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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9804 times)
eddie13
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December 10, 2019, 06:14:49 PM
 #21

No big deal - eddie13 said Bitcoin's gonna be like $300k by that time so I won't have any financial worries.

Maybe not "by that time", but I am basically "BTC to $300k" with about the same or maybe even more seriousness that I was "BTC to $10k" in like 2015..

There is fine print  "we'll pay you if we feel like it".

I wouldn't doubt that a bit..

He doesn't have to if Republicans decided to grow a backbone.

Lets see if I can recall correctly here..
Didn't the Republican party allow their party to be "destroyed" in the 2016 election primaries by allowing Trump to fairly win the primary, while the Democrats "grew a backbone" and rigged the primary for hillary against that communist bernie?

I don't remember that working out too good for them..
Isn't the DNC in massive debt right now struggling to rake in "donations" while the RNC has money flowing like Niagara Falls?


https://ballotpedia.org/Party_committee_fundraising,_2019-2020
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December 10, 2019, 06:34:48 PM
 #22

At the moment I'd give Trump an advantage, but I wouldn't bet much on it. Biden is currently the clear favorite for the nomination, and although he's a shockingly poor candidate, Trump has several must-win states with close polls. There are many plausible paths for Biden to win vs Trump, even if none of them look particularly probable right now IMO. Also, there's some chance of Bernie or Buttigieg winning the nomination, and I think they'd have much better odds than Biden vs Trump. I also still see an elevated chance of recession in 2020, which would hurt Trump a lot.

If you want to nitpick the bet construction: There is no one "electoral college meeting". Each state has an electoral college meeting at separate places and times; the electors there write down their state's votes and send them to the House of Representatives, where they are tabulated sometime in early January. There's a small chance of odd occurrences here:

First, there's a small but not-safely-ignorable chance of a 270-270 tie, or of a third-party candidate getting votes and creating a non-majority. Then the (incoming) House decides, but they vote in a weird way which (at a quick glance) probably favors the Republicans.

Second, on a majority vote in both the (incoming) House & Senate, a state's electoral votes can be completely ignored on the grounds that the state's electoral votes were not handled legally, such as due to an election conducted contrary to state or federal law. You could imagine this happening if one side wins both chambers of Congress but not the presidency, and they can point to some sort of "election interference" (as both sides like to complain about) in one or more states. This would make your bet particularly ambiguous, since Congress would be saying that some of the electors are not actually proper electors.

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December 10, 2019, 06:38:24 PM
 #23

The liberal insanity has been so high that Trump has to win.

He doesn't have to if Republicans decided to grow a backbone. But since they're going the opposite route I wonder where they'll find a mumbling idiot to nominate in 2024 to keep the base happy. Anyone wanna offer bets on that? Smiley

Bad bet suchmoon

No big deal - eddie13 said Bitcoin's gonna be like $300k by that time so I won't have any financial worries.

So, If I bet there trump to win a @125, if Trump did win I would win .125 if I bet .1?
[...]
According to that chart with hitlery @ +3000, If I bet .1 on the shilldog to win it would pay 30X and therefore pay out 3.0 BTC for a .1 BTC bet?

In a nutshell, yes. There is fine print too, usually hidden somewhere and it's often not well-suited for non-sports events and may come down to "we'll pay you if we feel like it".

Yeah I don't think anyone would feel to comfortable betting on an illegal / not regulated online bookie website for something that's not going to be decided for another year or so. So that's not something  I'd be willing to do.

A Decentralized bet on ETH, MAYBE. But even that I'd feel that within that year time frame someone would be able to crack some code within the decentralized site.

Too long for a bet on a site like this, p2p with multisig is prob best for bigger bets. Smaller ones I guess you could just trust the other side to cough it up.




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December 10, 2019, 07:03:55 PM
 #24

~

Well good for them to be so principled but I meant actual Republican voters. It's like picking cryptohunter to be a global moderator because his posts are the longest. Surely there are candidates who could carry the conservative ideas with more intelligence and ultimately with more impact.

If you want to nitpick the bet construction: There is no one "electoral college meeting". Each state has an electoral college meeting at separate places and times; the electors there write down their state's votes and send them to the House of Representatives, where they are tabulated sometime in early January.

