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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9793 times)
eddie13
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October 26, 2020, 09:03:22 PM
 #801

The message you signed doesn't include the part that you were to lend me 0.01 BTC at the time of the bet, which you never sent... Please go back and re-read the conversation.

What I said about it basically being a loan is that accepting a bet requires the same level of trust and certainty of identity as giving a loan..
(also nothing to do with signing proof of funds like some guy commented on accusing me of moving them)

The conversation was about signing a staked address for identity verification purposes, signing a contract, which somehow seemed to confuse 100% of biden anti-trump betters thus far...
The purpose is to eliminate the "I was hacked when my account agreed to that" excuse..

Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that the bet is on, as apparently it did to you all these months.

Good enough I guess..
Code:
OK I agree.. [quote author=nutildah link=topic=5208356.msg55459030#msg55459030 date=1603740694] Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that [u]the bet is on[/u], as apparently it did to you all these months.[/quote]
H4Es74/VDqCuDxS9PJYMZMqFOkQs6mxp2J2QwFFUykTnSWfll7Isx3EVIdCQmYFyn9XUpzu8sZQ3WgPDLJ27DoA=


No more BS, you guys are fucked now when trump wins and that`s that..
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October 26, 2020, 09:48:59 PM
 #802

I think a two party system is always going to face polarization within a democracy and two parties is simply not enough to express the wide range of views that are necessary to run a country effectively. It ends up with a constant tug of war and in the current climate people are too willing to get entrenched in a position without the ability to compromise. Sadly I think the current batch of politicians are too self serving and not willing to stand up for the guiding principles of their countries. I also don't understand why it is a race between two 75 year olds, as if age is meant to bring wisdom - my personal experience has been exactly the opposite. I don't wish to sound ageist - but people do not peak in their 70's and shouldn't be running the most powerful country in the world, that's for sure.
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October 26, 2020, 09:59:28 PM
 #803

The good part about Trump is, he will do what is good and right for the people.

The bad part about Trump is, he will "legalize" freedom for Presidents so that the guy/gal after Trump will be free to do a whole lot more than if Trump had never been around. And nobody knows if it will be bad or good.


Of course, if Biden gets in, the bad will happen now rather than the worse bad later.

Cool

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nullius
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October 26, 2020, 09:59:33 PM
Last edit: October 26, 2020, 10:22:16 PM by nullius
 #804

The conversation was about signing a staked address for identity verification purposes, signing a contract, which somehow seemed to confuse 100% of biden anti-trump betters thus far...
The purpose is to eliminate the "I was hacked when my account agreed to that" excuse..

Guess who is going to chime in here.

Bitcoin is cypherpunk crypto-money.  Do people want to use crypto, or just talk about it while masturbating over their Coinbase accounts, waiting for Number To Go Up?

All financial agreements for nontrivial (non-“dust”) amounts conducted on the forum should always require signed statements!

Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that the bet is on, as apparently it did to you all these months.

Colour me unsurprised at nutildah’s ignorance about the proper use of practical cryptography. Roll Eyes

No more BS,

Use crypto.  No excuses.

Who knows if he will pay up if Trump wins, considering he apparently has forgotten that he placed his bet. SM probably will.


This is probably not the best time to be getting into an even money bet for Trump to win. The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

Hmmm.  What were the odds called by the mass-media (and the betting markets) that Hillary would win, in late October of 2016?

If I wanted to bet, I would be a contrarian, and bet on Trump.  For the reason that you state, I would probably want better than even odds.

I say this even though I despise Trump much more than the TDS crowd does.  (For totally different reasons.)



October 26, 2020, 09:45:02 PM

Summary - eddie13

Bitcoin address:1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
To be updated when I find his stake...
Signed message today..

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

This is eddie13 on 8/19/2018 updating my Bitcointalk staked address

IIgvyxWXnHtM6veHdfdP+zvxb5mVC6XsGa/K2fieDj6yX/cHBVL73Z14KQnRu8ydIUugmK3AKtvee9FelXl41KU=
The question hereby is to establish his address (significantly) prior to today’s date; in the circumstance, I don’t feel a need to reach back further.  Considerable research effort is sometimes required...  The forum should have a better way to handle these things.

Code:
OK I agree.. [quote author=nutildah link=topic=5208356.msg55459030#msg55459030 date=1603740694] Anyway, this last sentence (bolded) will serve as confirmation for me that [u]the bet is on[/u], as apparently it did to you all these months.[/quote]
H4Es74/VDqCuDxS9PJYMZMqFOkQs6mxp2J2QwFFUykTnSWfll7Isx3EVIdCQmYFyn9XUpzu8sZQ3WgPDLJ27DoA=


No more BS, you guys are fucked now when trump wins and that`s that..

