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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921661 times)
windjc
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December 14, 2013, 08:56:25 AM
 #801

Your analysis was spot on. My guess is once this move is complete, the price goes down to test the previous low.

You keep persisting bearish, huh? Well, its taking it sweet time. I'll say it again, we have about 2 weeks for the bears to move this market down, because after the first of the year, as larger money starts to move in, we will be in rally mode again. Its just a matter of time now.

Bearish more than ever  Cheesy
You could be right also. If by Monday the price is not significantly down from these levels, I might review my position.

So you are expecting a break out from this triangle to the downside this weekend?

Well, you have about 30 hours. Because by mid Sunday the market will be expecting new money coming in Monday and will probably start to head up.
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John999
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December 14, 2013, 09:33:29 AM
 #802

Your analysis was spot on. My guess is once this move is complete, the price goes down to test the previous low.

You keep persisting bearish, huh? Well, its taking it sweet time. I'll say it again, we have about 2 weeks for the bears to move this market down, because after the first of the year, as larger money starts to move in, we will be in rally mode again. Its just a matter of time now.

Bearish more than ever  Cheesy
You could be right also. If by Monday the price is not significantly down from these levels, I might review my position.

So you are expecting a break out from this triangle to the downside this weekend?

Well, you have about 30 hours. Because by mid Sunday the market will be expecting new money coming in Monday and will probably start to head up.

Yes I give it until Monday to break to the downside.
Bimmerhead
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December 14, 2013, 01:42:12 PM
 #803

Has masterluc left us? 
Rampion
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December 14, 2013, 01:47:00 PM
 #804

Has masterluc left us? 

Yes, till 2015-2016


maz
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December 14, 2013, 03:10:03 PM
 #805

Where have I seen this before?


Nice, you should start your own thread Brisance, you have some interesting thing's to say Smiley

Thanks for posting your thoughts.

oda.krell
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December 14, 2013, 03:50:16 PM
 #806


Plot twist:

Brisance = masterluc


Impossible?



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JustAnotherSheep
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December 14, 2013, 04:00:18 PM
 #807


Plot twist:

Brisance = masterluc


Impossible?



He doesn't have the same posting and analysis style, and lacks the eastern european flare in his writing

A worthy substitute, but nevertheless no clown prophet  Cry

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
ElectricMucus
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December 14, 2013, 04:18:41 PM
 #808

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?
windjc
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December 14, 2013, 04:45:11 PM
 #809

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?

Yes absolutely but as I said previously this exact trading pattern I've seen before and all three times it's sold off heavily.

Could very well be consolidation if that's what you feel I only post my thoughts, please feel free to think I'm a complete idiot, I simply share my observations nothing more.

I never said this would sell off I'm simply posting the beginnings of possible stormy weather ahead.

To be honest me drawing a triangle is not the point "no pun intended" it's simply to emphasis the squeeze going on.

When were the three other times and what kind of a sell off did we have? Serious question.
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December 14, 2013, 04:56:31 PM
 #810


Plot twist:

Brisance = masterluc


Impossible?
He doesn't have the same posting and analysis style, and lacks the eastern european flare in his writing

A worthy substitute, but nevertheless no clown prophet  Cry

Most likely British, he used the term Jog on!  Cheesy Cheesy
windjc
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December 14, 2013, 04:58:02 PM
 #811

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?

Yes absolutely but as I said previously this exact trading pattern I've seen before and all three times it's sold off heavily.

Could very well be consolidation if that's what you feel I only post my thoughts, please feel free to think I'm a complete idiot, I simply share my observations nothing more.

I never said this would sell off I'm simply posting the beginnings of possible stormy weather ahead.

To be honest me drawing a triangle is not the point "no pun intended" it's simply to emphasis the squeeze going on.

When were the three other times and what kind of a sell off did we have? Serious question.


Go back a few pages here on this thread where I'm speaking with masterluc and you will see one such posting of mine.

Ok. You called the last drop which was aided by news. You also called it to go to $400 and said it was the big one. So you were 1 for 3 on that call with some help from the Chinese government.

We might go lower from here. I think everyone sees that possibility, but what you bears ignore is the gargantuan amount of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy and the money on the order books.

You've got 2 weeks to drive this lower and then you can throw your EW 5 capitulation charts out the window.
oda.krell
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December 14, 2013, 05:17:13 PM
 #812

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?

Bit of a passive-aggressive tone, but in principle, valid remark.

No offense to masterluc or Brisance, but to me it seems too many traders concentrate almost exclusively on "candle reading", and all that comes with it (triangles, points of resistance/support).

Here's a very, very shaky idea I play around with that deviates from that method. Don't worry, I will point out just how arbitrary and non-empirical it is in a bit.

That said, here's the observation: I think I noticed that a volume-price median tends to work as an attractor, and price development in relation to that median might be a predictor for how a consolidation period resolves after a crash.

Note: this is pure eyeballing so far, and cherrypicking of the data points. In the pictures below, I mark the highest point of VWAP and the lowest point with RED circles. In picture 2, you'll notice that I might have as well picked the first green circle as the highest point, in which case the indicator wouldn't have worked the same. I would argue that it's different because the green circles constitute another high/low cycle, but that's somewhat arbitrary. So I've been trying to come up with a way to algorithmically test this, but for now, here's the result of cherry picking, applied to April, June/July and now.

The red line is the exactly middle point between the highest and lowest 2h VWAP (works equally well, or bad, with 1h, 6h).

My claim is that this line works as a price attractor at first, and then, in the few days following a crash, how price relates to this line predicts further resolution of the cycle. Price mainly stays above the median line, more or less bounces off of it upwards? Breakout upwards is likely. Similarly for price staying below, bouncing off downwards.

Point is, it's too early to conclusively say how price moves around the median this time, but the first signs point towards downward resolution. If in the next days we stay below the median, encountering resistance when trying to move above it, I will take that as a pretty bearish sign.

On the other hand, I always believe strong enough news can turn things around, so I'm not religiously following this... it's more the idea that, in absence of other strong signals, I will have to work with this.






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samurai1200
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December 14, 2013, 05:26:31 PM
 #813

 Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

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oda.krell
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December 14, 2013, 06:40:52 PM
Last edit: December 14, 2013, 08:42:46 PM by oda.krell
 #814

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

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RyNinDaCleM
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December 14, 2013, 10:59:04 PM
 #815

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

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December 14, 2013, 11:28:12 PM
 #816

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new Cheesy On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But  in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
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Brisance
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December 14, 2013, 11:39:46 PM
 #817

Forget Triangles and Polygons Let's Talk Fibs!


So how much longer can Bitcoin keep bouncing off this .236 Fib all you Bulls?


https://www.tradingview.com/x/9JwWXBTL/
2017orso
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December 14, 2013, 11:54:42 PM
 #818

Until it doesn't need to anymore.

That looks bullish, so does bitcoin.  long=win win
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December 15, 2013, 12:00:59 AM
 #819

Until it doesn't need to anymore.

That looks bullish, so does bitcoin.  long=win win
could you elaborate? how does it look bullish? not talking about long term predictions, just in the short term.  Smiley

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December 15, 2013, 12:13:10 AM
 #820

not a big proponent of TA in these instances was just having fun but sure.

from the low to 1040 flagpole with bullish pennant and extremely strong support = takeoff
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