Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[be.open]

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

[paxmao]

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

I could almost believe you... if it weren't for that little visit to North Korea by your Chief Psychopath asking the very powerful kingdom, of roughly 25 million people to please supply shells so that the Ruzzian slave army could keep on pushing. Things do not collapse until they collapse, so keep on banking on "global attrition of shells" it may be the only thing you have left to hope for.

[be.open]

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/

The Army is spending $1.45 billion on capacity “to expand 155mm artillery production from 14,000 a month to over 24,000 later this year,” and 85,000 in five years, ...

24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

I could almost believe you... if it weren't for that little visit to North Korea by your Chief Psychopath asking the very powerful kingdom, of roughly 25 million people to please supply shells so that the Ruzzian slave army could keep on pushing. Things do not collapse until they collapse, so keep on banking on "global attrition of shells" it may be the only thing you have left to hope for.

This is a high-intensity military conflict, Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily, and Ukraine about 5,000 artillery shells per day. I hope you have not yet lost the ability to do basic arithmetic in order to independently balance daily spending and monthly production.

[BADecker]

^^^ Good point.

But the big point is that with Russia's better general accuracy, they are doing more than 4x the damage on Ukraine.

However, when you are sweeping the floor with a broom, the last little bit is often the hardest. For example, it's easy to sweep up the big piles of dirt. But if you want to get every, tiny speck of dirt, you need to use a wet mop to mop it all up.

Russia is at the wet mop stage with Ukraine, even though they haven't started mopping, yet.

[paxmao]

It seems that Ukraine has stopped in a quite expedite and violent way the Ruzzian attempt to attack the Krinki bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. One could say that the drone operators of Ukraine basically "work from home". The degree of surveillance and potential to destroy anything in 20 km of Kherson is astonishing - nothing moves without Ukraine knowing. The only exception is the air launched heavy bombs, which are inaccurate but in large quantities so occasionally they hit something of value.

Other bits of the front have also some good news, but it changes from day to day, .... stalemate.#

Oh, Be.open you are going to like the price levels in your country... 6% inflation, 3% growth... If you cannot do the math I will for you: Ruzzia is effectively shrinking a 3%.

[BADecker]

The Ukraine war is in the sidelines... at least for Russia as she expands worldwide... while Ukraine declines with every step she takes.

[suchmoon]

Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now

Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

[BADecker]

Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now

Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

Like the US supplying armaments to  Ukraine, Russia is eating into her own stockpiles. That's why she is calling for her people to help manufacture more.

The thing we don't clearly know is, how much ammo is Russia getting from other countries?... like from China in return for the gas going to China through the Siberian pipeline.

[tvbcof]

It seems that Ukraine has stopped in a quite expedite and violent way the Ruzzian attempt to attack the Krinki bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. One could say that the drone operators of Ukraine basically "work from home". The degree of surveillance and potential to destroy anything in 20 km of Kherson is astonishing - nothing moves without Ukraine knowing. The only exception is the air launched heavy bombs, which are inaccurate but in large quantities so occasionally they hit something of value.
...

Krynki reminds me of the way my cat used to play with a mouse for a while before putting an end to it with a quick bite of the spine.  The Russians get to hit anywhere they want along along a tortuous supply line.  Yet one more illustration of Jewkrainian strategy which screams the goal of losing as many Ukrainians as possible.

Dima in his just-finished show floats the idea that the PR move do draw attention away from the Krynki disaster this time might be the use nBC.  We'll see I guess.

  The Fall | Ukraine is Preparing A Gesture Of Goodwill - Withdrawing. Military Summary For 2023.12.11
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MROIMABiPME

[Branko]

It seems that Ukraine has stopped in a quite expedite and violent way the Ruzzian attempt to attack the Krinki bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. One could say that the drone operators of Ukraine basically "work from home". The degree of surveillance and potential to destroy anything in 20 km of Kherson is astonishing - nothing moves without Ukraine knowing. The only exception is the air launched heavy bombs, which are inaccurate but in large quantities so occasionally they hit something of value.

