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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 10630 times)
eddie13
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November 15, 2020, 03:22:56 PM
 #941

I guess we are only going to do the escrow thing for twitchy and nutildah for now, and I’ll get back to my setup later this afternoon when I can..
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eddie13
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November 15, 2020, 06:15:31 PM
Merited by TwitchySeal (2)
 #942

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?

Sure thing.

Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: eddie13, read your PMs. This is suchmoon 2020-11-14.
Signature: G2a6tJRIVK99kop3wzeG39QExVg1iMmrzUxvnn7Y7Qj+VaQd2L4cWS6A4CKrArArVehg2Cb5sF9gW4iRtcWgmTM=

Address staked here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.msg40261816#msg40261816

Send funds to the address signed in the OP: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb


c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b
suchmoon
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November 15, 2020, 06:46:58 PM
Merited by TwitchySeal (2)
 #943

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

eddie13
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November 15, 2020, 07:59:55 PM
 #944

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..
BayAreaCoins
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November 15, 2020, 09:21:25 PM
 #945

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..

Ignore the "Time" in the photo below.  It is WRONG too.  4sat fees confirm next block the past few days.



Do NOT use the Bitcoin Core fee estimator tools... use your eyes/brains.

Bitcoin Core tries to drive in Sunday traffic with Friday's data.... so so so stupid.

There are MUCH better ways to estimate send fees.


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eddie13
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November 15, 2020, 09:41:42 PM
 #946

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..

Ignore the "Time" in the photo below.  It is WRONG too.  4sat fees confirm next block the past few days.



Do NOT use the Bitcoin Core fee estimator tools... use your eyes/brains.

Bitcoin Core tries to drive in Sunday traffic with Friday's data.... so so so stupid.

There are MUCH better ways to estimate send fees.

You’re right.. Pretty sure I tipped the crap out of some miners..
The one I looked at recommended 300 sat per byte, like omg..
And I had a lot of stuff to get done so I just paid it..
Oh well..
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November 15, 2020, 09:54:24 PM
Merited by TwitchySeal (1)
 #947

I guess we are only going to do the escrow thing for twitchy and nutildah for now, and I’ll get back to my setup later this afternoon when I can..

I was gone for the past few days. But this is an encouraging development as I thought you might consider holding out however long as Trump does. This is my staked address and the address in my profile:

1864jXLSdbZq319oQScCNG1m7nLYbGHuBX

It really was a close one. Nobody knew for sure how it was going to turn out, and on election day I truly thought it was over for Biden!





.
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DaveF
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November 16, 2020, 12:49:30 AM
 #948

You’re right.. Pretty sure I tipped the crap out of some miners..
The one I looked at recommended 300 sat per byte, like omg..
And I had a lot of stuff to get done so I just paid it..
Oh well..

https://mempool.space/ is a good place to look to figure out fees.
Gives you just about everything you need in a nice pretty picture.

As for the bet, there are still some books out there taking action.
Terrible odds and fees but I did find it interesting that you can still put money out there.

-Dave

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BADecker
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November 16, 2020, 12:56:05 AM
 #949

This has been going on for years... this kind of election fraud. Since Trump is draining the Swamp in other areas, he might as well drain the Swamp here, as well.


Sidney Powell with Eric Bolling on the accuracy of Dominion voting machines



Sidney Powell, the former federal prosecutor, goes one-on-one with Eric Bolling to weigh in on what you need to know about Dominion voting machines and the future of our election results.


Sidney Powell with Eric Bolling on the accuracy of Dominion voting machines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNX1GpM8izs



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squatz1
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November 16, 2020, 01:02:43 AM
 #950

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?


So you made all of that money after the 5% fee?

Just as a question, because I've never personally used PredictIT do they spell it out pretty clearly when buying the 'yes' or 'no' portion of the bet that they will be charging you that 5%? I feel like they don't really push it enough, and people are just told that they can make some 'free money' on this platform without taking into account the fees.

It's like the markets (I think this was one of them) where you could bet as to if Kanye would win or something along those lines. You may be able to make 5% on the 'no' side, but all of that is going to go to PredictIt anyway. Plus you're going to be further losing when it comes to credit card fees and such.




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suchmoon
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November 16, 2020, 01:24:41 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #951

So you made all of that money after the 5% fee?

Just as a question, because I've never personally used PredictIT do they spell it out pretty clearly when buying the 'yes' or 'no' portion of the bet that they will be charging you that 5%? I feel like they don't really push it enough, and people are just told that they can make some 'free money' on this platform without taking into account the fees.

It's like the markets (I think this was one of them) where you could bet as to if Kanye would win or something along those lines. You may be able to make 5% on the 'no' side, but all of that is going to go to PredictIt anyway. Plus you're going to be further losing when it comes to credit card fees and such.

There are two different fees: profit fee (10%) and withdrawal fee (5%). Profit fee is mostly bearable because you pay it only if you win and only on the winnings. So if you bet $80, win  $100, you pay $2. The only caveat is that you don't get a fee refund on losses so might wanna be careful rolling over some losing positions.

Withdrawal fee sucks bigly. Basically you have to pay it win or lose, on the whole amount. Which means you need to make at least +5% to break even. The good thing (and probably part of the reason for this fee) is that they accept credit card deposits. So with a 2% credit card cashback it's slightly less horrible.

