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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921547 times)
zby
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October 08, 2016, 06:08:48 AM
 #4641


the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.

limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

It is also possible that some alt will take over. The more privacy oriented coins are just better than BTC - there is no feature that bitcoin has and they cannot, but they are better in privacy.
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harrymmmm
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October 08, 2016, 09:13:08 AM
 #4642


the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

An opinion most people don't share. Got anything a little more compelling?

Quote
the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

Fortunately block size limit seems to be unimportant so far, despite all the doom predicted.
'Resolved' means to your satisfaction, I guess. It seems resolved technically, to my satisfaction - no change for now, followed by a change when we can ALL agree on a hard fork some time in the future.

The lack of political resolution is the worst aspect, leading to some loss of confidence. Confidence will likely return when the fud stops. You can help there Smiley
Quote

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.


C'mon. It does that all day every day. Look at the charts.

Quote
limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

If you mean 'limit the onchain transaction volume', you might be right. Otherwise not.
Limit the price? Have you been looking at the charts???
'limit the amount of users'? I see only evidence that the number of users is increasing. It's anecdotal since there seems to be no better way. Do you have anything compelling to offer in support of your premise?

Morbid
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October 09, 2016, 08:25:57 AM
 #4643

imho we'd be lucky to reach 2-3k at the next bubble. after that we might drop less in % but be more stable for longer after. as price grows fluctuations become lower and cycles longer. though if the fiat run on banks begin anytime soon then we should expect huge crypto influx right after pm futures spike & reach physical capacity limit. tbh i believe that while being aware of the global situation the whales are waiting for exactly that moment as that way the pump wouldnt be sponsored by their own cash, therefore those that got burned at last pump wouldnt dump on their investment..
.. anyways - just a thought.

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hdbuck
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October 10, 2016, 08:42:02 PM
 #4644


the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.

limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

It is also possible that some alt will take over. The more privacy oriented coins are just better than BTC - there is no feature that bitcoin has and they cannot, but they are better in privacy.

lel shitfork and pitchcoin drama.

either bitcoins goes off the roof, or nothing.

patience is key.
talks_cheep
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October 11, 2016, 02:26:30 AM
 #4645


the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

An opinion most people don't share. Got anything a little more compelling?

Quote
the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

Fortunately block size limit seems to be unimportant so far, despite all the doom predicted.
'Resolved' means to your satisfaction, I guess. It seems resolved technically, to my satisfaction - no change for now, followed by a change when we can ALL agree on a hard fork some time in the future.

The lack of political resolution is the worst aspect, leading to some loss of confidence. Confidence will likely return when the fud stops. You can help there Smiley
Quote

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.


C'mon. It does that all day every day. Look at the charts.

Quote
limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

If you mean 'limit the onchain transaction volume', you might be right. Otherwise not.
Limit the price? Have you been looking at the charts???
'limit the amount of users'? I see only evidence that the number of users is increasing. It's anecdotal since there seems to be no better way. Do you have anything compelling to offer in support of your premise?



harrymmmm, you're an ignorant fool. zimmah's absolutely right. You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted. Once it's increased to 2/4/8+ mb, you will see a huge boost in price. The tps limit causes low transaction volume, low adoption rate, thusly low price. Maybe you can't understand this due to your limited intellect, but to the smarter ones, this is so obvious.

molecular
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October 11, 2016, 06:07:46 AM
 #4646

Fortunately block size limit seems to be unimportant so far, despite all the doom predicted.

Just because you don't want to see it, doesn't mean there's no effect.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
oda.krell
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October 11, 2016, 09:59:14 AM
 #4647

^*

I admit, I've been guilty of off-topic posting in luc's thread(s) myself, but you guys are off-topicking in the worst way possible:

You're discussing fundamentals, shmundamentals in one of the best technical threads there is in here :D

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RoadTrain
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October 11, 2016, 10:38:01 AM
 #4648

You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted.