Other bits of the front have also some good news, but it changes from day to day, .... stalemate.#

Oh, Be.open you are going to like the price levels in your country... 6% inflation, 3% growth... If you cannot do the math I will for you: Ruzzia is effectively shrinking a 3%.

Ya, indeed

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-dnieper-kherson-river-1851143

"The Odesa outlet Dumskaya described the operation to maintain the bridgehead as resulting in large losses for little achievable purpose.

"Marines cross the river and most are killed as they approach the shore," it said. "There is no talk of any further breakthrough; now the forces are being wasted simply on staying there. For what?"

It called for the Ukrainian command "to curtail this operation," which was going to be linked with the offensive in the Zaporozhzhia region which has already ended."



BTW, how is Russia growth compared with UK 0.5% growth and 6% inflation, is that better than Russia?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2023#:~:text=The%20core%20CPIH%20annual%20inflation,in%20the%20constructed%20historical%20series.

[paxmao]

It seems that Ukraine has stopped in a quite expedite and violent way the Ruzzian attempt to attack the Krinki bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. One could say that the drone operators of Ukraine basically "work from home". The degree of surveillance and potential to destroy anything in 20 km of Kherson is astonishing - nothing moves without Ukraine knowing. The only exception is the air launched heavy bombs, which are inaccurate but in large quantities so occasionally they hit something of value.

Other bits of the front have also some good news, but it changes from day to day, .... stalemate.#

Oh, Be.open you are going to like the price levels in your country... 6% inflation, 3% growth... If you cannot do the math I will for you: Ruzzia is effectively shrinking a 3%.

Ya, indeed

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-dnieper-kherson-river-1851143

"The Odesa outlet Dumskaya described the operation to maintain the bridgehead as resulting in large losses for little achievable purpose.

"Marines cross the river and most are killed as they approach the shore," it said. "There is no talk of any further breakthrough; now the forces are being wasted simply on staying there. For what?"

It called for the Ukrainian command "to curtail this operation," which was going to be linked with the offensive in the Zaporozhzhia region which has already ended."



BTW, how is Russia growth compared with UK 0.5% growth and 6% inflation, is that better than Russia?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2023#:~:text=The%20core%20CPIH%20annual%20inflation,in%20the%20constructed%20historical%20series.

I am not sure you understand the situation, but first things first: a) UK inflation is 4.6%, you are using a year old data. b) UK interest rates are at 5.25%
Now, if you want to compare with Ruzzzzzzzia ... is 7.5%, BUT the rates are above 15%. You have mid-high inflation and high rates. I guess you are trying very hard to ignore that Ruzzia has very limited marging to contain inflation: (a) do nothing a get into hyperinflation (b) raise rates and kill utterly the growth. Even you must know this.

But the funny thing is that it does not matter, because the UK does not have to spend more than a 2% of the gdp on weapons - because the UK is not at war. Ruzzia (surprise surprise) is in a full blown, high-intensity war and can (a) retire an end the war or (b) continue the war and risk hyperinflation or stagflation.

And yes, the risk of hyperinflation is very real because many of the people who should be working have fled (the educated ones) or are in the front (the poor ones) while the production for the war is calling for extra workforce. The recipee for a salary driven inflation is served.

Just pray that the Saudis do not decide to increase the production by a couple million barrels a day at the same time.

[DaRude]

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

So you agreed that west has been sending less aid than needed for Ukrain's victory for almost 2 years now. And now with war fatigue, changing leaderships, loosing attention to Israel/Palestine conflict, less than 50% of Americans support sending more aid to Ukraine and falling, polls showing Biden loosing to Trump with US going into the elections year, Zelenskiy's popularity falling with infighting in Ukraine's leadership, and US loosing moral high ground with a The United States vetoed a United Nations resolution Friday backed by almost all other Security Council members and many other nations demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza. how realistic do you think that Ukraine gets "proper yearly long aid package"? Sorry to squash your hopes but this NY times article might hint on the answer.

The New York Times - Dec. 11, 2023
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.

