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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9804 times)
squatz1
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July 28, 2020, 07:18:13 AM
 #461

You are right, in politics in 100 days many things can happen. There are so many variables that could swing the election either way but momentum seems to be with Biden and he should not make any outlandish statements otherwise he will jeopardise any chance to winning. Trump on the other hand will probably not might not be going down the softly-soft approach instead might stick to his aggressive and direct comments approach which just could be what his supporters and those sitting on the fence need to get him re-elected.

As for the whole email server thing and what else happened in the run up to the 2016 election, nothing to say history will not repeat itself with some other allegation and investigation - who knows.

Yup, 100 days really is a LOT of time.

Remember when James Comey came out 7 days before the election and said that he was reopening the case into Hillary Clinton? I honestly think that is one of the things (not the only variable, but one of them) that helped in changing the fate of the 2016 election. That may not have the same effect now in regards to Biden, as people don't trust AG Barr and the FBI director Christopher Wray as they (liberals and some moderates) consider them Trump cronies. Guess we weren't so so hyper partisan back in 2016.

Yup, long long time. Though I do think (as said before) that if an allegation comes from inside the Trump admin (Barr, or someone like this) then it's not going to be something that the liberals take seriously.

Could always have a wikileaks situation for either candidate. Credible sexual assault / harassement allegation.

Shit Biden and Trump are so old that by chance they could die of natural causes - though this would be FILLED with conspiracy theories though.

Just spitballing here, lol.




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July 28, 2020, 01:38:29 PM
 #462

It is possible that Biden could die from complications from his dementia. I also don’t think he will be able to get away with staying in his bunker until Election Day. Trump agreed to an interview with Chris Wallace, agreeing to be asked any question, while Biden the following week declined an interview. The mere declining to accept an interview is a bad look on the part of Biden and gives trump ammunition to attack Biden.

The BLM “protests” have also turned into ~5% protest(if that much), 95% riot/violence, and I can see a backlash against the violence. The Democrats failing to condem the political violence early in the rioting (in May) is going to backfire.

I don’t see Biden participating in any debates, but if he does, his poll numbers would quickly drop when the public can see just how good his cognitive ability is. There is also the risk that his dementia gets so bad that he cannot even makes the highly scripted and controlled appearances he is making now.

It is also possible that whoever the DNC chooses to be the VP pick will drop out some number of weeks before the election after seeing how Biden is doing out of fear of embarrassment resulting from it being exposed how Biden is doing. 

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July 28, 2020, 10:23:34 PM
 #463

Speaking of conspiracy theories, I wonder if any candidates have ever died during the Presidential race.

Keeping that aside, it takes just one sensationalised headline or one leaked bit of information from an insider to be discussed all over the media which could make or break a campaign. Politics is too fickle, maybe the negative press and mass movement against Trump and against racism will ensure Biden wins the Presidential race. Maybe the rhetoric that saw Trump get elected to the white house in 2016 in the first place will be the same reason he will get re-elected.

I have my ears and ears focused to see what is going on in the run up to the November 2020 election Grin


Yup, long long time. Though I do think (as said before) that if an allegation comes from inside the Trump admin (Barr, or someone like this) then it's not going to be something that the liberals take seriously.

Could always have a wikileaks situation for either candidate. Credible sexual assault / harassement allegation.

Shit Biden and Trump are so old that by chance they could die of natural causes - though this would be FILLED with conspiracy theories though.

Just spitballing here, lol.

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July 28, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
 #464

Speaking of conspiracy theories, I wonder if any candidates have ever died during the Presidential race.

Keeping that aside, it takes just one sensationalised headline or one leaked bit of information from an insider to be discussed all over the media which could make or break a campaign. Politics is too fickle, maybe the negative press and mass movement against Trump and against racism will ensure Biden wins the Presidential race. Maybe the rhetoric that saw Trump get elected to the white house in 2016 in the first place will be the same reason he will get re-elected.

