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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9804 times)
suchmoon
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August 10, 2020, 09:44:49 PM
 #501

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

That's not how margin of error works. It doesn't magically favor one candidate or the other, nor does it represent the absolute limit of difference from real results (IIRC polls report MOE at 95% confidence level).

Not to mention that sampling likely improved taking into account lessons from 2016.

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August 10, 2020, 09:47:57 PM
 #502

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

He's basically on the edge of the MOE in most polls right now.  Definitely still has a shot but assuming that Trump will win because he's down in the polls less than the margin of error seems like a mistake.  

I don't immediately assume he'll win if he's within the MOE but if he's within the error in red states, Trump should be fine. Georgia is 1/3rd black and Trump's fairly divisive on race so I expect the poll margins to be closer there.


As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

That's not how margin of error works. It doesn't magically favor one candidate or the other, nor does it represent the absolute limit of difference from real results (IIRC polls report MOE at 95% confidence level).

Not to mention that sampling likely improved taking into account lessons from 2016.

It's not about magically favoring one candidate. Trump under performed in state polling in 2016 and if he's within the margin of error, he's within striking distance and you can begin to look at historical trends of the state. Georgia and Texas favor Republican so there's a good chance they'll do so again in 2020.

By the way, what was wrong with the samples in 2016? Are you talking about oversampling certain groups?

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August 10, 2020, 10:01:31 PM
 #503

Safe to say Trump will lose the electoral college and the popular vote? Things are not looking good for him according to several polls.

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suchmoon
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August 10, 2020, 10:17:03 PM
 #504

By the way, what was wrong with the samples in 2016? Are you talking about oversampling certain groups?

Yes, for example oversampling college-educated people could have been one of polling issues in some states.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx

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August 11, 2020, 08:28:36 PM
 #505

Joe Biden picking Kamala Harris. How anti-climatic.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/joe-biden-selects-kamala-harris-his-running-mate-n1235771



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August 11, 2020, 08:46:58 PM
 #506

Nice. I ended up betting for two of my least favorite 2020 democrats. Luckily I can still count on Trump being Trump so fingers crossed.

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August 11, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
 #507

Shipments Of 20,000 Fake IDs From China Seized By Feds Ahead Of Election"

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shipments-20000-fake-ids-china-seized-feds-ahead-election

Russia working with Republicans = credible threat justifying years of investigation in spite of total lack of evidence.

China working with Democrats = INCONCEIVABLE!


He is on point.

This means fake proof is available to the left and the right.

So this means voter fraud is now an equal opportunity for the left and the right.

So this means it would be easy for either side to vote two or three times.

So if Trump wins then Biden can claim voter fraud just as easily as Trump can claim voter fraud if Biden wins.

So I guess this bet will be a push since they will both easily fight the result by claiming the other side purchased Chinese id's to vote two or three times.

I have not read all the rules so what happens if either side fights the results due to the fake Chinese id's

Seems to me either side can fight this election with ease now due too these fake id's popping up all over.


 IIRC 2000 Florida was the key and was under 1000 votes.
 These 20000 id's could have made the difference since either side can get them.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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August 11, 2020, 10:32:38 PM
 #508

Joe Biden picking Kamala Harris. How anti-climatic.
Does Harris still think that Biden is racist?


Before she dropped out, Harris was running a very bad campaign. She is very divisive and transnational.

I think SM looses the bet.

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August 11, 2020, 11:28:39 PM
 #509

I think SM looses the bet.

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August 12, 2020, 01:16:07 AM
 #510

My post contained the correct spelling. That word has always been spelled that way, and always will be.

Remember:
War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength


This is all true in a Biden/Harris administration.

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August 12, 2020, 01:24:43 AM
 #511

Picking Harris certainly is a blow to the Biden campaign. But at least she's not Hillary, and that might be enough to carry the (D) ticket to victory this time around.



These 20000 id's could have made the difference since either side can get them.

How, though? The ID is fake. What name is going to correspond on lists of voters at polling places? Without valid SSNs on each ID, they can't be used to apply for voter registration. And you can't just show up with a fake ID at a polling place and say "let me vote." Your name has to be on a list of registered voters. The IDs are used for underaged college and high school students to buy liquor, and this happens all the time.

https://nypost.com/2019/11/28/cbp-seizes-thousands-of-fake-ids-headed-from-china-to-new-york/
https://www.nj.com/news/2018/08/hundreds_of_fake_ids_turned_over_to_university_and_local_police_after_customs_busts.html
https://loudounnow.com/2017/05/09/fake-ids-seized-at-dulles/
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-record-number-fake-id-seizures-2018





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August 12, 2020, 01:32:07 AM
 #512

Does Harris still think that Biden is racist?

I assume you're referring to the White House statement that just came out: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/trump-campaign-statement-on-kamala-harris/

Quote
“Not long ago, Kamala Harris called Joe Biden a racist and asked for an apology she never received. Clearly, Phony Kamala will abandon her own morals, as well as try to bury her record as a prosecutor, in order to appease the anti-police extremists controlling the Democrat Party

I'm pretty sure this is in reference to the debate where she went after Biden for bragging about how he was able to work with pro-segregation republicans back in the day.

If that's the case, The White House statement is just another lie meant to divide and make people talk about racist Joe Biden (plus the whole 'i'm not a racist YOU ARE A RACIST' card).  In reality Kamala prefaced her statement by explicitly saying she was not accusing Biden of being racist.  As for the apology, it was for saying nice things about the senators he worked with.  He did make it, she accepted it.



cliffs:

WhiteHouse says Kamala called Joe Biden a racist and asked for an apology she never received even though Kamala made it clear she did not think Biden was racist.  Biden later apologized (Kamala accepted) for what he said about the racist senators and explained he was just trying to make the point that he had experience working people across the aisle despite their disagreements.



