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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940424 times)
windjc
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December 07, 2013, 07:30:12 PM
 #641

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?
dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on


Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.
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December 07, 2013, 08:11:14 PM
 #642

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?

Can you clarify what you are even talking about?

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.

Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.

So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?

I believe he is talking about the big wallet holders, such as the one last night who took advantage of the misinterprited China news to drop 20% of their stash (10,000 BTC ) that caused a 100,000 coin avalanche and allowed them to buy at 40% lower.. Notice how these things come.. first its the doom and gloom, then the press, the all you need is a match to light the panic farts and if your in the position to do this then.. down it comes, but the ask depth really hasn't changed much.. Up we go, unless they think they can pull it off again but I don't think there are that many (inexperienced) traders left now that will have the confidence to take it that much lower before plowing on up through the thin ask side

Where did you find out somebody dropped 10k stash?  Or just speculation?
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December 07, 2013, 08:18:20 PM
 #643

man you dont know when the market is ready to move on, this is zero sum game and if u think the next rally will be fuelled fully by new deposits u are naive, next push will be fuelled in a large part by pig money and there are plenty of people who can lose more money  

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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December 07, 2013, 08:24:08 PM
 #644

Tuesday will show the truth. ($400 or ATH)
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December 07, 2013, 08:25:17 PM
 #645

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

You can't be serious.  Big money institutions don't enter markets at it's peak.  They enter markets when it has been gutted to near death.  Bitcoin is at it's peak right now in terms of good publicity and price.

If you are referring to coinbase as GS, i doubt it.  Coinbase seems VERY shady, but that doesn't mean it is linked to GS just because former GS worker started coinbase.
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December 07, 2013, 08:37:10 PM
 #646

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

^
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December 07, 2013, 08:47:00 PM
 #647

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

^

$2k - $4k is far from final push. Final push is $50k+ or ZERO( but Bitcoin is ANTI-fragile).

edit: but 20% is enough to hold.
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December 07, 2013, 10:05:45 PM
 #648



You don't make extra coins by holding you make extra coins by selling at the right moment and buying back in at the right moment. If you bought say 300 coins at $13.5 as you say and held till now you would only have 300 coins but if you sold at the highs and bought at the lows your accumulation could be infinite. wtf is your trading?

There is something to be said about a person like you who tries to give lessons to another when talking in hindsight.

wtf are you doing in an analysis thread giving advice if your whole strategy revolves around buy and hold anyway?

If you would have read my other posts you would have seen I spotted 1240 as being my sell point which was 100% accurate and I now have more coins than if I hadn't sold and just held per your advice. If I took your advice my wallet would be much thinner.


I was trying to warn you. Usually one MINUTE trader cannot predict $945 - $576  crash (or $75-$1200 bubble). I hope you are well.
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December 07, 2013, 10:34:00 PM
 #649

Big is relative word )

And "they just press BUY/SELL" is an oversimplification to make towards such a range of sizes.

Great analysis btw. I stand corrected on the part where I said around $800 would be bottom.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
waveaddict
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December 07, 2013, 10:40:50 PM
 #650

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?
dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on


Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.

EW theory is a speculative theory which works for every market. The S-curve is not even even in the same category, so there really isn't a strong argument that they are incompatible.

Commodities almost always fall during stock market declines so your second point doesn't really make sense.

I suggest that you take the time to understand market dynamics and EW before you claim that materlucs is imagining a relationship which isn't there.

windjc
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December 07, 2013, 10:45:16 PM
 #651

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and goes down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.
windjc
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December 07, 2013, 10:52:05 PM
 #652

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

^

I missed that quote from earlier. Well, if Masterluc is definitely out of bitcoin forever, then I will miss his day to day analysis. Fortunately, being great at short term trends does not preclude knowledge on long term trends. Or, if it does, then I guess we will all see each other at $0 and this thread can be the historical evidence of everything that happened.
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December 07, 2013, 10:53:19 PM
 #653

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and go down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

Your second statement isn't even worth a response because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

windjc
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December 07, 2013, 10:56:12 PM
 #654

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and go down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

I'm not even going to respond to your second statement because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

ORLY? So gold did not go up during the last stock downturn and financial banking crisis? And it hasn't been going down for a while now as the stock market hits ATHs?

I obviously wasn't talking about oil or corn or toothpaste. I was talking about precious metals.

And your explanation of EW not working is priceless. Since it has all these different waves there can be 1500 examples of how it fits or doesn't, leaving us to cherry pick which ones we give it credit for.

But that aside, I ask only this --> if we hit new ATHs for bitcoin within the next year, what does that say about Luc's wave theory?
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December 07, 2013, 11:02:32 PM
Last edit: December 07, 2013, 11:17:32 PM by waveaddict
 #655

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and go down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

I'm not even going to respond to your second statement because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

ORLY? So gold did not go up during the last stock downturn and financial banking crisis?

No, gold fell from ~1000 to ~650 during the 2008 banking crisis.

Oil went from $150 to $40

Copper went from 4.2 to 1.2

etc...

"But that aside, I ask only this --> if we hit new ATHs for bitcoin within the next year, what does that say about Luc's wave theory?"

Nothing. EW helps traders gauge risk. All Luc is saying is that a very large motive count could be considered complete and that it would be foolish to not take, at least, some profit from a longer term viewpoint. Profiting from EW is all about expanding gains and limiting loses from likely and unlikely scenarios. EW is not about figuring out an absolute EW count and sticking with it no matter what. If a wave movement that contradicted lucs scenario occurred, luc would obviously change his analysis.  

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December 07, 2013, 11:15:06 PM
 #656

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?
dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on


Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.

It´s funny, that you are trying to deconstruct thinking of another person to prove him wrong, when he was repeatedly proven right by the market. Unlike you.
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December 08, 2013, 05:58:23 AM
 #657

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

windjc
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December 08, 2013, 06:09:33 AM
 #658

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

Masterluc,

I think I derailed the thread a bit. It was not my intention. My real intention was to get clarification on your long term projections for btc. Any you care to share in more detail?

edit:  I am also curious why you dont short on the downtrend. Especially if you believe it is a short/mid term trend?
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December 08, 2013, 06:13:02 AM
 #659

Long and painful decline. Are you happy?

windjc
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December 08, 2013, 06:14:26 AM
 #660

Long and painful decline. Are you happy?

I am indifferent. Are you just a trader? Or do you have a belief in the long term viability of btc? Why, not at least short the downtrend?
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