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oda.krell
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December 07, 2013, 04:33:56 PM
 #621

Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.

I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.


P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

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December 07, 2013, 05:11:13 PM
 #622

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EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

how many times the market ignore the news, not just btc all markets ... u hear that on tv

when the TA become bullish good news is the kicker and TA become bearish news become the kicker, think about the news like a tipping point for a move


just look at all past news good bad and add TA on them to see the kicker

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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December 07, 2013, 05:22:11 PM
 #623

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
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December 07, 2013, 05:59:45 PM
 #624

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?
Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

Hold on here.

You just got through saying that news follows technicals. I generally agree with you.

Then you say that BTC will be bearish for 3 years due to the stock market going down.

Ummmmm....the stock market going down is NOT a technical.

Plus, last time the stock market went down, gold and silver prices started to rally.

So, this is FUD you are pulling out of your ass, not TA.
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December 07, 2013, 06:02:17 PM
 #625

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.
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December 07, 2013, 06:03:39 PM
 #626

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.

Yes, all of this is now on a larger scale. And that is why the price is on a larger scale.
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December 07, 2013, 06:04:04 PM
 #627

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

So you are 100% fiat until 2016?

We getting a quote on that?  Wink
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December 07, 2013, 06:04:54 PM
 #628

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.

Yes, all of this is now on a larger scale. And that is why the price is on a larger scale.


For us to repeat 2011 would mean the price to go back to $40-60.

That ain't happening, unless the price goes back to 0.
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December 07, 2013, 06:05:33 PM
 #629

Hi there,
Could I ask a question as a layman without any grasp of technical analysis, stocks, charts, etc.
What do those of you who are specialists in this field and who do this to earn at least a part-time living or a full-time living think about the reliability of your methods when applied to bitcoin as opposed to major stocks or the forex markets?
Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.

                                                                               
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masterluc
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December 07, 2013, 06:43:08 PM
 #630

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

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December 07, 2013, 06:45:54 PM
 #631

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.
Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

re: ATH. We'll see, I guess. Too far into the big money game for stuff to play out like 2011, IMO.

re: news vs. TA. Never said *TA follows news*. Just that I don't buy the opposite either (*News follows TA*). It's a bit more complicated than that, and you gave a good example (sometimes e.g. price "unlocks" certain events.) (hehehe, no I'm thinking of MMORPGs)

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December 07, 2013, 06:47:20 PM
 #632

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?

Can you clarify what you are even talking about?

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.

Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.

So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?
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December 07, 2013, 06:52:39 PM
 #633

Big is relative word )

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December 07, 2013, 06:53:43 PM
 #634

Are the variables in bitcoin that you don't have anything to compare with, that might throw off traditional analysis?
Thanks.
We live in zombie market. Investors don't give a shit about assets and securities internals. They mostly buy gold (Yahoo, Google papers and all other) not because they need actual gold. The only purpose is to sell later. They call it "financial instrument". Same with Bitcoin. Big money doesn't care about Satoshi whitepaper. They just press BUY and SELL.

They don't even draw attention that Litecoin is shit because overall electrical power on earth is limited, so one fork (Bitcoin) will always take away computation power from other forks (and thus, take away their security). So there will be only One fork in the end (words of Satoshi, Long Fork Theorem).

They just buy, because some ex-Google nerd said it is a digital silver (without any other grounds).

Big money in some meaning are not intelligent. They just buy and sell with only purpose to get more money. They don't care about internals. Every asset is just another financial instrument. You think Bitcoin is something special for them? I don't.

Big money hasn't even invested in Bitcoin. Why do you use this as a reason to suggest that Bitcoin is at "big money's" mercy?

Can you clarify what you are even talking about?

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

And moreso, "big money" in my opinion doesn't just reside in the US. There is some really big money in the Middle East. In India. In Asia and Hong Kong.

Again, not investing in BTC. Yet.

So what is this mysterious big money you are talking about?

I believe he is talking about the big wallet holders, such as the one last night who took advantage of the misinterprited China news to drop 20% of their stash (10,000 BTC ) that caused a 100,000 coin avalanche and allowed them to buy at 40% lower.. Notice how these things come.. first its the doom and gloom, then the press, the all you need is a match to light the panic farts and if your in the position to do this then.. down it comes, but the ask depth really hasn't changed much.. Up we go, unless they think they can pull it off again but I don't think there are that many (inexperienced) traders left now that will have the confidence to take it that much lower before plowing on up through the thin ask side
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December 07, 2013, 06:54:37 PM
 #635

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

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December 07, 2013, 07:03:58 PM
 #636

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Isn't it common knowledge that Coinbase is GS's bitcoin arm? That's how they do things, they take one of their own and make him CEO (Fred Ehrsam in this case) of the company in the sector that they're looking to probe without having to actually take a position in a gray-ish market (and thus saving face if it goes belly up).
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December 07, 2013, 07:09:23 PM
 #637

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?
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December 07, 2013, 07:11:15 PM
 #638

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Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.
I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?
dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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December 07, 2013, 07:27:22 PM
 #639

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on
I took his money, he  probably a bit angry

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December 07, 2013, 07:29:59 PM
 #640

show some respect.

lucif did call two bubble tops + choo choo train to 1k $

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