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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940472 times)
bitcodo
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December 10, 2013, 06:36:58 PM
 #741



http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2013-04-10&e=2013-04-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=100&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

SMA 200 April
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ft73
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December 10, 2013, 06:52:55 PM
 #742

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion   Cheesy
I wouldn't say that. Human emotion and psychology is of a fractal nature, and this is reflected in markets too. It's fascinating to think about!

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...
It's already been crossed on Bitstamp, BTC-E and BTCChina. I'm thinking trend reversal?

edit: crossed on Gox now too

Recovered VWAP, SMA100, SMA200.
Sure, it's low volume, but this rebound does not lack strength ...

Next stop around 1080$?
Manticore
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December 10, 2013, 08:45:16 PM
Last edit: December 10, 2013, 09:10:53 PM by Manticore
 #743

I'm a huge lucif / masterluc fan as I think he provides some of the only real insight on this entire Speculation forum.

And I also agree, like many, that the clouds in the overal economic markets are ominous. A lot of markets could top out and what would happen to Bitcoin if the bottom dropped out in the overall markets? It's difficult to call tops when governments are creating massive artificial asset bubbles. I think the markets hold out longer than people think....

Regarding Bitcoin, I am no longer the pessimist I once was. I've always loved the technology and have held coins but didn't like last April's rise. My previous posts centered upon Bitcoin bubbles and rigged exchanges....Well, IMO it's clear to see I was correct about the rigged exchanges. I am no longer sure Bitcoin is a bubble or I believe it is something that will continue inflating because there will always be reasons for it to inflate and I don't see how it can truly ever deflate barring some major event or government action, etc.

I haven't posted in awhile but have been reading the thread. I also warned about an impending implosion back at 266 but not as eloquently and specifically, to the minute, as lucif. This time -- I don't see a crash -- it may trade sideways and go down a little -- but I do not see a crash. I don't see it approaching new highs over the next couple of weeks, but I also see too many potential reasons for holders to continue keeping it up.



xephyr
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December 10, 2013, 08:49:31 PM
 #744

I agree completely, masterluc always has well reasoned opinions. I am very interested in his alternate wave count if we make new all time highs in the next week or so.
ft73
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December 10, 2013, 10:32:29 PM
 #745


Recovered VWAP, SMA100, SMA200.
Sure, it's low volume, but this rebound does not lack strength ...

Next stop around 1080$?

Close, Gox peaked at 1068$.
By the way, i tried to short it a bit on Bitstamp from 960$ (it looked legitimate) and i hurted myself :|
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December 10, 2013, 10:34:04 PM
 #746

hmm... I'm wondering what my best move would be then, jump back from Fiat to Bitcoin or hold onto my FIAT in the hopes it might find its way back down to about $600 or $700. I don't have enough really to make it worthwhile splitting half and half.

Not sure about 600$, but 700 is likely.
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December 10, 2013, 11:05:02 PM
 #747

A hint for those who're wondering if the boat left without them: As a general rule, either don't trade at all, or if you trade: don't wait too long.

What I mean in particular is that, given the correction we just saw, you had two realistic options, and one unrealistic one.

The unrealistic one first: you're as good as luc, and you traded the swing perfectly (let's assume he did for a moment :D)

Okay, so you're not as good at reading the market... what are your other options then? The obvious one, often repeated by some of the big holders actually, like Rampion: just buy & hold. Which means during this swing, you would have done nothing.

Problem solved?

No, because I know that's not what I want, so I'm going to guess you don't want that either. You'd prefer to a) insure your investment against total loss, and b) you'd like to occasionally *profit* from the swings (i.e. your coin stash is bigger than before).

So I always cringe a bit when I read those tortured "Should I buy back?!" posts, or the ones that ask over and over "Should I sell already?!".

The answer is: yes. If you trade at all, trade (relatively) often.

That doesn't mean twice a day, not even twice a week, but instead of *wondering* if a correction is over, you *buy* if it seems to go up again, but be ready to *sell* as soon as it looks like the recovery was a bull trap after all.

I don't mean to sound like giving trite advice. The devil is obviously in the details, and you still need to familiarize yourself with some basic amount of TA to get a feeling for the market. But the single most important thing I had to learn in the past few months, and that I still have to bang into my head at each opportunity is that, if you're not sure, either act fast, or don't act at all.

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samurai1200
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December 10, 2013, 11:11:19 PM
 #748

A hint for those who're wondering if the boat left without them: As a general rule, either don't trade at all, or if you trade: don't wait too long.

What I mean in particular is that, given the correction we just saw, you had two realistic options, and one unrealistic one.

The unrealistic one first: you're as good as luc, and you traded the swing perfectly (let's assume he did for a moment Cheesy)

Okay, so you're not as good at reading the market... what are your other options then? The obvious one, often repeated by some of the big holders actually, like Rampion: just buy & hold. Which means during this swing, you would have done nothing.

Problem solved?

No, because I know that's not what I want, so I'm going to guess you don't want that either. You'd prefer to a) insure your investment against total loss, and b) you'd like to occasionally *profit* from the swings (i.e. your coin stash is bigger than before).

So I always cringe a bit when I read those tortured "Should I buy back?!" posts, or the ones that ask over and over "Should I sell already?!".

The answer is: yes. If you trade at all, trade (relatively) often.