Quoted for reference.  I am against saying that I verified it; people should do that for themselves!  No “somebody verified it”, and no Gavin-style “I saw this verified by somebody”.

/0 
  😼
“Qui mori didicit, servire dedidicit.”
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October 26, 2020, 10:09:50 PM
 #805

^^^ All you remind me of is somebody who isn't free.


Freedom Speech Easy Rider

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc11mJGre10



Cool

BUDESONIDE essentially cures Covid in one day to one week >>> https://budesonideworks.com/.
Hydroxychloroquine is being used against Covid with great success >>> https://altcensored.com/watch?v=otRN0X6F81c.
Masks are stupid. Watch the first 5 minutes >>> https://www.bitchute.com/video/rlWESmrijl8Q/.
Don't be afraid to donate Bitcoin. Thank you. >>> 1JDJotyxZLFF8akGCxHeqMkD4YrrTmEAwz
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October 26, 2020, 10:31:52 PM
 #806

Hmmm.  What were the odds called by the mass-media (and the betting markets) that Hillary would win, in late October of 2016?

For someone that is usually so pragmatic I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.  There were plenty of pundits saying Trump was dead in the water, but that didn't reflect the actual numbers and really anyone that says they know for certain what the outcome will be before election day is either a liar or a fool and should be ignored.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

The final national polls on average had Clinton with a 3.2 point lead and she ended up receiving 2.1% more votes.


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October 26, 2020, 10:52:33 PM
 #807

Hmmm.  What were the odds called by the mass-media (and the betting markets) that Hillary would win, in late October of 2016?

For someone that is usually so pragmatic I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.  There were plenty of pundits saying Trump was dead in the water, but that didn't reflect the actual numbers and really anyone that says they know for certain what the outcome will be before election day is either a liar or a fool and should be ignored.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

The final national polls on average had Clinton with a 3.2 point lead and she ended up receiving 2.1% more votes.



National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

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nutildah
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October 26, 2020, 11:03:33 PM
 #808

No more BS, you guys are fucked now when trump wins and that`s that..

Yep. Glad we could straighten things out.

I just got back from a memorial service at a veteran's cemetery; probably one of the nicest in the nation. It was for a Korean War vet: he was an old guy that lived a full life, and it was a powerful experience. It actually made me feel proud to be an American for the first time in a while. Basically, I hope that regardless of who gets elected, the division in our country will die down at least a little bit.


I'm quite tired of your pointless pettiness and am sticking you on ignore. Just thought I'd let you know in case you wonder why I'm no longer responding to you. You clearly have an axe to grind with the entire world (except for Lauda, RIP) and that's neither my fault nor problem.

Some goes for PrimeNumber7/Quickseller. Not interested anymore.

Get a life, because life is short, and it will be the only one you'll have.





.
.




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suchmoon
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October 26, 2020, 11:15:44 PM
 #809

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

Due to huge numbers of early voting it's getting increasingly unlikely with every day. For example if FBI announced an investigation into whatever Fox News is accusing Biden of, it would be much less likely to have the same kind of impact like Hillary's e-mails did because so many have already voted.

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October 26, 2020, 11:29:12 PM
 #810

For someone that is usually so pragmatic

This is new.  Usually, I am accused of being an idealistic dreamer. ;-)

...I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.

I’m not sure why you are arguing about the media polls with me, when your own statement was that Trump was an underdog in the betting markets.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

A part of my point was that if PN7’s numbers are correct (probably—haven’t checked—don’t really care), Trump is less of an underdog now than he was in 2016.  And—guess who became U.S. president in 2016.

This is probably not the best time to be getting into an even money bet for Trump to win. The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

A deeper point is that this is a plebiscite on Trump:

Quote from: 2020 United States Presidential Ballot (translated from pretenses, to the political reality of voters’ thought processes)
How do you feel about Trump?

  • I LOVE TRUMP!!! 🤩
  • I HATE TRUMP!!! 😡

That is not very good for Biden, in and of itself.

Trump has fans.  A large number of Americans perceive him as an awe-inspiring hero.  I think that that’s ridiculous; but it is an objective fact that large numbers of people see him that way.

Trump has haters.  A large number of Americans perceive him as the devil.  I think that that’s also ridiculous; but...

Does anybody perceive Biden as a hero?  I mean, seriously.  LOL.

Does anybody perceive Biden, personally, as the devil?  Of course, there are many Americans who see the Democratic Party as the devil.  (Same as for the Republican Party.)  But the Democratic Party is not Biden.  A political party does not move people as personality does—not in either direction.

Objectively, the candidates are not so different.  The followers of Pepsi-Lenin (D) scream that Coke-Kerensky (R) is a “right-wing extremist”, and the followers of Coke-Kerensky (R) scream that Pepsi-Lenin (D) has betrayed the revolution.  The practical difference between them is negligible.  But that is not how votaries voters perceive it; and the above sums up how most Americans are evaluating their choice for this vote.

biden anti-trump betters

Well said.