Plural vs singular aside, IIRC by law all meetings are supposed to be held on the same day. Do you know when that would not be the case? If that happens I would consider it a draw if at least one state's electors don't meet by January 31 2021.

First, there's a small but not-safely-ignorable chance of a 270-270 tie, and a smaller chance of a third-party candidate getting votes and creating a non-majority. Then the (incoming) House decides, but they vote in a weird way which (a quick glance) probably favors the Republicans.

eddie13 would lose then. The EC has to elect Trump for eddie13 to win.

Second, on a majority vote in both the (incoming) House & Senate, a state's electoral votes can be completely ignored on the grounds that the state's electoral votes were not handled legally, such as due to an election conducted contrary to state or federal law. You could imagine this happening if one side wins both chambers of Congress but not the presidency, and they can point to some sort of "election interference" (as both sides like to complain about) in one or more states. This would make your bet particularly ambiguous, since Congress would be saying that some of the electors are not actually proper electors.

I would then rely on the states and ignore Congress but if eddie13 feels otherwise we can make an addendum.

This got me thinking if EC vote result is made immediately public in each state. It's public in a few states that I know of but it might have been wrong to assume that's the case everywhere.

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December 10, 2019, 08:53:48 PM
 #25

Trump is currently favored to win the election, but the specific odds reflect that he will lose.

Based on the above, suchmoon could take this bet payout out even money, and bet on Trump to win the election on a reputable gambling site, and profit regardless of who wins the election, provided both counter-parties pay out.


If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

Congrats Suchmoon!

Although, in politics the books just set the prices based on where the money is going, so it's much less of an indicator than any professional sporting event where they analyze huge amounts of data.  Also, most of the money is probably coming from non-US residents.  I had to use a vpn just to access that site.
There are betting markets that operate more like markets than a sports book offering prop bets on the election. The given odds are similar on these markets (the sports books may even use these markets to hedge any bets received in excess of certain amounts.

To be fair, on election morning 2016, IIRC, Trump had something like 3% odds of winning the election on the betting markets.

The OP isn't the only one throwing away her money betting against Trump, immediately after Trump was elected, Soros lost over a billion dollars betting against US stocks after trump won (or maybe it was trying to get markets to fall, IDK).




Second, on a majority vote in both the (incoming) House & Senate, a state's electoral votes can be completely ignored on the grounds that the state's electoral votes were not handled legally, such as due to an election conducted contrary to state or federal law. You could imagine this happening if one side wins both chambers of Congress but not the presidency, and they can point to some sort of "election interference" (as both sides like to complain about) in one or more states. This would make your bet particularly ambiguous, since Congress would be saying that some of the electors are not actually proper electors.
I have my doubts that Democrats would be willing to try this. With impeachment, they are at least pretending that Trump broke the law, but in this scenario, they would be outright ignoring the election outcome. I think even attempting this would result in major Democratic losses in 2022, and would almost seal a loss in 2024. I also have my doubts that Democrats would be united in voting for such a measure. If there was an actual controversy, I would imagine the SC would step in and make a ruling with regards to the specific controversy, similar to what they did in 2000.

I don't think anyone really believes that Stacy Abrams actually won the GA governors race in 2018.

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December 10, 2019, 08:56:01 PM
 #26

Surely there are candidates who could carry the conservative ideas with more intelligence and ultimately with more impact.

I would love a much more conservative president than Trump.. I see him as quite centrist actually, a good bit further left than me..

But, Trump is probably the only one with the personality to stump the left with such precision while shedding their attacks like water off a ducks back, basically saving the country from liberal ideocracy, and most importantly saving the SCOTUS and therefor saving the constitution..

I surely don't like everything Trump does, most prominently being weak on the 2A, including banning bumpstocks..
I would rather their be ZERO compromise on the 2A whatsoever..
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December 10, 2019, 08:58:01 PM
 #27

Crazy bet my friend suchmoon, I remember when casinos offer x5 if trump wins the elections, in that moment i place a bet and people were crazy saying i was wating my money. But it has a happy end.

