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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 10630 times)
PrimeNumber7
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November 05, 2020, 05:38:14 AM
 #881

Election is over. Trump will not win AZ.


Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.  


America is not the world-police.
While I agree with this, the above does not mean the rest of the world can do whatever they want without consequence. If a person on the forum is acting in a way I do not like, I may be uninclined to transact business with that person. This is very similar to what Trump was threatening to do with regard to Turkey. Trump has also gotten NATO allies to contribute to defense budgets, which should lead to any "police" action being lead by a broad collation rather than the US alone.

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November 05, 2020, 06:18:11 AM
 #882


Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.  



I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early.

Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.

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November 05, 2020, 06:35:28 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)
 #883

Joe Biden is such a quiet performer, Trump was so loud both on twitter and every time he appears for interviews one would think he has the power to re-elect himself without the people's mandate. It serves him and everyone who is loudmouthed like him to learn to control his expressions. Congratulations to Biden.

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November 05, 2020, 06:43:21 AM
 #884


Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time. 



I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early.

Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.
I would say that NV or AZ going Trump's way is more likely than WI or MI. NV (and to a lesser extent, AZ) has an economy that is heavily based on tourism, and tourism is not possible when the country is locked down. Trump may perform better in Reno and Vegas than he might do in other cities because of the tourism employees voting Trump to avoid lockdown related layoffs and casinos going out of business that would happen under a Biden administration.

In AZ, it will really come down to Maricopa county. I understand he needs about 57% of the remaining vote in Maricopa county to stay competitive in AZ.

Flipping one of AZ, NV, WI or MI would likely put Trump back in the White House until 2024. It may come down to a court case making it to the SC. Trump can also technically still win even if he does not flip any of those states, but otherwise runs the table (takes PA, GA, and NC). If Trump were to stop any of AZ, NV, WI, or MI from casting their electrical votes, Biden would not make it to 270, and Congress would elect the President with each state getting one vote, and Republicans hold the advantage.

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November 05, 2020, 06:58:04 PM
 #885


Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.

Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time. 



I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early.

Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.
I would say that NV or AZ going Trump's way is more likely than WI or MI. NV (and to a lesser extent, AZ) has an economy that is heavily based on tourism, and tourism is not possible when the country is locked down. Trump may perform better in Reno and Vegas than he might do in other cities because of the tourism employees voting Trump to avoid lockdown related layoffs and casinos going out of business that would happen under a Biden administration.

In AZ, it will really come down to Maricopa county. I understand he needs about 57% of the remaining vote in Maricopa county to stay competitive in AZ.

Flipping one of AZ, NV, WI or MI would likely put Trump back in the White House until 2024. It may come down to a court case making it to the SC. Trump can also technically still win even if he does not flip any of those states, but otherwise runs the table (takes PA, GA, and NC). If Trump were to stop any of AZ, NV, WI, or MI from casting their electrical votes, Biden would not make it to 270, and Congress would elect the President with each state getting one vote, and Republicans hold the advantage.

WI and MI have both been called for Biden.

AZ has been called for Biden as well, though it seems like this call may have been too early. News reports are saying that with the amount of absentee ballots Trump could still pull the state back. - If Biden ends up winning this, then NV can decide the fate of this election.

NV has not been called, it's close right now as they're counting the absentee ballots. I think Trump will pull through and win this.

I agree with the analysis about AZ and NV regarding the tourism industry and why they'll be a bit happier to turn to Trump regarding opening the economy.

GA is going to be tight, Pennsylvania as well. Friday will probably be when we hear about these.




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November 05, 2020, 07:47:26 PM
 #886

AZ has been called for Biden as well, though it seems like this call may have been too early. News reports are saying that with the amount of absentee ballots Trump could still pull the state back. - If Biden ends up winning this, then NV can decide the fate of this election.

NV has not been called, it's close right now as they're counting the absentee ballots. I think Trump will pull through and win this.

I agree with the analysis about AZ and NV regarding the tourism industry and why they'll be a bit happier to turn to Trump regarding opening the economy.

GA is going to be tight, Pennsylvania as well. Friday will probably be when we hear about these.

The numbers that are trickling in from AZ don't show the 60:40 advantage that Trump needed to close the gap. And he probably needs more than that now (fewer uncounted votes remain).

PA on the other hand shows 70-80% Biden's advantage in mail-ins and he needs about 60% to close the gap.

Difference in GA is ~12800 votes and ~50000 left to count. This is almost certainly heading to a recount.

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November 05, 2020, 08:04:18 PM
 #887

I was hoping, if I lost, that it would be clear enough for me to just pay up by now..
But I don't think it is, and shittily I think it might be a while yet..

Quite happy that Trump atleast BTFO the pollsters..
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November 05, 2020, 08:13:00 PM
 #888

It does seem unreasonable for the (whatever) electoral committees to ask people to wait past Friday. At the very least they should know they have to do a recount here or there by Friday. Seems like they should have hired people working in shifts around the clock to count these votes faster. Maybe they did, I dunno. But its like cmon already.





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November 05, 2020, 08:53:24 PM
 #889

It does seem unreasonable for the (whatever) electoral committees to ask people to wait past Friday. At the very least they should know they have to do a recount here or there by Friday. Seems like they should have hired people working in shifts around the clock to count these votes faster. Maybe they did, I dunno. But its like cmon already.

