Bitcoin Forum
May 23, 2022, 08:31:37 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 23.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 [37] 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 ... 337 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940424 times)
Coma
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 100


View Profile
December 09, 2013, 12:18:58 PM
 #721

Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?

I remember him saying that he sold 80% of his stash at 1.2k and not buying back yet.
1653337897
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653337897

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653337897
Reply with quote  #2

1653337897
Report to moderator
1653337897
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653337897

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653337897
Reply with quote  #2

1653337897
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1653337897
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653337897

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653337897
Reply with quote  #2

1653337897
Report to moderator
1653337897
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653337897

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653337897
Reply with quote  #2

1653337897
Report to moderator
1653337897
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653337897

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653337897
Reply with quote  #2

1653337897
Report to moderator
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
December 09, 2013, 12:21:52 PM
 #722

From another thread:

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

Something to keep in mind.

I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market.

Loaded is a top 10 bitcoin holder so I would guess he knows some things about this (listed at around 200K bitcoins).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321265.0




Yeah, thanks for stating the obvious, most here know who loaded is.

Doesn't change the fact that you might well disagree with him on this matter.

Phrased in such a general way ("above some volume, TA is useless") I most certainly disagree, doesn't matter if the guy who says it holds 100 or 100k coins.

It's true, "whales" can initiate (or more accurately: accentuate) market movements, but to get a taste how market behavior by whales can also sometimes just be, well, plain dumb, go read some of rpietila's post history :D (no offense rpietila, I enjoy your new style. keep posting)

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
December 09, 2013, 12:36:32 PM
 #723


It's true, "whales" can initiate (or more accurately: accentuate) market movements, but to get a taste how market behavior by whales can also sometimes just be, well, plain dumb, go read some of rpietila's post history Cheesy (no offense rpietila, I enjoy your new style. keep posting)

Yes, I have read a lot of rpietila's posts. He does not seem to a big enough whale to steer the market market much though. 10K coins (which he stats he has) with 80% in storage makes only 2K trading coins.



The point is a different one, though: trading entirely *against* the market is always a risky proposition. Don't know how long you've been trading, but maybe you'll notice it yourself already: risk appetite is not completely independent of what you have to lose. In other words, I'm pretty sure someone who has 100s of millions of USD on the line is not all just going to bet it on one trade, that would be *incredibly* poor risk control, and most certainly means he/she won't hold that kind of money for long.

Point is: just because you have the money to move the market doesn't mean you'll be inclined to do so if there's a real risk the market will move *against* you after all. Hence: I find it very likely large enough whales accentuate inherent market movements, but the idea that whales yank and pull the market in whatever direction they want to is, IMO, somewhat naive.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
December 09, 2013, 12:45:30 PM
 #724

nice thread derail

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
December 09, 2013, 12:55:29 PM
 #725

The point is a different one, though: trading entirely *against* the market is always a risky proposition. Don't know how long you've been trading, but maybe you'll notice it yourself already: risk appetite is not completely independent of what you have to lose. In other words, I'm pretty sure someone who has 100s of millions of USD on the line is not all just going to bet it on one trade, that would be *incredibly* poor risk control, and most certainly means he/she won't hold that kind of money for long.

Point is: just because you have the money to move the market doesn't mean you'll be inclined to do so if there's a real risk the market will move *against* you after all. Hence: I find it very likely large enough whales accentuate inherent market movements, but the idea that whales yank and pull the market in whatever direction they want to is, IMO, somewhat naive.

Yes of course nobody would bet everything on one trade. Thats why they are clever enough to steer the TA-patterns so that the big masses are under their spell, and there is absolutely nothing to do about it. If Loaded or another really big whale decided to stop the price at 1240 at the second peak they could certainly do that. They could certainly also induce the fall and set the bottom price at their wish.


Ah, okay, I see your point now. I also think you're deluded and/or utterly naive, but that's besides the point -- sometimes there's nothing to say between two people rather than "we agree to disagree".

However, your own believes only allow you one rational conclusion: stop trading. You can buy & hold, but since individual participants (that are by and large not subject of the regular TA) "shape" the price anyway, active trading must be pure gambling.

So, are you rational?

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
ft73
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 564
Merit: 508


View Profile
December 09, 2013, 01:55:35 PM
 #726

nice thread derail

+1
Tzupy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 1073



View Profile
December 09, 2013, 02:18:25 PM
 #727

On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events.

To me it looks more like insiders delaying public diffusion of news until their price targets have been met.
Otherwise, it's quite odd for news to follow waves (price movements).

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
wasubii
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448
Merit: 250



View Profile
December 10, 2013, 10:38:29 AM
 #728



Well i was wrong, as always, trend reversed again minutes after my post  Grin Luckily i bought again at $750 in time and have made a nice 45 BTC profit from this trade.



BTC45 profit is v nice - may i ask what your working capital is?
ft73
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 564
Merit: 508


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 02:12:12 PM
 #729

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
December 10, 2013, 02:56:44 PM
 #730



Alright. Time for a preliminary recap. We praise the guy when he's right (and deservedly so :D), but his scenario for the immediate post crash period clearly didn't play out:





In reality, we made a text book recovery over the weekend, and while (to me at least) it is far from sure the July-October rally will continue, the scenario of an immediate deeper crash didn't play out either.





Before some of you blow a fuse or something: I'm not saying this means the correction is over. Or that EW theory is all wrong. Or any other generalized bullshit like that. Just that luc's prediction about the immediate post-crash development was wrong.


