No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream?

[Davidvictorson]

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.
So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

My response to OP's question is that it is both a dream and reality, depending on where you live. Let me break this down. For this goal to be achieved, certain parameters from the government, businesses, and individuals must already be in place.

Achieving no petrol or diesel car sales by 2035 is most likely to become a reality in Europe, Asia, and Australia because there is already an enabling environment for this to happen in these regions. However, in Africa, this is the least of our problems because we do not trust the government to provide the necessary and enabling environment to have electric cars on the roads. We still suffer from an epileptic power supply , incessant power outages; in fact it is a struggle even to try to use alternative sources of energy. I would say this may be possible in 2100. I say this not because I want to sound pessimistic, but because I am currently living in that reality at the moment, and I know what it feels like to live in a region with low resources and where the government doesn't care about investment or anything else.

[NeuroticFish]

I know Tesla's making it fashionable to use "charging stations" and leave your car parked there for hours, but that's a pretty dumb idea if you need to get somewhere fast, or if you're driving a taxi or bus or even for Uber/Lyft.

Well, at least in theory, the driver should charge the car before it gets under a limit (20% maybe?) and normally don't go over 90% (because after that it's very slow).
And, if the drivers are not assholes keeping the charging stations busy (I think that Tesla has fixed that by charging them heftily for the extra time) one will easily find a place to charge his car.

If you've ever refueled a car before, you'll know that the process takes a few minutes maximum. Even with smaller devices such as PCs and phones, the charging can take hours. So I'm wondering how electric cars will be able to be recharged in a reasonable amount of time, let alone minutes.

Indeed, even with tricks like charging only from 20% to 90%, charging still takes a lot of time, more than for combustion cars. That's one reason why something new needs invented.

And, in places where blackouts are likely to happen, nobody will even be able to use their cars. Whereas gas stations can continue functioning even without power as long as the station itself has a generator - but the cars themselves need none of that.

One of my points was the better storage for electricity is needed. This would most probably means that such charging stations will have their own special, big capacity batteries (yet to be invented). The charging would go from there (to not overload the grid) and in case of blackouts they can still use their battery for powering their own business. Of course, if the blackout lasts too long.. nothing can help, you're right on that.

[Coyster]

Development is moving pretty fast, but we must understand that 2035 is not such a long time from now, it is just merely 12 or so years away, thus making it almost impossible for co2 emission vehicles to be completely (100%) out of the market, there would prolly be improvements regarding some of the factors affecting the widespread of EV's, but i don't don't think it is possible that they would dominate the roads in EU countries come 2035.

Having said that, by 2035 both petrol/diesel cars and EV's would both be used in the EU, and there would surely be a rise in the adoption of EV's by then. Number of charging stations, battery issues, charging speed, cost of the vehicles, etc, are some of the problems associated with the adoption of EV's, but by 2035 there is bound to be solutions to most of them, but not to the extent of making petrol/diesel cars extinct in the EU.

[SquallLeonhart]

How about those poor countries? Are they capable of having charging stations in those remote areas? I think this would be implemented in rich countries, as they are sure to be capable of it. For sure, in that year, electric cars will be more affordable compared to their price right now, as most people really want electric vehicles, but the problem is that they don't have charging stations, and the price is also very expensive. Also now for sure that it is pretty normal to see electric cars running on the road, unlike right now, it is a head-turner when you see one.

Yes, I think it is not going to be a simple road, and we are going to face with a bit of financial differences, because right now people could buy very cheap second hand gas cars, whereas the EV ones are still quite expensive, and in order for it to be 100% just EV on the road, which it will never happen, even today there are people who use cars from 60's just because they like the look of it.

So, it is impossible to be 100% EV but lets assume at least 80%+ and even that would only happen if we can somehow cut the costs, when a decent Tesla is worth 15k or at max 20k, we can definitely see it, 30+ thousand, even as high as 50k with some stuff included max package, and it is not possible.

[serveria.com]

I'm quite skeptical regarding this "You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy" lifestyle. For many needs car-sharing is not very convenient and is too expensive. As to the energy, I'm sure you know we're still burning coal and natural gas to produce it. We already have electricity shortage in many regions. Building more charging stations and selling more EVs will make things much worse.