That is a bold statement. Quoted for posterity. Wink
Jumanji7
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October 11, 2016, 11:10:32 AM
 #4649

It would be nice if masterluc updates his prediction  Wink
jehst
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October 11, 2016, 10:56:13 PM
 #4650

It would be nice if masterluc updates his prediction  Wink

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg16137546#msg16137546

Looks like we're ready for B.

up to 700 we go

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
Snorek
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October 12, 2016, 01:07:06 AM
 #4651

I read some technical price analysis and apparently experts predict that we will hit $1000 in January.

It seems that current market charts looks a lot like these from the Nov 2013 high.

We now see indications that the market is likely to continue to go higher and higher.

Is it truly the last stop before you can buy 'cheaper' bitcoin?


humble_tryer
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October 12, 2016, 08:02:50 AM
 #4652

 what's more interesting to me is who will pay that price upto $10,000?  regular people? But what if they won't join/feed that steep uptrend?
molecular
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October 12, 2016, 08:19:28 AM
 #4653

You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted.

That is a bold statement. Quoted for posterity. Wink

Let me add another statement:

We'll see 1000+ almost instantly (let's say 3 weeks) once the tps limit is lifted substantially.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
RoadTrain
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October 12, 2016, 04:33:18 PM
 #4654

You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted.

That is a bold statement. Quoted for posterity. Wink

Let me add another statement:

We'll see 1000+ almost instantly (let's say 3 weeks) once the tps limit is lifted substantially.
Fine, though yours is harder to verify. What if the price is already over 1000 when the limit is lifted? What does 'substantially' mean? Et cetera...

I always thought (and still do) that things like price, adoption and tps rate are only loosely (and sometimes even counter-intuitively) correlated, that is why I call these statements bold. Overly simplistic view.
sandiman
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October 12, 2016, 05:43:24 PM
 #4655

You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted.

That is a bold statement. Quoted for posterity. Wink

Let me add another statement:

We'll see 1000+ almost instantly (let's say 3 weeks) once the tps limit is lifted substantially.
Fine, though yours is harder to verify. What if the price is already over 1000 when the limit is lifted? What does 'substantially' mean? Et cetera...

I always thought (and still do) that things like price, adoption and tps rate are only loosely (and sometimes even counter-intuitively) correlated, that is why I call these statements bold. Overly simplistic view.

who cares about your though on correlation ? give us the number, their not that hard to do (and probably already on internet, don't be that lazy when it's about money  Wink)
harrymmmm
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October 12, 2016, 09:02:53 PM
 #4656


the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

An opinion most people don't share. Got anything a little more compelling?

Quote
the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

Fortunately block size limit seems to be unimportant so far, despite all the doom predicted.
'Resolved' means to your satisfaction, I guess. It seems resolved technically, to my satisfaction - no change for now, followed by a change when we can ALL agree on a hard fork some time in the future.

The lack of political resolution is the worst aspect, leading to some loss of confidence. Confidence will likely return when the fud stops. You can help there Smiley
Quote

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.


C'mon. It does that all day every day. Look at the charts.

Quote
limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

If you mean 'limit the onchain transaction volume', you might be right. Otherwise not.
Limit the price? Have you been looking at the charts???
'limit the amount of users'? I see only evidence that the number of users is increasing. It's anecdotal since there seems to be no better way. Do you have anything compelling to offer in support of your premise?



harrymmmm, you're an ignorant fool. zimmah's absolutely right. You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted. Once it's increased to 2/4/8+ mb, you will see a huge boost in price. The tps limit causes low transaction volume, low adoption rate, thusly low price. Maybe you can't understand this due to your limited intellect, but to the smarter ones, this is so obvious.

