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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916604 times)
Fatman3001
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August 26, 2015, 11:41:11 PM
 #3581



Ok, i fully agree with you RyinDiclem and madjules007. I fully agree with this in theory.

Trouble is, i have trouble reconciling this in reality. I find it hard to picture a complete turnaround in sentiment on  forums. Say price dips to unprecedented levels, the reality should be 75% switch to full on Bitcoin is dead. I find this hard to reconcile since, I find bitcoiner's to be extremely resilient in their hopes for BTC.In my mind (long term bull btw), i imagine everyone will see these ridiculous levels as the perfect buying opportunity.

I never experienced this before. Perhaps some of you did, since the early days of Bitcoin. I hope i live to see that state of sentiment and forums and reddit bitcoin markets comments to really believe that its possible for most of the people i see on discussions on bitcointalk turn around and doubt bitcoin can even head back to  measly $500.

Like Fakhoury, i missed the first wave of prices, and i'm all for fresh lows. I'm even pulling together a group of my friends to buy in as a fund once we hit bottom. For them, $100 is a reasonable risk.

I too have been thinking about this. Quite a few will bail if we go and stay below $150. Like we saw when we crept below $340. But most will buy more, and if we go below $80... people will go mental(which is why we won't get there).

I've kept an eye on Bitcoins 'Bier und Blasen' Tavern, the WO thread, for almost a year now, and everytime we go below $230 people start sending money to exchanges.

The fact that Bitcoin itself can't go bust is comforting. Whenever people fear exchanges will go belly up, they withdraw in Bitcoin. Clearly, people trust Bitcoin in a way they might not trust other investments. So unless devs break Bitcoin I don't really believe we will reach the point where sentiment is where rynindaclem says it needs to be.

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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Fakhoury
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August 26, 2015, 11:47:44 PM
 #3582

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
thefiniteidea
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August 27, 2015, 03:14:16 AM
 #3583

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

No, Bitcoin is backed by a belief that alternative currencies are healthy.

Greed came in later.

The important thing is stating Bitcoin is not about making money, it's about having a choice. That comes first.  Making money off that fact is secondary.

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August 27, 2015, 05:04:51 AM
 #3584

What he's trying to tell you Fakhoury is that if you see double digits, consider it the buy of a lifetime. I know I will.

Are you sure you would buy at $99?

This forum would be filled with excited bears talking about single digits and they might even be right. Loads of coins from capitulating long-time hodlers might flood the markets. It wouldn't be a pretty sight and http://bitcoinobituaries.com/ would get some more entries for sure.

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August 27, 2015, 05:06:44 AM
 #3585

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.

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Chef Ramsay
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August 27, 2015, 05:29:15 AM
 #3586

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.
But w/o greed or speculation, the usury dries up imo quite a bit which can lead to folks going awol around here. I hope we can at least agree on that to some extent. I think that the greed factor is healthy and keeps newcomers interested for using it more, in many of its uses. W/o discounts for regulars to use bitcoin at their shopping destination, spec and the like is what drives the demand and the like at this point.
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August 27, 2015, 07:03:18 AM
 #3587

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.
But w/o greed or speculation, the usury dries up imo quite a bit which can lead to folks going awol around here. I hope we can at least agree on that to some extent. I think that the greed factor is healthy and keeps newcomers interested for using it more, in many of its uses. W/o discounts for regulars to use bitcoin at their shopping destination, spec and the like is what drives the demand and the like at this point.

Greed has been the only thing that brought most people around here.
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August 27, 2015, 08:31:39 AM
 #3588

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.
But w/o greed or speculation, the usury dries up imo quite a bit which can lead to folks going awol around here. I hope we can at least agree on that to some extent. I think that the greed factor is healthy and keeps newcomers interested for using it more, in many of its uses. W/o discounts for regulars to use bitcoin at their shopping destination, spec and the like is what drives the demand and the like at this point.

Greed has been the only thing that brought most people around here.

Greed will make some participants buy and hold. This removes coins from circulation. This increases the purchasing power of the coins in circulation and acts as a no-interest / negative interest loan to the people actually using bitcoin as currency. This zero interest loan will increase actual use. The more people that use bitcoin as currency drives the price upwards which will again increase the number of buy and hold speculators.