Similarly, with services and energy - if carsharing was not convenient, it would not be on the market. But the topic is objectively convenient. Renting a car, especially with such a service, is mega-convenient. Personally enjoyed! Here is an example - we flew with friends to rest, oh. Tenerife. We all have our own cars at home. We were going to travel around the island, to see it. On foot, it’s difficult, scooters are not suitable, friends have small children. We just took and rented the necessary cars - they themselves are tailored to small children, my wife and I are comfortable in a more compact car. The right class, the right size, with the right options (child seats for friends, a convertible for my family). Or did you have to bring your own car? I'm not ready for such an act
  And in the mentality of many people there is already a paradigm shift from "ownership" to "dynamic satisfaction of needs."

Energy - I also agree that not everything is good everywhere. But it is necessary and it will be changed! I hope we will find the time when electricity becomes simple, affordable and ubiquitous, for all inhabitants of the earth

I guess classic car rent would be more suitable for the trip you described - you don't have to pay for minutes and kilometers, don't have to waste time on chasing car-sharing cars all around the unfamiliar neighborhood. You can forget something in the car easily as you have to take your stuff with you every time, you can't leave it in the car because you have to swap cars and the next driver may take it. 

[stomachgrowls]

Development is moving pretty fast, but we must understand that 2035 is not such a long time from now, it is just merely 12 or so years away, thus making it almost impossible for co2 emission vehicles to be completely (100%) out of the market, there would prolly be improvements regarding some of the factors affecting the widespread of EV's, but i don't don't think it is possible that they would dominate the roads in EU countries come 2035.

Having said that, by 2035 both petrol/diesel cars and EV's would both be used in the EU, and there would surely be a rise in the adoption of EV's by then. Number of charging stations, battery issues, charging speed, cost of the vehicles, etc, are some of the problems associated with the adoption of EV's, but by 2035 there is bound to be solutions to most of them, but not to the extent of making petrol/diesel cars extinct in the EU.

Do we really think that petrol or oil industry would really be letting for this thing to happen? No its not and this is why i dont really believe on such idea or innovation.Yes, we might be seeing that we are slowly progressing when it comes on moving into EV's but still we do know that petrolled cars is always been better on most aspect.We could really save up the environment + we could save up cost from fuel but
we would really be in balance about on the expenses if these ev's would be in repair or somewhat in maintenance.This is why it does have its con's too and also it couldn't
really outmatched a petrol powered when it comes to power and torque.

[mvdheuvel1983]

The world is developing at a fast pace technological e that I strongly believe that this goal is achievable. It is achievable in the sense that it would happen in phases. Petrol and diesel cars would not just disappear off our street overnight but it will start with the reduction in the production of these vehicles and the increase in production of electric powered vehicles. One other thing that would help these become a reality if new car companies other than Bentley,
Toyota, Honda, Ford and the rest of the go into the production of electric powered vehicles. I feel that after the world has achieved this goal they would move into setting another goal for a driverless car.

[romero121]

The world is developing at a fast pace technological e that I strongly believe that this goal is achievable. It is achievable in the sense that it would happen in phases. Petrol and diesel cars would not just disappear off our street overnight but it will start with the reduction in the production of these vehicles and the increase in production of electric powered vehicles. One other thing that would help these become a reality if new car companies other than Bentley,
Toyota, Honda, Ford and the rest of the go into the production of electric powered vehicles. I feel that after the world has achieved this goal they would move into setting another goal for a driverless car.

Maybe its true, almost every card production companies have turned their attention towards the electric vehicles. Even Bentley have come up with its plan to debut electric vehicle by 2025. Then what will be the situation of the countries that depend completely on the oil economy. Maybe the percentage of production will vary, but the fuel vehicles will be in production parallel to the electric vehicles.

[White pawn]

The world is developing at a fast pace technological e that I strongly believe that this goal is achievable. It is achievable in the sense that it would happen in phases. Petrol and diesel cars would not just disappear off our street overnight but it will start with the reduction in the production of these vehicles and the increase in production of electric powered vehicles. One other thing that would help these become a reality if new car companies other than Bentley,
Toyota, Honda, Ford and the rest of the go into the production of electric powered vehicles. I feel that after the world has achieved this goal they would move into setting another goal for a driverless car.

