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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940425 times)
bitcodo
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December 06, 2013, 11:11:30 AM
 #561

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

This is very worrying.

Also:
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At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.
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molecular
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December 06, 2013, 11:17:11 AM
 #562

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.

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December 06, 2013, 11:21:49 AM
 #563

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.


I would love to have bear market for a year. Would give me a chance to keep increasing my stash.

I consider BTC as a game. If it goes to 0, ah well. But it is more likely to succeed in which case I may be able to retire on a beach with parties, booze and girls Grin

Regarding 'pissed', I think he was referencing Seleme. He always comes across in an abrasive way. I banned him from Worldcoinforums long back.

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December 06, 2013, 11:24:50 AM
 #564

Let's crucify lucif!!  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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I find he is falling back into his old pattern of wanting the market to do what he thinks it is going to do rather than using his considerable skills to read it.

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Can see why some people didn't like you now.

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Being bullish and bearish is OK but this such an obvious bullshit claim it's laughable.

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utter bullshit.

Okurkabinladin
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December 06, 2013, 11:27:22 AM
 #565

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I noticed too. Anyway, ML originally suggested, that we might see top between 2-4k before Christmas. What I do know, that I am not going all in before New Years Eve. This entire situation seems awfully familiar.
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December 06, 2013, 11:30:11 AM
 #566

Disregard lucif at your peril. Smiley

I'm glad he still shares with us.
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December 06, 2013, 11:31:48 AM
 #567

I'm glad as well, some great calls there, including the memorable 'I'm afraid we are going to the moon' at 145 breakout
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December 06, 2013, 11:31:50 AM
 #568

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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December 06, 2013, 11:32:30 AM
 #569

Disregard lucif at your peril. Smiley

I'm glad he still shares with us.

I'm glad too.
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December 06, 2013, 11:45:43 AM
 #570

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means
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December 06, 2013, 11:46:30 AM
 #571

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.


I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  Tongue

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  Roll Eyes

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December 06, 2013, 11:46:55 AM
 #572

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

hah - great spot Grin

masterluc
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December 06, 2013, 11:47:14 AM
 #573

I know my count misses final sharp move up. But failed hourly sma200 was always unbeatable during bubbles and provided support for bubble EW count. And now it failed and don't want to backup. I assume here count is finished.

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December 06, 2013, 12:00:43 PM
 #574

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

I call the very bottom of wave C capitulation. If you have a better term for it, please enlighten me.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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December 06, 2013, 12:10:04 PM
 #575

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.


I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  Tongue

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  Roll Eyes

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii Smiley

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.
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December 06, 2013, 12:36:12 PM
 #576

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii Smiley

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.

It is possible! Which is why you don't trade solely based on EW. Wink

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December 06, 2013, 01:49:00 PM
 #577

Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


Nice, but please post this chart in a new extra thread.

I want to laugh at the hate filled responses! Grin
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December 06, 2013, 02:02:37 PM
 #578

amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.


I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  Tongue

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  Roll Eyes

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii Smiley

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.

I don't necessarily disagree with this analysis, but wouldn't the fact that MTGOX's cashout issues effect the bottom (as in making the bottom higher than anticipated, because people have money stuck on exchanges and have no choice but to buy back at low prices)
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December 06, 2013, 02:24:21 PM
 #579

Forgive my ignorance, but the first pic shows "C" never going below "4"... so could you say ~$500 is the bottom?

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lucas.sev
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December 06, 2013, 02:25:40 PM
 #580

Forgive my ignorance, but the first pic shows "C" never going below "4"... so could you say ~$500 is the bottom?

No, he said 'but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)'
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