aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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May 22, 2014, 12:06:56 AM |
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Whats with the big slide down on polinex are there other exchanges with MRO. Would this be a good chance to buy in now?
This is the normal course of events. I predicted this, and profited by it. MRO traded off-exchange rose 10x in two weeks, and when it hit the exchange, the initial inflow of fiat pushed it up 4x from there. By 0.008 the top was obvious, and I sold half of my MRO. I predicted a bottom at .004 but I was delayed in checking my computer, so I didn't start buying until 0.0027. I think 0.0026 was the bottom, the end of a slide after one dead-cat bounce. Now it is reboot time. The weak hands have shaken out. The miners who needed liquidity and/or have low long-term confidence in the coin (probably most of them, as miner's have other qualifications) have sold. I am almost fully loaded again (and in fact have converted some BTC again, since I perceive 0.0026 to be a very very good opportunity). Thus my actions attest that I think the bottom is in, at the 0.382 fibonnaci retracement level. If I am wrong however, I will definitely add more (although probably I will recharge BTC from fiat as well, if I spend some on MRO, as I am uncomfortably low on BTC right now) around 0.00128. I don't expect the next topping level to be lower than 0.0129, and I do not plan to sell any below that unless there is a transient spike, as any low liquidity environment is prone to admit, and I happen to be present for it. I intend to add to my postion gradually until it meets my long-term goals. (My conceit is that by smoothing out the volatility spikes, I add a valuable service, which aids in price discovery, and creates the humane reassurances of relative price stability. Folks don't mind a gradual rise, but large sharp swings creates a kind of justifiable skepticism, and a degree of fear regarding where the price will be when liquidity is required. "Gradual" is relative to the exchange history, of course. I definitely find it enjoyable and personally lucrative to provide this service. Probably I should spend more time writing code, and less time trading and talking. I am not an MRO code contributor so far. I am extremely well qualified to be one, however, at least technically.) I would advise anyone (who is a friend, not an enemy) with discretionary investment funds to allocate a portion to MRO, because the chances are not bad that MRO will become the dominant privacy-enhanced liquidity vehicle of the coming decade, and in my estimation such a vehicle should command a market cap in the range of trillions of USD, once it reaches maximum penetration. Even a small chance of such an outcome is worthy of attention in any rational portfolio. On a time-scale of decades, the present price is largely irrelevant to the decision. If you don't need to spend the money before 2020, then don't think twice about the price, just think about how much you want to lock up over that time (and the costs likely to arise if MRO proved to be the wrong vehicle, and you needed to switch horses) and then enter by dollar cost averaging. It is truly hard to muck it up if you diligently apply dollar cost averaging. If that is beneath you, you are a trader and have no need of my advice. I personally currently aim to hold a long-term position of 8 BTC to 1 MRO, as MRO grows, as well as a short term trading position which is 10% of my crypto and fluctuates between MRO and BTC, in addition to my non-crypto investments (mostly swaps and spreads). My risk tolerance is higher than most.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Johnny Mnemonic
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May 22, 2014, 12:08:43 AM |
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The biggest thing Monero would benefit from right now, is a GPU miner. CPU-only is a guaranteed way to put the majority of the coins in the hands of criminals/botnet owners.
Will Monero ever have a GPU miner?I think there probably will be one and it probably will be faster one-on-one compared to a CPU. Whether it will be faster for the same cost (fixed and/or electricity) remains to be seen. This is *much* more memory bound than scrypt, so the GPU/CPU performance ratio should be worse. Actually I don't think a GPU can be faster one-on-one, as the PoW depends heavily on the characteristics of the CPU. If CryptoNight ASICS do become a reality, I believe the GPU mining phase will be skipped entirely.
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phzi
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May 22, 2014, 12:14:55 AM |
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The biggest thing Monero would benefit from right now, is a GPU miner. CPU-only is a guaranteed way to put the majority of the coins in the hands of criminals/botnet owners.
