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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9804 times)
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September 28, 2020, 12:15:44 PM
 #721

Now that is a new twist to the whole election drama. I think any testing would have to be mutually agreed to go ahead and I cannot see consensus on it because if it will be drug today it might be about something else tomorrow.

They should stick to the ethics surrounding the elections and simply get on with trying their best to win the electorate rather than attempt to show the misgivings, shortcomings or failures of their opponent.


Trump double downs on request for drug testing prior to debate: 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1310211120922230784

What are the odds we see candidates test positive for cocaine?  Roll Eyes

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September 28, 2020, 03:20:45 PM
 #722

Now that is a new twist to the whole election drama. I think any testing would have to be mutually agreed to go ahead and I cannot see consensus on it because if it will be drug today it might be about something else tomorrow.

They should stick to the ethics surrounding the elections and simply get on with trying their best to win the electorate rather than attempt to show the misgivings, shortcomings or failures of their opponent.


Trump double downs on request for drug testing prior to debate: 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1310211120922230784

What are the odds we see candidates test positive for cocaine?  Roll Eyes

I mean if Biden is on some sort of drugs, I think it'd be highly possible that Trump is taking adderals and such to stay focused. That (and Cocaine) are pretty common among the ultra wealthy so they have some sort of edge. I know there were some allegations that Trump was taking them cause he passed the 'sniff test' according to some journalists.

Odds? 0. Neither is going to be tested.

This is literally just the Roger Stone campaign advising way of throwing out the craziest stories to the media and hoping that some of it ends up sticking. Crazily enough it has worked for sometime.




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September 30, 2020, 03:36:51 AM
 #723

This is false. If Trump wins, investments in your 401k are likely to continue to increase, as will your wages, and standard of living. If Biden wins, the economy will go to the shitter, real wages will decline, as will investments in your 401k. If you have children, their livelihoods over their lifetimes will decline.

If Trump wins, you will profit, and if Biden wins, you will lose a lot of money, and freedoms.
Is there any statistical data or projection to back up these claims? Do you a URL?

How and why does Biden winning mean the economy will go downhill and wages will decline or the livelihood of children will decline over their lifetime?

How and why does Biden winning mean US citizens lose money and freedoms?

Look at the implied volatility on Put options (which are profitable if prices declines) on the S&P 500, and other major indecies after the election. Implied volatility goes way up for Put options contracts that expire after the election ends.

Bernie Sanders said Biden will be the most progressive Presidenct since FDR. However FDR depressed the economy in the 1930's:
<>
By 1936 the top U.S. personal income-tax rate had been raised to 79%, with a 70% maximum estate tax. The top federal corporate tax rate, however, was only 15%. In response, wealthy Americans accumulated profits inside corporations that owned their residences and other assets
<>
Suddenly, at Roosevelt’s urging, Congress tore up all this careful and legal tax-avoidance planning with the Revenue Act of 1937. Corporate money was subject to immediate distribution and taxed at high individual rates. In effect, these were accumulated-wealth taxes, imposed at precisely the wrong time.
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The economic pain was swift and severe. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed to 114 on Nov. 24, 1937, from 190 on Aug. 14, a 40% decline. Gross domestic product fell by more than 5% between 1937 and 1938. Unemployment, roughly 12% in May 1937, climbed to 20.7% in April 1939. Industrial production tumbled 33% from the spring of 1937 to May 1938 and didn’t return to its 1937 peak until late 1939.

Economic pain today means less economic opportunities for our Children tomorrow. Also, Trump is arguing that school choice is a civil right, while Biden has said he department of education will be pro-teacher's union (not pro-student). This means, teachers will not be held accountable for their performance, and students will not be able to go to Charter schools when their public schools are failing, unless their parents have a lot of resources.

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September 30, 2020, 06:34:30 AM
Last edit: September 30, 2020, 06:46:00 AM by TwitchySeal
 #724

Look at the implied volatility on Put options (which are profitable if prices declines) on the S&P 500, and other major indecies after the election. Implied volatility goes way up for Put options contracts that expire after the election ends.

The fear of a disputed election is the biggest factor in the spiking IV for November - although it is true that even without Trump refusing to agree to a peaceful transfer of power if he were to lose - the short term markets would likely look better with a Trump victory.  But that's certainly not proof of long term anything.

