No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream?

[Lucius]

There is nothing fantastic about this idea. In Norway, for example, now 4 out of 5 cars sold are electric cars. And from 2025 they plan to completely stop selling private cars with internal combustion engines.
~snip~

Countries like Norway or Sweden are exceptions if we consider other parts of Europe, because they have long since overcome some basic obstacles and due to their natural resources and high standard of living, they can afford to reach some goals much earlier than everyone else. Some data say that in Denmark even 70% of people use bicycles or public transport, and they are not even interested in the state's generous incentives when it comes to buying electric vehicles.


Another important point that we may not have mentioned is that the ban on production vehicles with internal combustion does not mean that everyone will suddenly switch to electric vehicles or some other alternative - all those who own old vehicles should continue to use them as long as they want to - or until the government decided to close all gas stations.

[1715005843]

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[slapper]

The concept that all gasoline and diesel vehicles will be banned by 2035 makes me chuckle. It's a worthy aim, but I'm not sure how realistic it is. Buyers may have a hard time making the transition to electric automobiles despite the fact that they are more expensive than conventional vehicles. When I consider how much energy is expended in the mines to produce the metals used to construct electric automobiles, I have to wonder if they are truly sustainable. Who can predict what kind of cutting-edge technologies will be introduced in the coming decade? Only time will tell if this strategy was successful. But I'm going to keep driving my trusty gas-powered automobile for the time being and cross my fingers

[CoinEraser]

So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

I think this goal can be achieved in 12 years. In recent years, the car manufacturers have been able to prepare for this law to come at some point and I think they have been preparing for it for a long time and are taking all the necessary measures. The development of new electric cars will certainly be pushed ahead in the next few years and who can say how effective they will be in 2035. Certainly better than today.

But until all the old petrol and diesel vehicles are gone from the streets, it will probably take another 10-20 years, I would guess. Unless there will be a law against the use of such vehicles, which I don't think there will be. But if this doesn't happen quickly enough, I can imagine that use will be restricted more and more and people will voluntarily switch to an electric car. This will certainly avoid that there will be a general ban. 

[molsewid]

Many governments are moving to push hard to reduce sales of diesel and petrol cars, the European Parliament has officially approved a law banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the EU from 2035

The landmark law will require carmakers to cut down CO2 emissions by 100 percent.
The 100 percent cut in CO2 emissions from new cars sold would make it impossible to sell petrol or diesel-powered cars in the 27-country bloc. The law that comes into effect in phases that will require a 55 percent cut in CO2 emissions for new cars starting 2030, which is a much higher target in comparison to the current 37.5 percent.

Source ---> https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/electric-cars/no-petrol/diesel-car-sales-by-2035-european-parliament-approves-ban/articleshow/97939363.cms

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.
So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

Yes this is possible, as what I am seeing right now day by day technology is being used now in many cases in many ways , it is truly a fast paced indeed. Sooner or later most of the jobs now are being run by AI , ML . For example in some factory, many people will be laid off and it will be replace by robots, soon many car companies will offer their unique version of self driving cars and such. Diesel fueled car will no longer available in the market.

[Sayeds56]

It is very difficult to predict future with accuracy but it is becoming increasing likely that petrol/diesel cars sales will be phased out in many parts of the world. United Kingdom has already set target to ban sales of new petrol/diesel cars from 2030, and Canada wants to follow suit by 2035.It is also important to note that many major car manufacturers are making heavy investments in Electric Vehicles (EV) which suggests that they are preparing for future with no or little demand for petrol/diesel cars.The cost of running electric cars is also becoming lower compared to petrol/diesel cars, though its purchase price is higher, but with the technological advancement, it is likely to come down in future.

Taking all these factors into consideration, it is reasonable to expect that goal of phasing out petrol/diesel cars will be achieved by 2035.

[SUPERSAIAN]

European countries made a tough decision and took quick action in this regard. I expect such a decision to come, now officially approved. I think it will take a long time for countries with no charging infrastructure or financial means to pass, maybe they will still continue to use gasoline/diesel vehicles. I do not know what action can be taken in this regard, as a result, the whole world is affected by the gases produced by gasoline and diesel vehicles.

[franky1]

car prices wont come down much.

however
a. inflation will make car prices seem reasonable value
~4%-5% inflation a year for 12 years is the same as "50% discount" of value
EG a $40k car now. and a $40k car in 12 years will feel like
buying 30,000 loaves of bread now vs 15,000 loaves of bread in 12 years
equivalent of a 3 year degree now vs 18 month diploma in 12 years
3 years of middleclass rent vs 18months of middleclass rent

b. most local/regional governments are also investing in small/public transport
such as making cycles paths and public commuter buses, driverless taxis so that those that cannot afford electric cars can still get around reasonably cheap using a electric bike. scooter, bus or taxi whereby the bus or taxi will be low cost due to lack of driver labour costs

c. most cars life cycle are 32 years* so the cars bought 2003 years ago wont exist in the 2035
so they do not need to cater to demand now to reach goal for 2035. they just need to grow now to cater to demand of 2035+
*EG if average cars produced a year in the US is 9mill and there are 290m cars
that means a cars life cycle is 32years

they dont need to be making 9m EV cars now per year
but over next 12 years get upto that 9m-10m production mark

d. expanding on (c) point fuel cars will still be around and gas/fuel stations will still be around in 2050-60.. they just wont be producing fuel based cars from 2035

[Hispo]

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I would love to have that time when most public transportation are reliable just like in Japan and other rich countries. Because I can see that many countries are car eccentric and that's why public transportation is like an option for those that can't afford.

