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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921775 times)
Lady_Luck
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December 07, 2013, 02:44:22 AM
 #601

I found this chart and it's  pretty similar to the one being painted here.
http://i.imgur.com/YiMzdkY.png

But as much as I can  like the the fact that the pattern isn't misshape i don't like their proportion in time and space.

I don't know if you saw that triple top in the S&P 500, may be I'm not the only one to see time more relevant than price targets, so what about this  :

http://i.imgur.com/fYFAeE9.png

It would allow a bear market with a more realistic (understand higher than... a dollar or ten) lower target, and would place the end of the actual bull market later than now.

Staring with a significant low li'd see more {2} as a WXY, it make more sense to me on the scale of time.
The rule of  wave 3 being the longest wouldn't be broken, and the time between every waves 1 to 3 (and every sub-waves included ) would equal the time between every waves and sub-waves 4 to 5.

Also it would  match with the sentiment of people (when reaching past top/low)  and with the fact that $32 wasn't breach in April.
In my opinion only more people cashing out at higher prices to be a  millionaire would justify the wiping-out of most of bitcoin history.
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December 07, 2013, 02:57:36 AM
 #602





The problem with this count is the WXY in 2011. Y must go below W unless it's a triangle. So the $7.22 high was indeed a 1 of some degree while the $1.994 low was the wave-II. The more recent highs can count to be a series of 1-2's which would still make this wave-III

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December 07, 2013, 03:28:13 AM
 #603

now that OP is bearish the amount of chart posted is insane  Grin Grin Grin Grin

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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December 07, 2013, 08:31:54 AM
 #604

I bet we'll see 700$ (bitstamp).
400
$300-400 was my original low count as well, back when I thought wave 5 would end at 1200, as bottoms have consistently been 3-4x lower than bubble tops.

However, seeing as wave 5 ended kind of prematurely now (we could've gone much higher if it wasn't for the Chinese news imo) and without as much momentum during the pop, do you think there's a chance of a higher bottom at around $500? Going by "the higher you fly, the harder you'll fall" gut instinct heh.

I want to know where to catch the knife  Grin

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December 07, 2013, 10:53:05 AM
 #605

thank you for the wonderful information you give in this thread, masterluc!

+1
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December 07, 2013, 11:06:07 AM
 #606

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again. Smiley

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

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December 07, 2013, 11:08:50 AM
 #607

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again. Smiley

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

He definitely is. His "end of 3 years bullish market" is bullshit though but he is getting followers and such bold claims can help him a bit to move markets where he wants.


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Rampion
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December 07, 2013, 11:14:56 AM
 #608

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. Tongue I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again. Smiley

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

He definitely is. His "end of 3 years bullish market" is bullshit though but he is getting followers and such bold claims can help him a bit to move markets where he wants.

Agreed on that being BS, there's no reason for that to happen.

masterluc
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December 07, 2013, 11:28:05 AM
 #609

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

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December 07, 2013, 11:36:26 AM
 #610

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

For the record: I think you are terribly wrong with that. Bear markets have been shorter and shorter - and so have been the run ups.

Bubbles are getting shorter and more contained, both in the way up and in the way down. They are also getting closer in time.

masterluc
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December 07, 2013, 11:41:33 AM
 #611

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

Macno
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December 07, 2013, 11:55:20 AM
 #612

Do you really think you should compare the global stock markets with bitcoin?
If we go to 100 USD or lower, we`re talking about a market cap of less than 1,2 Billion USD.
That`s a single MidCap/SmallCap stock.
Do you think bitcoin will become more or less useless again (i.e. only drugsellers and gamblers will use it, as in 2009-2012)?

(honest question, I`ve learned a long time ago not to make fun of EW (it`s just too expensive)...though I haven`t heard anything vom good old Bob Prechter and his SP500 top calls for a while...).
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December 07, 2013, 01:18:32 PM
 #613

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.
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December 07, 2013, 01:21:40 PM
 #614

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.


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December 07, 2013, 01:23:38 PM
 #615

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.
If lucif is right you lose a couple of hundred bux, if not less. If you are right you gain >$1.2k. That's a good bet Cheesy

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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December 07, 2013, 01:52:50 PM
 #616

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.
If lucif is right you lose a couple of hundred bux, if not less. If you are right you gain >$1.2k. That's a good bet Cheesy

I can only gain or lose 1 coin. A Bitcoin is a Bitcoin is a Bitcoin. And furthermore, the chance of a new high is 20 percent only, according to the count of the maestro.
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December 07, 2013, 02:20:58 PM
 #617

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.



Impressive chart. IMO BTC will play as a contrary asset, doing the opposite as the stock markets will do.

Thus I join the crowd expecting a new ATH in the next few months. Probably by 3/4 months, and surely before 12 months. I think it's more probable we break ATH in the next 30 days that not doing it till 2016/2017 as lucif expect.

Nevertheless, big kudos to lucif and his no bullshit approach. While others miss their predictions over and over while they brag about how much money they do by day trading (and they have to give pompous and complex explanations for that), lucif just gives straight to the point analysis and buy/sell calls that speak for themselves.

I think we all agree that lucif has won the prize of best analyst in 2013.

Lucif: you should start managing people's funds for a cut of the profits, this is your time my friend Smiley

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December 07, 2013, 02:23:19 PM
 #618

And BTW: the "I'm afraid we are going to the moon" post when we were at $145 is probably the best quote coming from the speculation subforum in 2013 Wink

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December 07, 2013, 03:26:46 PM
 #619

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

What does bb zone stand for?
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December 07, 2013, 03:35:18 PM
 #620

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

What does bb zone stand for?

"bollinger band"


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