The op-eds are interesting, but you aren't really proving anything either.  You would need a crystal ball or some other thing that doesn't exist to back up your claims.

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September 30, 2020, 09:52:20 PM
 #725

Look at the implied volatility on Put options (which are profitable if prices declines) on the S&P 500, and other major indecies after the election. Implied volatility goes way up for Put options contracts that expire after the election ends.

The fear of a disputed election is the biggest factor in the spiking IV for November - although it is true that even without Trump refusing to agree to a peaceful transfer of power if he were to lose - the short term markets would likely look better with a Trump victory.  But that's certainly not proof of long term anything.

The op-eds are interesting, but you aren't really proving anything either.  You would need a crystal ball or some other thing that doesn't exist to back up your claims.

Short term (If Biden wins) - Yeah the market is going to be a bit nervous. Uncertainty scares markets, so an incumbent President losing for the first time since 1992(?) is going to totally freak them out a bit. I think a lot of this also relies on if the DNC takes the Senate as well, if they do short term markets are going to plummet as they're going to expect the Trump tax cuts to be reversed and Corp tax rate to go up.

Long term (if Biden wins) - Market has always gone up in the long term, so over a 8-10 year period the market will continue on its upward trend. Biden is still a moderate, we shouldn't forget that. It's not like Bernie is the frontunner anymore, Biden is literally just a moderate Dem.

But like always, WE'LL SEE.




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October 02, 2020, 05:24:22 AM
 #726

Here's another reason why such a bet is a random operation.


Democrat insider: Anti-Trump postal workers in GOP neighborhoods throw mail-in ballots in the garbage



A Democrat operative says the United States Postal Service (USPS) workers who despise President Trump will sometimes help election fraudsters by throwing in the garbage mail-in ballots from Republican-heavy neighborhoods.

Last month, as Breitbart News highlighted, a Democrat operative told the New York Post's Jon Levine a number of stories in which insiders like him lead teams of fraudsters to commit election fraud by paying homeless voters off, taking advantage of the elderly, posing as registered voters, and printing up fake ballots.

One notable tactic, the Democrat operative said, is how insiders will use USPS workers to help sway election results, Levine reported:

"You have a postman who is a rabid anti-Trump guy and he's working in Bedminster or some Republican stronghold … He can take those ballots, and knowing 95% are going to a Republican, he can just throw those in the garbage."

In some cases, mail carriers were members of his "work crew," and would sift ballots from the mail and hand them over to the operative.


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October 02, 2020, 08:48:52 AM
 #727

You are spot on with the odds. Neither will be tested but it would not surprise me if both Biden and Trump are taking some sort of drugs, the same goes for Pence and Harris.

If they were on some sort of drugs thinking they might have some sort of edge over the other in public debates, I wonder what would happen those drugs were replaced with a placebo.


I mean if Biden is on some sort of drugs, I think it'd be highly possible that Trump is taking adderals and such to stay focused. That (and Cocaine) are pretty common among the ultra wealthy so they have some sort of edge. I know there were some allegations that Trump was taking them cause he passed the 'sniff test' according to some journalists.

Odds? 0. Neither is going to be tested.

This is literally just the Roger Stone campaign advising way of throwing out the craziest stories to the media and hoping that some of it ends up sticking. Crazily enough it has worked for sometime.

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October 03, 2020, 03:39:45 PM
 #728

You are spot on with the odds. Neither will be tested but it would not surprise me if both Biden and Trump are taking some sort of drugs, the same goes for Pence and Harris.

If they were on some sort of drugs thinking they might have some sort of edge over the other in public debates, I wonder what would happen those drugs were replaced with a placebo.


I mean if Biden is on some sort of drugs, I think it'd be highly possible that Trump is taking adderals and such to stay focused. That (and Cocaine) are pretty common among the ultra wealthy so they have some sort of edge. I know there were some allegations that Trump was taking them cause he passed the 'sniff test' according to some journalists.

Odds? 0. Neither is going to be tested.

This is literally just the Roger Stone campaign advising way of throwing out the craziest stories to the media and hoping that some of it ends up sticking. Crazily enough it has worked for sometime.

Yeah I don't really think the risk to reward ratio is there for feeding drugs to your candidate. What if they have some sort of side effect with it while they're on stage?