If it does happen in the allocated time, it would definitely happen in phases. You’re right, Petrol and diesel fueled cars won’t just disappear overnight. And people won’t just switch to electric vehicles just because.
Affordability in my opinion is also a problem that would hinder the phasing out of petrol and diesel fueled vehicles. Not everyone would be able to afford to purchase, run and maintain the electric run vehicles. So I think In the long run, they would have to make it more affordable so people could actually switch.

[Argoo]

If it does happen in the allocated time, it would definitely happen in phases. You’re right, Petrol and diesel fueled cars won’t just disappear overnight. And people won’t just switch to electric vehicles just because.
Affordability in my opinion is also a problem that would hinder the phasing out of petrol and diesel fueled vehicles. Not everyone would be able to afford to purchase, run and maintain the electric run vehicles. So I think In the long run, they would have to make it more affordable so people could actually switch.

In Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada also today, on February 24, adopted a law banning the use of buses with diesel and gasoline internal combustion engines on public transport routes from 2036.
From January 1, 2036, only electric buses, buses with internal combustion engines running on gas, as well as buses with a hydrogen fuel cell will be allowed on bus routes in cities of district and regional significance.
Ukraine is gradually bringing its legislation under the European one, as it wants to join the EU in the coming years. Apparently, this law also belongs to this category. But until then, the transition to cars will be gradual. So, from January 1, 2028, at least 50% of buses must be electric, methane or hydrogen. Diesel and gasoline engines will gradually become a thing of the past.

[fullhdpixel]

If it does happen in the allocated time, it would definitely happen in phases. You’re right, Petrol and diesel fueled cars won’t just disappear overnight. And people won’t just switch to electric vehicles just because.
Affordability in my opinion is also a problem that would hinder the phasing out of petrol and diesel fueled vehicles. Not everyone would be able to afford to purchase, run and maintain the electric run vehicles. So I think In the long run, they would have to make it more affordable so people could actually switch.

I think it would be more like majority changes and not the full on thing. By 2035, we will still have some diesel cars going around that's for sure, no doubt about that, and there will be some that is still sold, that is for sure.

However, I do not know how much EV is sold compared to petrol, but lets say it is 5% today, it could be 50% by then, or more, which means both exists, but electric cars would be sold a lot more than it is sold today, that would be the difference and I believe that it is definitely something I would be in favor of as well. EV is better for the world, it is definitely a good way to need less oil to be mined from the world.

[Quidat]

The world is developing at a fast pace technological e that I strongly believe that this goal is achievable. It is achievable in the sense that it would happen in phases. Petrol and diesel cars would not just disappear off our street overnight but it will start with the reduction in the production of these vehicles and the increase in production of electric powered vehicles. One other thing that would help these become a reality if new car companies other than Bentley,
Toyota, Honda, Ford and the rest of the go into the production of electric powered vehicles. I feel that after the world has achieved this goal they would move into setting another goal for a driverless car.

Maybe its true, almost every card production companies have turned their attention towards the electric vehicles. Even Bentley have come up with its plan to debut electric vehicle by 2025. Then what will be the situation of the countries that depend completely on the oil economy. Maybe the percentage of production will vary, but the fuel vehicles will be in production parallel to the electric vehicles.

Not really that shocking that companies would really be considering out on jumping with the current trend rather than making themselves getting behind the line.We might see that the demand isnt really that much high due to being expensive but the numbers arent falling backwards but rather seeing some gains which means that the market is really starting up to cope up which means
that they dont really like to miss out on getting that market share. Ev's and hybrids might really be existing on future years to come but i dont really believe that petrol powered would
really cease to exist or would really be gone.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, now the process of transition to electric vehicles will slow down.

This is due to the general economic situation in the world. In recent years, the amount of money in the world has increased several times. This is due to an attempt to overcome the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Therefore, it is impossible to issue new money for investments in alternative energy and the development of electric vehicles. At the same time, prices for traditional energy carriers have increased. There were also additional investment projects related to the need to develop a fleet of tankers for the transportation of liquefied gas and the construction of gas storage facilities.

As a result, there is no scope for increased investment in electric vehicle production. Yes, this direction will develop, but perhaps not as fast as previously planned.

[DrBeer]

I'm quite skeptical regarding this "You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy" lifestyle. For many needs car-sharing is not very convenient and is too expensive. As to the energy, I'm sure you know we're still burning coal and natural gas to produce it. We already have electricity shortage in many regions. Building more charging stations and selling more EVs will make things much worse.