I have my ears and ears focused to see what is going on in the run up to the November 2020 election Grin


Yup, long long time. Though I do think (as said before) that if an allegation comes from inside the Trump admin (Barr, or someone like this) then it's not going to be something that the liberals take seriously.

Could always have a wikileaks situation for either candidate. Credible sexual assault / harassement allegation.

Shit Biden and Trump are so old that by chance they could die of natural causes - though this would be FILLED with conspiracy theories though.

Just spitballing here, lol.

Yes. Election of 1872 the nominee of the one of the major parties died after the election but BEFORE the electoral college went ahead and voted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1872_United_States_presidential_election# So I'm not sure if that fits what you're talking about, but it still is someone dying during a presidential run.

100% - a headline can kill a race at any point.

Who knows though, still a long time from the election and ALSO a long time from the first debates (which could also change the fate of the election)




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July 30, 2020, 12:22:16 AM
 #465

To be fair he did stick to the written speech for the most part. B- for reading. I give him 2-3 weeks before he throws a tantrum again.

My TDS is making think 2-3 days is more likely.

You were closer, 4 days:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-briefing/index.html

Quote
When Trump was pressed by CNN's Kaitlan Collins about his words of support for a doctor who downplayed masks and suggested alien DNA was used in medical treatments, he cut the briefing short and stormed out.

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July 30, 2020, 01:12:38 AM
 #466

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/spoiler-alert-kamala-harris-may-have-been-outed-as-joe-bidens-v-p-pick

Essentially all but confirmed that Kamala Harris is going to be Biden's pick for VP. For staunch Biden supporters, what're your thoughts? She's a moderate obviously but she reminds me of Hillary Clinton. Flips positions a lot, seems fairly inauthentic. I guess that's not gonna matter because no one isn't going to vote for the democratic ticket over Harris. I preferred Amy Klobuchar.

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July 30, 2020, 06:20:12 AM
 #467

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/spoiler-alert-kamala-harris-may-have-been-outed-as-joe-bidens-v-p-pick

Essentially all but confirmed that Kamala Harris is going to be Biden's pick for VP. For staunch Biden supporters, what're your thoughts? She's a moderate obviously but she reminds me of Hillary Clinton. Flips positions a lot, seems fairly inauthentic. I guess that's not gonna matter because no one isn't going to vote for the democratic ticket over Harris. I preferred Amy Klobuchar.

Yeah, Politico really fucked up here. MAYBE--

Though I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist here so this is what I'm thinking. I'm thinking that the Biden camp pushed this out to try to see what the general public was going to think about it. Gives some time for the powerful donors in the DNC to feel out what the people think about Kamala, if they don't like her conservative law and order past they'll just say that it was bullshit and end it there.

But if this really was just an early warning to Politico and they confidentially made it public, they're really stupid and have probably hurt their reputation among political campaigns.




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July 30, 2020, 06:46:10 AM
 #468

Yeah, Politico really fucked up here. MAYBE--

Though I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist here so this is what I'm thinking. I'm thinking that the Biden camp pushed this out to try to see what the general public was going to think about it. Gives some time for the powerful donors in the DNC to feel out what the people think about Kamala, if they don't like her conservative law and order past they'll just say that it was bullshit and end it there.

Harris is awful based on her record as California AG alone. If you've seen her congressional hearings with Brett Kavanaugh or William Barr, she's insufferable and goes for gotcha questions instead of legitimate inquiries. Hyper partisan to say the least and she literally has done nothing in the Senate other than prepping for a Presidential run trying to grandstand. Her campaign failed miserably and I predicted when she dropped out prematurely that she was promised either a VP spot or administration position in Biden's administration. Can't have Harris stealing the black vote away from Biden.  If she becomes VP, she knows she'll become the Presidential candidate in 2024 when Biden steps down due to old age and she's got a free pathway to the Presidency.

But if this really was just an early warning to Politico and they confidentially made it public, they're really stupid and have probably hurt their reputation among political campaigns.

