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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9628 times)
suchmoon
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October 27, 2020, 11:01:06 PM
 #821

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

Seems perfectly fine to me but I'm not setting the rules over there. It's a bit funny though how you first jumped on it but now... losing confidence? Grin

Chant a few MAGAs, get your game back on!

Its more sensor than ship though.

Too sophisticated. Self-mod retaliation is more like this:

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eddie13
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October 27, 2020, 11:01:44 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2020, 11:20:08 PM by eddie13
 #822

The NRA

Life member since I was about 11 or 12 Wink

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

Seems perfectly fine to me but I'm not setting the rules over there. It's a bit funny though how you first jumped on it but now... losing confidence? Grin

Well.. I could be 100% certain it wouldn't benefit my Satoshi stash, couldn't I?

I look at these bets as a risk to benefit my wallet, not just a chance to lose a bunch of Satoshis "for a good cause"..

I have spent FAR too much of my life/time helping other people and not getting anywhere for it..
It's time to help ME..
Huge reason I'm taking an out of town gig, is to escape and focus on myself for a change.. My financial security and my future, instead of always spending my life away to help someone else..
Literally gave a bunch of my blood away today to make it happen, + piss, and took a dose of radiation straight to the heart..

Think I pass, hope I pass.. Have some hearing loss apparently, likely from bangsticks..
Gyfts
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October 28, 2020, 12:06:49 AM
Merited by TwitchySeal (1)
 #823

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

After messing around with the electoral map, Biden quite literally has 270+ electoral votes before even factoring in swing stages. Take all the democratic states where Biden is leading largely and give them to him (including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Biden wins.

Give Trump all of his red states, he still needs Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and one of the three rust belt states above to barely break 270. All these states are essentially toss ups. Some models have given Texas "lean R" to "toss up" but there is no way in hell Texas will vote for Biden so I'm not going to bother including that.

Out of the three rust belt states, Pennsylvania is probably the closest. Recent poll has Trump up by 2 points, but it's not a very accurate poll. Looking at Biden's RCP average, it dropped largely from what it was a month ago.

So, the ONLY outcome of Trump winning this election is taking all the swing states, and stealing Pennsylvania from Biden which is about the only state that is within the margin of error out of the three I mentioned above.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/mRL9Y

I have Biden at 279 electoral votes so far.

For a Trump victory, this is what I predict that electoral map would look like:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZmP8Q

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October 28, 2020, 04:15:57 AM
 #824

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

After messing around with the electoral map, Biden quite literally has 270+ electoral votes before even factoring in swing stages. Take all the democratic states where Biden is leading largely and give them to him (including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Biden wins.

Give Trump all of his red states, he still needs Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and one of the three rust belt states above to barely break 270. All these states are essentially toss ups. Some models have given Texas "lean R" to "toss up" but there is no way in hell Texas will vote for Biden so I'm not going to bother including that.

Out of the three rust belt states, Pennsylvania is probably the closest. Recent poll has Trump up by 2 points, but it's not a very accurate poll. Looking at Biden's RCP average, it dropped largely from what it was a month ago.

So, the ONLY outcome of Trump winning this election is taking all the swing states, and stealing Pennsylvania from Biden which is about the only state that is within the margin of error out of the three I mentioned above.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/mRL9Y

I have Biden at 279 electoral votes so far.

For a Trump victory, this is what I predict that electoral map would look like:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZmP8Q

If you play around with 538's little tool - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews - you're able to see that the map can get interesting pretty fast. Take this situation:

Trump winning Florida changes this map around very quickly. That immediately puts him at a 30 percent chance of winning. Then if Arizona comes in, we're at a 55-43 situation, with Biden still leading. But now we're in cointoss territory as Trump has defied the polls in some places, which means that turnout is probably pretty good for him and the GOP.

This isn't such an easy win for Biden like the media is making it out to be.





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Gyfts
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November 01, 2020, 02:56:49 AM
Last edit: November 01, 2020, 05:08:30 AM by Gyfts
 #825

Only a few days out, so some concluding remarks on this election cycle in regards to the campaigns.

I'll start with Trump because he is obviously the extreme underdog.

If Trump loses:

I think his campaign was ran horribly. His last 1.5 weeks of campaigning was based on a Hunter Biden story which correctly points out that Hunter used his dad's last name to make bank across the globe. But, who cares? The media would never run with it, obviously, and Americans do not care enough to do research into the matter themselves. Other issues are more important. There's evidence that the polling gap closed in Trump's favor over the last couple weeks, so it was a devastating mistake to shift his campaign message away from Biden's extreme policies, and focus it on his son who isn't running. My personal view is that the Hunter Biden story pointed out that Biden is this typical Washington DC corrupt politician, but again, is some middle class family man going to think the same thing? Would they care? Meh.