I've always thought the same about a secret earpiece. Imagine having one of those in your ear and it starts to malfunction and ring constantly in your ear for no reason. That'd literally make no fucking sense, you'd be risking an average debate performance with a fucking massive political scandal.

But back onto the thread here. I do think that the speed with which Trump recovers from COVID is going to change the poll numbers. If it's fast, he can point to the fact that it's just like the FLU and blah blah blah. If it's not, well he can't really sweep this under the rug anymore. Hard to hide this stuff when you're being sent to the hospital.




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October 03, 2020, 05:47:52 PM
 #729

But back onto the thread here. I do think that the speed with which Trump recovers from COVID is going to change the poll numbers. If it's fast, he can point to the fact that it's just like the FLU and blah blah blah. If it's not, well he can't really sweep this under the rug anymore. Hard to hide this stuff when you're being sent to the hospital.

he got early access to experimental drugs and has 7 or 8 MDs (offhand count i did when his MD gave the briefing an hour ago or so) looking after him. so hes got the entire resources of the usa looking after him. and he is still in the hospital

more importantly, hes not tweeting 100 times a day or whatever his regular rate is or doing phone meetings. even i can do that with a nasty flu and im ancient and lazy af. he must be pretty down.

even trump could have a problem spinning this as a minor thing. but since he is such a bigly healthy strongly geniusly person maybe he will.
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October 07, 2020, 09:17:49 AM
 #730

Polls are widening in favor of Biden, almost time for Russia to drop the Biden version of 'her emails'.  I'm guessing Hunter will be involved - although, the topic backfired on him in the debate and got him impeached, so they might take a different route.

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October 07, 2020, 06:34:44 PM
 #731

Can you imagine if there were secret earpieces and if a malfunction really did happen - live on national television to a broadcast of millions only to then be shared multi-millions of times on social media  Grin

Well, Trump has recovered from COVID-19 and is back in the White House. Has that affected the way potential voters view him?

Yeah I don't really think the risk to reward ratio is there for feeding drugs to your candidate. What if they have some sort of side effect with it while they're on stage?

I've always thought the same about a secret earpiece. Imagine having one of those in your ear and it starts to malfunction and ring constantly in your ear for no reason. That'd literally make no fucking sense, you'd be risking an average debate performance with a fucking massive political scandal.

But back onto the thread here. I do think that the speed with which Trump recovers from COVID is going to change the poll numbers. If it's fast, he can point to the fact that it's just like the FLU and blah blah blah. If it's not, well he can't really sweep this under the rug anymore. Hard to hide this stuff when you're being sent to the hospital.

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October 08, 2020, 02:19:22 AM
 #732

Can you imagine if there were secret earpieces and if a malfunction really did happen - live on national television to a broadcast of millions only to then be shared multi-millions of times on social media  Grin

Well, Trump has recovered from COVID-19 and is back in the White House. Has that affected the way potential voters view him?

Yeah I don't really think the risk to reward ratio is there for feeding drugs to your candidate. What if they have some sort of side effect with it while they're on stage?

I've always thought the same about a secret earpiece. Imagine having one of those in your ear and it starts to malfunction and ring constantly in your ear for no reason. That'd literally make no fucking sense, you'd be risking an average debate performance with a fucking massive political scandal.

But back onto the thread here. I do think that the speed with which Trump recovers from COVID is going to change the poll numbers. If it's fast, he can point to the fact that it's just like the FLU and blah blah blah. If it's not, well he can't really sweep this under the rug anymore. Hard to hide this stuff when you're being sent to the hospital.

Yeah that'd be a MAJOR problem. Some sort of ringing in your ear would totally nuke you and cause a major problem. Plus like, if it was so noticeable to others that something was happening YOU POTENTIALLY could  reveal the fact that you have an earpiece in which is totally going to end your campaign right in its tracks.

But in regards to the whole Trump COVID thing, I do think that is going to be rough on the campaign. Not a good look when you're currently combating a bad debate performance. There isn't that much time for Trump to turn this around as there is only like, 20 something days left until the election. There will probably be another October surprise.

I'll have to say though, I am FUCKING TIRED of this circus.




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October 08, 2020, 07:50:09 AM
 #733

Trump saying badly wants to stay in power via a re-election just as any incumbent would but saying that getting COVID-19 was a blessing from God is a direct message to his evangelical supporters. You cannot blame him for trying to capitalise on his recovery in the run-up to the election next month but he really is beginning to make even more absurd comments than before.