This positive feedback loop functioned nicely for some time, to some extend it still does but the speculative part of the bitcoin economy grew even faster than the actual. The speculation has completely overtaken the underlying usage economy, at least this is my sentiment. In one way or another it seems like this needs some kind of rebalancing so there is some kind of reasonable ratio between pure speculation and actual use. If bitcoins price and volume is 99% derived from speculation the price can, and will, fluctuate infinitely. Add 0% interest in the national currencies to the mix and speculative bitcoin positions can be leveraged greatly creating even more violent fluctuations in the price. Some fluctuations are OK, we live with these fluctuations in the national currencies too. But when you see double digit percentage movements up and down on a regular bases its bound to throw people off. The very people bitcoin should tender to, the unbanked and underbanked can't live with such fluctuations for their savings and they are consequently not going to use bitcoin. If this is not sorted colored coins and sidechains can take over. They can provide the stability that normal users desire. The price of bitcoin can reduce to the cost+profit miners want to provide the security for the colored coins and side chains. This can be substantially lower than today.

Something needs to give so that actual use increases greatly, its the only way the price will increase.

The situation today is that most of bitcoins price is derived from a bet on a future where actual use is sky high and general adoption is high. The very fluctuations and valuations this bet creates is preventing that future from manifesting itself. I think the price will continue to fall until a point where future bitcoin plays on the same ballpark as the present bitcoin so that present usage can explode. Either that or actual use catches up to speculation.
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August 27, 2015, 08:44:24 AM
Last edit: August 27, 2015, 08:55:36 AM by hdbuck
 #3589

Either bitcoin is an Investment commodity (the ultimate one!) that you hold and speculate on
Or internet *stable* cash money that you you keep on spending

But the latter is not synonym with moonlanding.

And thinking you can have both is ATH delusions.
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August 27, 2015, 08:54:11 AM
 #3590

And thinking you can have both is ATH delusions.
Do you have any argument?
hdbuck
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August 27, 2015, 08:59:20 AM
 #3591

And thinking you can have both is ATH delusions.
Do you have you any argument?

Yea the very friggin definition of an investment vs money.
The idea that something that people keep on spending, hence "selling", will rise in value is utterly retarded.

Why do you think all the minions around keeps on saying hold?!
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August 27, 2015, 09:02:52 AM
 #3592

And thinking you can have both is ATH delusions.
Do you have you any argument?

Yea the very friggin definition of an investment vs money.
The idea that something that people keep on spending, hence "selling", will rise in value is utterly retarded.

Why do you think all the minions around keeps on saying hold?!
I use euro as reserve of value and to do my every day spending, it works well.
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August 27, 2015, 09:07:22 AM
Last edit: August 27, 2015, 09:59:34 AM by hdbuck
 #3593

And thinking you can have both is ATH delusions.
Do you have you any argument?

Yea the very friggin definition of an investment vs money.
The idea that something that people keep on spending, hence "selling", will rise in value is utterly retarded.

Why do you think all the minions around keeps on saying hold?!
I use euro as reserve of value and to do my every day spending, it works well.

Lol i bet you do..

Euro to the moon! 1250$ Per euro!! Here we go! xD

Edit: and people wonder Why bitcoin is loosing value... Roll Eyes
Friggin noobish retard socalist micro tipping curency bs attacking It, wanting to fork It! Thats why.
Admiral_Bit
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August 27, 2015, 09:12:42 AM
 #3594

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

No, Bitcoin is backed by a belief that alternative currencies are healthy.

Greed came in later.

The important thing is stating Bitcoin is not about making money, it's about having a choice. That comes first.  Making money off that fact is secondary.

No normal person cares about that choice mambo jambo. It just doesnt matter at all, we want to make big $. Fuck Bitcoin, just make us rich already!!!
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August 27, 2015, 09:49:42 AM
 #3595

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.

Who people ? there is no one left
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August 27, 2015, 10:40:30 AM
 #3596

A quick remark on the discussion above:

I'd like to point out that, other than the (extremely important, of course) "market mood" we tend to talk about in here, which can be seen as an extremely elastic, "fickle" supply/demand variable, there's also a supply/demand variable which is a lot less elastic, a type of nearly "guaranteed" supply/demand.

Simplifying somewhat, I'd describe it as: (a) coins mined per day, (b) price per coin vs. (c) number of "hardcore Bitcoiners", (d) monthly income of the group in (c), (e) determination of group (c) to spend (a portion of) their income to buy more bitcoins.