Regardless of the positive impact reliable public transportation systems can have on the environment and on the life of people, we cannot forget that those systems and vessels are very expensive and not all countries will be initially able to buy them and maintain them properly. That is why you can talk about Japan or Europe while referencing their railroads and buses, but the context is very different in South America and Africa, for example.

Perhaps, some rich countries would be interested in giving some low interest loans for it, since working together against global warming has some emphasis in Europe and America.

[rat03gopoh]

or until the government decided to close all gas stations.

Or with a number of policies and offers that frankly provide many advantages for old car owners to exchange for new EVs, as Thailand has done which seems to be targeting 30% of vehicle production to be EVs in the next 8 years, (2030):

• sales of EV units at subsidized prices^[1];
  
• purchase excise tax incentive package^[2].
  

I also thinking about several steps that the government can take until the target is met:

• Subsidized charging costs at fuel stations.
• The cost of maintenance and purchase of spare parts in the official workshop.
• tax exemption for several years.

1. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2321562/inside-thailands-ev-revolution
2. https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/thailand-issues-new-incentive-package-for-electric-vehicle-industry/

[thecodebear]

By 2035 I would think new sales internal combustion engine cars will be rare. At least in places like the US, Europe, Japan. Wouldn't be surprised in those sorts of places if there are no more new fossil fuel cars by then (well maybe the US will still have some but it might be like 10% of new sales). Third world countries though will still have ICE cars for a good long while. It'll take them longer to transition to the newer tech and to build the charging infrastructure.

[avikz]

Can be a reality in smaller countries like many EU countries but not at all practical for the bigger countries like Russia, China, US, India, Australia etc. Also the price of an EV is a big turndown. 40% of the cost goes to just it's battery.

I quite often go for a long drive. I do at least one long drive every month. Now if I want to use EV, every single time I will have to halt for at least an hour just to recharge the car.

So the target of 2035 looks quite ambitious to me. Unless a technological breakthrough is achieved like fast charging or extraordinary range, EV will remain impractical for bigger countries.

I have used LG smartphones before.  They were great smartphones (great design, great screen, light weight, great cameras).  

However, their battery life left a lot to be desired.  Also, these smartphones very slowly charged the battery from charging.  

However, now I use smartphones from the Chinese company Xiaomi and see great progress in the field of batteries and fast charging technology.  Batteries easily hold a charge for two days, and charge in 40 minutes.  This indicates that technological progress is developing very quickly.  

Returning to LG smartphones - despite the weak battery, they had a very useful feature - a removable battery.  Electric vehicles may also have a removable battery that can be quickly replaced while driving.

I completely understand what you are trying to say! We all have seen that transition. That's why I have mentioned unless a technological breakthrough is achieved and unless the price of batteries is slashed, it's hard for EV to see commercial success. Also, a lot depends on the EV infrastructure. I have seen many EU countries have decent EV infra, especially Norway! But this is easier for a smaller country to manage. But for bigger countries like India or China or Russia, it is extremely difficult.

But the silver lining here is that the governments are taking an interest to promote EV through tax benefits and policy changes. I will end with a personal story. I had purchased my second car in December 2022. The same car is available in EV as well but I have got the petrol one. It is simply because the EV car with the same feature is at least 30% costlier. The price is a big factor.

[michellee]

It seems that from now on, car companies will have to work hard to make electric cars that can replace petrol and diesel cars so that by that year, they can sell electric cars. One day, gasoline and diesel resources will run out, and there must be a renewable energy source that can replace them. That is why electric cars are expected to be an alternative to reduce CO2 emissions or pollution from vehicles. And by that time, the use of cars will reduce and be replaced by electric cars worldwide.

[davis196]

Banning petrol/diesel cars by 2035 seems like a pretty drastic measure. I don't think that the EV industry is going to fully replace the conventional cars in such short time frame. 12 years isn't enough. Li-Ion batteries simply aren't good enough and they have to be replaced by new batteries. Most of the new battery technologies would require at least a decade of testing, before they hit the market.
Another problem is the amount of electricity, that's going to be needed in order to fill the demand. Solar panels and wind turbines won't be enough to cover the demand and energy storage is also a problem, because the system will have to be somewhat balanced.

