Lotteries and possibility vs. probability

[Don Pedro Dinero]

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The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

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On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

Of course, that is the point and it is very well summarised. From a mathematical point of view it is not worth playing the lottery, but for the mere possibility and the small cost it is worth it.

Although from a mathematical point of view it is worth it in cases where there is a jackpot so that the mathematical expectancy is positive, but this would be a topic for another thread.

The 'tax' I already pay from time to time, I already pay it because from time to time, I would say once every 2 or 3 months, I buy lottery tickets.

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[Mauser]

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

In my country we say that lottery is the tax of the idiots, which is a bit harsh as I play lottery regularly myself. Just this week someone managed to win the 120m euro Jackpot. Winning such kind of money is insane, for most people a couple of million would already be enough, but getting 100+ million really makes it hard to spend all that money in a lifetime. For the government the lottery is a great revenue source as so many people are playing every week. For the average lottery player it's true that he pays the right to dream about becoming a millionaire. I also think about what I would do with the money if I win. Another explanation is that most people don't give a lot of value to 1 Euro compared to having the tiny chance of becoming a millionaire. Having 1 Euro more of less in our wallet doesn't make us richer or poorer.

[Doan9269]

There's high rate of applying for lottery, low rate of winning possibilities and the probability of getting certainty remain unsure because thise applying aren't familiar with wether of the outcome to be positive or not, aleo due to these, there have been low performance and anticipation for lottery as many equally loose interest despite it time consuming aside the fact that the winning chance is low for lottery.

[famososMuertos]

A classic millionaire lottery ticket is what it is, a dream that can come true, people in my geographical area say: dreaming is free, well with the lottery nope, but it has the category of impossible dream, but this dilemma is so cheap, the dreaming, that is makes it so appetizing. ($1, e.g.)

Someone on the Internet (influencer) spent a million dollars, that is, a million tickets and was able to recover $750,000 or a similar figure, that simple didactic example tells you that without doing much math, you only need one ticket to win the prize fat.

[Hispo]

A classic millionaire lottery ticket is what it is, a dream that can come true, people in my geographical area say: dreaming is free, well with the lottery nope, but it has the category of impossible dream, but this dilemma is so cheap, the dreaming, that is makes it so appetizing. ($1, e.g.)

Someone on the Internet (influencer) spent a million dollars, that is, a million tickets and was able to recover $750,000 or a similar figure, that simple didactic example tells you that without doing much math, you only need one ticket to win the prize fat.

If someone actually spent over 1 million of dollars on lottery tickets and only managed to recover a fraction of that the initial investment was, it tells you much on the dreaming and possibilities someone with some bucks can have to get the jackpot.

That is the main reason I do not play lottery, in the long run there are other things I can do with the accumulated money I could have spent on tickets, in that sense, we can argue it is slightly similar to gambling.

Anyways, each one of us is supposed to be responsible with their money.

[Porfirii]

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Of course, that is the point and it is very well summarised. From a mathematical point of view it is not worth playing the lottery, but for the mere possibility and the small cost it is worth it.

Although from a mathematical point of view it is worth it in cases where there is a jackpot so that the mathematical expectancy is positive, but this would be a topic for another thread.

The 'tax' I already pay from time to time, I already pay it because from time to time, I would say once every 2 or 3 months, I buy lottery tickets.

That is exactly how often I play too! I think that this is because we share the same culture, being as we are both from Spain, and we are from the same demographic segment (male/middle class/similar age).

In fact, here we have the habit of playing Christmas lottery, which costs 20€ a ticket (probability is still small but not as much as in the lotteries mentioned in the OP), and it is a long time that I prefer to save this money and spend it throughout the year, so I maintain the hope for a much longer period.

A classic millionaire lottery ticket is what it is, a dream that can come true, people in my geographical area say: dreaming is free, well with the lottery nope, but it has the category of impossible dream, but this dilemma is so cheap, the dreaming, that is makes it so appetizing. ($1, e.g.)

Someone on the Internet (influencer) spent a million dollars, that is, a million tickets and was able to recover $750,000 or a similar figure, that simple didactic example tells you that without doing much math, you only need one ticket to win the prize fat.

If someone actually spent over 1 million of dollars on lottery tickets and only managed to recover a fraction of that the initial investment was, it tells you much on the dreaming and possibilities someone with some bucks can have to get the jackpot.

That is the main reason I do not play lottery, in the long run there are other things I can do with the accumulated money I could have spent on tickets, in that sense, we can argue it is slightly similar to gambling.

