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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9804 times)
eddie13
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December 11, 2019, 05:58:06 AM
 #61

the states where the vote actually mattered
"Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%
This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's presidential election history."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan
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December 11, 2019, 05:59:17 AM
 #62

Ok you are right.. That isn't "polls"..

Is this polls?

"This chart combines the latest  opinion polls into  trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released."

About the same as right now when Trump won.. And as stated, poll votes from California and similar hopeless states don't matter..


Trump underpolls because Trump voters are 69% less likely to waste their time taking polls.. <stats made up by me


There's a weird 'fuck the polls' mentality among some Trump supporters  

Can't blame a guy for being skeptical of information sources these days, can you?

That's a model, just like it says....  They have to figure out a way to decide how much to weight each poll and calculate the tons of different possible electoral vote final outcomes.  Even if somehow it was an accurate representation an the true odds of Trump winning were 42%....would you think think to yourself " self,  those polls were wrong! Trump won and it said Hillary had a better chance!  Bad polls!"

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December 11, 2019, 06:05:27 AM
 #63



"Detailed reports from the office of Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett show optical scanners at 248 of the city’s 662 precincts, or 37 percent, tabulated more ballots than the number of voters tallied by workers in the poll books. Voting irregularities in Detroit have spurred plans for an audit by Michigan Secretary of State Ruth Johnson’s office, Elections Director Chris Thomas said Monday.

The Detroit precincts are among those that couldn’t be counted during a statewide presidential recount that began last week and ended Friday following a decision by the Michigan Supreme Court.

Democrat Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly prevailed in Detroit and Wayne County. But Republican President-elect Donald Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes or 47.5 percent to 47.3 percent.

Overall, state records show 10.6 percent of the precincts in the 22 counties that began the retabulation process couldn’t be recounted because of state law that bars recounts for unbalanced precincts or ones with broken seals.

The problems were the worst in Detroit, where discrepancies meant officials couldn’t recount votes in 392 precincts, or nearly 60 percent. And two-thirds of those precincts had too many votes."

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/12/records-many-votes-detroits-precincts/95363314/

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December 11, 2019, 06:11:33 AM
 #64

I've spent a lot of time in the D, but it was almost always well paid hours, lol..
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December 11, 2019, 06:20:49 AM
 #65



"Detailed reports from the office of Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett show optical scanners at 248 of the city’s 662 precincts, or 37 percent, tabulated more ballots than the number of voters tallied by workers in the poll books. Voting irregularities in Detroit have spurred plans for an audit by Michigan Secretary of State Ruth Johnson’s office, Elections Director Chris Thomas said Monday.

The Detroit precincts are among those that couldn’t be counted during a statewide presidential recount that began last week and ended Friday following a decision by the Michigan Supreme Court.

Democrat Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly prevailed in Detroit and Wayne County. But Republican President-elect Donald Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes or 47.5 percent to 47.3 percent.

Overall, state records show 10.6 percent of the precincts in the 22 counties that began the retabulation process couldn’t be recounted because of state law that bars recounts for unbalanced precincts or ones with broken seals.

The problems were the worst in Detroit, where discrepancies meant officials couldn’t recount votes in 392 precincts, or nearly 60 percent. And two-thirds of those precincts had too many votes."

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/12/records-many-votes-detroits-precincts/95363314/


You didn't read the whole thing did you.

Quote
Who’s responsible for errors?

Last week, Baxter told The News 87 optical scanners broke on Election Day. He said many jammed when voters tried repeatedly to stuff single ballots into scanners, which can result in erroneous vote counts if poll workers don’t adjust counters.

“The city is responsible. Janice Winfrey is responsible,” Barrow said. “This didn’t happen because of crazy, dyslexic senior citizens who are working as poll workers, like they want to portray this. That’s people who are trying to deny responsibility.”

He has asserted on social media that Winfrey cost Clinton the election in Michigan.

Others said there could be benign explanations.

Detroit’s ballot was two pages because it included dozens of candidates for the local Board of Education. The number of pages can cause machines to jam and lead them to count too many ballots, said Genesee County Clerk John Gleason.

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December 11, 2019, 06:34:49 AM
 #66

Oh right, dem deep state voter conspiracy, totally forgot about that one.  Roll Eyes Too bad they didn't have enough foresight to affect the states where the vote actually mattered and instead plowed extra votes into states that Hillary was already going to win.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

So your point is they are incompetent and the popular vote margin consisted largely of states most likely to have the most fraud in raw numbers rendering it largely a meaningless metric when accounting for fraud? I agree.

No, that's your point. Don't know how you could blow what I actually meant so out of proportion but then again I'm not surprised.


All that article is talking about is the total number of votes, not votes for one candidate or the other. The "extra votes" weren't counted in favor of Hillary (or Trump), they were just tabulated as part of the total number of votes. Neither of you actually read the article.

You didn't read the whole thing did you.

Quote
Who’s responsible for errors?
...

Beat me to it, I had stepped away from the computer for a moment.