But of course you can keep betting as much as you like before withdrawing... which is I think what most people are doing there, particularly with these really stupid bets like Trump winning the popular vote. Bet, wait for it to pump a few cents, sell, rinse and repeat. There is a $800 limit per market per person, and max 5000 traders per market, so some of the most popular markets like Dem vs Rep president are full... but there are others like "South Carolina Dem Primary winner elected president", which is basically the same thing. And all trade around 1:9 instead of 1:99 as it should. Insanity.

squatz1
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November 16, 2020, 01:31:55 AM
 #952

So you made all of that money after the 5% fee?

Just as a question, because I've never personally used PredictIT do they spell it out pretty clearly when buying the 'yes' or 'no' portion of the bet that they will be charging you that 5%? I feel like they don't really push it enough, and people are just told that they can make some 'free money' on this platform without taking into account the fees.

It's like the markets (I think this was one of them) where you could bet as to if Kanye would win or something along those lines. You may be able to make 5% on the 'no' side, but all of that is going to go to PredictIt anyway. Plus you're going to be further losing when it comes to credit card fees and such.

There are two different fees: profit fee (10%) and withdrawal fee (5%). Profit fee is mostly bearable because you pay it only if you win and only on the winnings. So if you bet $80, win  $100, you pay $2. The only caveat is that you don't get a fee refund on losses so might wanna be careful rolling over some losing positions.

Withdrawal fee sucks bigly. Basically you have to pay it win or lose, on the whole amount. Which means you need to make at least +5% to break even. The good thing (and probably part of the reason for this fee) is that they accept credit card deposits. So with a 2% credit card cashback it's slightly less horrible.

But of course you can keep betting as much as you like before withdrawing... which is I think what most people are doing there, particularly with these really stupid bets like Trump winning the popular vote. Bet, wait for it to pump a few cents, sell, rinse and repeat. There is a $800 limit per market per person, and max 5000 traders per market, so some of the most popular markets like Dem vs Rep president are full... but there are others like "South Carolina Dem Primary winner elected president", which is basically the same thing. And all trade around 1:9 instead of 1:99 as it should. Insanity.

Ah. Yeah, the withdrawal fee is all I remember being told about. Wasn't so sure about the other fees that are present.

I'm guessing the withdrawal fee for them is just a catch all to deal with credit card processing, as they're in a pretty high risk category when it comes to chargebacks, probably high fee, and so on. Not fully sure on how the legality works when it comes to PredictIt as it is gambling, though they do have those limits per market which is what you spoke of.

May go on there and play with it a bit in an attempt to make a few bucks, lol. Just was always a bit pissed about the whole 5% fees. But I was under the impression that it was 5% plus processing fees, so with a 2% cashback card it takes a bit off and I, thankfully, have one of those.






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November 16, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
 #953

Hey suchmoon, congrats for this winning, i didn't think Trump could lose this one but looks the pandemic and all that people dying win that country plays an important role on this elections. When there were the elections vs Hillary odds was paying x5 on trump, i bet on trump and i get some nice profit, and is nice to see someone making profit while he lose the bone, so congrats again  Wink
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November 22, 2020, 02:00:52 AM
 #954

Trump got slapped down in PA:

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.pamd.127057/gov.uscourts.pamd.127057.202.0_1.pdf

Quote
[...] this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence.

Will that be the end of this nonsense? Nah, I think Trumplings will claim that the federal judge is on Soros' payroll and is refusing to see the invisible evidence.

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November 22, 2020, 03:05:28 AM
 #955

Trump got slapped down in PA:

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.pamd.127057/gov.uscourts.pamd.127057.202.0_1.pdf

Quote
[...] this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence.

Will that be the end of this nonsense? Nah, I think Trumplings will claim that the federal judge is on Soros' payroll and is refusing to see the invisible evidence.

Time for you to get woke on #stopthesteal suchmoon. I spent at least 3 hours watching various videos with that hashtag on twitter today. It's a lot of fun tbh.





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November 22, 2020, 03:41:45 AM
 #956

Time for you to get woke on #stopthesteal suchmoon. I spent at least 3 hours watching various videos with that hashtag on twitter today. It's a lot of fun tbh.

I watched one claiming that Mao wrote the software that counts the votes (I may have some details wrong since I was too busy laughing).

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November 22, 2020, 06:29:15 PM
 #957

Can Trumppers boycotting the GA Senate runoffs bc the whole world is rigged against them really be a thing?

Seems too good to be true

https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-trump-supporters-destroy-gop-boycott-senate-runoffs-1549245


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November 22, 2020, 09:39:20 PM
 #958

The lower court rulings are not going to matter. You should expect at least one PA case to make it to the SCOTUS.

Trump is challenging the election results in court. Expect there to be multiple lawsuits and SC rulings.

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November 22, 2020, 10:41:09 PM
 #959

The lower court rulings are not going to matter. You should expect at least one PA case to make it to the SCOTUS.

Trump is challenging the election results in court. Expect there to be multiple lawsuits and SC rulings.

The lower court rulings are a pretty good indicator of whether or not there's a valid legal argument being made.  In most cases, it doesn't appear there is - the arguments are basically nonsense.

I doubt SCOTUS even bothers with most of the ones that haven't been dropped and the lower court rulings will stand.  


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November 22, 2020, 11:30:22 PM
 #960

The lower court rulings are not going to matter. You should expect at least one PA case to make it to the SCOTUS.

Trump is challenging the election results in court. Expect there to be multiple lawsuits and SC rulings.

The lower court rulings are a pretty good indicator of whether or not there's a valid legal argument being made.

Why do appeals exist?  /logic

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