Conspiracy theory section

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years... maybe he was thinking to re-buy at <50% if price fell sufficiently low, so his post crash prediction was based a bit on wishful thinking.... or maybe even a tiiiiny bit of manipulation :D

I'm not complaining, by the way. Luc's post here are always worth reading.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
Chainsaw
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 625
Merit: 501


x


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 02:56:57 PM
 #731

masterluc, thanks for the consistently high quality analysis.
I don't enjoy being on the bear bandwagon, but this time, it seems to be an eventuality.

accord01
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238
Merit: 100


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 03:38:18 PM
 #732

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...

Graph?  Not sure what this means.
sumantso
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000



View Profile
December 10, 2013, 03:42:28 PM
 #733



Alright. Time for a preliminary recap. We praise the guy when he's right (and deservedly so Cheesy), but his scenario for the immediate post crash period clearly didn't play out:





In reality, we made a text book recovery over the weekend, and while (to me at least) it is far from sure the July-October rally will continue, the scenario of an immediate deeper crash didn't play out either.





Before some of you blow a fuse or something: I'm not saying this means the correction is over. Or that EW theory is all wrong. Or any other generalized bullshit like that. Just that luc's prediction about the immediate post-crash development was wrong.


Conspiracy theory section

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years... maybe he was thinking to re-buy at <50% if price fell sufficiently low, so his post crash prediction was based a bit on wishful thinking.... or maybe even a tiiiiny bit of manipulation Cheesy

I'm not complaining, by the way. Luc's post here are always worth reading.

He has been wrong earlier too. He predicted a triangular movement saying 'triangles follow sharp movements'. To his credit he came back later and admitted the prediction not panning out and ended up calling the top correctly.

samurai1200
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 303
Merit: 250


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 03:43:38 PM
 #734

 excellent recap oda.krell.  appreciated.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2772
Merit: 1018



View Profile
December 10, 2013, 03:52:37 PM
 #735

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
December 10, 2013, 04:34:09 PM
 #736

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)


Don't know about that one, but 3 or 4 pages ago, when he called the top, he also predicted we're entering a multi year bear market (based on EW theory, I suppose). That's the "1 or 2 years" i'm refering to.

By the way, even though I'm sceptical we'll really see bearish development for the entire coming year, it's good to at least occasionally *talk* about that possibility:

Most of us look at the all time price graph on a log chart, and it is hard *not* to think that this will continue and continue and continue. I mean, each crash (2011, 2012, twice 2013) turns out just a minimal roadbump in the big picture, with the times between ATHs getting smaller, and the bear markets lasting shorter (this year's bear market: May and June. In 2011: ~ 6 months)

So with that in mind, I also alway think: no big deal. we'll recover soon enough. But it's good to keep in mind that there's always a chance it *could* be different.

Not sure if I'm making myself clear here....  i don't see the signs for a 2 year bear market. But it is good to be prodded once in a while by someone to at least *look* for those signs (even if in the end you conclude there are none).

Jup. That's what I wanted to say Cheesy

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
maz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 100


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 04:38:51 PM
 #737

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)


Don't know about that one, but 3 or 4 pages ago, when he called the top, he also predicted we're entering a multi year bear market (based on EW theory, I suppose). That's the "1 or 2 years" i'm refering to.

By the way, even though I'm sceptical we'll really see bearish development for the entire coming year, it's good to at least occasionally *talk* about that possibility:

Most of us look at the all time price graph on a log chart, and it is hard *not* to think that this will continue and continue and continue. I mean, each crash (2011, 2012, twice 2013) turns out just a minimal roadbump in the big picture, with the times between ATHs getting smaller, and the bear markets lasting shorter (this year's bear market: May and June. In 2011: ~ 6 months)

So with that in mind, I also alway think: no big deal. we'll recover soon enough. But it's good to keep in mind that there's always a chance it *could* be different.

Not sure if I'm making myself clear here....  i don't see the signs for a 2 year bear market. But it is good to be prodded once in a while by someone to at least *look* for those signs (even if in the end you conclude there are none).

Jup. That's what I wanted to say Cheesy

I like to see objective post's like this, refreshing now and again. Thanks.
samurai1200
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 303
Merit: 250


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 04:52:08 PM
 #738

again, nice one oda.krell.

hmm... it looks like its stabilized again at 900 ish, is it due to steadily rise or is there going to be a sharp drop? I'm confused by this.

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion   Cheesy

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
samurai1200
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 303
Merit: 250


View Profile
December 10, 2013, 05:21:19 PM
 #739

again, nice one oda.krell.

hmm... it looks like its stabilized again at 900 ish, is it due to steadily rise or is there going to be a sharp drop? I'm confused by this.

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion   Cheesy

Do you reckon it might fly down to $550 or maybe even $500? I was looking at another inflationary commodity, gold. It has a period in the late 80's where it double-peaked, went down, came back up in price then went right back down again to roughly the same value the first dip was in. Think it could behave like that?

Personally, no I don't think so, especially if there is a steady decline over days. Then again, just from memory, bitcoin's exchange rate rarely has a 'steady decline' over several days... a sell-off seems to always be triggered by 1-2 big sells, which act as an impulse to a (lately) well-damped system. Go back and try to find those days and you'll see what I mean. As an engineer, every time there is a sell-off, I can't help but see some variation on this (except inversed), but that might just be me:


I think if we're going to see any kind of $500-550 levels in the next week or so, it'll be for just a few moments (like, seconds-minutes), so have your orders set there well ahead of time.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
JustAnotherSheep
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 239
Merit: 100



View Profile
December 10, 2013, 06:27:10 PM
 #740

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion   Cheesy
I wouldn't say that. Human emotion and psychology is of a fractal nature, and this is reflected in markets too. It's fascinating to think about!

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...
It's already been crossed on Bitstamp, BTC-E and BTCChina. I'm thinking trend reversal?

edit: crossed on Gox now too

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 [37] 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 ... 337 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!