The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.
...
American officials say that without a change in strategy, 2024 could be akin to 1916, the deadliest year of World War I, when thousands of young men lost their lives and battle lines changed very little.

Ukrainian hospitals are already filled with injured soldiers. Ambulances moved back and forth from the front throughout this year’s counteroffensive. Ukraine has not released official numbers of its war dead, but the losses, officials concede, have been steep.

The 2023 counteroffensive was built around remaking Ukraine’s army in the image of America’s. It was, critics said, the approach the United States had tried in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, largely unsuccessfully.
...
U.S. and Ukrainian strategists did not initially realize how much more Russians were strengthening their defenses. Ukrainian troops training in Germany practiced breaking through defenses far less strong than what they would eventually face.
...
Ukraine does not need to claw back all of the nearly 20 percent of the country it has lost to win the war, American officials say.
...
American officials are trying to prepare the Ukrainians for next year, telling them that whatever aid Congress approves is not likely to match the kind of funding that Washington provided in the first two years of the war.

“They have to fight smartly and efficiently,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.

Lets redefine winning, and Ukraine now needs to fight in such a way that they loose slower  conflict of interests at its best

[be.open]

Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now

Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

Ukraine doesn’t produce artillery shells at all and spends 5,000 shells a day, doesn’t anything bother you about this strategy?

[paxmao]

Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now

Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

Ukraine doesn’t produce artillery shells at all and spends 5,000 shells a day, doesn’t anything bother you about this strategy?

Both of those statements are wrong.

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

The New York Times - Dec. 11, 2023
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

[...]

You have just hit the spot! That is exactly the problem! A bunch of journalists that need to sell newspaper no-matter-what and a bunch of generals, particularly US generals, that are not accountable for the results, will not suffer if Ukraine fails and certainly are not know for being able themselves to "fight with a tight budget" (I laughed a lot on this one coming from US generals) telling Ukraine how they have to fight... inclusive the fantastic doctrine about minefields consisting in "going around them".

OMG... this would be so funny if it were not a war.

The US has to make a decision and there are no shortcuts to it: give enough to hold for ever (uneconomic), give enough to win this war (hurts, but hurts only for a little while) or let Ruzzzia take whatever, which brings another war in 4 years - closer to the US bases in EU.

[BADecker]

~

~

The New York Times - Dec. 11, 2023
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

[...]

You have just hit the spot! That is exactly the problem! A bunch of journalists that need to sell newspaper no-matter-what and a bunch of generals, particularly US generals, that are not accountable for the results, will not suffer if Ukraine fails and certainly are not know for being able themselves to "fight with a tight budget" (I laughed a lot on this one coming from US generals) telling Ukraine how they have to fight... inclusive the fantastic doctrine about minefields consisting in "going around them".

OMG... this would be so funny if it were not a war.

The US has to make a decision and there are no shortcuts to it: give enough to hold for ever (uneconomic), give enough to win this war (hurts, but hurts only for a little while) or let Ruzzzia take whatever, which brings another war in 4 years - closer to the US bases in EU.

The US couldn't push Russia into a full-scale war with Ukraine. That's part of the reason why they instigated the Israel/Hamas thing, and started pushing war in Syria. Russia doesn't want to conquer Ukraine. If it did, it would have long ago.


EXPERTS: Putin wants to keep Ukraine out of NATO, not conquer it


https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-12-11-putin-wants-keep-ukraine-out-of-nato.html
The Western media has been working up the narrative that Russian President Vladimir Putin is just a power-crazed imperialist who wants to invade Ukraine and the surrounding countries to reestablish the Soviet Empire in Europe.

In fact, a CNN article dated June 11, 2022, said: "By summoning the memory of Peter the Great, it also becomes clear that Putin’s aims are driven by some sense of historical destiny. And Putin's project of imperial restoration could – in theory – extend to other territories that once belonged to the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union, something that should raise alarms in all the countries that emerged from the collapse of the USSR."

This did not sit well with the daily news and opinion site LewRockwell.com, which proved this to be untrue. According to the site, Russia started the conflict with Ukraine without an invasion objective, but a limited tactical intrusion to bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government to the negotiating table and guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. It supported this argument by juxtaposing the Russian president's military approach to Ukraine with that of Israel in Gaza.

Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with some 190,000 troops. Meanwhile, as the Israeli government's response to the October 7 attack by Hamas, it amassed 300,000 troops around the Gaza Strip in anticipation of a ground invasion. The Gaza Strip is a narrow stretch of coastal land with a total area of 141 square miles populated by some 2.2 million people. On the other hand, Ukraine is one big country –  the second largest country in Europe after Russia – and runs for 817 miles from west to east and 554 miles from north to south. Its area totals 233,032 square miles and has more than 42 million inhabitants. So, the territory of Ukraine is more than 1600 times larger than that of the Middle East enclave and its population is nearly 20 times more.

The Israelis also gathered 50 percent more troops than Russia to invade a coastal strip whose population is five percent that of Ukraine and whose territory is less than one percent of Ukraine's territory. It mobilized more troops for its invasion of the tiny strip than Putin had gathered for his alleged plan to conquer the second-largest country on the continent as well as the other European nations. Putin's invasion force of fewer than 200,000 soldiers was very small by any measurable standard. If he really wanted to invade Kyiv, he would have to go in with far greater numbers.

"There's no way that an army that had 190,000 troops [at the most] could have conquered all of Ukraine… it's just impossible," one of the world's leading foreign policy experts John Mearsheimer stated in the interview below. He added that it would require at least two million troops to conquer and occupy Ukraine.
...

[LTU_btc]

Ukraine doesn’t produce artillery shells at all and spends 5,000 shells a day, doesn’t anything bother you about this strategy?

Both of those statements are wrong.

Ukraine produce artillery shells, but it's tiny numbers, maybe up to 1000-2000, while they're using similar amounts just in one day.
BTW, there isn't much talk about it, but South Korea suppoied more shells to Ukraine than all EU countries combined. Impressive from Korean perspective, sad from European:
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315
Russia producing 85 000 shells is impressive, but when you're spending whole month production in 4-5 days, that's probably not something to brag about.

[DaRude]

Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now

Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

Ukraine doesn’t produce artillery shells at all and spends 5,000 shells a day, doesn’t anything bother you about this strategy?

Both of those statements are wrong.

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

The New York Times - Dec. 11, 2023
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

[...]

You have just hit the spot! That is exactly the problem! A bunch of journalists that need to sell newspaper no-matter-what and a bunch of generals, particularly US generals, that are not accountable for the results, will not suffer if Ukraine fails and certainly are not know for being able themselves to "fight with a tight budget" (I laughed a lot on this one coming from US generals) telling Ukraine how they have to fight... inclusive the fantastic doctrine about minefields consisting in "going around them".

OMG... this would be so funny if it were not a war.

The US has to make a decision and there are no shortcuts to it: give enough to hold for ever (uneconomic), give enough to win this war (hurts, but hurts only for a little while) or let Ruzzzia take whatever, which brings another war in 4 years - closer to the US bases in EU.

Glad we're at least partially on the same page. Only i don't think journalists have anything to do with the planning or the outcome whatsoever, they're just mostly pushing whichever propaganda and they're usually a good indicator of whats to come as they're typically used to set the mood/pivot the population before official announcements. As for the generals, the pentagon and NATO overall, either not sending enough weapons to win was just a silly coincidence/misunderstanding/miscalculation and only now, after almost two years of war generals have to make a decision as you claim, or that decision has already been made a while ago and those hundreds of generals get their funding from (career) politicians which are mostly interested in keeping the power or enough popularity to get re/elected. For the upside Putin having a sudden heart attack and Russia falling apart is a huge upside, Russia had control of those Ukrainian bases which are "closer to the EU" all the way up to 2014, and no one really cared much, so why not try it. Now that we see that it didn't work, oh well not much of a downside. But keeping this going has a real downside of Europe tearing apart, and politicians just loosing their jobs if they continue to vote for unpopular war that's only becoming even more unpopular how can they send more than before if now only 18% of population believe US is not sending enough.

