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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940433 times)
windjc
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December 14, 2013, 04:45:11 PM
 #801

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?

Yes absolutely but as I said previously this exact trading pattern I've seen before and all three times it's sold off heavily.

Could very well be consolidation if that's what you feel I only post my thoughts, please feel free to think I'm a complete idiot, I simply share my observations nothing more.

I never said this would sell off I'm simply posting the beginnings of possible stormy weather ahead.

To be honest me drawing a triangle is not the point "no pun intended" it's simply to emphasis the squeeze going on.

When were the three other times and what kind of a sell off did we have? Serious question.
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December 14, 2013, 04:56:31 PM
 #802


Plot twist:

Brisance = masterluc


Impossible?
He doesn't have the same posting and analysis style, and lacks the eastern european flare in his writing

A worthy substitute, but nevertheless no clown prophet  Cry

Most likely British, he used the term Jog on!  Cheesy Cheesy
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December 14, 2013, 04:58:02 PM
 #803

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?

Yes absolutely but as I said previously this exact trading pattern I've seen before and all three times it's sold off heavily.

Could very well be consolidation if that's what you feel I only post my thoughts, please feel free to think I'm a complete idiot, I simply share my observations nothing more.

I never said this would sell off I'm simply posting the beginnings of possible stormy weather ahead.

To be honest me drawing a triangle is not the point "no pun intended" it's simply to emphasis the squeeze going on.

When were the three other times and what kind of a sell off did we have? Serious question.


Go back a few pages here on this thread where I'm speaking with masterluc and you will see one such posting of mine.

Ok. You called the last drop which was aided by news. You also called it to go to $400 and said it was the big one. So you were 1 for 3 on that call with some help from the Chinese government.

We might go lower from here. I think everyone sees that possibility, but what you bears ignore is the gargantuan amount of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy and the money on the order books.

You've got 2 weeks to drive this lower and then you can throw your EW 5 capitulation charts out the window.
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December 14, 2013, 05:17:13 PM
 #804

Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?

Bit of a passive-aggressive tone, but in principle, valid remark.

No offense to masterluc or Brisance, but to me it seems too many traders concentrate almost exclusively on "candle reading", and all that comes with it (triangles, points of resistance/support).

Here's a very, very shaky idea I play around with that deviates from that method. Don't worry, I will point out just how arbitrary and non-empirical it is in a bit.

That said, here's the observation: I think I noticed that a volume-price median tends to work as an attractor, and price development in relation to that median might be a predictor for how a consolidation period resolves after a crash.

Note: this is pure eyeballing so far, and cherrypicking of the data points. In the pictures below, I mark the highest point of VWAP and the lowest point with RED circles. In picture 2, you'll notice that I might have as well picked the first green circle as the highest point, in which case the indicator wouldn't have worked the same. I would argue that it's different because the green circles constitute another high/low cycle, but that's somewhat arbitrary. So I've been trying to come up with a way to algorithmically test this, but for now, here's the result of cherry picking, applied to April, June/July and now.

The red line is the exactly middle point between the highest and lowest 2h VWAP (works equally well, or bad, with 1h, 6h).

My claim is that this line works as a price attractor at first, and then, in the few days following a crash, how price relates to this line predicts further resolution of the cycle. Price mainly stays above the median line, more or less bounces off of it upwards? Breakout upwards is likely. Similarly for price staying below, bouncing off downwards.

Point is, it's too early to conclusively say how price moves around the median this time, but the first signs point towards downward resolution. If in the next days we stay below the median, encountering resistance when trying to move above it, I will take that as a pretty bearish sign.

On the other hand, I always believe strong enough news can turn things around, so I'm not religiously following this... it's more the idea that, in absence of other strong signals, I will have to work with this.






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December 14, 2013, 05:26:31 PM
 #805

 Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

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December 14, 2013, 06:40:52 PM
Last edit: December 14, 2013, 08:42:46 PM by oda.krell
 #806

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

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RyNinDaCleM
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December 14, 2013, 10:59:04 PM
 #807

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

oda.krell
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December 14, 2013, 11:28:12 PM
 #808

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new Cheesy On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But  in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

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Brisance
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December 14, 2013, 11:39:46 PM
 #809

Forget Triangles and Polygons Let's Talk Fibs!


So how much longer can Bitcoin keep bouncing off this .236 Fib all you Bulls?


https://www.tradingview.com/x/9JwWXBTL/
2017orso
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December 14, 2013, 11:54:42 PM
 #810

Until it doesn't need to anymore.

That looks bullish, so does bitcoin.  long=win win
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December 15, 2013, 12:00:59 AM
 #811

Until it doesn't need to anymore.