Will Monero ever have a GPU miner?CryptoNote is about more than just privacy. It's about freedom. That's the point of egalitarian mining. Live in an oppressive state? Fuck you, government! Anyone with an internet connection can download the miner and receive a fair share of money. What's the point of anonymous transactions if only priviledged individuals can get the coins? What's the point of a fair launch and fair distribution if the rich get disproportionately richer via priviledged mining? I'm sorry if you have a snazzy GPU farm that you're dieing to take advantage of, but Monero doesn't play favorites. It goes against the entire philosophy of this currency. I'm fairly certain that the developers and other contributing parties agree with me (speak up if you don't). Even if they are unanimously brainwashed into thinking GPU mining is a good idea, I will fight tooth and nail to make sure it never gets implemented. I swear to God, I will haunt this thread for as long as it exists and scare the bejesus out of anyone who dares to come up with some half-brained argument to enable privileged mining. Absolutely absurd. CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. CPU-only mining results in botnet owners/criminals manipulating the network. Period. Your cheap i3 will never get a reasonable portion of the network, because there will be millions of drone computers mining for their masters. GPU mining levels the field. Actually I don't think a GPU can be faster one-on-one, as the PoW depends heavily on the characteristics of the CPU. If CryptoNight ASICS do become a reality, I believe the GPU mining phase will be skipped entirely.
Highly unlikely. This was said about scrypt (which became rapidly GPU mined) - in fact many things ring very similar. The main 'protections' against GPUs and ASICs that are claimed of CryptoNight are related to L3 cache speed and scratchpad size requirements. Guess what? The same was said about scrypt...
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blaaaaacksuit
Sr. Member
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May 22, 2014, 12:18:07 AM |
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The biggest thing Monero would benefit from right now, is a GPU miner. CPU-only is a guaranteed way to put the majority of the coins in the hands of criminals/botnet owners.
Will Monero ever have a GPU miner?CryptoNote is about more than just privacy. It's about freedom. That's the point of egalitarian mining. Live in an oppressive state? Fuck you, government! Anyone with an internet connection can download the miner and receive a fair share of money. What's the point of anonymous transactions if only priviledged individuals can get the coins? What's the point of a fair launch and fair distribution if the rich get disproportionately richer via priviledged mining? I'm sorry if you have a snazzy GPU farm that you're dieing to take advantage of, but Monero doesn't play favorites. It goes against the entire philosophy of this currency. I'm fairly certain that the developers and other contributing parties agree with me (speak up if you don't). Even if they are unanimously brainwashed into thinking GPU mining is a good idea, I will fight tooth and nail to make sure it never gets implemented. I swear to God, I will haunt this thread for as long as it exists and scare the bejesus out of anyone who dares to come up with some half-brained argument to enable privileged mining. Absolutely absurd. CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. CPU-only mining results in botnet owners/criminals manipulating the network. Period. Your cheap i3 will never get a reasonable portion of the network, because there will be millions of drone computers mining for their masters. GPU mining levels the field. Nobody uses botnets to mine coins, a constantly pegged CPU is very noticeable to just about anyone with a pulse.
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xxnirvana69xx
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May 22, 2014, 12:19:03 AM |
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Finally got my fx-8320 and am getting around 200H/s. Way better than the 40 I was getting with my phenom x4 840. Hopefully it helps me pay off the new processor now haha!
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blaaaaacksuit
Sr. Member
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May 22, 2014, 12:20:11 AM |
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Finally got my fx-8320 and am getting around 200H/s. Way better than the 40 I was getting with my phenom x4 840. Hopefully it helps me pay off the new processor now haha!
Which miner?
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aminorex
Legendary
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May 22, 2014, 12:22:18 AM |
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CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. CPU-only mining results in botnet owners/criminals manipulating the network. Period. Your cheap i3 will never get a reasonable portion of the network, because there will be millions of drone computers mining for their masters. GPU mining levels the field.
Algorithms which adapt well to GPU are more likely to adapt well to ASIC, all else being equal. ASIC means centralization, which is the kiss of death for privacy and freedom. That doesn't mean privacy and freedom are easy to achieve if one can avoid centralization, or that non-ASIC algorithms imply decentralized control. Stuff's hard. Moreover botnets have GPUs. Increasingly it is hard to find a CPU which is not associated with a similarly scaled level of SIMD compute, typically via one of the mainstream GPU ISAs. I think peer-whitelisting is the only viable way forward towards excluding botnets. It's not easy, and it's not guaranteed, but it is worth trying.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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darkota
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May 22, 2014, 12:23:57 AM |
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The biggest thing Monero would benefit from right now, is a GPU miner. CPU-only is a guaranteed way to put the majority of the coins in the hands of criminals/botnet owners.
