Analysis

[Globb0]

It is a discussion thread. Luke had enough of it ages ago. Why you guys want to drive away active posters who bring something to the discussion is beyond me.

[1714119808]

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[1714119808]

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[Pruden]

Bringing an inventive system requiring several paragraphs of explanation is beyond the scope of this thread.

dmwardjr, please do open a thread for your analysis.

While this thread has a very general name, it has a very specific purpose that might be lost to newbies.

[Globb0]

Bringing an inventive system requiring several paragraphs of explanation is beyond the scope of this thread.

dmwardjr, please do open a thread for your analysis.

While this thread has a very general name, it has a very specific purpose that might be lost to newbies.

has = had

[Okurkabinladin]

Any new updates on Masterluc position in all of this? Can some good soul translate from russian?

Many thanks in advance. This has been quite educational.

EDIT: Dmwardjr, some of those stats you posted look like schematics of Death Star.

[Afrikoin]

i will watch that thread closely.please get your own thread.

Don't you think it would be simply better if you had your own thread?

This way you're just congesting masterluc's thread with stuff that some people don't expect to see when checking it.

Cheers.

I second this. I am not trying to discourage you from posting, dmwardjr - quite the contrary. I find your analysis to be interesting enough to deserve its own thread.

I'll stop posting so much in here and start my own Thread.  Too sleepy to start with a proper cover page.  Will work on it some time soon.  I'll still drop in from time to time... But only links...

EDIT:  Rather NOT create a thread here on BT, I'll just keep publishings going on TV for a while.  I just don't have the time to keep up multiple threads on multiple sites and do all the other things I need to do daily.

By the way, I noticed a pattern thats worked 3 out of 3 times; in terms of where proper placement should be of 100% FIB re-tracement on the way back down from Consolidation/Dumps to the 0.618% Throwbacks we normally have after a BIG breakout from a gun firing.  It's worked 3 out of 3 times now and leaves the 0.382, 0.236 running pretty well as well.  I wrote the rules regarding the pattern I noticed that could be followed on the next Consolidation move.  We'll see in May or June if it works 4 out of 4...

Link to Screenshot of the rules written within the text bubbles repeatedly for the 3 out of 3 times it's occurred in this bull run up since 2015.  https://www.tradingview.com/x/fPfJiwiT/

Closeups of each of those 3 FIB results for each of those Consolidation moves (Dumps) are included in comments underneath the cover shot in this publication:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zoCDkQFg-NOTICED-A-PATTERN-WITH-FIB-RETRACEMENT-Copy-in-Comments/

hey

you can post on my thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new

We encourage other people's opinion on my thread

BUT

one condition, you have to post CHARTS!

NOT link to charts

or post both a chart and a link to a chart

I use imugr

It helps in dicussion

[Afrikoin]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

i too think it would not hold on a second attack.

If we go down to retest it at some point in the near future, it will break and next stop will be $540

than $465

[Denker]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

i too think it would not hold on a second attack.

If we go down to retest it at some point in the near future, it will break and next stop will be $540

than $465

Oh man that would be a massive drop, probably followed by a lot of FUD with the intention to push the price down even more.
I'm not sure if that would be goodfor BTC in the long run.Mmayne people would compare it with 2014 and first half 2015.
However I think I would try to buy as much BTC as possible if it should really happen.

[molecular]

If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.

$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.

There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.

i too think it would not hold on a second attack.

If we go down to retest it at some point in the near future, it will break and next stop will be $540

than $465

Oh man that would be a massive drop, probably followed by a lot of FUD with the intention to push the price down even more.
I'm not sure if that would be goodfor BTC in the long run.Mmayne people would compare it with 2014 and first half 2015.
However I think I would try to buy as much BTC as possible if it should really happen.

In short: it would suck donkey balls bigtime.

$550ish is the lowest point we should go if we want to keep the cup & handle instact. So if we indeed go below $780, the bulls should probably try to defend $550 to the death ;-| or otherwise look at a wound to the bull market that would  take a year or more to heal.

[600watt]

what happened to the sentiment in this thread? 

[RAJSALLIN]

what happened to the sentiment in this thread? 

From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct

[Bimmerhead]

what happened to the sentiment in this thread? 

From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct

Thanks for the translation. When did he make this statement?

[notme]

In short: it would suck donkey balls bigtime.

$550ish is the lowest point we should go if we want to keep the cup & handle instact. So if we indeed go below $780, the bulls should probably try to defend $550 to the death ;-| or otherwise look at a wound to the bull market that would  take a year or more to heal.

As long as I continue to have a well paying job and no need to cash out I can't help but get excited about having longer to accumulate.

[RoadTrain]

From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct

Thanks for the translation. When did he make this statement?

January 22, 2017.

[hdbuck]

From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct

Thanks for the translation. When did he make this statement?

January 22, 2017.

"blue no longer an option"



i'd say drop depending on the panic between $650 and 550

PS: luc come back!

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.

[molecular]

If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.

Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.

[zby]

If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.

Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.

If miners stop mining the whole system stops processing transactions.

[RAJSALLIN]

If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.

Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.

If miners stop mining the whole system stops processing transactions.

Of course all miners don't stop. It's an equilibrium.

[molecular]

If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.

Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.

If miners stop mining the whole system stops processing transactions.

Not all miners have the same "cost per coin". Hence they don't all stop at the same price, as RAJSALLIN correclty pointed out.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Industrial miners have invested enormous capital in order to generate coins. If they can temporarily buy coins for less than it costs to produce them, they rationally will.

Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).

Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.

Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.