[paxmao]

Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now

Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

Ukraine doesn’t produce artillery shells at all and spends 5,000 shells a day, doesn’t anything bother you about this strategy?

Both of those statements are wrong.

The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
 
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.

Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.

The New York Times - Dec. 11, 2023
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

[...]

You have just hit the spot! That is exactly the problem! A bunch of journalists that need to sell newspaper no-matter-what and a bunch of generals, particularly US generals, that are not accountable for the results, will not suffer if Ukraine fails and certainly are not know for being able themselves to "fight with a tight budget" (I laughed a lot on this one coming from US generals) telling Ukraine how they have to fight... inclusive the fantastic doctrine about minefields consisting in "going around them".

OMG... this would be so funny if it were not a war.

The US has to make a decision and there are no shortcuts to it: give enough to hold for ever (uneconomic), give enough to win this war (hurts, but hurts only for a little while) or let Ruzzzia take whatever, which brings another war in 4 years - closer to the US bases in EU.

Glad we're at least partially on the same page. Only i don't think journalists have anything to do with the planning or the outcome whatsoever, they're just mostly pushing whichever propaganda and they're usually a good indicator of whats to come as they're typically used to set the mood/pivot the population before official announcements. As for the generals, the pentagon and NATO overall, either not sending enough weapons to win was just a silly coincidence/misunderstanding/miscalculation and only now, after almost two years of war generals have to make a decision as you claim, or that decision has already been made a while ago and those hundreds of generals get their funding from (career) politicians which are mostly interested in keeping the power or enough popularity to get re/elected. For the upside Putin having a sudden heart attack and Russia falling apart is a huge upside, Russia had control of those Ukrainian bases which are "closer to the EU" all the way up to 2014, and no one really cared much, so why not try it. Now that we see that it didn't work, oh well not much of a downside. But keeping this going has a real downside of Europe tearing apart, and politicians just loosing their jobs if they continue to vote for unpopular war that's only becoming even more unpopular how can they send more than before if now only 18% of population believe US is not sending enough.

The media push an agenda, which does not necessarily mean is a anti-Ruzzian agenda. I am sure many believe that it would be much better to be cozy with Ruzzia. My view, as said many times, is that Ruzzia wants to get a grip on Europe and it needs to stop somewhere - e.g. right here, right now. Ukrainians are fighting because they believe would be better off without Moscow.

The war is not popular in Ruzzia. I saw the statistics recently in the Economist. The ones that support the war are the richest elites, they are making a lot. All the rest of the population would rather not have it.

On governments in Europe ... I think Europe is fully convinced of supporting Ukraine. On the US government, we will see, because even if Trump gets an "out of jail" card in March, his "ending the war in 48 hours" means the carrot... but make no mistake: there is also a stick attached to it if Putin finds the offer unacceptable.

[BADecker]

~

Glad we're at least partially on the same page. Only i don't think journalists have anything to do with the planning or the outcome whatsoever, they're just mostly pushing whichever propaganda and they're usually a good indicator of whats to come as they're typically used to set the mood/pivot the population before official announcements. As for the generals, the pentagon and NATO overall, either not sending enough weapons to win was just a silly coincidence/misunderstanding/miscalculation and only now, after almost two years of war generals have to make a decision as you claim, or that decision has already been made a while ago and those hundreds of generals get their funding from (career) politicians which are mostly interested in keeping the power or enough popularity to get re/elected. For the upside Putin having a sudden heart attack and Russia falling apart is a huge upside, Russia had control of those Ukrainian bases which are "closer to the EU" all the way up to 2014, and no one really cared much, so why not try it. Now that we see that it didn't work, oh well not much of a downside. But keeping this going has a real downside of Europe tearing apart, and politicians just loosing their jobs if they continue to vote for unpopular war that's only becoming even more unpopular how can they send more than before if now only 18% of population believe US is not sending enough.

