water. Or maybe the division in my 2nd picture is actually the sub-division of the ongoing wave 3 in the first picture... it's all very, very confusing.






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samurai1200
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November 12, 2013, 11:01:29 PM
 #272

it's all very, very confusing.

EW theory, IIRC, is based on human behavior and emotion as applies to economic action. During a long stagnation period like mid-july to end of august, I would posit a sort of "reset" of human behavior. In this case, your 2nd count seems more 'accurate' (whatever that means).

Hodl for the longest tiem.

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Miz4r
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November 12, 2013, 11:11:20 PM
 #273

I think you're forgetting to count the sub-waves within the larger waves. In this case your wave counts are actually sub-waves of wave (1) in this picture:


Would be nice if bitcoin would exactly follow this pattern but I think in hindsight it's often easier to see and count the waves than try and project them into the future.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
Marbit
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November 13, 2013, 04:26:48 AM
 #274

so where is the top of 3 of 5  Huh
oda.krell
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November 13, 2013, 07:22:07 PM
 #275

Hey! This is fun. Why didn't I do this earlier :D

Okay, so let's say we are in fact in sub-wave 5 inside the bigger wave 3 (assuming beginning of July as the starting point of this period).

According to the EW rules (damn. I sound like a cultist :P) the 3rd wave can't be the shortest, so assuming this plays out according to the rules: since wave 1 was longer than wave 3, wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3. Which sets an upper bound when wave 5 will end (November 25, 26).

In addition, each of the waves seems to have a steeper trend line. Well, the latest wave doesn't really have much to work with, but with the 2 points of contact I found it looks like it is indeed climbing faster than 1 and 3. Which could explain why wave 5 will last shorter than the others.

And that's all I can get out of it. Probably should read a bit more on this, huh?

EDIT: made a mistake with the length of 3, so subtract a day or so from the upper bound

(for shits and giggles, here's my childish drawing)


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xephyr
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November 14, 2013, 09:59:51 PM
 #276

I had to change my wave count and agree that we are in 3 of 5, and may be close to the end of wave 3:



If wave 3 really ends around 450 USD on MtGox a corrective wave 4 down to 260-300 would signal a strong buying opportunity.
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November 14, 2013, 10:03:50 PM
 #277

I had to change my wave count and agree that we are in 3 of 5, and may be close to the end of wave 3:



If wave 3 really ends around 450 USD on MtGox a corrective wave 4 down to 260-300 would signal a strong buying opportunity.

Can you prove we are not in wave 1 (and you will not had to change your wave count in the future) ?
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November 14, 2013, 10:17:31 PM
 #278

Can you prove we are not in wave 5?
samurai1200
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November 14, 2013, 10:19:17 PM
 #279

Guys, there's no "proving" here. If something could be proved, we'd all be rich (then subsequently, very broke).

A better phrasing might be "can you convince me that..."

Hodl for the longest tiem.

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November 14, 2013, 10:34:11 PM
 #280

Shit after shit. :-)

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