I won't bother replying again to this moronic ad hominem., but you should realize that you've supplied nothing but your own opinions. No facts; not even a reasoned argument.
Your talk is really 'cheep'! Smiley
harrymmmm
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October 12, 2016, 09:07:45 PM
 #4657

^*

I admit, I've been guilty of off-topic posting in luc's thread(s) myself, but you guys are off-topicking in the worst way possible:

You're discussing fundamentals, shmundamentals in one of the best technical threads there is in here Cheesy

Ahh, sorry. I just popped in and saw something worth debunking.
Unaware of the history etc.
Will make every effort to remember to remain traderlike Smiley
RoadTrain
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October 12, 2016, 11:49:59 PM
Last edit: October 13, 2016, 12:03:43 AM by RoadTrain
 #4658

You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted.

That is a bold statement. Quoted for posterity. Wink

Let me add another statement:

We'll see 1000+ almost instantly (let's say 3 weeks) once the tps limit is lifted substantially.
Fine, though yours is harder to verify. What if the price is already over 1000 when the limit is lifted? What does 'substantially' mean? Et cetera...

I always thought (and still do) that things like price, adoption and tps rate are only loosely (and sometimes even counter-intuitively) correlated, that is why I call these statements bold. Overly simplistic view.

who cares about your though on correlation ? give us the number, their not that hard to do (and probably already on internet, don't be that lazy when it's about money  Wink)
"Thought" in this context actually means I had argued about it (likely even here on this forum). I'm out of this blocksize/tps debate for a long time now, and I'd rather leave it that way.

After all, you requesting the number is the one lazy here Cheesy

There's a funny chart I once posted when Peter tRoll (or someone else) claimed 92% correlation between Bitcoin price and tx rate.


I wonder how Bitcoin even managed to break 1000 with 200Kb average blocksize! Must've been Willybot Sad

Jokes aside, the long-term correlation is now higher, which can be seen clearly.
https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/historical/1w-p-blksize_per_tot-01071-tps-01071

But you can notice that Bitcoin has approached its practical tps limit in March 2016, and has been staying at it ever since, managing to process some 15% more tps, yet the price has risen from 400+ to 600+ which is a 50% increase.
sandiman
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October 13, 2016, 09:15:53 AM
 #4659

You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted.

That is a bold statement. Quoted for posterity. Wink

Let me add another statement:

We'll see 1000+ almost instantly (let's say 3 weeks) once the tps limit is lifted substantially.
Fine, though yours is harder to verify. What if the price is already over 1000 when the limit is lifted? What does 'substantially' mean? Et cetera...

I always thought (and still do) that things like price, adoption and tps rate are only loosely (and sometimes even counter-intuitively) correlated, that is why I call these statements bold. Overly simplistic view.

who cares about your though on correlation ? give us the number, their not that hard to do (and probably already on internet, don't be that lazy when it's about money  Wink)
"Thought" in this context actually means I had argued about it (likely even here on this forum). I'm out of this blocksize/tps debate for a long time now, and I'd rather leave it that way.

After all, you requesting the number is the one lazy here Cheesy

There's a funny chart I once posted when Peter tRoll (or someone else) claimed 92% correlation between Bitcoin price and tx rate.


I wonder how Bitcoin even managed to break 1000 with 200Kb average blocksize! Must've been Willybot Sad

Jokes aside, the long-term correlation is now higher, which can be seen clearly.
https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/historical/1w-p-blksize_per_tot-01071-tps-01071

But you can notice that Bitcoin has approached its practical tps limit in March 2016, and has been staying at it ever since, managing to process some 15% more tps, yet the price has risen from 400+ to 600+ which is a 50% increase.

Cheers for the graph, i'll try to get regression figures from that same data soon.

here is the most interesting correlation :
Denker
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October 13, 2016, 09:34:31 AM
 #4660

Yes Bitcoin and Metcalfe's value is one of the most interesting charts for me.
There had been a strong a correlation in the past between these two.
Right now Bitcoin's price would be highly undervalued!Let's hope for an upwards correction! Smiley
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