COVID-19 obviously another reason why Trump loses. Joe Biden is the normal candidate and Americans, when faced with crisis, depend on someone who is "normal" for comfort. I don't really blame them. If all you are watching is CNN doom and gloom headlines, you will feel panicked. Trump also like a fucking dipshit ran his Twitter account into overdrive (this is my BIGGEST gripe with Trump, being a complete fool with his twitter account). He on numerous occasions would butt heads with Dr. Fauci who was the only doctor that Americans would feel comfortable with (for reasons I don't understand). On policy, Trump didn't do that bad. But do Americans *feel* safe with Trump in office? Probably not. And we know how this works, feelings over facts.


If Biden loses:

In my opinion, it's because of two reasons.

1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Splitting the lane with the moderates and the left.

You can get the strong sense, even if you're a liberal, that Kamala Harris is an extremely dishonest character. Realistically, had it not been for George Floyd, we would see Klobuchar as Biden's VP pick. This knee jerk reaction to select a black woman who has an extreme left history (GND, most liberal record in Senate, Medicare 4 all) would be Biden's biggest mistake. She was California's top cop, and now she is supposedly going to be a champion of the left and fight for police reform? Sure. Anyone can recognize she is an opportunist who say anything to get elected. She is going to be the U.S.'s president if Biden wins.

Second point, Joe Biden on policy needed to stick to the moderate lane and he didn't. Whether it's in regard to police reform, climate change, immigration/amnesty, he's chosen the extreme far left position across the board to capture the far left and moderate lane. Problem is, you really can't have both. Biden's suggestion that America and law enforcement are systemically racist is not a winning message. Advocating for trillions in government spending to make a miniscule impact on climate change while destroying the U.S. economy is not a winning plan. And paving the way for millions of illegals to become citizens just so you get more democratic voters not a logical way to solve illegal immigration. I've said it before -- on policy, Trump wins. On character, Biden wins by a landslide. I guess we'll see on Tuesday what Americans care more about but if the polling is any indication, we already know the answer.

What do you guys think about this?


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November 01, 2020, 03:18:40 AM
 #826

What do you guys think about this?

Trump doesn't have policies. He's a useful tool for McConnell to rubber stamp judges and tax cuts but that could be done by any Republican president. Mexico is still not paying for the wall, China is still not paying the tariffs, and people seem to be catching on to the con.

Biden is about as vapid as a politician can get but that's where the pendulum swings when you gamble on a reality TV show host to run a country and the gamble plays out roughly how you would expect it to play out.

As for the stuff that you labeled "extreme far left" - which would be center-right in sane countries but I digress - unless Democrats win the Senate there will be very little of that. And perhaps not much even if they do win the Senate. Just like Trump couldn't deport all illegals, Biden won't make them all citizens. Big problems are hard to solve, who knew.

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November 01, 2020, 04:08:42 AM
 #827

Feeling like Trump will pull it off somehow no matter what the media says..

Feeling like Trump has a better chance of winning this one than 2016 when I was ecstatically astounded by the results and really expecting him to loose..

If not.. No reason to really worry about it for me..
Roll with the punches..
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November 01, 2020, 07:07:06 AM
 #828

Trump also like a fucking dipshit ran his Twitter account into overdrive (this is my BIGGEST gripe with Trump, being a complete fool with his twitter account).

Say what?  Trump’s Presidential Tweets are his best feature!  I did indicate that I do not take him so seriously...

On character, Biden wins by a landslide.

Say what!?  Character?  The stereotypical sleazy career politician, the old-school crypto-banner and extreme Drug Warrior cum “civil liberties” darling who turns whichever way the wind blows, and selects this as his running-mate:
You can get the strong sense, even if you're a liberal, that Kamala Harris is an extremely dishonest character. Realistically, had it not been for George Floyd, we would see Klobuchar as Biden's VP pick. This knee jerk reaction to select a black woman who has an extreme left history (GND, most liberal record in Senate, Medicare 4 all) would be Biden's biggest mistake. She was California's top cop, and now she is supposedly going to be a champion of the left and fight for police reform? Sure. Anyone can recognize she is an opportunist who say anything to get elected. She is going to be the U.S.'s president if Biden wins.

On character, Biden loses by default!  He does not know what “character” is.

Trump is a cheap showman, but his TV-boss tomfoolery seems almost innocent compared to Biden’s smoothly polished professional lie-machine.


Feeling like Trump will pull it off somehow no matter what the media says..

Ah, you’re onto the trick!  The media will set a narrative that Trump is bound to lose.  They will do it one way or another, any way they can.  I don’t buy it.  Maybe he will lose—maybe not—it is simply political realism to recognize that just as in 2016, it is a very close call between the frenzy of Trump-lovers, and the frenzy of Trump-haters.

The outcome looks tantamount to a coin-flip, IMO.