Anyways, each one of us is supposed to be responsible with their money.

Well, it seems that he was already rich if he was able to spend a million, so I will not judge him, but for the common mortals it makes no logical sense to up the ante. Look:

1€ in euromillions = 0.0000007%
2€ in euromillions = 0.0000014%

So you're paying 100% more to obtain practically nothing in terms of probability. Once you paid 1€ in exchange of the possibility it should be more than enough, and those who seek to play with probability instead should look for a different game and forget about getting rich in a stroke of luck.

[QueenVera]

The probability of winning a lottery is very slim but sometimes we might be calculating the tendency to win thinking that it could be easy for us but mere looking at it, it is very difficult for us if we look at it from a general angle. It isnjuts like throwing a dice and calculating the tendency for us to have number 6 and a result. We can throw the dice and it can take us like 20 to 60 throw for us to have the number 6.
Those that play lottery and keep winning are just being lucky.

Exactly , and I think the hopes to win is the reason why people  play Lottery and to be very frank, I really don't enjoy play Lottery  and I can't  even remember  if I ever tried it simply  because I wasn't told any good stories about it.
I have a friend who is a huge fan of lottery and I wouldn't say his addicted but he does enjoys playing more of lottery to any form.of gambling  and I guess because he feels more lucky in that field and though the lottery he promotes isn't a big one, and the winnings aren't that life transforming bjt the consistency of their payoff is good to me but I'm never moved to pay and one thing I've learnt so far is the fact that people who play lottery  are one set of persons with high hopes and people who believe  in the impossible.

[Porfirii]

There are people who do just having that single ticket but did win a lottery but this is something a one in a lifetime kind of opportunity which does simply needs up that extreme luck
on which we know that lottery do really need it out.

Well, in fact it would be one in a hundred thousands lifetimes playing hundreds of times each life.

I liked Coin_trader's example about being hit twice by a lightning. In fact, the probability of being struck by a lightning seems to be something between 0.0001%-0.0002%, so it is 143-286 times easier to be hit than winning euromillions, if my calculus is correct

There is people who won just not once but several times! Yes, most of the times those were cases of money-laundering where criminals contacted winners offering to buy them the winning tickets, but, according to the whims of fate, it is still possible.

And, BTW, even not impossible, what gives me peace of mind is to think that it is still much more probable to win the lottery than to suffer an address collision in Bitcoin's blockchain.

[Cling18]

The probability of winning a lottery is very slim but sometimes we might be calculating the tendency to win thinking that it could be easy for us but mere looking at it, it is very difficult for us if we look at it from a general angle. It isnjuts like throwing a dice and calculating the tendency for us to have number 6 and a result. We can throw the dice and it can take us like 20 to 60 throw for us to have the number 6.
Those that play lottery and keep winning are just being lucky.

Exactly , and I think the hopes to win is the reason why people  play Lottery and to be very frank, I really don't enjoy play Lottery  and I can't  even remember  if I ever tried it simply  because I wasn't told any good stories about it.
I have a friend who is a huge fan of lottery and I wouldn't say his addicted but he does enjoys playing more of lottery to any form.of gambling  and I guess because he feels more lucky in that field and though the lottery he promotes isn't a big one, and the winnings aren't that life transforming bjt the consistency of their payoff is good to me but I'm never moved to pay and one thing I've learnt so far is the fact that people who play the lottery are one set of persons with high hopes and people who believe in the impossible.

As long as there will be testimonies and winning stories from lottery winners, people will always have an interest in it. Most lottery bettors have high hopes believing they could have their lives changed through it though the percentage of winning is too low. They believe that their luck could bring them a life-changing fate in the future. Many people are hooked to it because they could bet with just a single penny and it has been a part of their routine. Some bettors have been betting with the same number combination for years and still not losing hope. I think they see a lot of possibilities in the lottery despite the risk and low chances of winning.

[maydna]

People buy lotteries because they are cheap, so they buy in large quantities. And even though their chances of winning are close to zero, they still think that one day, they will hit the jackpot prize. That's what makes people addicted to buying a lottery to collect hundreds of tickets and hope one or more can win the prize. Sometimes people borrow money to buy lottery tickets because they are tempted to win a prize. They forget that the lottery game is based on luck and that only people with a high level of luck can get the jackpot. For them, the lottery is a gambling game that can be a way to get a lot of money.

[famososMuertos]

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The influencer is MrBeast, he did it in the year 2020, and now looking for the source of the information it was $720,000 with which he decided to buy an island.

