Odalv
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May 01, 2014, 11:18:22 PM |
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I'm very happy for all of you that were able to buy at the $350 range but at same time I must admit I'm a little jealous!  There's a good change we'll hit it again. I'm not sure what Risto's thoughts on that are, but analysis of this giant wedge we're in on the one day charts would indicate we could reach that low in the next few weeks before breaking out. I don't think it will go any lower than that though. Do you think that the April low at $338 was the bottom for this bubble? I am quite confident it will go to 350 again. I am keeping a small amount at that range in case it does. Keep in mind its not based on fancy analysis or charts, but things have usually been working out for me. Sometimes you may end up getting some crazy deal like when it went down to 102 at Btc-e. I'll buy thousands if it goes to single digits. So I am keeping a big amount at that range (unfortunately it will not happens :-( ) |
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BitThink
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May 02, 2014, 04:59:46 AM |
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Does it really matter so much to buy it at $350 or $400 if you believe it will be $10000 someday? It's highly possible you miss the train to gain 25x only because you are waiting for a 15% off sale.
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molecular
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May 02, 2014, 06:07:37 AM |
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I'm very happy for all of you that were able to buy at the $350 range but at same time I must admit I'm a little jealous! I wouldn't rule out a revisit completely. It's possible we'll go there again, maybe even visit $266. I personally think that's unlikely, though. |
PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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pinksheep
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May 02, 2014, 10:31:35 AM |
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[/quote]
I'll buy thousands if it goes to single digits. So I am keeping a big amount at that range (unfortunately it will not happens :-( )
[/quote]
If it goes to single digits, I don't think I'd buy any. Surely it would mean bitcoin is finished.
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Carra23
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May 02, 2014, 11:36:53 AM |
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Does it really matter so much to buy it at $350 or $400 if you believe it will be $10000 someday? It's highly possible you miss the train to gain 25x only because you are waiting for a 15% off sale.
So far it has meant that I have more Bitcoins and so if it goes to 5000 or 10000 I will be much richer. The main issue is that you think it is highly possible to miss, while I think its somewhat possible. If it does show the low price trend is over I will buy in at a small loss. I have already bought in some at 420.
I'll buy thousands if it goes to single digits. So I am keeping a big amount at that range (unfortunately it will not happens :-( )
If it goes to single digits, I don't think I'd buy any. Surely it would mean bitcoin is finished. I also consider a possibility, though one to which I attribute low probability of happening. |
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TERA
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May 03, 2014, 12:48:13 AM |
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Risto's 450 long is being threatened for the final time. No more bounces back to this level if the trend were to continue. Here's a short term chart also.  |
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2017orso
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May 03, 2014, 01:45:47 AM |
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Tera no offence, I respect the voicing of opinion, but what you just said is absurd. It seems like you're smart enough to understand why, not sure why your brain so furiously tunnel-focuses, but it may be time for a week break away from the computer to stare at the sky and horizon-line.
Unrelated - although not quality TA, but still in-line with the feelings that oft get mentioned, figured for fun, would share mine. It feels, like we will never get below $380 again. Also it feels like once $780 is breached in a couple months, we will see $3k not long after.
So much for feelings. It doesn't matter either way. The trend exists bc the past 5 years have provided the reality as such. Perhaps in another 5 years, we will get a true picture of its relevance, past and present.
Until then, feels good to own bitcoins.
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SlipperySlope
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May 03, 2014, 02:39:51 AM
Last edit: May 03, 2014, 01:32:59 PM by SlipperySlope |
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Until then, feels good to own bitcoins.
Right on that!In the great bubble of June 2011 some of us were waiting for the bubble to collapse all the way back to $1. The price had fallen for a while from $32 and stuck at $17 and then $15. When it fell through $10 we thought oh well cheap coins but they may get cheaper. I recovered what ever losses I had in coins by buying back at $6. Then we waited while prices went lower and lower. $2 was the bottom only for a short time. Those waiting for $1 got left behind. Good to be in coins and not get left behind. I made a great mistake in the April 2013 bubble collapse not really paying attention to Risto like I should have. I wanted that bubble to be like the great bubble and for prices to go back down to $40 from the peak at $266. Risto said that demand from his precious metals customers was very strong and was predicting much higher prices by year end 2013. I got left behind on the drop down to $65 when I was in dollars instead of coins. I hated that feeling. Now I stay in coins and buy more at bargain prices. It feels good to buy. I will trade the next peak, but not the collapse. |
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TERA
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May 03, 2014, 03:11:34 AM |
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Tera no offence, I respect the voicing of opinion, but what you just said is absurd. It seems like you're smart enough to understand why, not sure why your brain so furiously tunnel-focuses, but it may be time for a week break away from the computer to stare at the sky and horizon-line.
Unrelated - although not quality TA, but still in-line with the feelings that oft get mentioned, figured for fun, would share mine. It feels, like we will never get below $380 again. Also it feels like once $780 is breached in a couple months, we will see $3k not long after.
So much for feelings. It doesn't matter either way. The trend exists bc the past 5 years have provided the reality as such. Perhaps in another 5 years, we will get a true picture of its relevance, past and present.
Until then, feels good to own bitcoins.
Most of my posts are about short term trading, and take note of the condition I mentioned "if the trend were to continue" - meanwhile I didn't say anything about whether or how long the trend would continue. |
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2017orso
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May 03, 2014, 03:15:43 AM |
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Hmmm, you edited your original post to sound less self-affirming about potential trend-line falsification.
Just as well, short term...flort...ferm...
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TERA
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May 03, 2014, 03:16:56 AM |
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Hmmm, you edited your original post to sound less self-affirming about potential trend-line falsification.