Yeah that'd be a MAJOR problem. Some sort of ringing in your ear would totally nuke you and cause a major problem. Plus like, if it was so noticeable to others that something was happening YOU POTENTIALLY could  reveal the fact that you have an earpiece in which is totally going to end your campaign right in its tracks.

But in regards to the whole Trump COVID thing, I do think that is going to be rough on the campaign. Not a good look when you're currently combating a bad debate performance. There isn't that much time for Trump to turn this around as there is only like, 20 something days left until the election. There will probably be another October surprise.

I'll have to say though, I am FUCKING TIRED of this circus.

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October 08, 2020, 08:02:12 PM
 #734

LOL even McConnell is throwing Trump under the bus... I wonder if Trump could withdraw the SC nomination if his feelings get hurt.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/520205-mcconnell-says-he-hasnt-visited-white-house-in-two-months-due-to-coronavirus

Quote
Speaking in Kentucky, McConnell said that while he talks to President Trump frequently, he hasn't been to the White House in person since Aug. 6.

"Because my impression was their approach to how to handle this was different from mine and what I insisted we do in the Senate, which was to wear a mask and practice social distancing," McConnell told reporters.

Of course it's a pot-kettle situation - three GOP senators got COVID-19 recently.

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October 09, 2020, 04:49:29 PM
 #735

It seems that I may have just scored a new job that will have me constantly flying places across the country, for quite long/unknown periods of stay.. I had my 3rd interview with them yesterday and the regional manager said he is going to write up my formal job offer for me to either accept or decline.. If the numbers in the formal offer are the same or similar to what we have discussed then I will be accepting the offer and going on a hell of an adventure for pretty damn good money Wink

So I am going to have to take my cold storage access with me incase the snowballs chance in hell I lose these bets, or if I get caught with my pants down and don’t have access to my coins for a little while, don’t freak out immediately because I WILL pay up on it..
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October 09, 2020, 07:18:08 PM
 #736

So I am going to have to take my cold storage access with me incase the snowballs chance in hell I lose these bets, or if I get caught with my pants down and don’t have access to my coins for a little while, don’t freak out immediately because I WILL pay up on it..

NP. Best of luck with the new job.

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October 09, 2020, 11:14:24 PM
 #737

Was skimming the thread for the 1st time. Never really read it before.
Was the funding supposed to stay in the addresses posted in the 1st page. eddie13 moved his, didn't see in mentioned anywhere in the 37 pages but I might have missed it.
Guess for some reason I was expecting a 3rd party escrow.

Either way, interesting to see how this plays out in the next few weeks.

-Dave

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October 09, 2020, 11:31:50 PM
 #738

Was skimming the thread for the 1st time. Never really read it before.
Was the funding supposed to stay in the addresses posted in the 1st page. eddie13 moved his, didn't see in mentioned anywhere in the 37 pages but I might have missed it.
Guess for some reason I was expecting a 3rd party escrow.

Neither one of us wanted escrow so what's the point. And I didn't expect that we both would keep the funds untouched, I just left mine there so that I don't spend it all on a Lambo.

If eddie13 decides to scam me for 0.1 BTC I'll take the worst insults from Trump's tweets and put them in a red trust rating Grin

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October 09, 2020, 11:40:12 PM
 #739

Was skimming the thread for the 1st time. Never really read it before.
Was the funding supposed to stay in the addresses posted in the 1st page. eddie13 moved his, didn't see in mentioned anywhere in the 37 pages but I might have missed it.
Guess for some reason I was expecting a 3rd party escrow.

Neither one of us wanted escrow so what's the point. And I didn't expect that we both would keep the funds untouched, I just left mine there so that I don't spend it all on a Lambo.

If eddie13 decides to scam me for 0.1 BTC I'll take the worst insults from Trump's tweets and put them in a red trust rating Grin

Don't think either one of you were going to run out over .1, just noticed it and thought about the lack of escrow in general.

-Dave

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October 09, 2020, 11:59:18 PM
Merited by Quickseller (5)
 #740

New Harris Poll. Biden 50, Trump 45.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/520381-what-americas-thinking-october-9-2020

Maybe an outlier poll? Or is Trump not as down as people think? Perhaps both? This is wildly different from CNN's poll that had Biden up like 14 points so maybe it's not all death and gloom on the Trump campaign.

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