Will Monero ever have a GPU miner?CryptoNote is about more than just privacy. It's about freedom. That's the point of egalitarian mining. Live in an oppressive state? Fuck you, government! Anyone with an internet connection can download the miner and receive a fair share of money. What's the point of anonymous transactions if only priviledged individuals can get the coins? What's the point of a fair launch and fair distribution if the rich get disproportionately richer via priviledged mining? I'm sorry if you have a snazzy GPU farm that you're dieing to take advantage of, but Monero doesn't play favorites. It goes against the entire philosophy of this currency. I'm fairly certain that the developers and other contributing parties agree with me (speak up if you don't). Even if they are unanimously brainwashed into thinking GPU mining is a good idea, I will fight tooth and nail to make sure it never gets implemented. I swear to God, I will haunt this thread for as long as it exists and scare the bejesus out of anyone who dares to come up with some half-brained argument to enable privileged mining. Absolutely absurd. CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. CPU-only mining results in botnet owners/criminals manipulating the network. Period. Your cheap i3 will never get a reasonable portion of the network, because there will be millions of drone computers mining for their masters. GPU mining levels the field. Nobody uses botnets to mine coins, a constantly pegged CPU is very noticeable to just about anyone with a pulse. Lol, this made me laugh. Botnets, if you took any time to research at all, coins can be mined without the operator of the computer even noticing. CPU only coins always get raped by Botnets...always..And those hackers/botnet operators rake in thousands upon thousands, maybe even tens of thousands considering the pump and dump monero had on poloniex.
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xxnirvana69xx
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May 22, 2014, 12:27:41 AM |
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Finally got my fx-8320 and am getting around 200H/s. Way better than the 40 I was getting with my phenom x4 840. Hopefully it helps me pay off the new processor now haha!
Which miner? The simple miner that was posted today.
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blaaaaacksuit
Sr. Member
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May 22, 2014, 12:28:35 AM |
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Lol, this made me laugh.
Botnets, if you took any time to research at all, coins can be mined without the operator of the computer even noticing. CPU only coins always get raped by Botnets...always..And those hackers/botnet operators rake in thousands upon thousands, maybe even tens of thousands considering the pump and dump monero had on poloniex.
Yes, 1000BTC volume on poloniex was the result of 1337 haxorz botnet mining and then p&ding all their mro. Dude.
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eizh
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May 22, 2014, 12:29:44 AM |
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Absolutely absurd. CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. ... GPU mining levels the field.
Last I checked, discrete GPUs are an expensive technology largely confined to rich white Western males. Let's not pretend it's 'fair'. Just like everyone else, they're an interest group trying to serve themselves. It's actually a rather tiny community in the grand scheme (the world is pretty big), but they have a disproportionate presence on this forum.
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darkota
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May 22, 2014, 12:32:27 AM |
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Absolutely absurd. CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. ... GPU mining levels the field.
Last I checked, discrete GPUs are an expensive technology largely confined to rich white Western males. Let's not pretend it's 'fair'. Just like everyone else, they're an interest group trying to serve themselves. It's actually a rather tiny community in the grand scheme (the world is pretty big), but they have a disproportionate presence on this forum. It's sure as hell more fair than hackers having 100, 200, 300 computer botnet farms mining CPU only coins.
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aminorex
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May 22, 2014, 12:39:02 AM |
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Yes, 1000BTC volume on poloniex was the result of ...botnet mining...
Perhaps 250k MRO flipped, about .30 of the float. A maximum entropy argument implies the highest probability distribution has 30% of the coins mined by botnet, albiet it has error bars that make the estimate almost useless. If you had informative priors about the likelihood that a non-bot MRO holder would flip at that price, you could make a much better estimate. It would almost certainly be higher.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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blaaaaacksuit
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May 22, 2014, 12:40:45 AM |
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It's sure as hell more fair than hackers having 100, 200, 300 computer botnet farms mining CPU only coins.