That looks bullish, so does bitcoin.  long=win win
could you elaborate? how does it look bullish? not talking about long term predictions, just in the short term.  Smiley

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December 15, 2013, 12:13:10 AM
 #812

not a big proponent of TA in these instances was just having fun but sure.

from the low to 1040 flagpole with bullish pennant and extremely strong support = takeoff
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December 15, 2013, 12:29:49 AM
 #813

I don't think anyone knows what will happen now, it's really a 50/50 guess whether we'll break up or down from here. Better both have some fiat and BTC ready for when it breaks out. If we survive the entire weekend without a sell-off I think chances will be higher we are going up.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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December 15, 2013, 02:03:58 AM
 #814

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.


Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new Cheesy On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But  in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

Sure! Fibo can be applied to any type of price chart. Fibo is everywhere, really.

I was checking it out using standard candlestick charts and it is interesting how it likes to create a range around this level. Now, the 38.2 and 61.8 levels reside just below and just above respectively, and are heavily used in target determination for retraces... and though the 50% isn't technically a fibo level, it is a round number, so it's included in the retracement tool on most charting apps. A large part of what you are observing is Fibo in action (falling short corresponds to a 38.2%, and rising above corresponds to the 61.8%). That said, I am curious to see if there is more going on here than just typical Fibo.

Please understand that I am not trying to debunk your observations. Only giving some constructive criticism with hopes of helping you to fine tune your methods.
You are one of the few regular posters that aren't so over-the-top with one sided bias, that I like to see what you have to say in your analyses. Smiley

Brisance
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December 15, 2013, 02:10:38 AM
 #815

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the median mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.


Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new Cheesy On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But  in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

Sure! Fibo can be applied to any type of price chart. Fibo is everywhere, really.

I was checking it out using standard candlestick charts and it is interesting how it likes to create a range around this level. Now, the 38.2 and 61.8 levels reside just below and just above respectively, and are heavily used in target determination for retraces... and though the 50% isn't technically a fibo level, it is a round number, so it's included in the retracement tool on most charting apps. A large part of what you are observing is Fibo in action (falling short corresponds to a 38.2%, and rising above corresponds to the 61.8%). That said, I am curious to see if there is more going on here than just typical Fibo.

Please understand that I am not trying to debunk your observations. Only giving some constructive criticism with hopes of helping you to fine tune your methods.
You are one of the few regular posters that aren't so over-the-top with one sided bias, that I like to see what you have to say in your analyses. Smiley


China's Fib Broken Plus lot's of Divergence between gox/btcchina going on.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DAFkqrrC/
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December 15, 2013, 02:30:58 AM
 #816

I know I piss a few Bulls here off with my triangles "ElectricMucus & windjc" and lack of consolidation areas so if anyone knows me I like to see things from both sides of the fence and be totally impartial so to prove myself here is a Bullish prediction.


How about some Parallelograms?






In the short term if we get a serious breakdown of 870 that brings us under for more than a few hours the Bullish theory is gone. Every attempt under 870 lasted for a mere few hours so keep a close watch of 870 as it's been holding up since the 9th of December.

Just to clarify, you didn't piss me off. I respect the time you are taking to analyize thee charts and post them here. That is valuable and useful perspective to have.

I have been bearish for a week and am expecting to be bearish the rest of December. I just am giving the perma bears a good ribbing because we are not breaking down the way we were "suppose" to. And the longer we fight lower resistance levels and/or the longer we consolidate in a channel, the more bullish the market becomes.

In my opinion, barring some unforeseen catastrophic news, Bitcoin is headed north again soon. The only question is how long is the bear/pseudo-bear market going to last before we do. And right now the bears are not doing a very good job of pushing the market down.
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December 15, 2013, 02:33:00 AM
 #817

870
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December 15, 2013, 06:09:51 AM
 #818

870

Somebody's watching you Grin

Take cover!!

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December 15, 2013, 08:58:17 AM
 #819

Let's check in with our bullish theory.

I won't be trading today until more clarity over direction but here's an update none the less.



Very interesting indeed. We are now into Sunday, which is typically mildly bullish in anticipation of new funds on Monday. So, can we stay around this level for another day?

Could we simply be range trading between $850-$1050?  It sure as hell does NOT feel like it with everyone so bearish, but how bullish would it be if we were actually range trading? Very.
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December 16, 2013, 11:36:33 AM
 #820

All this guessing.... You could also read tea leaves or go to the fortune teller of your choice with similar results!  Tongue

Try to underestand that the future is not determinated by the past, especially not in terms of BTC/USD! Obama has to fart and all your calculation becomes invalid...
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