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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 10630 times)
squatz1
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November 09, 2020, 09:20:52 PM
 #921

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

Everybody has an opinion, but the name is Grover Cleveland.
Personally, I think that the chance of this happening is low, but non-zero, of course.

Chance = Yes. But as you said, super low.

But the only possible chance is Donald J Trump winning, the former President, not any of his sons or anything along those lines.

If anyone would like to make a new "Trump or not Trump" 1:1 bet for 2024 - you know where to find me Smiley. Same conditions as per OP, just add 4 years to dates. 0.01 BTC minimum, 1 BTC max (total budget). Escrow required unless you're in my trust list and the amount is 0.1 BTC or less. To make it more bearable let's make it any Trump and throw in Jared too.

You bet on: Donald J Trump, or one of his children (Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Tiffany), or one of his past/current spouses, or Jared Kushner.

I bet on: none of the above.

Any takers?

I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure.

Let's see how sure Smiley

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that Smiley

Only person with a real chance, like I said above, is Donald J Trump. None of his sons or Kushner is going to be able to get people to vote for them like the elder Trump did.




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suchmoon
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November 09, 2020, 11:03:06 PM
 #922

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that Smiley

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure Wink but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

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November 10, 2020, 03:37:48 AM
 #923

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that Smiley

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure Wink but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

I am a centrist.  I love Trumps wall idea 💡 not much else.

I like the idea of medical for all.

So basically every election for USA president I vote compromised as I don’t like either party much.

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

But trump will pivot.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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November 10, 2020, 05:49:57 AM
 #924

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that Smiley

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure Wink but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.


Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

This was suppose to be a Biden victory walking away but less than a percent separated Biden and Trump in AZ, GA, WI, PA(?). It was a toss up in those states. Who would have expected this election to be this close?

And besides, with how bias the media was, it's not like Trump ever had a chance to begin with. The fact that Trump increased his support among minority voters really does shed light on where the democratic party is at right now, and how wrong the media was over the last 4 years painting Trump to be this neo-nazi that wants to chain up minorities and ship them to the gulag.

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PrimeNumber7
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November 10, 2020, 06:26:02 AM
 #925

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.
Umm, excuse me. I bet that Trump will be the President after the election is over. This is an even more bold bet than eddie13 made, as it effectively hinges on legal challenges by Trump/campaign.

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nullius
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November 10, 2020, 06:53:58 AM
 #926

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election,

Zeroth of all, that is a carefully worded lie by omission:  As you damn well know, a non-supporter of Trump bet on Trump.*

And first of all, perhaps eddie was the only one willing to risk potentially giving money to you.

(* N.b., PrimeNumber7 posted when I had written most of this post, and I was looking for the perfect example of media bias directly targeted to influence the outcome.)

and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent.

Are you fucking dense?  Roll Eyes

The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.
And besides, with how bias the media was,

Just for instance, brainwashing the voting votaries to believe that the outcome was a foregone conclusion—and by the way, my artistic eye appreciates the juxtaposition of a calm, placid Biden image juxtaposed against an upset-looking Trump image:


On Election Day, they just had to pump Biden’s EC chances by another percentage point:

(Images are links.  Clicky-clicky.)
[Trump was] a relatively advantageous bet
That's really bizarre

/0 
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November 10, 2020, 01:11:12 PM
 #927

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?

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November 10, 2020, 02:24:59 PM
 #928

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?


I never checked the betting lines while the results were pouring in but the UK markets late night on November 3rd went from 37% Trump odds to a 75% Trump odds which I probably could have made a bet on. At no point in the night did the data support a 3/4 chance of a Trump win so it would have been a good bet anyone to take. Perhaps some emotional betting, perhaps some overzealous Trump supporters, who knows why the odds were that high.

As far as 2024 bets. I don't think Trump or his children will be successful at clinching the nomination (in fact it is a VERY good bet to take 1:1 against one of his children being the nominee and even I'd bet on that). Ted Cruz and Nikki Hayley will both be running in 2024 and I feel strongly about one of them winning. But like I said, I would never put my money where my mouth is because politics is way too unpredictable. In 2016, I would have bet my kidney that Trump would not have gotten the nomination, and we see how that turned out. I would have bet my other kidney that he wouldn't win the general. And we see how that turned out. Also one of these two (Cruz or Hayley) could get hit by a bus in the next 4 years and I'd be out of my sat. Unless, of course, there was a clause in the bet about getting ran over by a bus  Roll Eyes


I also am not even sure if it's a good idea for any gambler to bet that Biden would even run in 2024. I think Kamala Harris probably would take over by then, and in that case I think odds favor Republicans to beat Kamala Harris instead of Biden with how unlikeable she is.

I wonder if Pence runs? Hmm. A Pence vs Harris Presidential race? Woah.


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November 10, 2020, 03:14:01 PM
Last edit: November 10, 2020, 03:27:27 PM by B1tUnl0ck3r
 #929

When the people of the world will get that covid was intentionally released to frame china, steal the election from trump, assure massive bail outs and foster the forced vaccination agendas...the current regime change / color revolution in the usa will be thwarted !

THE LAST 4 YEARS OF TRUMP, begin in January 2021 and biden and his syndicate will judged ala nuremberg by a court of chinese, russian and american patriots, then be executed for crime against the World !

MAGA ALL THE WAY !

