rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[neilol]

Post so I can lurk - looking forward to the rest of the thread. The super-exponential trend-line posted not long ago in your other thread will be interesting to watch unfold over the next year.

[wachtwoord]

Post so I can lurk - looking forward to the rest of the thread. The super-exponential trend-line posted not long ago in your other thread will be interesting to watch unfold over the next year.

My intention as well.

[favelle75]

But is the bitcoin price not news driven? Good news -> price goes up. Bad news -> price goes down. Maybe some technical analysis might be helpful for day trading, but in the long run? I don't know. On the other hand many people believe in this technical analysis. Therefore many trades act like this and therefore the price.

So my question is:
How helpful is a exploration only based on a chart line? I saw here many, many lines in charts which seemed to look good but most of them where wrong and of course some where right (if 100 people bet on a single number in roulette, some will hit the right number. But that does not make them to prophets).

I am not sure if this is trolling. Once I made a critical post in rpietila's thread and was deleted instantly.

Exactly.  That`s why I never understood the dumbells trying to predict the price and ``trendlines`` and all that garbage.  One piece of news either way and BTC price rockets or plummets, regardless of what the graph is supposedly going to tell you.

[favelle75]

Hi. I want a glass of red wine.

Well, it's 2pm on the last Sunday before I start the final semester of my masters degree.  I've just moved into a new apartment and bought myself a corkscrew for this wine I've had for months.  It seems like a good time to open a bottle and sort through all these boxes.

In the mean time, I've got a small long position on bitfinex with a base of $890 just for kicks.  This might well be a bull trap/B wave, but I think I can get at least a few more percent out of this move.  But please don't trade on my speculation, do your own research.


Edit:  well, hot damn... That was a nice jump while I typed this.  I sold out most and claimed the profits in BTC.

Errrmmmm...what exactly is your definition of a ``long`` position?

[notme]

Hi. I want a glass of red wine.

Well, it's 2pm on the last Sunday before I start the final semester of my masters degree.  I've just moved into a new apartment and bought myself a corkscrew for this wine I've had for months.  It seems like a good time to open a bottle and sort through all these boxes.

In the mean time, I've got a small long position on bitfinex with a base of $890 just for kicks.  This might well be a bull trap/B wave, but I think I can get at least a few more percent out of this move.  But please don't trade on my speculation, do your own research.


Edit:  well, hot damn... That was a nice jump while I typed this.  I sold out most and claimed the profits in BTC.

Errrmmmm...what exactly is your definition of a ``long`` position?

A buy with the intention to sell.  The opposite of a short.  I did not mean long term of that's what you are thinking.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp

[YoYa]

In the interests of high standards of this club may I suggest the introduction of a 1BTC minimum priced scotch.

[ErisDiscordia]

Post so I can lurk - looking forward to the rest of the thread. The super-exponential trend-line posted not long ago in your other thread will be interesting to watch unfold over the next year.

My intention as well.

Watching this thread as well, hoping for some fun, enlightening discussions.

[notme]

If we happen to be on wave B 3 outomes are possible:

We remain below ATH (better below 960 stamp price) and then we correct below previous low.

We match ATH then we correct to previous low.

We surpass ATH then we correct to or below previous low.

So if someone believes we are on wave B, cheaper prices will happen. But you have to be sure we are on wave B.

Of course, which is why I never short with leverage and I never sell more than a tiny % of my long term holdings.  If I had no btc, I would be nervous.

[GigaCoin]

Another quality rpietila thread, i look forward to hanging out in the lounge.

[kdrop22]

Here are my points regarding the limitations of the trendline:

a) The inflation rate of Bitcoin
in 2012 -> around 40%
in 2013 -> around 13%
which is partly due to halfing of the block reward and partly due to the increase in the number of Bitcoins (which reduces the precentage)
This is definitely going to have some impact on the price, assuming the same trend for both these years, does not make sense to me.

b) The trend line is based on the least squares method. So, values furthest from the trend will be given the maximum weight. So, we would end up giving more weight to the bubble in 2011 than the recent price data.