Similarly, with services and energy - if carsharing was not convenient, it would not be on the market. But the topic is objectively convenient. Renting a car, especially with such a service, is mega-convenient. Personally enjoyed! Here is an example - we flew with friends to rest, oh. Tenerife. We all have our own cars at home. We were going to travel around the island, to see it. On foot, it’s difficult, scooters are not suitable, friends have small children. We just took and rented the necessary cars - they themselves are tailored to small children, my wife and I are comfortable in a more compact car. The right class, the right size, with the right options (child seats for friends, a convertible for my family). Or did you have to bring your own car? I'm not ready for such an act
  And in the mentality of many people there is already a paradigm shift from "ownership" to "dynamic satisfaction of needs."

Energy - I also agree that not everything is good everywhere. But it is necessary and it will be changed! I hope we will find the time when electricity becomes simple, affordable and ubiquitous, for all inhabitants of the earth

I guess classic car rent would be more suitable for the trip you described - you don't have to pay for minutes and kilometers, don't have to waste time on chasing car-sharing cars all around the unfamiliar neighborhood. You can forget something in the car easily as you have to take your stuff with you every time, you can't leave it in the car because you have to swap cars and the next driver may take it. 

I cited carsharing simply as an example of operation in the city. This is for the urban cycle - travel from point to point. In the tourist area, for a holiday, I wrote "rent" a car, which is the most cost-effective for a 10-12 day vacation.
But I wanted to convey a slightly different essence - if you understand consumption well, then for many who have a car in PERSONAL possession, they really don’t need it 24x7 and all year round I agree - you live outside the city, 50-100 km of road, your car looks more convenient. But if you ride in the home-office-home cycle, or you need to travel somewhere for 10 days - rent it! It’s just that we still have “medieval manners” - “the more expensive I own, the more pretentious I look and everyone envy me!”

[Ultegra134]

In my opinion, now the process of transition to electric vehicles will slow down.

This is due to the general economic situation in the world. In recent years, the amount of money in the world has increased several times. This is due to an attempt to overcome the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Therefore, it is impossible to issue new money for investments in alternative energy and the development of electric vehicles. At the same time, prices for traditional energy carriers have increased. There were also additional investment projects related to the need to develop a fleet of tankers for the transportation of liquefied gas and the construction of gas storage facilities.

As a result, there is no scope for increased investment in electric vehicle production. Yes, this direction will develop, but perhaps not as fast as previously planned.

The economy isn't in a great state indeed, but technology progresses and new electric cars keep popping up. I'm pretty convinced that my next car will be electric, since, whether we like it or not, it's currently the best alternative for cars with combustion engines. We have over 10 years before 2035, and chances are that electric cars will be completely different from what they currently are. On top of that, manufacturers from China such as BYD or NIO will eventually expand into other markets, making the acquisition of an electric car more affordable.

[nimogsm]

The demand for electric cars will definitely grow, but at the moment when there will be more manufacturers and prices will become more affordable, now it is an expensive pleasure.I would like to have an electric car, but not as the main car.This industry is developing quite rapidly, and many countries are encouraging the purchase of more environmentally friendly cars.There remains only one main question, and who will recycle such an amount of used batteries by 2035.

[tiCeR]

The world is developing at a fast pace technological e that I strongly believe that this goal is achievable. It is achievable in the sense that it would happen in phases. Petrol and diesel cars would not just disappear off our street overnight but it will start with the reduction in the production of these vehicles and the increase in production of electric powered vehicles. One other thing that would help these become a reality if new car companies other than Bentley,
Toyota, Honda, Ford and the rest of the go into the production of electric powered vehicles. I feel that after the world has achieved this goal they would move into setting another goal for a driverless car.

Maybe its true, almost every card production companies have turned their attention towards the electric vehicles. Even Bentley have come up with its plan to debut electric vehicle by 2025. Then what will be the situation of the countries that depend completely on the oil economy. Maybe the percentage of production will vary, but the fuel vehicles will be in production parallel to the electric vehicles.

Not really that shocking that companies would really be considering out on jumping with the current trend rather than making themselves getting behind the line.We might see that the demand isnt really that much high due to being expensive but the numbers arent falling backwards but rather seeing some gains which means that the market is really starting up to cope up which means
that they dont really like to miss out on getting that market share. Ev's and hybrids might really be existing on future years to come but i dont really believe that petrol powered would
really cease to exist or would really be gone.