It was a prewritten piece set to go live once Biden announced. Most likely every major news organization has a draft written out and do so to be first when the news drops.

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July 30, 2020, 07:57:04 AM
 #469

Yeah, Politico really fucked up here. MAYBE--

Though I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist here so this is what I'm thinking. I'm thinking that the Biden camp pushed this out to try to see what the general public was going to think about it. Gives some time for the powerful donors in the DNC to feel out what the people think about Kamala, if they don't like her conservative law and order past they'll just say that it was bullshit and end it there.

Harris is awful based on her record as California AG alone. If you've seen her congressional hearings with Brett Kavanaugh or William Barr, she's insufferable and goes for gotcha questions instead of legitimate inquiries. Hyper partisan to say the least and she literally has done nothing in the Senate other than prepping for a Presidential run trying to grandstand. Her campaign failed miserably and I predicted when she dropped out prematurely that she was promised either a VP spot or administration position in Biden's administration. Can't have Harris stealing the black vote away from Biden.  If she becomes VP, she knows she'll become the Presidential candidate in 2024 when Biden steps down due to old age and she's got a free pathway to the Presidency.

But if this really was just an early warning to Politico and they confidentially made it public, they're really stupid and have probably hurt their reputation among political campaigns.

It was a prewritten piece set to go live once Biden announced. Most likely every major news organization has a draft written out and do so to be first when the news drops.

Harris is POSSIBLY the worst candidate to pick given all of this. Theymos had a pretty large writeup about it (and some sources) regarding how conservative Harris was as the AG of California. She literally was a law and order prosecutor who utilized the 3 strike rule to put people in jail forever. Crazy to think that she's trying to (and I guess sucessfully) turning that persona around.

She is a gotcha politician, but then again most people are.

VP pick really doesn't mean anything for the race though, was looking at polls earlier (national polls) with all of the different potential choices and they're all within a percent of one another.





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July 30, 2020, 08:37:17 AM
 #470

Thank you squatz1

1872 is a long time back  Grin

Both contenders in the November 2020 race are well in to their 70's and neither looks particularly healthy or in good physical shape. Biden looks frail and ill, Trump looks like he is in trouble with facial sweating and all.. I wonder if whoever wins will actually complete their full 4 year term.


Yes. Election of 1872 the nominee of the one of the major parties died after the election but BEFORE the electoral college went ahead and voted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1872_United_States_presidential_election# So I'm not sure if that fits what you're talking about, but it still is someone dying during a presidential run.

100% - a headline can kill a race at any point.

Who knows though, still a long time from the election and ALSO a long time from the first debates (which could also change the fate of the election)

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July 30, 2020, 05:02:05 PM
 #471

Thank you squatz1

1872 is a long time back  Grin

Both contenders in the November 2020 race are well in to their 70's and neither looks particularly healthy or in good physical shape. Biden looks frail and ill, Trump looks like he is in trouble with facial sweating and all.. I wonder if whoever wins will actually complete their full 4 year term.


Yes. Election of 1872 the nominee of the one of the major parties died after the election but BEFORE the electoral college went ahead and voted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1872_United_States_presidential_election# So I'm not sure if that fits what you're talking about, but it still is someone dying during a presidential run.

100% - a headline can kill a race at any point.

Who knows though, still a long time from the election and ALSO a long time from the first debates (which could also change the fate of the election)

Both are old. Both probably have underlying health issues that they're probably hiding from the public b/c they know if they shared it it would kill their chances to be reelected and elected (for both respective nominees)

Mike Pence is younger (61) but we're all expecting for Joe Bidens VP pick to be MUCH younger -- probably in the realm of 35-50 so they'll most likely succeed him in 2024 if he just bows out gracefully after on term (that's if he wins at all)

We'll see.




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July 30, 2020, 05:47:22 PM
 #472

If Trump delays the election and we don't get a new president by Jan 20, what exactly would happen (aside from me not winning the bet)?

I keep seeing headlines that Pelosi would take over, but that can't be right, can it? Although it would be a great deterrent against Trump fucking with the election date if that's true. Any constitutional scholars here?