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eddie13
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December 11, 2019, 07:08:17 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 08:04:08 AM by eddie13
 #67

nutildah or twitchy want it for 0.01 or something? Sounds like you want some..
I don't want to put a whole lot into this but I may be open to some more small fun and organization..

Who all wants pieces of this? Maybe we can make it heppening up in here.. TS wanna take some of these or bankroll?

New local thread rule.. If you ain't got 5 on it, then get off it... <effective at 10 more bets in this thread..
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December 11, 2019, 07:25:25 AM
 #68

I'm not about to go look up the "margin of error" to see exactly how much wrong each poll was against what they claim is close enough in horseshoes and hand grenades..

Okay, that's fine. Then just say that from the start instead of insinuating the polls were wrong because they weren't.

I look at charts.. One of my only skills in crypto is looking at charts, lol..
If you look at any of the charts very carefully you will see that Trump is on the bottom, look closely now..

But it wasn't magic. It was through 50k votes across 3 states.

538 projected Trump had a roughly a 30 percent chance of winning - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ So it's not magic by any means that Trump came out of that election on top.


I assure you I'm not dying on a 0.1BTC hill, lol..
I'm just having fun here talking shit..
If Trump looses, boo hoo, I was wrong.. It's not a big deal..
And I'll admit I was wrong, unlike 90% of people on the internet..

That's not what I meant by dying on a hill. I mean you are willing to look over basic math to look over the reality that Trump's election chances are not looking good and that any other Republican would be up by 10 points with this economy. This is from someone that wants him to win. Trump is banking on the fact that Democrats shoot themselves in the foot which 9 times out of 10 they will because they're clinically insane with their far left policies.


Polls are by default and inherently a model attempting to project real human sentiment. Neither polls nor models are by any means "factual" data but merely estimations. There is no such thing as a 100% factual poll, which is why scientifically speaking polls are near the bottom of the hierarchy of standards of evidence as an inherently flawed data collection methodology.

Factual data meaning the average of the polling data for the 2016 Presidential data was able to accurately predict the final election result for a confidence interval within the margin of error. I'm not saying that polls is a fact or represent the exact sentiment of a population. Of course polls are estimates.

Eddie13 just has two eyes to see and enough functional neurons to realize the dems are far too busy burying themselves to win the election in 2020. The media will do its best to try to muddy the waters to cover up for this and keep people unsure as this is always the strategy based on the reality people will often vote for the candidate they think will win as no one wants to be on the "losing" side. As a result this kabuki act will continue until concession is made even if the Democrat front runner takes a giant steaming dump in their pants on the final debate stage.

Functional neurons you say?   Roll Eyes On topic though, I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying here. The media was bias in the 2016 election and this won't change. Flashback to when Hillary Clinton asserted that Trump wouldn't accept the results of the 2016 election as then the democratic party proceeded to blame Russia for the last 3 years for the cause of Trump's win indicating that Trump is an illegitimate President. The media was complicit in this false narrative from the start and did not drop it even after the Mueller report cleared any accusations of collusion.

The actual silent majority is just waiting for voting day longingly so they can tell the lunatic postmodernist Marxists who disenfranchised them to go fuck themselves. That is the real deciding factor here that dems are blinded to in their frothing spasms directed at Trump. They are too busy pointing at him to wipe the foam from the corners of their mouths.

I have said this before, Trump is waiting for democrats to shoot themselves in the foot like they did in 2016 as Hillary Clinton ran one of the most disastrous campaigns in modern political history. This doesn't mean he isn't down right now.

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December 11, 2019, 07:48:31 AM
 #69

look closely now..
But it wasn't magic.
Trump's election chances are not looking good
the fact that Democrats shoot themselves in the foot which 9 times out of 10 they will because they're clinically insane

So how much do you want to put up for or against MAGA 2020?
So me and suchmoon can start matching these orders.. But everyone from here on out takes a 1.3% spread just because 13..
twitchy an nutildah are grandfathered @ 1:1 .01, no spread..

Place your bets..
(in jest, I can't speak for SM)
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December 11, 2019, 07:50:56 AM
 #70

nutildah or twitchy want it for 0.01 or something? Sounds like you want some..
I don't want to put a whole lot into this but I may be open to some more small fun and organization..

Who all wants pieces of this? Maybe we can make it heppening up in here.. TS wanna take some of these or bankroll?

New local thread rule.. If you ain't got 5 on it, then get off it... <effective at 10 more bets in this thread..

I don't have the confidence that suchmoon does, but I wish I did.

I also don't think local rules work like that. You probably should have just read the Detroit News article before using it as fodder for your conspiracy.  Cheesy  You also should never take a TS talking point at face value.





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December 11, 2019, 07:55:59 AM
 #71


nutildah .. want it for 0.01 or something?
I don't have the confidence that suchmoon does
10k sat?
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December 11, 2019, 07:57:00 AM
 #72

look closely now..
But it wasn't magic.
Trump's election chances are not looking good
the fact that Democrats shoot themselves in the foot which 9 times out of 10 they will because they're clinically insane

So how much do you want to put up for or against MAGA 2020?
So me and suchmoon can start matching these orders.. But everyone from here on out takes a 1.3% spread just because 13..
twitchy an nutildah are grandfathered @ 1:1 .01, no spread..