The problem with this bet is the odds, as you can see in nitro if donal trumps win the house pays x2.125

https://nitrogensports.eu/sport/specials/u.s.-presidential-election

This way if eddie13 places a bet on that site he could warrants a win. If trump wins he get 0.0125 and if trump loses he gets zero but he doesn't lose the risked 0.1
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December 10, 2019, 09:07:10 PM
 #28

Crazy bet my friend suchmoon, I remember when casinos offer x5 if trump wins the elections, in that moment i place a bet and people were crazy saying i was wating my money. But it has a happy end.

The problem with this bet is the odds, as you can see in nitro if donal trumps win the house pays x2.125

https://nitrogensports.eu/sport/specials/u.s.-presidential-election

This way if eddie13 places a bet on that site he could warrants a win. If trump wins he get 0.0125 and if trump loses he gets zero but he doesn't lose the risked 0.1

You've got it backwards. (I think)

Nitrogen is offering 2.125x (+115) On Trump

Eddie took 2.0x with Suchmoon (+100) On Trump


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December 10, 2019, 09:33:58 PM
 #29

Crazy bet my friend suchmoon, I remember when casinos offer x5 if trump wins the elections, in that moment i place a bet and people were crazy saying i was wating my money. But it has a happy end.

The problem with this bet is the odds, as you can see in nitro if donal trumps win the house pays x2.125

https://nitrogensports.eu/sport/specials/u.s.-presidential-election

This way if eddie13 places a bet on that site he could warrants a win. If trump wins he get 0.0125 and if trump loses he gets zero but he doesn't lose the risked 0.1

You've got it backwards. (I think)

Nitrogen is offering 2.125x (+115) On Trump

Eddie took 2.0x with Suchmoon (+100) On Trump



You're right, the other bookie websites will be paying out more. But there's no real way to hedge this whole thing b/c there's no Dem nominee at this point and any money that you put on any individual candidate (think Biden) could turn into nothing if hes not the nominee.

You'd get more on Nitrogen, but who knows if Nitrogen is going to be around in a year and you'd have to leave it on their centralized exchange for this whole time.




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December 10, 2019, 09:47:40 PM
 #30

...

You've got it backwards. (I think)

Nitrogen is offering 2.125x (+115) On Trump

Eddie took 2.0x with Suchmoon (+100) On Trump



Quote
suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election


You are right, if suchmoon place a bet on DT to win 0.2125BTC if he loses the bet he will win 0.0125, and if he win the bet then he will end with cero No win and no lose. It is the chance to win 0.0125 with zero risks. But maybe such a small prize doesn't deserve the move.

Small risk brings small prices. And we could be sure suchmoon and eddie13 will go big or go home  Grin
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December 10, 2019, 10:53:45 PM
 #31

Small risk brings small prices. And we could be sure suchmoon and eddie13 will go big or go home  Grin

Sportsbook arbitrage has been interesting to me ever sense I read topics by darkstar about it seemingly years ago but I never got around to it, vetting all these shady ass betting sites, doing all the math, etc..

I don't even know if it is legal for me, and if not, surely not worth the hassle..


This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..

Its easy to feel like a winner when you don't put down any stakes eh?
I'll take a 0.1BTC 1:1 trump wins 2020..
Should a casino not allow you to make an absolutely stupid bet?
Like betting against Trump 2020 for example? (Ha Ha I Joke)
We'll see who has the last ha ha Smiley

For mouth running references Wink


I like the bet and I'd take it again probably even if I never said this/offered it in the first place..

Is 0.1BTC going big?
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December 10, 2019, 11:33:22 PM
 #32

Small risk brings small prices. And we could be sure suchmoon and eddie13 will go big or go home  Grin

Sportsbook arbitrage has been interesting to me ever sense I read topics by darkstar about it seemingly years ago but I never got around to it, vetting all these shady ass betting sites, doing all the math, etc..

I don't even know if it is legal for me, and if not, surely not worth the hassle..


This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..

Its easy to feel like a winner when you don't put down any stakes eh?
I'll take a 0.1BTC 1:1 trump wins 2020..
Should a casino not allow you to make an absolutely stupid bet?
Like betting against Trump 2020 for example? (Ha Ha I Joke)
We'll see who has the last ha ha Smiley

For mouth running references Wink


I like the bet and I'd take it again probably even if I never said this/offered it in the first place..

Is 0.1BTC going big?

Just to be absolutely clear, the quote from me above was not to suggest a wager, but was pointing out the fact that it is really easy to pretend you were on the right track all along  after the fact when you dither, fence sit, and never declare your own conclusions. Some people like to feel smart on the sidelines never even risking a prediction.