That doesn't mean twice a day, not even twice a week, but instead of *wondering* if a correction is over, you *buy* if it seems to go up again, but be ready to *sell* as soon as it looks like the recovery was a bull trap after all.

I don't mean to sound like giving trite advice. The devil is obviously in the details, and you still need to familiarize yourself with some basic amount of TA to get a feeling for the market. But the single most important thing I had to learn in the past few months, and that I still have to bang into my head at each opportunity is that, if you're not sure, either act fast, or don't act at all.

Good advice. It's tough to do while I hold a day job  Wink

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rampantparanoia
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December 10, 2013, 11:12:50 PM
 #749

either act fast, or don't act at all.

sound advice.
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December 10, 2013, 11:44:00 PM
 #750

Good advice. It's tough to do while I hold a day job  ;)

Then the second part of "either act fast, or don't act at all." should apply :D

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xephyr
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December 10, 2013, 11:47:21 PM
 #751

Though, I've done fairly well going by a simple rule that the market value tends to be attracted to the mean, and I've basically gone by a strategy of as soon as I see hype about a bubble, double the current value, take 10% off for error's sake and put up a standing order for that value.

Once it sold, I check the mean value and put up a standing order to buy back at 20% over the mean. Doing that I clawed my way up from 0.1 to 0.3 BTC. If I buy back now I do not lose anything, I sold this time when the value of 0.3BTC was $984, and did a short term trade to round off the number at $300 from $298.61 which was annoyingly close to $300. Its not an optimal strategy, but it did something for me. I've been expecting something that didn't happen, and put a standing order in for $400 to play it safe. It was a long way to fall, I couldn't see it going all the way back down to below the value where the bubble started like one normally sees. I was off by $150 with the dip that happened, it bottomed out at $550. The current behavior of the market has completely dumbfounded me, so I haven't been able to do any proper damage control. I want to learn something but I can't understand what is going on and what I might expect, even reading through this thread I'm unlcear whats going on.

So yeah, I'm confused more than anything. I'm not trying to be thick, but markets aren't easy to grasp. I don't really want to do nothing, so I'm still willing to make a chance. Would it be reasonable to expect a dip? I don't know. Surely flying this high above the mean is not sustainable?

If you believe we are in a long term bull market when you buy bitcoin is not very relevant except for short term anxiety you might have to endure if the market goes against you. Anyone who buys and holds for six months has been well rewarded so far.

It is very hard to call short term bottoms but you can wait for a day when the market sells off on heavy volume to gain a better entry price. But be prepared for a paper loss and hold long term, have patience. On the other hand if you believe we just started a bear market the recent price action gives you a chance to cash out. So are you a bull or a bear?
JustAnotherSheep
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December 11, 2013, 01:27:38 AM
 #752

This thread lacks triangles



This would fit the bulltrap scenario I think

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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December 11, 2013, 01:29:28 AM
 #753

Bitcoin, give me one ending diagonal that breaks down.  Cheesy
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December 11, 2013, 01:48:53 AM
 #754

Masterluc, please weigh in on this surprisingly resilient price action but with low volume.  We need some guidance!
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December 11, 2013, 05:09:55 AM
 #755

Masterluc, please weigh in on this surprisingly resilient price action but with low volume.  We need some guidance!
The volume is currently 75 at Btcchina and 20 at MtGox and Bitstamp - this is not a low volume.
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December 11, 2013, 09:06:19 AM
 #756

Masterluc, please weigh in on this surprisingly resilient price action but with low volume.  We need some guidance!
The volume is currently 75 at Btcchina and 20 at MtGox and Bitstamp - this is not a low volume.

Nope.  The rise continued at a good volume over the last day.

We are now, however at the very moment at a very precarious little cliff.  If this is a bull trap this is just about the perfect opportunity for the jaws to close...  Cross your fingers longs.  We will see in a few hours IMO.
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December 11, 2013, 09:18:55 AM
 #757

Masterluc, please weigh in on this surprisingly resilient price action but with low volume.  We need some guidance!
The volume is currently 75 at Btcchina and 20 at MtGox and Bitstamp - this is not a low volume.

Nope.  The rise continued at a good volume over the last day.

We are now, however at the very moment at a very precarious little cliff.  If this is a bull trap this is just about the perfect opportunity for the jaws to close...  Cross your fingers longs.  We will see in a few hours IMO.

I think we get 1 more push up before we test. But who knows...
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December 11, 2013, 02:04:31 PM
 #758


We are now, however at the very moment at a very precarious little cliff.  If this is a bull trap this is just about the perfect opportunity for the jaws to close...  Cross your fingers longs.  We will see in a few hours IMO.

I might just change my name to Masterlock.


Let's see if it builds a base after this profit taking is over.  Doesn't look crashy to me.
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December 11, 2013, 03:13:40 PM
 #759

I see a healthy chart on Bitstamp, a rather ugly chart on MtGox. Weird.
Closely monitoring 970$ on Gox ...
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December 11, 2013, 03:54:09 PM
 #760

I see a healthy chart on Bitstamp, a rather ugly chart on MtGox. Weird.
Closely monitoring 970$ on Gox ...

China has lead this downfall, their inability to break 6000 and an increasing ask wall. Seems new money ain't flowing no more..

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