It's probably not just hiring more people. I know in my county they can't really count the mail-ins any faster due to other constraints - scanners etc. And it's not like the state gave them unlimited funds to do it. And there's a shitload of mail-in ballots this year.




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November 05, 2020, 09:43:21 PM
 #890

Have to say one about Trump, like him or loathe him the fact remains he got more votes this time round than he did in 2016. Rather than get less votes than in 2016 he increased it and that is saying something about the fact that so much of the USA (mainly the mid-west) actually believe in a lot of what Trump stood for so credit has to go to Trump and his team...

... having said that, he can cry all he likes about voter (mail) fraud and lack of poll observers and so on - the evidence suggests Biden will win the race to the White House and Trump will be a one-term President.

I was hoping, if I lost, that it would be clear enough for me to just pay up by now..
But I don't think it is, and shittily I think it might be a while yet..

Quite happy that Trump atleast BTFO the pollsters..

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November 05, 2020, 11:21:25 PM
 #891

I was hoping, if I lost, that it would be clear enough for me to just pay up by now..
But I don't think it is, and shittily I think it might be a while yet..

Quite happy that Trump atleast BTFO the pollsters..
I was hoping for the same thing.  Look at us agreeing on something Smiley

It's definitely not over though, I'd settle for a 10% discount right now.  Offer good till midnight EST tonight.

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November 05, 2020, 11:40:09 PM
 #892

Moving from the other thread:

Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that

I'm a bit concerned about random crypto bookies, I don't trust their decision logic.

So I did it in fiat on PredictIt, already up $100 since yesterday. Not sure if I should take it or let it ride...

Edit: this a bet on Biden winning Georgia.

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November 05, 2020, 11:51:06 PM
 #893

Moving from the other thread:

Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that

I'm a bit concerned about random crypto bookies, I don't trust their decision logic.

So I did it in fiat on PredictIt, already up $100 since yesterday. Not sure if I should take it or let it ride...

Edit: this a bet on Biden winning Georgia.

PolyMarket (the ETH) one is pretty good, or at least I've heard,haven't used it myself.

Fair on not liking random crypto bookies. Especially because the ones that are offering state by state stuff are going to be a bit more.... interesting, to say the least. Most of the reputable ones, like Stake.com (which is owned by PrimeDice) is only offering (or was only offering) betting on the Presidential race as a whole, not betting for a particular state.

I'm not a big fan of PredictIt due to the massive fees during usage. Pretty sure they take like 5% of all bets.




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November 06, 2020, 12:01:50 AM
Last edit: November 06, 2020, 02:32:10 PM by suchmoon
 #894

I'm not a big fan of PredictIt due to the massive fees during usage. Pretty sure they take like 5% of all bets.

They have fees on winnings (fair) and fees on withdrawals (sucks). But since I'm going to either bust or win +40% then the withdrawal fee won't matter much.

Edit: Biden ahead both in GA and PA. If Biden takes all states he's leading he'll get 306 electors... two more than Trump did in 2016. That's gotta hurt.

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November 06, 2020, 07:43:38 PM
 #895

Joe Biden is in the straight way to white house. Many people are worry if Biden will do more than Trump during four years he spend in the office. Trump development will surely make him return back to compete his another four year. Trump always have the US citizens at heart.
I think despite the delay of the result of the US Trump will still win.

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November 06, 2020, 07:58:51 PM
 #896

Joe Biden is in the straight way to white house. Many people are worry if Biden will do more than Trump during four years he spend in the office.

If he cleans up most of the mess left behind we'll be happy.

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November 06, 2020, 08:31:26 PM
 #897

It does seem inevitable that after the waiting game is over Biden and Harris are going to the White House. It seems a little sad but not unexpected to see Trump clutching at straws knowing he has lost the election but is using legal means to prolong the outcome.

Biden will have very little time to get comfortable behind his desk at the oval office because he will be getting to work fixing the mess Trump left behind and making immediate attempts to repair damaged international relations with friends and allies that Trump is personally held responsible for doing in the eyes of many.


Joe Biden is in the straight way to white house. Many people are worry if Biden will do more than Trump during four years he spend in the office.

If he cleans up most of the mess left behind we'll be happy.

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November 06, 2020, 08:52:28 PM
 #898

discussing the election itself is on topic.
Great Cheesy I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

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November 06, 2020, 09:03:40 PM
 #899

Some news channels award the states before the full count has been completed according to the number of ballots counted and those remaining with a high probability the current loser will not be able to surmount a revival or comeback but other news channels operate in a different way. I have watched several news channels, one right now shows Biden on 264 and another shows him on 253 but both shows Trump on 214. It has been like that since yesterday without movement because the remaining states are too close to call right now as their counting draw to a close.



discussing the election itself is on topic.
Great Cheesy I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

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November 06, 2020, 09:10:32 PM
 #900

discussing the election itself is on topic.
Great Cheesy I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

Transparency I guess. Partial results in most cases (~45 states out of 50) are good enough to tell the outcome early in the process.

There is nothing inherently wrong with partial results except that the Twitter generation has grown accustomed to instant gratification to the point that they can't wait a few days for results on something that doesn't even take effect until mid-January. And people can't math or are just plain stupid so they think there must be cheating if it doesn't go the way they want.

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