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July 30, 2020, 05:56:51 PM
 #473

I wonder what the chances of neither Trump or Biden actually being candidates are. I mean both could really pull out of the race because of one reason or another most probably health related or scandal related.

Other things could happen and Trump is already trying to delay the November 2020 election he is floating the idea around today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53597975



Both are old. Both probably have underlying health issues that they're probably hiding from the public b/c they know if they shared it it would kill their chances to be reelected and elected (for both respective nominees)

Mike Pence is younger (61) but we're all expecting for Joe Bidens VP pick to be MUCH younger -- probably in the realm of 35-50 so they'll most likely succeed him in 2024 if he just bows out gracefully after on term (that's if he wins at all)

We'll see.

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July 30, 2020, 06:10:01 PM
 #474

If Trump delays the election and we don't get a new president by Jan 20, what exactly would happen (aside from me not winning the bet)?

I keep seeing headlines that Pelosi would take over, but that can't be right, can it? Although it would be a great deterrent against Trump fucking with the election date if that's true. Any constitutional scholars here?

Pelosi wouldn't, as she is also up for reelection. Same situation for Pence.

Chuck Grassley the PPT of the Senate would be the new President as he isn't up for reelection this year. Everyone in the house is up for relection (2 year terms) so no one could even fill in as temp speaker.

Not something that I think we're truly going to have to worry about, but there is all the info!




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July 30, 2020, 07:34:08 PM
 #475

There is an arguement that an election that occurs on any date other than November 3 would be invalid without a prior act of congress. Trump even trying to delay the election would cause a major clusterfuck within the US government.

This is not to say that having a mail-in election would involve equal, or possibly worse fuckery. A mail-in election is almost guaranteed to produce results that will be questioned by anyone not on the winning side. Traditionally, absentee ballots number less than the margin of victory, so screwing them up will not affect the outcome of the election. It is not uncommon for mail to be delayed or lost, and a small percentage of votes being lost, or "lost" could easily flip the results of an election.

Mail-in voting also raises the risk of fraud due to forged ballots. The design of a ballot is going to be public because they will be distributed to the public, therefore anyone could possibly print an arbitrary number of ballots, and mail them in envelopes similar to those used to return ballots to election officials (also public).

The expiration of the enhanced UI benefits will make the lockdowns much less popular, and if lockdows are lifted, it will be more difficult to allow everyone to vote via mail.

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July 30, 2020, 09:05:03 PM
 #476

The idea that a sitting President who seems to be losing popularity and one that polls show is going to lose the election might use underhand tactics to delay an election is not far fetched. I am not saying that Trump will do that or attempt it, I am just saying that many strange things happen in politics. If as you stated there is too much to lose for the US and its citizens by postponing this election because of various protocols and red tape then it must go ahead on time.

Whether we are talking about mail voters or electronic voting machines in voting stations, there are many ways to manipulate the system and participate in vote rigging. Again, not saying that will happen in November 2020 but accusations of vote rigging are rife all over the world recently. Trump seems to be saying there is a risk of voter fraud as a result of mail voting but is that even a valid reason?


There is an arguement that an election that occurs on any date other than November 3 would be invalid without a prior act of congress. Trump even trying to delay the election would cause a major clusterfuck within the US government.

This is not to say that having a mail-in election would involve equal, or possibly worse fuckery. A mail-in election is almost guaranteed to produce results that will be questioned by anyone not on the winning side. Traditionally, absentee ballots number less than the margin of victory, so screwing them up will not affect the outcome of the election. It is not uncommon for mail to be delayed or lost, and a small percentage of votes being lost, or "lost" could easily flip the results of an election.

Mail-in voting also raises the risk of fraud due to forged ballots. The design of a ballot is going to be public because they will be distributed to the public, therefore anyone could possibly print an arbitrary number of ballots, and mail them in envelopes similar to those used to return ballots to election officials (also public).