Place your bets..

It depends. If Joe Biden wins the nomination, I think he beats Trump because Joe will pick up too many moderates and independents. That being said, if anyone other than Joe Biden wins, I think Trump takes the election. Interesting predicament because right now Joe holds the plurality of the democratic base, however, the moderate wing of the democratic party is not enough to take the cake because both Sanders and Warren's base total up more than Biden's support. Of course, Warren and Sanders can't both win so one of these candidates bases are going to have to cross over when one drops out which means Joe Biden can be beat.

This is why I won't place any bets right now. It all depends on who wins the nomination.

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December 11, 2019, 08:02:17 AM
 #73

I won't place any bets right now.

No BTC?
Gyfts
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December 11, 2019, 08:06:01 AM
 #74

I won't place any bets right now.

No BTC?

Check back with me in June of 2020 once we get the nominations.

My opinion - If Joe Biden wins the nomination, I'd wager that he wins the election.

If Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren wins the nomination, Trump wins and carries the swing states for an electoral college victory.

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nutildah
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December 11, 2019, 08:08:23 AM
 #75


nutildah .. want it for 0.01 or something?
I don't have the confidence that suchmoon does
10k sat?

I have 100 TATIANACOIN tokens and 5 Storj tokens in a Counterparty wallet, how about that?  Cheesy

I'm not a hodler -- I actually use BTC for what its for, so I don't keep much around, or in the same wallet. I'm spending the BTC I do have now within the next week, so I can't do BTC.





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TwitchySeal
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December 11, 2019, 08:08:46 AM
 #76

nutildah or twitchy want it for 0.01 or something? Sounds like you want some..
I don't want to put a whole lot into this but I may be open to some more small fun and organization..

Who all wants pieces of this? Maybe we can make it heppening up in here.. TS wanna take some of these or bankroll?

New local thread rule.. If you ain't got 5 on it, then get off it... <effective at 10 more bets in this thread..

Yeah I'll do .1 with you.

I'd prefer to pre pick an arbitrator though to make things simple if something weird happens. And if it goes to arbitration loser has to pay them something reasonable.

I'm fine with just copying suchmoon/eddies terms and signing same message + arbitration.  Might need a few days to dig up an old private key though.

I'm fine with EcuaMobi, DarkStar_ , actmyname or marlboroza (just picked them of your trusted feedback)


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December 11, 2019, 08:15:28 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 08:32:06 AM by eddie13
 #77

twitchy want it for [1.]0.01 or something?

Yeah I'll do .1 with you.

I'd prefer to pre pick an [2.]arbitrator

EcuaMobi, DarkStar_ , actmyname or marlboroza

1. I said .01 ... Unless we get some more action to match up.. I don't want to go too deep right off the bat.. I might take a few more of these..

2. Public arbitration, same as the SM bet, or it isn't even worth it, though your arbitrator picks are very good..
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December 11, 2019, 08:21:49 AM
 #78

twitchy want it for [1.]0.01 or something?

Yeah I'll do .1 with you.

I'd prefer to pre pick an [2.]arbitrator

EcuaMobi, DarkStar_ , actmyname or marlboroza

1. I said .01 ... Unless we get some more action to match up.. I don't want to go too deep..

2. Public arbitration, same as the SM bet, or it isn't even worth it, though your arbitrator picks are very good..


.01 is fine.  Public arb is fine, but just picking one seems simpler.  There should be some sort of fee for going to arbitration either way though.  It keeps things simple and otherwise it's just a freeroll if things are close.

I feel like if the election is close, and the Democrat looks to have won, some weird stuff is going to happen and I don't want to have to argue to win a bet.

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December 11, 2019, 08:25:45 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 08:40:54 AM by eddie13
 #79

.01 is fine.  Public arb is fine.
 There should be some sort of fee for going to arbitration

Ok fine, best arbitrator gets 5 merits..
Sign it @ .01 and I'll sign it and lets roll.. Then you can post in this thread forever..
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First Exclusion Ever


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December 11, 2019, 08:29:04 AM
 #80

You didn't read the whole thing did you.

Quote
Who’s responsible for errors?

Last week, Baxter told The News 87 optical scanners broke on Election Day. He said many jammed when voters tried repeatedly to stuff single ballots into scanners, which can result in erroneous vote counts if poll workers don’t adjust counters.

“The city is responsible. Janice Winfrey is responsible,” Barrow said. “This didn’t happen because of crazy, dyslexic senior citizens who are working as poll workers, like they want to portray this. That’s people who are trying to deny responsibility.”

He has asserted on social media that Winfrey cost Clinton the election in Michigan.

Others said there could be benign explanations.

Detroit’s ballot was two pages because it included dozens of candidates for the local Board of Education. The number of pages can cause machines to jam and lead them to count too many ballots, said Genesee County Clerk John Gleason.


I did actually. Your quote doesn't offer compelling contrary information. What you have there is the opinion of one man and pure speculation. The part I quoted consisted of facts.

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