Obviously, like every dreamer, his goal was to win $10,000,000, this is a case where we can easily conclude that due to his being a dreamer or from a millionaire point of view, he buys the idea of a single lottery worth $1 million.

That is, he could split it a million opportunities.
Which was what he really does because it is not easy to "scratch" a million lotteries, so he offers his earnings to a group of people who are in charge of such tedious work.

[Westinhome]

There's high rate of applying for lottery, low rate of winning possibilities and the probability of getting certainty remain unsure because thise applying aren't familiar with wether of the outcome to be positive or not, aleo due to these, there have been low performance and anticipation for lottery as many equally loose interest despite it time consuming aside the fact that the winning chance is low for lottery.

Many people interested on buying digital lottery as compared to other gambling games.Because the investment is low as compared to other games,the profit percentage is very high as never expected.One of my friend had got the Jackpot of 2000$ by the 20$ investment.In such case just imagine the profit percentage and margin.It’s very high as compared to the other games.You can easily predict by the number of possibilities.

[lionheart78]

Of course, that is the point and it is very well summarised. From a mathematical point of view it is not worth playing the lottery, but for the mere possibility and the small cost it is worth it.

Although from a mathematical point of view it is worth it in cases where there is a jackpot so that the mathematical expectancy is positive, but this would be a topic for another thread.

The 'tax' I already pay from time to time, I already pay it because from time to time, I would say once every 2 or 3 months, I buy lottery tickets.

Ordinary people simply ignore the mathematical probability of winning the lottery.  They just simply look at it as a 50:50 chance of winning.  If normal person had known and take to heart the percentage of the possibility of winning the lottery, they could get discourage and possibly thinking that they are just wasting or throwing money away.

There's high rate of applying for lottery, low rate of winning possibilities and the probability of getting certainty remain unsure because thise applying aren't familiar with wether of the outcome to be positive or not, aleo due to these, there have been low performance and anticipation for lottery as many equally loose interest despite it time consuming aside the fact that the winning chance is low for lottery.

Many people interested on buying digital lottery as compared to other gambling games.Because the investment is low as compared to other games,the profit percentage is very high as never expected.One of my friend had got the Jackpot of 2000$ by the 20$ investment.In such case just imagine the profit percentage and margin.It’s very high as compared to the other games.You can easily predict by the number of possibilities.

I would not call the money spent on lotteries an investment because the money is spent to gamble and we all know that investments and gambling are two different things.  And yeah it can be easily predict that the money spent on betting (not invested) in lotteries will more likely good as gone.

[decodx]

People buy lotteries because they are cheap, so they buy in large quantities. And even though their chances of winning are close to zero, they still think that one day, they will hit the jackpot prize. That's what makes people addicted to buying a lottery to collect hundreds of tickets and hope one or more can win the prize. Sometimes people borrow money to buy lottery tickets because they are tempted to win a prize. They forget that the lottery game is based on luck and that only people with a high level of luck can get the jackpot. For them, the lottery is a gambling game that can be a way to get a lot of money.

I think anyone who buys lottery tickets in bulk is a fool. I mean, I can somewhat understand people who play their "lucky numbers" all their lives in hopes that one day they might be lucky. But buying a bunch of tickets to increase your chances is just ridiculous in the case of the lottery. The odds of winning are astronomical, no matter how many tickets you buy.

[Lanatsa]

There are people who do just having that single ticket but did win a lottery but this is something a one in a lifetime kind of opportunity which does simply needs up that extreme luck
on which we know that lottery do really need it out.

Well, in fact it would be one in a hundred thousands lifetimes playing hundreds of times each life.

I liked Coin_trader's example about being hit twice by a lightning. In fact, the probability of being struck by a lightning seems to be something between 0.0001%-0.0002%, so it is 143-286 times easier to be hit than winning euromillions, if my calculus is correct

There is people who won just not once but several times! Yes, most of the times those were cases of money-laundering where criminals contacted winners offering to buy them the winning tickets, but, according to the whims of fate, it is still possible.

And, BTW, even not impossible, what gives me peace of mind is to think that it is still much more probable to win the lottery than to suffer an address collision in Bitcoin's blockchain.

Well, it doesnt matter which one of those things that you have mentioned but the overall idea on here is that having those probabilities or chances on hitting up those things are almost close to impossible but as

long it wouldnt be able to touch up that 0% then there's no way that it could stop gamblers on making out bets because of those kind of hopes and insights that they might really be the next winner.
Even myself did really come into a point on which i've been betting on a local lottery here in my country because i have seen that jackpot prize is already that big and there's still no winner for some several
months on which it did cause for the jackpot to rise up even on a billion on local currency which it did really spark out that kind of interest on which you cant really actually blame out people
on having this kind of approach on the time that you would really be seeing those numbers.

