Analysis

[maz]

I see a healthy chart on Bitstamp, a rather ugly chart on MtGox. Weird.
Closely monitoring 970$ on Gox ...

China has lead this downfall, their inability to break 6000 and an increasing ask wall. Seems new money ain't flowing no more..

+1

[Brisance]

Technical analysis aside there seems to be a willingness from the market to push forward.

Fundamentally Bitcoin keeps getting more bad news thrown it's way however one may interpret that news as good or bad. JP Morgan filed for a patent on a Bitcoin like transfer protocol that was mis-reported that they have a patent when in fact they only filed for a patent which will take more than a year to finalize.

France has warned it's citizens about the dangers of trading Bitcoins, MtGox continues to lag and Goxx the community and BTC-e keeps losing traders money.

The recent list goes on and on, either the community shrugs it off and pushes forward or we get yet another correction.

My advice is watch out for 900 there has been a lot effort to hold it even though we have dipped below it several times so I'm watching to see if it continues to hold to confirm another push to 1k.

There was a lot of very heavy buying pushing us into 1k from more than 1 whale, they may not wish to see their investment tank so I'm watching 900 closely for confirmation of another push to 1k.

I would recommend extreme caution if we get to or just past 1k I foresee a lot of people wanting to exit there as they don't want to get left holding the bag if we were to drop again. If we don't hold 900 I foresee playing around in the mid 750's to mid 850's for a day or so until either more bad news or something positive.

[JustAnotherSheep]

I think so to, im speculating we are now drawing the second shoulder on an inverted head and shoulder that started on dec 5 and have neck line from 1100 to 1000 (on gox). The target price should be a bit higher than ATH.

Looks more like a cup n' handle!  



Now to see if there will be another rally forming the handle, in that case I guess we'll see a continuation of Wave 5

[samurai1200]

Well this is a little weird. Cup and handle is typically a bullish continuation. But JUST before the start of this formation we had a double top.

If you include the double top formation, the formation of a "handle" would make the whole pattern look like an inverse head and shoulders (bearish).

Also, bitcoin don't give a shit.

[lebing]

Also, bitcoin don't give a shit.

/thread

[samurai1200]

It seems like that handle is being drawn exactly as predicted 

On extremely low volume... not sure if/how that effects its validity, but that is a pretty clear picture, innit?

[bitone]

I think so to, im speculating we are now drawing the second shoulder on an inverted head and shoulder that started on dec 5 and have neck line from 1100 to 1000 (on gox). The target price should be a bit higher than ATH.

Looks more like a cup n' handle!  



Now to see if there will be another rally forming the handle, in that case I guess we'll see a continuation of Wave 5

It seems like that handle is being drawn exactly as predicted  

No, it is wishful thinking!

Cup and handle have no sharp "V" bottom AND volume should dry up on the decline and remain lower than average in the base of the bowl. So no Cup and Handle.

[myself]

No, it is wishful thinking!

Cup and handle have no sharp "V" bottom AND volume should dry up on the decline and remain lower than average in the base of the bowl. So no Cup and Handle.

lets cut some noise

[Ozymandias]

Anyone else seeing the triangle that should be breaking in the next day or two? If the breakout, whichever way it goes, is on significant volume than it would follow that it would set the short-medium term trend. It's crunch time for both bears and bulls!

[rampantparanoia]

I bet on this one. Triangles always follow the sharp moves.

wouldn't be surprised if this is just now being realized

[pera]

not exactly what you were waiting for 

[Ozymandias]

not exactly what you were waiting for 

Bottom leg of the triangle still not broken though. There are several factors to consider at this point in time: 1) we are in a rather large consolidation phase between the second top of 1240 and the bottom of 576. 2) The outcome of the breakout from this triangle will likely determine a significant new trend upwards or downwards. 3) Weekend is approaching, and despite the ardent opponents of the weekend dip theory, it would be foolish to discount the lack of flow of funds to the exchanges (potential contributor to bearish outcome as it would be easier to push the price down with less fiat on the exchanges). 4) The cup and handle formation mentioned above (which if it were to complete and breakout on high volume, it would compound synergistically with the triangle mentioned in points 1 and 2