[notme]

Here are my points regarding the limitations of the trendline:

a) The inflation rate of Bitcoin
in 2012 -> around 40%
in 2013 -> around 13%
which is partly due to halfing of the block reward and partly due to the increase in the number of Bitcoins (which reduces the precentage)
This is definitely going to have some impact on the price, assuming the same trend for both these years, does not make sense to me.

b) The trend line is based on the least squares method. So, values furthest from the trend will be given the maximum weight. So, we would end up giving more weight to the bubble in 2011 than the recent price data.

I see A as particularly important.  Algorithmically controlled release with declining inflation is a unique feature of bitcoin that hasn't been seen in other markets.

[windjc]

Hey RP I am interested in your opinion about this. I was thinking about the growth curve of Bitcoin and we are at a point in its growth, where its popular, even and especially by proponents, to say "Bitcoin could go to zero." Or its "huge price or zero no in between". Or critics say "Bitcoin will eventually fail" etc etc etc.

At what point does the general concensus become bitcoin will not fail, bitcoin will not go to zero? Of course, anything can end, but I think most people don't think Google is going to fail or Yahoo or Apple - those are extreme examples just to make a point. Another would be "too big to fail" banks.

But if bitcoin continues to grow, at some point people will assume zero is not an option with bitcoin.

Once this happens, I believe we will have a watershed moment with Bitcoin. When the counter party idea of risk is no longer zero, there will be much less of a cap on the upward momentum of bitcoin price.

I have a feeling that there may be a singular event or a series of frequent events that leads to a shift in the general sentiment regarding bitcoin in this way. I do not know if it will be a certain price point (maybe 5 figures) or some level of adoption.

But psychologically I feel like ridding itself of this "could fail" populist idea is the final frontier for bitcoin.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If we happen to be on wave B 3 outomes are possible:

We remain below ATH (better below 960 stamp price) and then we correct below previous low.

We match ATH then we correct to previous low.

We surpass ATH then we correct to or below previous low.

So if someone believes we are on wave B, cheaper prices will happen. But you have to be sure we are on wave B.

Option  D. We make a new ATH and fall back, staying above the $455 (Gox)/ $380 (Stamp) low. This would be a running flat.

Your first would be a Zig-zag. Second would be a standard flat correction and third qualifies as an irregular flat.

[doctor877]

Hey RP I am interested in your opinion about this. I was thinking about the growth curve of Bitcoin and we are at a point in its growth, where its popular, even and especially by proponents, to say "Bitcoin could go to zero." Or its "huge price or zero no in between". Or critics say "Bitcoin will eventually fail" etc etc etc.

At what point does the general concensus become bitcoin will not fail, bitcoin will not go to zero? Of course, anything can end, but I think most people don't think Google is going to fail or Yahoo or Apple - those are extreme examples just to make a point. Another would be "too big to fail" banks.

But if bitcoin continues to grow, at some point people will assume zero is not an option with bitcoin.

Once this happens, I believe we will have a watershed moment with Bitcoin. When the counter party idea of risk is no longer zero, there will be much less of a cap on the upward momentum of bitcoin price.

I have a feeling that there may be a singular event or a series of frequent events that leads to a shift in the general sentiment regarding bitcoin in this way. I do not know if it will be a certain price point (maybe 5 figures) or some level of adoption.

But psychologically I feel like ridding itself of this "could fail" populist idea is the final frontier for bitcoin.

Not rpietilä, but IMO it's the point where governments (USA) gives offical green light.

[User_513]

Thank you for posting this, I always enjoy reading your threads.

