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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941445 times)
Hfleer
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August 18, 2013, 05:44:40 PM
 #41

Just really range bound lately.  Would like to see it pick a direction.

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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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BrightAnarchist
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August 19, 2013, 12:20:58 AM
 #42

Just really range bound lately.  Would like to see it pick a direction.

I don't know what's going to happen with Bitcoin but the stock and bond markets are toast. Major top with huge divergence in the A/D line. Get ready guys... crash season is coming (September/October/November) Grin
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August 19, 2013, 05:10:23 AM
 #43

Price behaviour showing some pretty erratic behavior now. It simply is not allowed to decrease.

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August 19, 2013, 06:49:11 AM
 #44

well, looks like the direction was picked  Shocked

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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August 19, 2013, 10:48:57 AM
 #45

IMO we reached a midterm top
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August 19, 2013, 11:03:18 AM
 #46

Yeah, I'm not buying this 30k rally on Mt. Gox.

More like people leaving Gox to sell elsewhere. - speculation
masterluc (OP)
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August 19, 2013, 09:27:07 PM
 #47

SPX broke down ma50


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August 19, 2013, 10:25:40 PM
 #48

Yeah, I'm not buying this 30k rally on Mt. Gox.

More like people leaving Gox to sell elsewhere. - speculation

This is my belief mainly due to the lack of follow through of buying on all other exchanges in any meaningful manner.

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samurai1200
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August 19, 2013, 10:33:28 PM
 #49

Yeah, I'm not buying this 30k rally on Mt. Gox.

More like people leaving Gox to sell elsewhere. - speculation

This is my belief mainly due to the lack of follow through of buying on all other exchanges in any meaningful manner.

+1 here. price gap only growing wider.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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August 19, 2013, 10:39:12 PM
 #50

Yeah, I'm not buying this 30k rally on Mt. Gox.

More like people leaving Gox to sell elsewhere. - speculation

This is my belief mainly due to the lack of follow through of buying on all other exchanges in any meaningful manner.

+1 here. price gap only growing wider.
MtGox has more volume these days than the other exchanges combined, which disagrees with the exchange migration hypothesis. Furthermore, if you see the Bitstamp charts the trend looks pretty healthy by itself, with unwavering volume since the July bottom. Therefore, the Bitstamp price looks solid to me.
samurai1200
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August 20, 2013, 03:41:16 AM
 #51

...
MtGox has more volume these days than the other exchanges combined, which disagrees with the exchange migration hypothesis. Furthermore, if you see the Bitstamp charts the trend looks pretty healthy by itself, with unwavering volume since the July bottom. Therefore, the Bitstamp price looks solid to me.

For the most part, I agree with you. But as a sanity check, consider this scenario:

Tomorrow, without warning, MTGox closes down trading operations indefinitely, with a press release saying all trading is halted and all users are asked to initiate withdrawals of BTC and fiat. Do you think that in all that panic, BitStamp's price won't go down? Logically, it should go UP, as people with orders at Gox would now want to place them at BitStamp/others, but I get the feeling the panic sellers would be doing what they do best.

My intuition tells me that we'd see some weird panic-sell price falloff for a few days, and then in the same amount of time, a return to somewhere around the daily SMA200 (currently $88.63 on BitStamp). Ever since the beginning of this year, ~$100/BTC has "felt" like a fair price to me, FWIW.

I'm not a giant forex or btc trader, but an avid follower of the markets, at least.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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August 20, 2013, 09:43:35 AM
 #52

MtGox has more volume these days than the other exchanges combined, which disagrees with the exchange migration hypothesis. Furthermore, if you see the Bitstamp charts the trend looks pretty healthy by itself, with unwavering volume since the July bottom. Therefore, the Bitstamp price looks solid to me.
[/quote]

Doesn't necessarily disagree with the hypothesis. It might just be intensifying migration.

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SkRRJyTC
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August 20, 2013, 10:49:54 PM
 #53

Ever since the beginning of this year, ~$100/BTC has "felt" like a fair price to me, FWIW.

Me too.  Feels exactly like it did during the period of time my friends coined as '$5 forever'....

It was during this time that I bought all of my friends BTC....
masterluc (OP)
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August 21, 2013, 12:32:21 AM
 #54

In a case of bearish wedge triggering (need to break 101.65 to confirm):


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August 21, 2013, 12:37:29 AM
 #55

In a case of bearish wedge triggering (need to break 101.65 to confirm):


Ahhh, that's what I like to see. This is what I've bet on.  Cool
masterluc (OP)
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August 21, 2013, 12:42:47 AM
 #56

This wedge clears out the count I have. Tripple zigzag perfectly fits here.


Pruden
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August 21, 2013, 10:25:27 AM
 #57

MtGox has more volume these days than the other exchanges combined, which disagrees with the exchange migration hypothesis. Furthermore, if you see the Bitstamp charts the trend looks pretty healthy by itself, with unwavering volume since the July bottom. Therefore, the Bitstamp price looks solid to me.

Doesn't necessarily disagree with the hypothesis. It might just be intensifying migration.

Hey, you were right. You know who's migrating to Bitstamp? 2k BTC buy-whales (level up from the 1k whales we first saw when the MtGox problems started). In consequence, the price is crashing upwards. Grin

Anyway, the bid side in MtGox is becoming exhausted, I will keep a close watch for the next 24 hours.
masterluc (OP)
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August 21, 2013, 06:20:02 PM
 #58

FOMC Minutes Show Broad Support for Bernanke Taper Timeline

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/fomc-minutes-show-broad-support-for-bernanke-tapering-timeline.html

samurai1200
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August 21, 2013, 07:10:21 PM
 #59

Bitstamp and BTCe have been spending a lot of time in the RSI-14 hourly overbought region last day or so, while MTGox is sitting right in the middle, only ever briefly touching 70 @ RSI-14 hourly. More evidence that price at lesser exchanges is still linked to MTGox prices.

Bitstamp: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg2zigHourlyztgSzbgBza1gEMAzm1g19za2gEMAzm2g31zi1gRSIzv
BTCe: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg2zigHourlyztgSzbgBza1gEMAzm1g19za2gEMAzm2g31zi1gRSIzv

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
masterluc (OP)
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August 27, 2013, 12:17:03 AM
 #60

Eh?





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