Overall, while I am generally bullish, I'm feeling pretty bearish about the current situation and would not be surprised if we were to test the 576 low, and if broken go down as low as 450 (support from the late November correction

[samurai1200]

Bottom leg of the triangle still not broken though. There are several factors to consider at this point in time: 1) we are in a rather large consolidation phase between the second top of 1240 and the bottom of 576. 2) The outcome of the breakout from this triangle will likely determine a significant new trend upwards or downwards. 3) Weekend is approaching, and despite the ardent opponents of the weekend dip theory, it would be foolish to discount the lack of flow of funds to the exchanges (potential contributor to bearish outcome as it would be easier to push the price down with less fiat on the exchanges). 4) The cup and handle formation mentioned above (which if it were to complete and breakout on high volume, it would compound synergistically with the triangle mentioned in points 1 and 2

Overall, while I am generally bullish, I'm feeling pretty bearish about the current situation and would not be surprised if we were to test the 576 low, and if broken go down as low as 450 (support from the late November correction

Captures my sentiments pretty closely.

^ the fancy way of saying "+1" 

[Harley997]

you telling me we are going down? i bought at mother fuckin 1050

[Ozymandias]

you telling me we are going down? i bought at mother fuckin 1050

I'm absolutely NOT telling you that, I'm only saying that it is a very real possibility. Out of my ass numbers would be 35-40% bullish, 60-65% bearish. I'm looking at this in a pretty detached way, however, as I do not trade (buy and hold all day!) but I do take an academic interest in price movements and am working on honing my chart reading/prediction abilities (yeah, yeah, darts and all that)

[notme]

you telling me we are going down? i bought at mother fuckin 1050

You'll never be able to stay in this market if you fret about the small scale wiggles.  Watch the weekly chart and try to find some bitcoin income.  Sell goods or services, or spend a little bit of your paycheck on bitcoin each pay period.  When prices rise and you are profitable, you can buy goods or services.  If you have the fiat to spend on these things anyway, you can always just rebuy the bitcoins right away.  It will take time to learn what level of investment you are comfortable with.  Understanding how bitcoin works on a technical level really helps me to be comfortable with the future prospects, so I always recommend http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf , but it does require some basic computer science/mathematics knowledge.

[Harley997]

you telling me we are going down? i bought at mother fuckin 1050

You'll never be able to stay in this market if you fret about the small scale wiggles.  Watch the weekly chart and try to find some bitcoin income.  Sell goods or services, or spend a little bit of your paycheck on bitcoin each pay period.  When prices rise and you are profitable, you can buy goods or services.  If you have the fiat to spend on these things anyway, you can always just rebuy the bitcoins right away.  It will take time to learn what level of investment you are comfortable with.  Understanding how bitcoin works on a technical level really helps me to be comfortable with the future prospects, so I always recommend http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf , but it does require some basic computer science/mathematics knowledge.

i have researched bitcoin a bit and read the paper (comprehension is sort of another story at some points). i just shouldnt have been so emotional when i finally got money on exchange and just immediately bought. i didnt even stop to think. i just bought into a frenzy

[notme]

you telling me we are going down? i bought at mother fuckin 1050

You'll never be able to stay in this market if you fret about the small scale wiggles.  Watch the weekly chart and try to find some bitcoin income.  Sell goods or services, or spend a little bit of your paycheck on bitcoin each pay period.  When prices rise and you are profitable, you can buy goods or services.  If you have the fiat to spend on these things anyway, you can always just rebuy the bitcoins right away.  It will take time to learn what level of investment you are comfortable with.  Understanding how bitcoin works on a technical level really helps me to be comfortable with the future prospects, so I always recommend http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf , but it does require some basic computer science/mathematics knowledge.

i have researched bitcoin a bit and read the paper (comprehension is sort of another story at some points). i just shouldnt have been so emotional when i finally got money on exchange and just immediately bought. i didnt even stop to think. i just bought into a frenzy

Historically, bitcoin has been much more forgiving to panic buyers than to panic sellers.

[notme]

Food For Thought.

I want you to pay particular attention to what price the triangle ends at on the first photo then I want you to pay particular attention on the link I provide what is sitting at that exact price.





Now Look At This:

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html

I'm looking, but I don't get it.

[Harley997]

what, the wall?