[kkaspar]

I bought at 200$, after Chinese national news program actually endorsed bitcoin, and sold at 1020$, at the start of December, when it seemed that the volumes won't be able to support the price. Now I have only bought back maximum 5% of the previous sum invested and have only held for short periods for personal entertainment.
To me, this ongoing uptrend doesn't make any sense and my doubts go to:
a) A typical pump and dump scheme by people with deep pockets
b) Organized market manipulation by presenting false market data

I just can't see anything in the development of bitcoin on what to speculate the supposedly growing demand. New markets haven't been opened in important geographical locations, no new laws have passed to support the integrity of cryptos, no new endorsements have been made by influential channels. Just a pack of hazy rumors about possibilities of new payment options and wall street interest. But on the negative side it is public that China government declared that they don't want to see any legal business activity regarding bitcoin. And the rise of the Chinese market was the thing that actually made the price rise to 1200$ from 100$. So, I'm totally clueless on how could someone see that the actual demand will rise in the near future..

When the bitcoin market is so heavily manipulated, then the price could rise even more. But then it's impossible to speculate how far will it rise and how fast and low will it drop. This is just gambling then, and I never gamble with sums that have any importance.

[bitrider]

Of course, which is why I never short with leverage and I never sell more than a tiny % of my long term holdings.  If I had no btc, I would be nervous.

+1  I'm betting on wave B, not not very much. 

[HeliKopterBen]

If we happen to be on wave B 3 outomes are possible:

We remain below ATH (better below 960 stamp price) and then we correct below previous low.

We match ATH then we correct to previous low.

We surpass ATH then we correct to or below previous low.

So if someone believes we are on wave B, cheaper prices will happen. But you have to be sure we are on wave B.

The problem I see with this being a wave b in a downward correction is that the decline from 1242 to 455 looks like a textbook a-b-c down, indicating a wave 2 in a larger rally leg higher.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If we happen to be on wave B 3 outomes are possible:

We remain below ATH (better below 960 stamp price) and then we correct below previous low.

We match ATH then we correct to previous low.

We surpass ATH then we correct to or below previous low.

So if someone believes we are on wave B, cheaper prices will happen. But you have to be sure we are on wave B.

The problem I see with this being a wave b in a downward correction is that the decline from 1242 to 455 looks like a textbook a-b-c down, indicating a wave 2 in a larger rally leg higher.

That is correct however, that abc can make an A of a larger ABC flat 3-3-5.
Some arguments against the correction ending at $455 is that the time it took was too short for the rally preceding it, there was no divergence in the underlying indicators on larger time frames at the bottom, and this rise since has no impulsive properties (There is too much overlap in the waves so looks to be corrective in itself).

[loopgate88]

I bought at 200$, after Chinese national news program actually endorsed bitcoin, and sold at 1020$, at the start of December, when it seemed that the volumes won't be able to support the price. Now I have only bought back maximum 5% of the previous sum invested and have only held for short periods for personal entertainment.
To me, this ongoing uptrend doesn't make any sense and my doubts go to:
a) A typical pump and dump scheme by people with deep pockets
b) Organized market manipulation by presenting false market data

I just can't see anything in the development of bitcoin on what to speculate the supposedly growing demand. New markets haven't been opened in important geographical locations, no new laws have passed to support the integrity of cryptos, no new endorsements have been made by influential channels. Just a pack of hazy rumors about possibilities of new payment options and wall street interest. But on the negative side it is public that China government declared that they don't want to see any legal business activity regarding bitcoin. And the rise of the Chinese market was the thing that actually made the price rise to 1200$ from 100$. So, I'm totally clueless on how could someone see that the actual demand will rise in the near future..

When the bitcoin market is so heavily manipulated, then the price could rise even more. But then it's impossible to speculate how far will it rise and how fast and low will it drop. This is just gambling then, and I never gamble with sums that have any importance.

Dead on. Hype and manipulation are all that is driving growth now. Also, the Chinese are still out-buying the rest of the world 2:1 while faced with government pressure to stop trading is the other layer of instability underneath the hype and manipulation. These factors would be significantly influential at any point but they are extremely influential in such a small market. This must be kept in our minds for the next several months. We must be sobered by the fact that right now BTC is a <15B market. Total USD in circulation alone near 1T. Common sense is good, sense of proportion is better especially when the proportion is 1/66.