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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 917297 times)
masterluc
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August 24, 2015, 05:39:27 PM
 #3521

Probably goes to 170.



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August 24, 2015, 06:09:52 PM
 #3522

LOL, I sell and the we go up again =)
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August 24, 2015, 06:25:03 PM
 #3523

The log trend channel got updated ;-)

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August 24, 2015, 06:26:24 PM
 #3524

Probably goes to 170.
Thanks for sharing.

Since "iron indicator" 200 weekly SMA is broken now, do you see a possibility for a mid-term uptrend at all?

masterluc
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August 24, 2015, 08:01:32 PM
 #3525

Probably goes to 170.
Thanks for sharing.

Since "iron indicator" 200 weekly SMA is broken now, do you see a possibility for a mid-term uptrend at all?

It is not broken yet. I repeat, beware bear trap, daily adx at 65! Gold and euro rally! It may go down further and/or reverse sharply.

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August 24, 2015, 08:04:49 PM
 #3526

Probably goes to 170.
Thanks for sharing.

Since "iron indicator" 200 weekly SMA is broken now, do you see a possibility for a mid-term uptrend at all?

It is not broken yet. I repeat, beware bear trap, daily adx at 65! Gold and euro rally! It may go down further and/or reverse sharply.

I presume you would consider it "broken" if the weekly candle closed below 200 weekly SMA?

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masterluc
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August 24, 2015, 08:07:39 PM
 #3527

Yes. Here is 9 moves from top. It is completed 3-extended impulse. Bottom is somewhere here by time.


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August 24, 2015, 10:26:13 PM
 #3528


i guess 207 means resistance...

masterluc
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August 25, 2015, 01:02:03 PM
 #3529

Need a time for this move to complete and see market reaction. I still stand on sideways 200-300 (weekly bb borders) range trading for a long time.

However this channel hint from bitfinex is not far exception


masterluc
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August 25, 2015, 01:12:31 PM
 #3530

The current picture reminds me beginning of 2012

Current


The 2012 similar situation, first 1/3 of chart


If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

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August 25, 2015, 03:47:20 PM
 #3531

The current picture reminds me beginning of 2012

Current


The 2012 similar situation, first 1/3 of chart


If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The bitcoin hype is over. This seems very reasonable and gives the crypto space the much needed time time to get its shit together. A stable market for the next 1.5 years could be very well the blind spot of most market participants.

Always wrong until not.
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August 25, 2015, 05:10:11 PM
 #3532

The current picture reminds me beginning of 2012

Current


The 2012 similar situation, first 1/3 of chart


If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The bitcoin hype is over. This seems very reasonable and gives the crypto space the much needed time time to get its shit together. A stable market for the next 1.5 years could be very well the blind spot of most market participants.

1.5 years is enough to shake out just about all weak hands. Then what? A rally to 21k?
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August 25, 2015, 06:55:12 PM
 #3533

masterluc:

Do you assume the 152 bottom was C?

From 0 to 1150 bitcoin was an endless source of impulse waves and pretty nice ABC / wedge corrections. Sure, it wasn't easy to get the wave count correct but you could clearly recognize impulse waves everywhere at all scales. There was a reason you could call the top with some confidence.

After 1150 its just an ocean of corrective waves as far as i can see. If 152 was C it would be reasonable to expect that the corrective waves would be replaced by impulse waves. Look at the run up to 317, that is not a pretty sight.

And look at the recovery from the 198 low now, a rally like that should be a symphony of impulse waves that iterated nicely, but its not, its just corrective waves and zigzags.

What is your take on this?



 
masterluc
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August 25, 2015, 07:52:30 PM
 #3534

masterluc:

Do you assume the 152 bottom was C?

From 0 to 1150 bitcoin was an endless source of impulse waves and pretty nice ABC / wedge corrections. Sure, it wasn't easy to get the wave count correct but you could clearly recognize impulse waves everywhere at all scales. There was a reason you could call the top with some confidence.

After 1150 its just an ocean of corrective waves as far as i can see. If 152 was C it would be reasonable to expect that the corrective waves would be replaced by impulse waves. Look at the run up to 317, that is not a pretty sight.

And look at the recovery from the 198 low now, a rally like that should be a symphony of impulse waves that iterated nicely, but its not, its just corrective waves and zigzags.

What is your take on this?

5-3-5 flat correction since ATH looks good however. Since my suppositional C @152 there were strong impulses with rising volume. I recognize this as bulls awakening. But they are only woken up and started some bullish development. Bulls don't have enough power so far to quickly deal with post-bearish market shock.

So here is a battle now, a lot of bull and bear traps for thrend changing. I don't count it as it is too early to do this. I only see bullish awakening in its early stage.

Furthermore, I recognize Bitcoin as living creature, as superposition of all its intelligent participants. And it has a feature - it is a currency. And volatility for currency is bad. So after volatility this creature goes to calm. So after a bullish and bearish storm it tries to calm to allow itself to be a currency. To allow people for some time to buy and sell goods and services without looking back for volatility. Market does range lock - and here it is. $230-$250 for two years. Good? Absolutely.

These calm aspirations of bitcoin will rise with time, as it should be a currency. There will be decades of range lock in future during bitcoin times. Without regulation.


findftp
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August 25, 2015, 09:10:51 PM
 #3535

I recognize Bitcoin as living creature, as superposition of all its intelligent participants.

Nice quote, I fully agree.
Might even put it in my signature.

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August 25, 2015, 09:27:16 PM
 #3536

Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.
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August 25, 2015, 09:38:00 PM
 #3537

Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.

What is the probability that there will be historical III ?

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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August 25, 2015, 09:40:15 PM
 #3538

1.5 years of a silent phase range-bound between 200 - 300? I could live with that. I def do not have anywhere near a respectable number of coin so it would be nice to pick up some more during that time.
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August 25, 2015, 09:41:21 PM
 #3539

Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.

What is the probability that there will be historical III ?

Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW.

Trouble is, figuring out whther we're in II, or IV, or A,B,C correction.



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August 25, 2015, 09:47:28 PM
 #3540

Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.

What is the probability that there will be historical III ?

Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW.

Trouble is, figuring out whther we're in II, or IV, or A,B,C correction.

Not really. An impulse implies that after a II or B wave, that we will see another impulse. It is entirely possible -- assuming that masterluc's count is correct -- that the Historical I was actually an A wave, and that we will not see a Historical III but rather a C wave. It can be 5-3-5-3-5, but it can also be 5-3-5 / correction.

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