When the people of the world will get that covid was intentionally released to frame china, steal the election from trump, assure massive bail outs and foster the forced vaccination agendas...they will forget, like 911, wmds in irak, uss liberty or pedogate.
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November 10, 2020, 03:24:00 PM
 #930

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?
I don't like those odds, he has a life expectancy of 10 years, so there's a reasonable chance he won't even make it that long.

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November 12, 2020, 11:02:24 PM
 #931

VOTER FRAUD IN PENNSYLVANIA!!!!#@!#@$

[...] a man in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, was arrested after allegedly asking for an absentee ballot for his dead mother so he could vote for President Donald Trump.

The 67-year-old man was apprehended last month, WTAJ reported on Oct. 21. Election officials said the example demonstrated how the system worked in spotting and stopping alleged fraud.

I look forward to Dan Patrick weaseling out of paying the reward.

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November 13, 2020, 01:47:16 AM
 #932

JOINT STATEMENT FROM ELECTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT COORDINATING COUNCIL & THE ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR COORDINATING EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES


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November 14, 2020, 11:01:13 PM
Last edit: November 14, 2020, 11:28:47 PM by eddie13
 #933

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?
I got some of my old stuff out and tested ready to go and just don't want to worry about being able to get around to it anymore.. And let me know what extra to put on the TX to cover miner fees for distribution (twitchy/nutildah) or return (if I win)..

Sign your staked identity so I know it's you and give me an escrow receiving address and I'll pop it over there..

Edit: Actually it's only going to work if the old chrome app still works, because it seems I have a shit show on my hands with old firmware and this new ledger live BS.. 
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November 14, 2020, 11:06:00 PM
 #934

VOTER FRAUD IN PENNSYLVANIA!!!!#@!#@$

[...] a man in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, was arrested after allegedly asking for an absentee ballot for his dead mother so he could vote for President Donald Trump.

The 67-year-old man was apprehended last month, WTAJ reported on Oct. 21. Election officials said the example demonstrated how the system worked in spotting and stopping alleged fraud.

I look forward to Dan Patrick weaseling out of paying the reward.

The irony is that Trump claims there's voter fraud in favor of Biden, while this guy did fraud to vote for Trump...

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nullius
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November 14, 2020, 11:19:12 PM
 #935

[...] a man in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, was arrested after allegedly asking for an absentee ballot for his dead mother so he could vote for President Donald Trump.

The irony is that Trump claims there's voter fraud in favor of Biden, while this guy did fraud to vote for Trump...

Is there even an allegation (let alone evidence) that such fraud was organized, systematic, and/or widespread on the Trump side?  Or is it simply a matter of some idiot deciding to try to cheat, as idiots do every day?

#justsaying

/0 
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“Qui mori didicit, servire dedidicit.”
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November 15, 2020, 12:01:10 AM
 #936

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?

Sure thing.

Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: eddie13, read your PMs. This is suchmoon 2020-11-14.
Signature: G2a6tJRIVK99kop3wzeG39QExVg1iMmrzUxvnn7Y7Qj+VaQd2L4cWS6A4CKrArArVehg2Cb5sF9gW4iRtcWgmTM=

Address staked here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.msg40261816#msg40261816

Send funds to the address signed in the OP: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb

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November 15, 2020, 07:26:50 AM
 #937

Congrats Suchmoon for the win Cheesy it was an election which was really unpredictable because incumbent presidents rarely loses. Times are extraordinary and although my guts said Biden will win, didn't listen to it because of 2016 flashbacks Tongue

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

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November 15, 2020, 10:17:04 AM
 #938


Congrats Suchmoon for the win Cheesy

Roll Eyes

Quote from: Nietzsche
Everyone being allowed to learn to read, ruineth in the long run not only writing but also thinking.


I have considered simply paying up on my own bet.  It is a charity bet; and I don’t like having this hang on unsettled.  But then, I still think that Trump may win; and I have even considered offering a new bet similar to PrimeNumber7’s.  If the wager is to have any meaning (or fun, which is the only point of this for me), it must be settled correctly on the outcome (and n.b. that in case of dispute, I did specify upfront a wait-and-see resolution).

I suppose that I will just need to wait this out.  By the time the Americans get their election in order, 0.01 BTC will be worth enough to buy a small island...

/0 
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November 15, 2020, 12:57:08 PM
 #939

First of all, congratulations for Suchmoon. But then I have a lot of respect for eddie13 as well. He went for a bet in favor of Trump, when most of the election sites gave him less than a 1 in 10 chance. And despite all this, Trump came very close to a win. 

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

LOL.. this is very unlikely. Even before the elections, there were rumors that Trump would say goodbye to the United States, if he loses the election. But still, I expect him to campaign for the Georgia senate election runoffs, as these two seats are very crucial for the GOP. If they win both the seats, then they will be having 52-48 advantage over Democrats. As per the current leads, Democrat majority has been decimated in the senate. Earlier the Democrats had a 232-197 advantage and this time it will be around 220-215. GOP gained a number of suburban seats which they lost in 2018, thanks to the Democrats fielding ultra-leftist and hyperliberal candidates.



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[15.00000000 BTC]


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November 15, 2020, 03:04:21 PM
 #940

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

I'd love to but no one seems to want to bet on Trump, go figure... Smiley

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208356.msg55556354#msg55556354

when most of the election sites gave him less than a 1 in 10 chance.

No, the odds were much closer than that back then and may have even been to Trump's favor at some point during the year since. Keep in mind that at the time of the bet we didn't even know who the Democratic nominee was going to be. Some bookies were quoting odds for Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.

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