Far more likely that the majority of the hashrate comes from people around the world renting VM instances mining MRO and paying for it.
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aminorex
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May 22, 2014, 12:46:45 AM |
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Roughly 30,000 typical desktops worth of hash on the network now.
Any estimate of downloads?
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Johnny Mnemonic
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May 22, 2014, 12:50:11 AM |
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Absolutely absurd. CPU mined coins are not "fair" in any measurable way. ... GPU mining levels the field.
Last I checked, discrete GPUs are an expensive technology largely confined to rich white Western males. Let's not pretend it's 'fair'. Just like everyone else, they're an interest group trying to serve themselves. It's actually a rather tiny community in the grand scheme (the world is pretty big), but they have a disproportionate presence on this forum. It's sure as hell more fair than hackers having 100, 200, 300 computer botnet farms mining CPU only coins. If you have 100, 200, or 300 CPUs at your disposal, then good for you. You will be rewarded proportionately. However, if you think you will ever be able to earn a disproportionate advantage with special hardware, you better start looking for another coin. As stated upthread, hard forks will not be so unthinkable in the future. The PoW will evolve to stay current with hardware.
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phzi
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May 22, 2014, 12:57:12 AM |
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Last I checked, discrete GPUs are an expensive technology largely confined to rich white Western males. Let's not pretend it's 'fair'. Just like everyone else, they're an interest group trying to serve themselves. It's actually a rather tiny community in the grand scheme (the world is pretty big), but they have a disproportionate presence on this forum.
Still, everyone can go buy a GPU - level playing field. Not everyone can (and definitely should not) go create a large botnet and abuse their CPUs... It's sure as hell more fair than hackers having 100, 200, 300 computer botnet farms mining CPU only coins.
Far more likely that the majority of the hashrate comes from people around the world renting VM instances mining MRO and paying for it. Lol.. no, it really isn't more likely. Botnet is WAY more likely based on the history of CPU coins.
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smooth
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May 22, 2014, 01:01:36 AM |
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You can't hide the temperature (especially on a laptop, meaning a huge share of computers now) and fans going. You can mine only at a low level of usage without being noticed, but then you greatly reduce your output. And even then, it won't matter once the coin is widely adopted, because legitimate users will far outnumber botnets, and will drive the difficulty up to where professional miners (including botnet operators) won't be interested. This conversation is fairly pointless though. This is a designed (legitimately, unlike most of the others) as a CPU coin and its going to remain a CPU coin for the immediate future, until perhaps a design flaw or other technological obstacle gets in the way. If you don't like CPU coins, you should just move on to one of the hundreds of GPU and/or ASIC coins. If you stay here and post negatively about it, you are clearly being a troll or FUD bombing. Its all quite transparent.
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smooth
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May 22, 2014, 01:04:37 AM |
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Last I checked, discrete GPUs are an expensive technology largely confined to rich white Western males. Let's not pretend it's 'fair'. Just like everyone else, they're an interest group trying to serve themselves. It's actually a rather tiny community in the grand scheme (the world is pretty big), but they have a disproportionate presence on this forum.
Still, everyone can go buy a GPU - level playing field. Not everyone can (and definitely should not) go create a large botnet and abuse their CPUs... It's sure as hell more fair than hackers having 100, 200, 300 computer botnet farms mining CPU only coins.
Far more likely that the majority of the hashrate comes from people around the world renting VM instances mining MRO and paying for it. Lol.. no, it really isn't more likely. Botnet is WAY more likely based on the history of CPU coins. You're wrong about this. I have a screen shot that was PMed to me by someone who paid a lot of money for a lot of servers to mine this coin. He won't be outed by me ever but he does in fact exist. Truth. There is little to no evidence of any massive botnet involvement with this coin. If and when it does happen, you will see malware detectors (false positive) flagging the miners, because the miners get incorporated into malware. If you knew as much as you claim to know about botnet mining, you would know this. FUD bombing or trolling, which is it?
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