As for the stuff that you labeled "extreme far left" - which would be center-right in sane countries but I digress -

Stereotypically simpleminded American know-it-all, living in a fantasy that saner peoples are all a bunch of far-left Socialists.

It is bad enough when American right-wingers pretend that everything outside their borders is practically the Soviet Union.  Worse when you do it approvingly.

FYI, the only reason why it sometimes comes off that way is that the Communist NATO-puppet* régimes in e.g. Europe have passed extreme political censorship laws that criminalize any speech not passing Soviet-style litmus tests.  Thus for instance, Europeans are legally prohibited from having an honest discussion of, say, immigration policy.  Seriously:  In much of Europe, you can come under police investigation for engaging in Facebook discussions about the impact of immigration on your posterity (!).

The only reason why TPTB still tolerate the First Amendment in your country is that the insane American population is so extremely far to the left, dissent from the Marxist agenda is marginal and mostly irrelevant.  If that changes, expect for it to be piecewise dismantled similarly as your Second Amendment—with liberals cheering.  Indeed, that has already been a gradual process ongoing for decades—and there is currently a big push to accelerate it.  Free speech lovers, watch out.


* Yes, I could back that up—with a bird’s-eye view appetizer, not an historical main course, of headline quotes from Wesley Clark and his clique dictating the future of how Europeans shall run their countries.  However, (0) it is off-topic in a thread about the American reality-TV “election”, and (1) attempts to educate the ineducable are not worth my time.

/0 
  😼
“Qui mori didicit, servire dedidicit.”
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November 01, 2020, 06:57:48 PM
 #829

Only a few days out, so some concluding remarks on this election cycle in regards to the campaigns.

I'll start with Trump because he is obviously the extreme underdog.

If Trump loses:

I think his campaign was ran horribly. His last 1.5 weeks of campaigning was based on a Hunter Biden story which correctly points out that Hunter used his dad's last name to make bank across the globe. But, who cares? The media would never run with it,
There is some evidence that Joe Biden was personally profiting off his Hunter's deals. This means that Joe Biden formulated his positions (as a Senator), and US policy (as Vice President) based on money his family was receiving.

Joe Biden had been a senator for 40 years when he became Vice President. If Joe Biden had refused to be influenced by money his family was receiving over 40 years, Hunter's ability to make money off of his family name would be near zero. Over time, the Biden family would develop a reputation for either changing stances based on money received by his family, or not doing this.

I think the real scandal is the censorship of the story, and the media's refusal to report on it. Some have questioned if the coverage of this story (or more specifically, the lack thereof) is an indication that the media will become defacto state-media if Biden is elected.

If Biden loses:

In my opinion, it's because of two reasons.

1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Splitting the lane with the moderates and the left.

It appears that Biden made a deal with the devil (the far left wing of his party) once he got nominated. It appears that he is trying to avoid the same anger from Sanders' supporters when Bernie was denied the nomination in 2016.

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nullius
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November 02, 2020, 04:34:36 AM
 #830

⚠ WARNING:  This post contains disgusting levels of pedantry.

The following re-spins something that I almost posted in the Wall Observer, awhile back.  It seems more appropriate here.

On character, Biden wins by a landslide.
Say what!?

Looking upthread—wow, wow, wow.  Epic.  The most that Kitty ever gave to me at once was 20 merits for tagging cryptohunter!

Re: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon
Merited by Lauda (29)
Anyone considering to vote for Biden should read the lyrics of her song WEX and consider if you want to vote for someone who is associating with someone like Cardi B.

Question:  Is Biden-bunny Cardi B promoting homosexuality, or bestiality?  —Or torture? Shocked

  • Homosexuality, “wet arse-pussy”:  Whilst investigating the abyss of cultural mass-destruction in the dark corners of the Internet, I have observed homosexual males using slang that identifies their anuses with terms for female anatomy.  I will not be more specific here.  You don’t want to know.  Cardi B’s American “ass pussy” is quite close.
  • Bestiality, “wet ass-pussy”:  Cardi B wants YOU to fuck a sexually receptive asinine liberal.


    The Party of the Ass

  • Torture, “wet ass pussy”:  Much though I dislike liberals, it is wrong to waterboard their cats!


    And it is wrong to torture me with infelicitous noun modifiers.

Cardi B throws a parse error.

* nullius is confused.

Warning:  I have been known to tryst with masochistic animals of species Puella asinina, who are responsive to me as to an antihero.  Thus, I suppose that I do know wet asinine pussy.

/0 
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November 02, 2020, 11:46:18 AM
 #831

All the polls shows a Biden victory is certain but they did just that in 2016 when Trump was up against Hillary and she ended up with the popular vote whereas Trump won the electoral college vote. I would say it seems Biden could win with both the popular and college votes maybe even with a landslide but as with what happened in 2016 nothing can be taken for granted.