And you can't just show up with a fake ID at a polling place and say "let me vote." Your name has to be on a list of registered voters.

I think there are like 5 states total that even require an ID.  The 'omg fake ids = proof election is rigged!' argument is pretty idiotic even by 2020 standards.  If anything all they're doing is making voter id laws seem useless.



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August 12, 2020, 02:59:39 AM
 #513

Nice. I ended up betting for two of my least favorite 2020 democrats. Luckily I can still count on Trump being Trump so fingers crossed.

I think we all knew that Biden was going to pick Kamala, because he's Biden and hes a moderate -- but there was so much hope from the progressive members of the party that they would pick someone progressive to bring that side of the party together. As we now know, that didn't happen.

I consider the Kamala pick, and I've been hearing this among my more liberal friends, a spit in the face to the progressive movement and the BLM movement. Kamala is literally just a conservative, or at least was, when it comes to law and order back when she was the AG of San Fran and then California.

Probably the best pick for him to show that he is trying to be a moderate candidate though. Honestly, he is running on returning the country to normalcy and escaping Trump and what he has done.

VP Picks usually don't do anything to poll numbers though, so I don't think it changes anything in regards to this bet or the election as a whole.




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August 12, 2020, 03:23:50 AM
 #514

~

It looks like the least controversial pick, or rather what the Biden campaign thinks would be the least controversial pick, but there were other moderate candidates to choose from so perhaps name recognition and/or fundraising abilities played a significant role. Either that or she has some dirt on Biden that she didn't get a chance to use during primaries Grin.

At any rate, I agree, unlikely to have an effect on anything, some angry tweets notwithstanding.

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August 12, 2020, 05:00:12 AM
 #515

~

It looks like the least controversial pick, or rather what the Biden campaign thinks would be the least controversial pick, but there were other moderate candidates to choose from so perhaps name recognition and/or fundraising abilities played a significant role. Either that or she has some dirt on Biden that she didn't get a chance to use during primaries Grin.

At any rate, I agree, unlikely to have an effect on anything, some angry tweets notwithstanding.

Well that's typical Biden fashion, and he has the lead in the polls to be able to do so.

If Biden was trying to reinvent his campaign right now and was sputtering, he'd pick someone like Warren or maybe even Bernie to bring new life and voters to the ticket. But as of right now he doesn't need that. He doesn't need some flashy headlines about how amazing his pick is. He needs someone who is going to be as 'normal' as him.

He'll get some pro articles regarding the fact that she is the first black female to be picked as VP nominee for a major party. Though I think her history as a former prosecutor kills any potential wins you can get from that.




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August 12, 2020, 06:31:13 AM
 #516

Kamala was a weird choice from an electoral perspective in terms of strategy. She doesn't help Biden at all in any of the swing states but does hurt him a bit. I forgot how far left her policy stances were because she dropped out so early.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

Healthy Biden lead but Trump targeted Pennsylvania last election cycle by promising to bring back jobs in the energy sector. Kamala Harris is against fracking and that will not sit well at all with Pennsylvania. Republican PAC's will have ads with her stance on fracking running all day. Hillary Clinton was for fracking in 2016 too so this is a far left position Harris believes in for no reason other than trying to make herself more popular with the left.

She also flopped on medicare for all numerous times. Her website redirects to Biden's site but here's a cached version of her medicare for all plan - https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:kfHjVDq9cSMJ:https://kamalaharris.org/policies/medicare-for-all/

She literally doesn't believe in anything. She will adopt whatever position is popular among the far left and flip on a moment's notice. Such a garbage pick. Intersectionality strikes again.

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August 12, 2020, 05:04:50 PM
 #517

Kamala was a weird choice from an electoral perspective in terms of strategy. She doesn't help Biden at all in any of the swing states but does hurt him a bit. I forgot how far left her policy stances were because she dropped out so early.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

Healthy Biden lead but Trump targeted Pennsylvania last election cycle by promising to bring back jobs in the energy sector. Kamala Harris is against fracking and that will not sit well at all with Pennsylvania. Republican PAC's will have ads with her stance on fracking running all day. Hillary Clinton was for fracking in 2016 too so this is a far left position Harris believes in for no reason other than trying to make herself more popular with the left.

She also flopped on medicare for all numerous times. Her website redirects to Biden's site but here's a cached version of her medicare for all plan - https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:kfHjVDq9cSMJ:https://kamalaharris.org/policies/medicare-for-all/

She literally doesn't believe in anything. She will adopt whatever position is popular among the far left and flip on a moment's notice. Such a garbage pick. Intersectionality strikes again.

Kamala doesn't beleive anything, very true. Everyone watched her on the presidential campaign trail flip flop on multiple issues relating to being a progressive. The problem for her is that she wasn't a real progressive, and progressives KNEW THAT. If you were a progressive, why would you pick Kamala instead of picking someone like Warren or Sanders?

Trump highlighted her being a phony progressive in an ad yesterday. Pretty good ad, here's the link - https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1293285949917495300

There's another ad saying that Biden is a racist, and Kamala is quoted on it (as the two of them had some INTERESTING debates) - https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1293368220498505728

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August 13, 2020, 09:18:30 AM
 #518

fivethirtyeight has their first election forcast out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
(If you get upset by polls that don't favor Trump you probably shouldn't look)

They've got some pretty cool visualizations.





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August 13, 2020, 12:24:53 PM
 #519

INTERESTING debates

Speaking of which, Pence-Harris debate should be interesting.

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August 13, 2020, 02:06:47 PM
 #520

There is an argument for a 4th debate in which Trump debates Harris and Pence debates Biden. This would allow Americans to see a contrast between who would be president if their candidate were to be elected.

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