[klidex]

People buy lotteries because they are cheap, so they buy in large quantities. And even though their chances of winning are close to zero, they still think that one day, they will hit the jackpot prize. That's what makes people addicted to buying a lottery to collect hundreds of tickets and hope one or more can win the prize. Sometimes people borrow money to buy lottery tickets because they are tempted to win a prize. They forget that the lottery game is based on luck and that only people with a high level of luck can get the jackpot. For them, the lottery is a gambling game that can be a way to get a lot of money.

I think anyone who buys lottery tickets in bulk is a fool. I mean, I can somewhat understand people who play their "lucky numbers" all their lives in hopes that one day they might be lucky. But buying a bunch of tickets to increase your chances is just ridiculous in the case of the lottery. The odds of winning are astronomical, no matter how many tickets you buy.

If it's done in the long term, I would agree with you that buying tickets in large quantities or in large quantities is a bit of a fool.
Togel is a type of luck-based bet that exceeds slot games, even though they depend on luck but the chances of winning at the lottery are very small.
I know the chance of winning is very small and if you are lucky you will get a very large multiplier but it will be very difficult to get.

[o48o]

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer

Average person who plays lottery is happiest after they have bought the ticket. And i totally understand why. Dreaming what would you do with life changing money is fun. And since people aren't wired to grasp probabilities especially with big numbers, they deal with it by picturing smaller groups. Then winning seems more possible too. Since someone is going to win it, it might as well be them. And that's a comforting thought.

Humans never had an evolutionary need to understand big numbers so we can easily be manipulated by such numbers.

[Myleschetty]

People buy lotteries because they are cheap, so they buy in large quantities. And even though their chances of winning are close to zero, they still think that one day, they will hit the jackpot prize.

I think most lottery game player sees it as a mean of making a daily contribution to their luxury dream life and they choose to buy in large quantities to increase their chance of winning the game.
 

That's what makes people addicted to buying a lottery to collect hundreds of tickets and hope one or more can win the prize. Sometimes people borrow money to buy lottery tickets because they are tempted to win a prize. They forget that the lottery game is based on luck and that only people with a high level of luck can get the jackpot. For them, the lottery is a gambling game that can be a way to get a lot of money.

The people who are addicted to the lottery are almost those that are greedy for winning but if they can control their buzz it is still a normal thing to collect hundreds of tickets.

[Johnyz]

Government owned lottery have a lot of purpose to operate and in my country, they are a big help to many.
Many are hoping to win on lottery and some are spending a lot just to increase their probability to win unfortunately they are missing the numbers here as they are more focus to the reward. The probability is very low if you are just a single bettor, so better not to expect that much especially if you are not lucky into this kind of betting.

that is true, government owned lotteries, they are serving a lot of people paying for their medical expenses and other charitable acts. so i have nothing against with them. people who are placing their bets know the risks. so it is up to them if they will use their hard-earned money on betting or not. but we all know the chance of winning here is like punching in the air. so are you willing to take the risk?

In my country, the national lotteries are the ones sponsoring people who have no means of paying their medical bills.  Charities are also dependent on the gaming sector for its operation and maintenance.  What's more, the infrastructure is often funded by lottery proceeds.  It is really a great help for society while giving people a chance to turn their life 180 degrees.

With a little contribution of millions of ticket buyer, lotteries are able to fill the fund needed by the government in improving the life of its contituents.

The only problem with their system is that, they are being corrupted since they are making a lot of money greed people are ruining this Charity works, they overspend most of the time. Lotteries have a pros and cons as a bettor, though small bettor didn’t know how the probability works, many are still betting. If you can ask ordinary people if they are able to bet in lottery they can definitely say yes.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Though I do not thoroughly understand the op , but based on how or what I understand, lotteries like we all have discussed here on the forum on several occasions and through different topics, are one of the games or should I call it contest rather, that has the worst probability and possibility of winning, this is means the chances of an individual winning the lottery is extremely low like op rightly said, I believe this is one of the reasons it's always a big celebration for who ever turns out as a winner.

And again, on the issue bothering task, or what the monies raised from lottery is used for, for countries with national lotteries, it's a win win for the citizens if the government use the money raise from lottery to build infrastructures that will better the lives of the citizens, but this is unfortunate for me though, as I do not come from a country that has a national lottery, every lottery company in my country is private owned, and as such, money they raise go into their private pockets.