Feeling like Trump will pull it off somehow no matter what the media says..

Feeling like Trump has a better chance of winning this one than 2016 when I was ecstatically astounded by the results and really expecting him to loose..

If not.. No reason to really worry about it for me..
Roll with the punches..

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November 02, 2020, 07:00:24 PM
 #832

We are with you TRUMP.  Cool

From Turkey.     

UYARI: Danışman veya teknik analiz desteği veren biri değilim.Paylaşımlar yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.
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November 02, 2020, 07:13:30 PM
 #833

We are with you TRUMP.  Cool

From Turkey.     


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November 02, 2020, 11:05:23 PM
 #834



In 2018 Trump tried to destroy the Turkish economy by strangling the Turkish Lira to the point it plummeted in value: https://www.ft.com/content/f50594a8-9c96-11e8-ab77-f854c65a4465

Turkey is the biggest contributor of armed forces to NATO after the US and Trump treated a NATO ally with contempt. If Trump ends up being a one term President then all so-called Trump towers and all Trump branding in Turkey will be renamed. If he manages to win a second term then he will have time to try to repair the damage by engaging with the Turks before he leaves office.

Trump is no friend of Turkey and from what I managed find online most Turks do not like Trump and will never stand by him.


We are with you TRUMP.  Cool

From Turkey.    

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November 02, 2020, 11:19:00 PM
Last edit: November 03, 2020, 01:04:34 AM by nullius
 #835

We are with you TRUMP.  Cool

From Turkey.    



Edit:  Thank you, actmyname, for the source link.  My apologies to Twitchy.  Retracted:

Fact check:  Is that a real quote?  (If yes, link please?)  Something seems (cough) just a wee bit hinky about it; and it’s not wise to spread satirical quotes without some obvious marker of it being just that.

* nullius is quite persnickety about fake quotes, misquotes, misattributions, and other misinformation and disinformation.

If you want to make a parody tweet, this is how it’s done:

There is now a much worse “four-letter word”.

Quote from: nullius (DRAFT)
2016, with obsolete language:


2018, after Faketoshi stuck a fork in his back, Jihan changes his tune and upgrades his F-bombs:


Observe the obviously fake URL, the odd number “LOL”, and the question of just how I myself “liked” it “leet” times when I don’t even use Twitter.

/0 
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November 03, 2020, 12:55:22 AM
Merited by TwitchySeal (1), nullius (1)
 #836

Fact check:  Is that a real quote?  (If yes, link please?)  Something seems (cough) just a wee bit hinky about it; and it’s not wise to spread satirical quotes without some obvious marker of it being just that.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

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November 03, 2020, 01:11:41 AM
 #837

My election prediction 24 hours before we start getting results: Biden wins handily.

We effectively know the result by 3 AM eastern US time, but it's all but certain early when Biden narrowly carries Florida (~2.5%). Biden wins the national popular vote (not that anyone cares) by ~ 7.2%. Not quite landslide territory, but enough for a very clear result.

The major networks will be giddy, but they won't call the result on election night.

Trump does hold Arizona, but he's unable to replicate his 2016 breakthroughs in MI, WI, or PA (although PA will not be called on election night).

Georgia ultimately goes for Biden, but Texas remains red one more time.

With Florida going for Biden, Trump ends up not doing anything stupid like "declaring" victory, although neither does he give a concession speech on election night.
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November 03, 2020, 03:01:41 AM
 #838

So....I really hope Biden wins tomorrow.

Just want to say publicly that if he does win, I intend to put effort into not rubbing it in or being a vengeful asshole.  I probably won't be able to resist entirely, but hopefully the act of posting this will make it less likely I get carried away and go overboard with the trolly gloating.


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November 03, 2020, 03:30:17 AM
 #839

So....I really hope Biden wins tomorrow.

Just want to say publicly that if he does win, I intend to put effort into not rubbing it in or being a vengeful asshole.  I probably won't be able to resist entirely, but hopefully the act of posting this will make it less likely I get carried away and go overboard with the trolly gloating.

Quoting for proof.

Luckily I'm not bound by any such intentions. In fact I think I'm obligated to gloat if I win the bet.

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November 03, 2020, 03:33:18 AM
 #840

So....I really hope Biden wins tomorrow.

Just want to say publicly that if he does win, I intend to put effort into not rubbing it in or being a vengeful asshole.  I probably won't be able to resist entirely, but hopefully the act of posting this will make it less likely I get carried away and go overboard with the trolly gloating.



This restraint is more than what the blue twitter check marks are willing to admit. I think liberals are going to have a party tomorrow instead of taking this victory with modesty, and I think many conservatives have already came to the realization that Biden will win, giving us 4 years of Kamala Harris.

On the contrary, if Trump does win, I hope the left doesn't riot in the streets. But it's wishful thinking.

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