The expiration of the enhanced UI benefits will make the lockdowns much less popular, and if lockdows are lifted, it will be more difficult to allow everyone to vote via mail.

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August 02, 2020, 06:49:42 PM
 #477

The idea that a sitting President who seems to be losing popularity and one that polls show is going to lose the election might use underhand tactics to delay an election is not far fetched. I am not saying that Trump will do that or attempt it, I am just saying that many strange things happen in politics. If as you stated there is too much to lose for the US and its citizens by postponing this election because of various protocols and red tape then it must go ahead on time.

Whether we are talking about mail voters or electronic voting machines in voting stations, there are many ways to manipulate the system and participate in vote rigging. Again, not saying that will happen in November 2020 but accusations of vote rigging are rife all over the world recently. Trump seems to be saying there is a risk of voter fraud as a result of mail voting but is that even a valid reason?


There is an arguement that an election that occurs on any date other than November 3 would be invalid without a prior act of congress. Trump even trying to delay the election would cause a major clusterfuck within the US government.

This is not to say that having a mail-in election would involve equal, or possibly worse fuckery. A mail-in election is almost guaranteed to produce results that will be questioned by anyone not on the winning side. Traditionally, absentee ballots number less than the margin of victory, so screwing them up will not affect the outcome of the election. It is not uncommon for mail to be delayed or lost, and a small percentage of votes being lost, or "lost" could easily flip the results of an election.

Mail-in voting also raises the risk of fraud due to forged ballots. The design of a ballot is going to be public because they will be distributed to the public, therefore anyone could possibly print an arbitrary number of ballots, and mail them in envelopes similar to those used to return ballots to election officials (also public).

The expiration of the enhanced UI benefits will make the lockdowns much less popular, and if lockdows are lifted, it will be more difficult to allow everyone to vote via mail.

We have to remember that vote rigging is more possible in local elections where the only determining factor to determine the outcome of a race IS the popular vote. It's harder to do in the electoral college b/c of the fact that you'd have to know beforehand where the best states are to attempt to rig. Even with just knowing in broad strokes the swing states, it's still hard to get another 30k or so votes into a state.

In a regular local election which only relies on the popular vote, it's a bit easier. But with the EC it's not as easy -- b/c a rigged vote in Cali does not change the fate of the vote in another state.

But yeah, a sitting President obviously shouldn't be able to delay when their election happens. That's a clear conflict of interest and it's good that the founding father saw that a decision like that should be left to the Congress.





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August 02, 2020, 10:35:55 PM
 #478

Mr. President Trump will win, regardless of the polls. Don't you remember last election?
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August 03, 2020, 12:46:29 AM
 #479

Mr. President Trump will win, regardless of the polls. Don't you remember last election?

By that logic every president would get re-elected, which is not the case.

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August 03, 2020, 06:39:31 AM
 #480

Those swing states seem to be the battle ground every 4 years. Sometimes they are blue and other times they are red but controversy in not that far behind when re-counts and on occasion Court injunctions are part of the equation but as difficult as it might seem I would not be surprised about vote rigging at any stage of any election process.

If a sitting President does decide to play games to prolong his stay in office then yes it can be seen as a conflict of interest. If memory serves correct the only time it happened that I can think of off the top of my head when a US election was delayed was during WW2 when Roosevelt was given permission by Congress to delay the election because of the war.


We have to remember that vote rigging is more possible in local elections where the only determining factor to determine the outcome of a race IS the popular vote. It's harder to do in the electoral college b/c of the fact that you'd have to know beforehand where the best states are to attempt to rig. Even with just knowing in broad strokes the swing states, it's still hard to get another 30k or so votes into a state.

In a regular local election which only relies on the popular vote, it's a bit easier. But with the EC it's not as easy -- b/c a rigged vote in Cali does not change the fate of the vote in another state.

But yeah, a sitting President obviously shouldn't be able to delay when their election happens. That's a clear conflict of interest and it's good that the founding father saw that a decision like that should be left to the Congress.

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