Analysis

[gotmilk_]

Is that cup and hadle here 4 months long?

I'm thinking about this.

Could we still say it's possible to play out?

We just about reached the left rim of the cup, but the right rim (usually it should be equal price, but it's not in this case) is still $15 or so away. So we haven't really broken out of the handle, have we?

I'm trying to figure out if we could still be in the handle for a while and go back down to something in between 260 and 280 and then start the breakout?

masterluc suggested the handle could be up to 20 days from rim of cup (which was on 7/12), so only a couple of days left.

So... could the handle be longer than that? Is the cup & handle still valid?

'Simplest' solution to keep the pattern alive and also the 20 days intact would be a break above and beyond $315 this week, but I'm not sure that's in the cards from a shorter-term perspective.

Opinions?

Daily MACD turned green so we can expect some grow in next days 

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[windjc]

Is that cup and hadle here 4 months long?

I'm thinking about this.

Could we still say it's possible to play out?

We just about reached the left rim of the cup, but the right rim (usually it should be equal price, but it's not in this case) is still $15 or so away. So we haven't really broken out of the handle, have we?

I'm trying to figure out if we could still be in the handle for a while and go back down to something in between 260 and 280 and then start the breakout?

masterluc suggested the handle could be up to 20 days from rim of cup (which was on 7/12), so only a couple of days left.

So... could the handle be longer than that? Is the cup & handle still valid?

'Simplest' solution to keep the pattern alive and also the 20 days intact would be a break above and beyond $315 this week, but I'm not sure that's in the cards from a shorter-term perspective.

Opinions?

Daily MACD turned green so we can expect some grow in next days 

That didn't last long.

[gotmilk_]

That didn't last long.

Yeah... Still it doesn't take much to flip back green. Also no real volume lately.

[windjc]

Cup and handle triggered well in Bitcoin during consolidation from 266 top in 2013.

For targets use google - everything explained well there.

I'd consider big harm for this pattern - correction below 50% of cup. And more than 20 days. The cup top was out of daily BB and since then price should hit daily 20 sma so it did. Price needs now up to 20 days of consolidation (since top) to bring back daily bb, adx, rsi, ss to low start - as they were too overbought.

Although we still have very few sellers (knock on wood), this "uptrend" is looking pretty weak right now in terms of buy volume. The handle formation is looking even weaker. Your current thoughts?

[ask]

It looks more & more that this is not cup & handle,  but that bitcoin is actually rising using trendline (curve)  started in June.

[windjc]

It looks more & more that this is not cup & handle,  but that bitcoin is actually rising using trendline (curve)  started in June.

Meh. We need more volume.

[masterluc]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

Price left log downtrend channel.
Price made impulsive move up.
Price corrects on decreasing volume.

Despite bubble failed, No mid/long term bullish threat I see so far.

I connect current short term bearish activity with gold making multi year lows. But I think gold is bottoming before multi year rally.

[davidorentol]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

[hdbuck]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

mid-long term means what it means.

even if we dip sub 200 this would not affect overall trendline. or else bitcoin "fails".

[DieJohnny]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

mid-long term means what it means.

even if we dip sub 200 this would not affect overall trendline. or else bitcoin "fails".

how does bitcoin price have anything to do with bitcoin failure? Failure only will be because of a better alternative or because of a technological flaw.

[YoYa]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

mid-long term means what it means.

even if we dip sub 200 this would not affect overall trendline. or else bitcoin "fails".

how does bitcoin price have anything to do with bitcoin failure? Failure only will be because of a better alternative or because of a technological flaw.

In a perfect market price is the summation of all variables and fundamentals. Price failure is for the most part a reflection of conditions on the market reflecting either redundancy or technological failure.....and sometimes in bubbles that singular critical moment when the penny drops. But just because a trend line is penetrated does it mean that the future is set in stone either, aberrations in market pricing can and do happen regularly.

[oda.krell]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

He answered that a while ago, iirc: < 50% of the current swing (so, below ~265 USD), or correction extending too long in time ("more than 20 days") ... to that latter condition, we're actually getting pretty close to.

[ssmc2]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

He answered that a while ago, iirc: < 50% of the current swing (so, below ~265 USD), or correction extending too long in time ("more than 20 days") ... to that latter condition, we're actually getting pretty close to.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe those conditions were being applied to the cup and handle scenario. I don't think not meeting those conditions would necessarily effect his mid-long term bullish bias.

[masterluc]

20 days and/or more than 50% of cup only may harm bullish c&h figure.

Long term downtrend has been broken - that is my main point. Even if c&h will fail, I think we may see only prolonged sideways action what I call silence phase.

Only move below 210 may seriously harm bullish outlook. Weekly picture is pretty bullish so far. Or at least it is not bearish.

[Afrikoin]

No changes in my bullish bias. I remind you I analyze in mid-long term (months, years).

luc,what event will change your bias/if happen ? Going back below 200 day Ema,below log downtrend  or something else ?  
Thanks

mid-long term means what it means.

even if we dip sub 200 this would not affect overall trendline. or else bitcoin "fails".

how does bitcoin price have anything to do with bitcoin failure? Failure only will be because of a better alternative or because of a technological flaw.

In a perfect market price is the summation of all variables and fundamentals. Price failure is for the most part a reflection of conditions on the market reflecting either redundancy or technological failure.....and sometimes in bubbles that singular critical moment when the penny drops. But just because a trend line is penetrated does it mean that the future is set in stone either, aberrations in market pricing can and do happen regularly.

I like this.

i disagree with people who say the price of bitcoin is irrelevant. Or as a separate from 'Bitcoin development' We who trade bitcoin markets are a crucial piece of Bitcoin. At times they call us 'speculators'

[oda.krell]

20 days and/or more than 50% of cup only may harm bullish c&h figure.

Long term downtrend has been broken - that is my main point. Even if c&h will fail, I think we may see only prolonged sideways action what I call silence phase.

Only move below 210 may seriously harm bullish outlook. Weekly picture is pretty bullish so far. Or at least it is not bearish.

Thanks for the clarification.

What should be noted as well: closing above dsma200+50, for a month by now, first time in a long while. Let's see if we stay there.

[StarenseN]

Dsma 200 is now pointing upward,  been a while though

[Morecoin Freeman]

Dsma 200 is now pointing upward,  been a while though

Really nice observation.

Since this is my 1000th post I have to do a price prediction;
I'll just put we'll comfortably break $290 again this week. And we'll see $400 within 2015.

[Meuh6879]

...buy

always.


sell when halving append. 

[Han]

20 days and/or more than 50% of cup only may harm bullish c&h figure.

Long term downtrend has been broken - that is my main point. Even if c&h will fail, I think we may see only prolonged sideways action what I call silence phase.

Only move below 210 may seriously harm bullish outlook. Weekly picture is pretty bullish so far. Or at least it is not bearish.

How did you arrive at the 210 figure Luc? I thought closing and staying below the weekly 20sma (around 250 now) would start the long term bear, at least from what I remember of waveaddict's analysis