All of this is consistent with my point:  Many Americans were disillusioned—literally, they stopped seeing the illusion of importance in the vote.  Trump got them re-engaged with the system.  Good job!


/0 
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October 27, 2020, 03:36:45 AM
 #811

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

Due to huge numbers of early voting it's getting increasingly unlikely with every day. For example if FBI announced an investigation into whatever Fox News is accusing Biden of, it would be much less likely to have the same kind of impact like Hillary's e-mails did because so many have already voted.


You are probably right, but I still give Trump about a 15% chance of victory. Of course, a 15% chance in politics pretty much means this election is a wrap.

I still think we'll see a couple states be a bit closer than what the polls are showing. But since we're a week out, and the polls have indicated the gap is not closing, my final prediction is that Biden wins the electoral college.

Can't win them all, oh well. 

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October 27, 2020, 09:06:26 PM
 #812

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

Quote from: Bitcoin Forum
A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

Quote
I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

Loading...

This was in response to:

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

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October 27, 2020, 09:21:53 PM
 #813

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

Quote from: Bitcoin Forum
A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

What censorship?  Before I deleted your post, I appended it to the end of mine with an appropriate note:



I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

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Please read the local rules before posting.

Local Rules:  Effective immediately, suchmoon is categorically banned from all of my self-moderated threads (unless I make an accusation against her, in which she will be accorded a fair right of reply).  The post to which I replied has the same subject matter, i.e. offering a wager to theymos.  It has not been deleted; therefore, I draw the obvious inference.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

Per its OP, that whole thread only got started because you deleted my reply to eddie13’s offer to theymos.  You didn’t delete that—nor did you delete some other talk about wagering.  The only reasonable explanation is that you deleted my post out of petty personal dislike for its author.

And now you whine because I have stated upfront that you are categorically banned from my self-mod threads*?  Roll Eyes

* Except if I were to bring an accusation against you; per what I stated, the accused shall always have a fair right of reply in my self-moderated threads.

<snip>

This was in response to:

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

Among other things, hypocrisy is untrustworthy.

/0 
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October 27, 2020, 09:28:57 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2020, 10:04:46 PM by nutildah
 #814

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

Quote from: Bitcoin Forum
A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

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Quote
I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

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This was in response to:

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

That is very funny -- not often do you see $140 jokes being made around here.

I don't have the confidence you do that Trump has already lost. Too shattered since last time. If we learned anything from 2016, its that nobody really knows what the fuck is going on.





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October 27, 2020, 09:58:02 PM
Merited by nullius (1)
 #815

ACLU?
Yuck..
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October 27, 2020, 10:07:53 PM
 #816

ACLU?
Yuck..

Well, it's actually your bet with theymos, I'm just an intruder. If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it, just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.

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October 27, 2020, 10:10:54 PM
 #817

ACLU?
Yuck..

theymos had suggested the NCLA to me.  I think that was the target of suchmoon’s misguided grandstanding.

Upon a brief review of the NCLA’s website, three things jumped out at me:

  • The NCLA’s endorsement of Amy Coney Barrett’s record of quashing administrative law tyranny.
  • The NCLA’s defence of Bitcoiners against privacy violations by the IRS.
  • Gun rights!

Please let me know what you think.


just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

Quoted for the next time somebody complains about your own self-mod actions.  I notice that you consistently ban quite a list of users from your threads.  My name was not on the list for the thread where I posted, or any previous list of yours that I have seen.  You were banned by name in the OP’s local rules of the thread where you posted.  Stop whining like such a lunatic.

/0 
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October 27, 2020, 10:35:21 PM
 #818

If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..
Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..
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October 27, 2020, 10:40:08 PM
 #819

If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it

The NRA is always looking for donations...

just watch out for those sensor ships

Very sensor, much ship.



Its more sensor than ship though.






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nullius
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October 27, 2020, 10:46:34 PM
 #820

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..

Nor am I.  (Largely because nonprofit organizations are usually corrupt as hell.)

The way I see it:  If I were to bet against theymos and lose, then he could donate the money if he wants.  Now, if I lose, I will instead donate to something suggested by him, and acceptable to me; whereas if I win, he will donate to something that I probably do not disagree with.

Either way, it is much better than risking that I may give my money to a liberal!

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

Nor am I.  It is an open secret that I’m poor.  0.01 BTC is significant to me—I can afford to risk it, but barely so.  I wouldn’t want to make a fuss about it.  Moreover, there is no practical difference between sending the money to theymos, and sending it to the NCLA:  Either way, I am out 0.01 BTC if Trump loses.

Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

Awww.  Spoilsport.  :-(

/0 
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“Qui mori didicit, servire dedidicit.”
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