The media push an agenda, which does not necessarily mean is a anti-Ruzzian agenda. I am sure many believe that it would be much better to be cozy with Ruzzia. My view, as said many times, is that Ruzzia wants to get a grip on Europe and it needs to stop somewhere - e.g. right here, right now. Ukrainians are fighting because they believe would be better off without Moscow.

The war is not popular in Ruzzia. I saw the statistics recently in the Economist. The ones that support the war are the richest elites, they are making a lot. All the rest of the population would rather not have it.

On governments in Europe ... I think Europe is fully convinced of supporting Ukraine. On the US government, we will see, because even if Trump gets an "out of jail" card in March, his "ending the war in 48 hours" means the carrot... but make no mistake: there is also a stick attached to it if Putin finds the offer unacceptable.

The war is not popular in any major country. Do you think the Ukrainian people like it? It wasn't easy for the millions who migrated out of Ukraine just to get away from war. They would have rather stayed home in peace.

But just to show everybody where you are, you seem to like the war, just like your buddy Zelensky... along with the ruling elite of the world and their military war machines. Kill off the few Ukrainians that are left, before they simply fail, and Russia is shown to be the good guy by going in and helping them out with reparations.

Governments are made ups of supposed leaders. They are not made up of the people/citizens. Most of the citizens don't want war. It's the leaders that want war.

Wake up.

[paxmao]

~

Glad we're at least partially on the same page. Only i don't think journalists have anything to do with the planning or the outcome whatsoever, they're just mostly pushing whichever propaganda and they're usually a good indicator of whats to come as they're typically used to set the mood/pivot the population before official announcements. As for the generals, the pentagon and NATO overall, either not sending enough weapons to win was just a silly coincidence/misunderstanding/miscalculation and only now, after almost two years of war generals have to make a decision as you claim, or that decision has already been made a while ago and those hundreds of generals get their funding from (career) politicians which are mostly interested in keeping the power or enough popularity to get re/elected. For the upside Putin having a sudden heart attack and Russia falling apart is a huge upside, Russia had control of those Ukrainian bases which are "closer to the EU" all the way up to 2014, and no one really cared much, so why not try it. Now that we see that it didn't work, oh well not much of a downside. But keeping this going has a real downside of Europe tearing apart, and politicians just loosing their jobs if they continue to vote for unpopular war that's only becoming even more unpopular how can they send more than before if now only 18% of population believe US is not sending enough.

The media push an agenda, which does not necessarily mean is a anti-Ruzzian agenda. I am sure many believe that it would be much better to be cozy with Ruzzia. My view, as said many times, is that Ruzzia wants to get a grip on Europe and it needs to stop somewhere - e.g. right here, right now. Ukrainians are fighting because they believe would be better off without Moscow.

The war is not popular in Ruzzia. I saw the statistics recently in the Economist. The ones that support the war are the richest elites, they are making a lot. All the rest of the population would rather not have it.

On governments in Europe ... I think Europe is fully convinced of supporting Ukraine. On the US government, we will see, because even if Trump gets an "out of jail" card in March, his "ending the war in 48 hours" means the carrot... but make no mistake: there is also a stick attached to it if Putin finds the offer unacceptable.

The war is not popular in any major country. Do you think the Ukrainian people like it? It wasn't easy for the millions who migrated out of Ukraine just to get away from war. They would have rather stayed home in peace.

But just to show everybody where you are, you seem to like the war, just like your buddy Zelensky... along with the ruling elite of the world and their military war machines. Kill off the few Ukrainians that are left, before they simply fail, and Russia is shown to be the good guy by going in and helping them out with reparations.

Governments are made ups of supposed leaders. They are not made up of the people/citizens. Most of the citizens don't want war. It's the leaders that want war.

Wake up.

You are wrong. US presidents often rise in popularity when they wage war. Ruzzia population at several levels were supportive of the war at the beginning. Wake up  and try to read some proper information - do you need more confirmation that you are NOT better informed, smarter or more moral than the rest of the users here dumbass?

By the way, it seems that quite a few incidents are ongoing with the Ruzzian civil aviation. It seems that they are "patching" here and there the components, so I would not be surprised to see metal raining from the Ruzzia skies.