To be clear, I'm not saying that 1xx or double digits are impossible. But I'm going in a similar direction as fatman above, "[when price goes] below $230 people start sending money to exchanges":

At 9xx, 6xx, even 3xx prices, the "guaranteed demand" of (c)*(d) didn't seem to be enough to hold the dam against the "guaranteed supply" of (a)*(b) added to the supply/demand outcome of the market mood. Hence, price declined. At 1xx, that appears to be different (so far).

Of course, eventually the mood of the market will probably influence (e) as well, i.e. the willingness of the hardcore Bitcoin supporters to spend their income on coins might diminish. But I'm not completely sure that's going to happen before the market mood changes again to bullish, so that effect might not take place soon enough to drive us into the doubles.

Summarizing, I agree with the discussion above that we will enter No Man's Land should we go below $200 and stay there, but I  also add that so far, any supply below $200 seems to be soaked up quickly and effectively.

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August 27, 2015, 10:50:33 AM
 #3597

A quick remark on the discussion above:

I'd like to point out that, other than the (extremely important, of course) "market mood" we tend to talk about in here, which can be seen as an extremely elastic, "fickle" supply/demand variable, there's also a supply/demand variable which is a lot less elastic, a type of nearly "guaranteed" supply/demand.

Simplifying somewhat, I'd describe it as: (a) coins mined per day, (b) price per coin vs. (c) number of "hardcore Bitcoiners", (d) monthly income of the group in (c), (e) determination of group (c) to spend (a portion of) their income to buy more bitcoins.

To be clear, I'm not saying that 1xx or double digits are impossible. But I'm going in a similar direction as fatman above, "[when price goes] below $230 people start sending money to exchanges":

At 9xx, 6xx, even 3xx prices, the "guaranteed demand" of (c)*(d) didn't seem to be enough to hold the dam against the "guaranteed supply" of (a)*(b) added to the supply/demand outcome of the market mood. Hence, price declined. At 1xx, that appears to be different (so far).

Of course, eventually the mood of the market will probably influence (e) as well, i.e. the willingness of the hardcore Bitcoin supporters to spend their income on coins might diminish. But I'm not completely sure that's going to happen before the market mood changes again to bullish, so that effect might not take place soon enough to drive us into the doubles.

Summarizing, I agree with the discussion above that we will enter No Man's Land should we go below $200 and stay there, but I  also add that so far, any supply below $200 seems to be soaked up quickly and effectively.

True but it is pretty much always true that people are sending money to exchanges.

The question is, is it more money than usual?

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August 27, 2015, 10:53:00 AM
 #3598

Don't forget people that Bitcoin is backed by Greed

I disagree. Bitcoin is backed by the people using it.
But w/o greed or speculation, the usury dries up imo quite a bit which can lead to folks going awol around here. I hope we can at least agree on that to some extent. I think that the greed factor is healthy and keeps newcomers interested for using it more, in many of its uses. W/o discounts for regulars to use bitcoin at their shopping destination, spec and the like is what drives the demand and the like at this point.
...

Something needs to give so that actual use increases greatly, its the only way the price will increase.

I disagree, just look at gold.
Usage became lower and lower each year last few hundred years.
Price on the other hand...

It's nice to have a more superior form of gold which is actually much easier to spend than physical gold.
Gold became useless as a currency because it had to be broken down into dust to buy a bread.
Bitcoin solves this problem.
Spending 1 bitcoin is as easy as spending 0.00001

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oda.krell
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August 27, 2015, 10:55:53 AM
 #3599

[...]

True but it is pretty much always true that people are sending money to exchanges.

The question is, is it more money than usual?

I probably didn't make my point clear (or concise Cheesy) enough:

No, I don't think it's more than usual in absolute terms. But as price declines and emission stays constant, if I'm right about the "money sent to buy more" being roughly constant, its effect on price increases, i.e. it might be enough to "hold" 1xx even though it wasn't enough to "hold" 3xx.

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August 27, 2015, 11:00:29 AM
 #3600

I disagree, just look at gold.
Usage became lower and lower each year last few hundred years.
Price on the other hand...

It's nice to have a more superior form of gold which is actually much easier to spend than physical gold.
Gold became useless as a currency because it had to be broken down into dust to buy a bread.
Bitcoin solves this problem.
Spending 1 bitcoin is as easy as spending 0.00001

You somehow assume that you can compare gold and bitcoins. This is a big logical fallacy.



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