[mindrust]

Hopefully a pipe dream. I am one of those who prefer ICE cars over EV's. I love my car and as long as I can buy another, I will. I will never buy a EV. If they give me one for free, i will just sell it and buy an ICE car. EV's are not suitable for making long trips and the range simply sucks. If the weather is too hot, the range goes down. If the weather is too cold the range goes down. I already carry a cellphone with me and its battery life drives me crazy. I don't need another troublemaker.

I think instead of making cars running on batteries, they should make phones running on oil. I would pre-order an ICE cell-phone.

[leeboy]

I don't think that this will make our world better. We still don't have real ecological alternatives for petrol cars

[EarnOnVictor]

Pollution and greenhouse effect caused by combustion engines are alarming and are detrimental to health, the climate has to be preserved, and I believe the world power will lead by example as they are already working towards realising it.

But the initial challenge will be the price of the cars and machines produced. They can't be cheap initially, and the ones we've seen now are not cheap to be sincere. However, 2035 is 12 years ahead, and many things are still possible. Yet, I know the G-6 countries would try, but they might still not be able to fade away 50% of their target by then. This would be worse in developing and underdeveloped countries.

So, in my view, it might take over a century to fade this away after some genuine efforts towards the project.

[Rikafip]

Banning petrol/diesel cars by 2035 seems like a pretty drastic measure. I don't think that the EV industry is going to fully replace the conventional cars in such short time frame. 12 years isn't enough. Li-Ion batteries simply aren't good enough and they have to be replaced by new batteries.

They don't plan to ban the sale of all petrol/diesel cars by 2035, but instead the sale of new cars. If they really go through this idea, I can see people massively switching to used cars instead of buying new electric ones, at least in the less developed EU countries like mine.

Overall its just a stupid idea and nothing but a dream but they just don't realize it yet.

[serveria.com]

Many governments are moving to push hard to reduce sales of diesel and petrol cars, the European Parliament has officially approved a law banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the EU from 2035

The landmark law will require carmakers to cut down CO2 emissions by 100 percent.
The 100 percent cut in CO2 emissions from new cars sold would make it impossible to sell petrol or diesel-powered cars in the 27-country bloc. The law that comes into effect in phases that will require a 55 percent cut in CO2 emissions for new cars starting 2030, which is a much higher target in comparison to the current 37.5 percent.

Source ---> https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/electric-cars/no-petrol/diesel-car-sales-by-2035-european-parliament-approves-ban/articleshow/97939363.cms

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.
So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

Please pay attention, the EU law bans the sale of new petrol and diesel cars not the use of existing cars (also no mentions of import?). So, theoretically,  you could buy a new car on December 31, 2034 and drive it for another 5-10years. So, there's a chance we'll see 70-80% EV share in EU in some 20-30 years most probably. Will the sale of petrol cars stop in 2035? Most probably yes. Will petrol cars disappear from roads by 2035? Definitely no.

And to answer your other question: yes, I think electric cars will become more efficient and cheap than now.  

[DrBeer]

There is nothing fantastic about this idea. In Norway, for example, now 4 out of 5 cars sold are electric cars. And from 2025 they plan to completely stop selling private cars with internal combustion engines.
~snip~

Countries like Norway or Sweden are exceptions if we consider other parts of Europe, because they have long since overcome some basic obstacles and due to their natural resources and high standard of living, they can afford to reach some goals much earlier than everyone else. Some data say that in Denmark even 70% of people use bicycles or public transport, and they are not even interested in the state's generous incentives when it comes to buying electric vehicles.


Another important point that we may not have mentioned is that the ban on production vehicles with internal combustion does not mean that everyone will suddenly switch to electric vehicles or some other alternative - all those who own old vehicles should continue to use them as long as they want to - or until the government decided to close all gas stations.

You have noticed a very subtle nuance! Indeed, in these countries, approaches to life, the concept of values is very different from the classical behavior of people living for the sake of "accumulation" and visible wealth. Therefore, the value of the car in these countries has decreased. Many people refuse to become a full-fledged owner due to the lack of a constant need. A lot of people use car-sharing and other convenient services that do not burden wallets. Of course, there will be a layer for which a car is an opportunity to show "its advantages" and "its status".

But I think that in today's situation, Russia has staged an oil and gas terror in Europe, will only accelerate the process of Europeans switching to cars that are less dependent on "fuel for the implementation of political complexes and grievances." Whatever one may say, oil will rise in price in the future - its reserves are not unlimited, and the development of new fields is becoming more and more difficult and expensive. Therefore, the transition to at least hybrids and then to full-fledged electric cars is already in the near future. Yes, with the exception of economically and technologically backward countries with underdeveloped economies, where buying and owning an electric car will be very expensive and difficult

[Yatsan]

Possible but I think it will take a little longer than stated if it would be exclusive to cars or any vehicles. Right now e-scooters and the likes are being a trend. What slows down the process is simply electricity being expensive still at the present simply because resources of it is still not as accessible as supposed to. Also, I doubt diesel and petrol would be totally replaced especially to industries given that natural resources will always have its use and function aside from being cheaper than alternatives. But since we are talking about cars, this will come into reality once it is less expensive than the usual source of power for vehicles.