Just as well, short term...flort...ferm...
Most of the time I edit my post about 5 times within 10 minutes of writing it to correct spelling errors or write additional points. I don't edit my posts later in response to a discussion. |
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BTCtrader71
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May 03, 2014, 03:54:16 AM |
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I have not studied TA in any depth so forgive me if this comes across as a naive question. My understanding of technical analysis is that it assumes that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors. If you believe in the concept that Risto put forth a week or two ago in this thread of the profound asymmetry of information between those who know about bitcoin enough to have invested, versus those who still don't know jack shit about bitcoin -- doesn't that imply that prices do not reflect the underlying fundamentals, making TA not so applicable?
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BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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TERA
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May 03, 2014, 04:20:55 AM |
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Ta is good at predicting the way things move under opposing forces and analyzing the raw data of supply and demand. I can sit here and try to predict how a fundamental should affect the price, when a fundamental will affect the price, and how much of the price is due to fundamentals, but I will likely be way off, and trading just the price will be much more effective.
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windjc
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May 03, 2014, 04:24:16 AM |
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Ta is good at predicting the way things move under opposing forces and analyzing the raw data of supply and demand. I can sit here and try to predict how a fundamental should affect the price, when a fundamental will affect the price, and how much of the price is due to fundamentals, but I will likely be way off, and trading just the price will be much more effective.
In addition, probably because it is such a new, small and free market, bitcoin acts very predictably once you recognize the patterns. Unlike the dow, where you are trading against high velocity trading bots, market makers and unseen forces creating supply and demand, with bitcoin, you can actually study it enough to see how it acts. It almost acts often like all the traders are in agreement - that is how predictable it is compared to other markets. |
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frienemy
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I was promised da moon
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May 03, 2014, 11:54:15 AM |
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[quote author=TERA link=topic=400235.msg6517762#msg6517762 Most of my posts are about short term trading, and take note of the condition I mentioned "if the trend were to continue" - meanwhile I didn't say anything about whether or how long the trend would continue. [/quote] You are my favourite bear because you are a short term bear. That's what makes a bear a plushy teddy  |
MCTRL_751 > END OF LINE
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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 03, 2014, 04:06:29 PM |
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Ta is good at predicting the way things move under opposing forces and analyzing the raw data of supply and demand. I can sit here and try to predict how a fundamental should affect the price, when a fundamental will affect the price, and how much of the price is due to fundamentals, but I will likely be way off, and trading just the price will be much more effective.
In addition, probably because it is such a new, small and free market, bitcoin acts very predictably once you recognize the patterns. Unlike the dow, where you are trading against high velocity trading bots, market makers and unseen forces creating supply and demand, with bitcoin, you can actually study it enough to see how it acts. It almost acts often like all the traders are in agreement - that is how predictable it is compared to other markets. I have started to observe it daily only since January this year, but so far I am surprised how repetitive this market seems to be. On the other hand, I am still afraid to trust this pattern completely, it can lull us into a false security, and then it can suddenly break, for whatever reason  |
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damnek
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May 03, 2014, 07:42:58 PM |
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Ta is good at predicting the way things move under opposing forces and analyzing the raw data of supply and demand. I can sit here and try to predict how a fundamental should affect the price, when a fundamental will affect the price, and how much of the price is due to fundamentals, but I will likely be way off, and trading just the price will be much more effective.
In addition, probably because it is such a new, small and free market, bitcoin acts very predictably once you recognize the patterns. Unlike the dow, where you are trading against high velocity trading bots, market makers and unseen forces creating supply and demand, with bitcoin, you can actually study it enough to see how it acts. It almost acts often like all the traders are in agreement - that is how predictable it is compared to other markets. I have started to observe it daily only since January this year, but so far I am surprised how repetitive this market seems to be. On the other hand, I am still afraid to trust this pattern completely, it can lull us into a false security, and then it can suddenly break, for whatever reason Exactly. And then you try to be patient and wait for the price to come back down and it doesn't.. then finally at $600 you capitulate and buy which happens to be the top  |
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sidhujag
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May 04, 2014, 06:23:59 AM |
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Ta is good at predicting the way things move under opposing forces and analyzing the raw data of supply and demand. I can sit here and try to predict how a fundamental should affect the price, when a fundamental will affect the price, and how much of the price is due to fundamentals, but I will likely be way off, and trading just the price will be much more effective.
Usually TA is all abut phsycology and nothing else... formations you see that you associate with certain outcomes are based on mass perception as a result of fear and greed. Since humans react the same way repeatedly these can be profitable if you spend time studyinh with a plan to attack. As always you can be right 51% of the time and become successful but most people struggle to find themselves thus give up trading. Those who learn to cut losses and move on will utimately succeed in any TA/FA analysis... the rest are buy/holders who believe in long term prospects. |
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wachtwoord
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May 04, 2014, 09:04:36 AM |
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Usually TA is all abut phsycology and nothing else...
lol usually? Isn't that the entire thesis? Analyzing an manipulating herd behavior with self-fulfilling prophecies? |
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chessnut
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May 04, 2014, 09:11:36 AM |
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Usually TA is all abut phsycology and nothing else...
lol usually? Isn't that the entire thesis? Analyzing an manipulating herd behavior with self-fulfilling prophecies? TA and psychology are quite seperate, unless you are talking about EW analysis which looks beyond the chart. Technical analysis only looks to the chart, and it's not practical to tell psychology from a chart alone. .. although herd psychology is certainly key. forget the fundamentals, if you can separate yourself from the crowd, you will make money. |
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