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December 10, 2019, 11:38:33 PM
 #33

This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..

If you wanted to simulate similar bet terms on a sportsbook site the closest you can get I think is to bet on Trump winning and on him not getting the nomination.

Let's say Trump's win offers +125, so you'd need +400 or better on the no-nomination bet so that you could put 0.025 BTC on it and get 0.125 BTC back if Trump doesn't get the nomination.

Still not quite the same since I'm offering a draw if Trump drops out after the nomination as well. And you don't need to tie up additional funds for the hedge bet. And the "no nomination" offer is next to non-existent... most sites offer only a list of potential nominees without a blanket "not Trump" option.

Is 0.1BTC going big?

It's ~0.000005 of a large pizza.


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December 11, 2019, 12:14:28 AM
 #34

-complex gambler speak-

I'm not much of a "gambler" but personal bets are fun..
This won't be the first time I've won and been paid on a bet like this here Smiley but could be my first loss...

I like the bet and don't want to hedge against it..
I wanted the bet and someone finally took it, and I'm glad it's you for a few reasons..



the quote from me above was not to suggest a wager, but was pointing out the fact that it is really easy to pretend you were on the right track all along  after the fact when you dither, fence sit, and never declare your own conclusions. Some people like to feel smart on the sidelines never even risking a prediction.

You didn't pressure me, I just upped the ante..
No fence for me..

Maybe I should bet people on stuff like this more often.. I'll keep it in mind..
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December 11, 2019, 12:17:47 AM
 #35

-complex gambler speak-

I'm not much of a "gambler" but personal bets are fun..
This won't be the first time I've won and been paid on a bet like this here Smiley but could be my first loss...

I like the bet and don't want to hedge against it..
I wanted the bet and someone finally took it, and I'm glad it's you for a few reasons..



the quote from me above was not to suggest a wager, but was pointing out the fact that it is really easy to pretend you were on the right track all along  after the fact when you dither, fence sit, and never declare your own conclusions. Some people like to feel smart on the sidelines never even risking a prediction.

You didn't pressure me, I just upped the ante..
No fence for me..

Maybe I should bet people on stuff like this more often.. I'll keep it in mind..

I wasn't under the impression I pressured you, I just wanted to clarify especially since it was a direct reply to another user. I would tell you good luck with your bet, but seeing how the Democrat party is intent on continuing it's journey to the center of the Earth until they hit a pocket of molten magma, I don't think you need luck.

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December 11, 2019, 01:01:43 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 01:12:35 AM by Balthazar
 #36

0.1 BTC? Pssshhhh. Why you're considering it worthy as bet on presidential elections? I wouldn't even write this post for such amount.
Looks like you're not taking it serious at all.

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December 11, 2019, 01:05:37 AM
 #37

0.1 BTC? Pssshhhh. Why you're considering it as worthy as bet on presidential elections? I wouldn't even write this post for such amount.
Looks like you're not taking it serious at all.

What's your offer?

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December 11, 2019, 01:10:08 AM
 #38

What's your offer?
Considering that you're talking about future of your country, amount should be much higher, like 1 BTC. Or at least should be equal to typical monthly income.

P.S. I'm not eligible to participate in this since I don't have voting rights there.

Darkness isn't born, you know. It's created.
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December 11, 2019, 01:29:43 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 01:48:52 AM by eddie13
 #39

I'm not eligible to participate in this
Sure you are!!

future of your country
I think an argument could be made that presidents are just sockpuppets anyway and it doesn't really even matter..

It's not like a bet is going to change the elections like a proper propaganda campaign, er, I mean, posting memes..
"Russian bots" will decimate Biden with memes..
We already know us the russian bots have plenty of hillary and bernie memes as good as kryptonite from the last war stockpiled..
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December 11, 2019, 01:36:24 AM
 #40

What's your offer?
Considering that you're talking about future of your country, amount should be much higher, like 1 BTC. Or at least should be equal to typical monthly income.

P.S. I'm not eligible to participate in this since I don't have voting rights there.

Nice backpedaling Wink

I don't have "voting rights" either and I don't care if eddie13 does or if he secretly votes for Democrats.

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