If I understand correctly the transition to electric cars also depends on our ability to save energy in the form of batteries. Electric vehicles are fine, but storing energy is still a problem that needs to be resolved. I don't know whether we are close or not to actually get it done.

We probably need to hope for Elon Musk to come up with something and he is already working hard on battery technology. However, it will take time until they are as efficient as we actually need them in order to be environmentally friendly.

[DrBeer]

In my opinion, now the process of transition to electric vehicles will slow down.

This is due to the general economic situation in the world. In recent years, the amount of money in the world has increased several times. This is due to an attempt to overcome the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Therefore, it is impossible to issue new money for investments in alternative energy and the development of electric vehicles. At the same time, prices for traditional energy carriers have increased. There were also additional investment projects related to the need to develop a fleet of tankers for the transportation of liquefied gas and the construction of gas storage facilities.

As a result, there is no scope for increased investment in electric vehicle production. Yes, this direction will develop, but perhaps not as fast as previously planned.

It is foolish to deny your remark!
But there is another point - if 20 years ago the very idea of ​​mass electric transport looked unrealistic, then after the loud start of the Tesla brand, the automotive industry of the whole world chose a new vector, where huge funds have already been invested, and this has become a trend that is now impossible to stop .
Therefore, yes, there will definitely be a slowdown due to the events of 2019-2022, but there will no longer be a stop to progress in the automotive world.
I will say this, even in my Ukraine, where the country is subjected to external terrorist aggression, where the economy has suffered greatly, the demand for hybrids and electric vehicles is growing! And constantly! Of course, the first consumers were companies providing taxi services. The second part is private buyers (ordinary citizens) for personal needs.

[Iroh]

Maybe its true, almost every card production companies have turned their attention towards the electric vehicles. Even Bentley have come up with its plan to debut electric vehicle by 2025. Then what will be the situation of the countries that depend completely on the oil economy. Maybe the percentage of production will vary, but the fuel vehicles will be in production parallel to the electric vehicles.

Yeah, major car manufacturers has been over the years, going with the flow and testing the waters with electric run cars and have now added electric run cars to their machine lines.
Countries that solely depend on oil for their energy needs would find it much harder to switch to electric cars. And I doubt such countries would just stop or reduce production of gasoline run vehicles. Personally, I think it’s wishful thinking if we think we’re going to totally phase out gasoline run vehicles by 2035.

[tiCeR]

In my opinion, now the process of transition to electric vehicles will slow down.

This is due to the general economic situation in the world. In recent years, the amount of money in the world has increased several times. This is due to an attempt to overcome the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Therefore, it is impossible to issue new money for investments in alternative energy and the development of electric vehicles. At the same time, prices for traditional energy carriers have increased. There were also additional investment projects related to the need to develop a fleet of tankers for the transportation of liquefied gas and the construction of gas storage facilities.

As a result, there is no scope for increased investment in electric vehicle production. Yes, this direction will develop, but perhaps not as fast as previously planned.

It is foolish to deny your remark!
But there is another point - if 20 years ago the very idea of ​​mass electric transport looked unrealistic, then after the loud start of the Tesla brand, the automotive industry of the whole world chose a new vector, where huge funds have already been invested, and this has become a trend that is now impossible to stop .
Therefore, yes, there will definitely be a slowdown due to the events of 2019-2022, but there will no longer be a stop to progress in the automotive world.
I will say this, even in my Ukraine, where the country is subjected to external terrorist aggression, where the economy has suffered greatly, the demand for hybrids and electric vehicles is growing! And constantly! Of course, the first consumers were companies providing taxi services. The second part is private buyers (ordinary citizens) for personal needs.

It is not only about natural demand, but laws are being passed that you can't even buy the old cars anymore at some point. In addition they will subsidize the purchase of electric vehicles and at some point new dynamics will be enfolded in the market due to the growing infrastructure. That is one of the biggest problems still that you can't as easily charge your car as you can obviously do with standard petrol. But when charging times are improved and battery capacity will keep improving, we will definitely get to the point where nobody would be interested in old car models anyway. But I think battery production has to be scaled up by a lot as well.