aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 04:49:17 PM |
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I suggest that topics unrelated to speculation be directed to another thread.
Regarding stable levels, you can reason about it simply: BTC 2013 established that DNM demand supports a $100 * 10mm currency, b =1e9 USD. Some multiple of that, k, between 0.0 and 1.0, shall be supported in XMR at equilibrium, at some time n years in the future. The crypto speculation marketplace discounts future values at some rate, "r". The NPV of XMR is then P_now = k*b*(r^-n). To value XMR today, estimate k,r, as a function of n. The trading range today should be distributed as the distribution of the parameters implies for P_now.
Since b grows over time, using the 2013 value produces an under-estimate.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Hueristic
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
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August 23, 2016, 04:54:20 PM |
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I sold 55% of my xmr today for a nice healthy profit. I'll buy back in a few months when the price has shed over 50% of its gains.
Bitcoin also started from sub-$1 one point. Especially the ride to $32 left no prisoners so good luck with your plan. (I do advocate diversifying, but not buying back lower, because I think it increases the risk with no corresponding gain). Listen to this guy, he knows what he's talking about.  God I love that! the number of large owners are decreasing and the coin gets more diversified at this point
What evidence do you have? Early weak hands? Inmho, Monero has (had) the strongest bagholders ever met in the world Just look at the rich list.  the number of large owners are decreasing and the coin gets more diversified at this point
What evidence do you have? Early weak hands? Inmho, Monero has (had) the strongest bagholders ever met in the world I think all the weak hands are shaken out. A lot of commits from the Dev on the official GUI this past 24 hours. As far as I can see there are no outstanding issues. https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activityI would speculate we're almost there. Still alot of work left. What I wonder is what will be average daily volume during next month? Any guesses? Inm last 30 days before yesterday daily average was 550 BTC. Now yesterday demolished all past and new relations will need to emerge.
It is getting really impressive. Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.
Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.
I got blindsided as well. Looks like I'm just cheering you guys on. I didn't expect to break 42 and boy did it ever! |
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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luigi1111
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August 23, 2016, 04:54:35 PM |
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Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.
Hard to get 'em back when the market moves wildly in one direction, eh? |
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 04:54:47 PM |
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That is fascinating. Thank you. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 05:12:23 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2016, 05:32:28 PM by aminorex |
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I suggest that topics unrelated to speculation be directed to another thread.
Regarding stable levels, you can reason about it simply: BTC 2013 established that DNM demand supports a $100 * 10mm currency, b =1e9 USD. Some multiple of that, k, between 0.0 and 1.0, shall be supported in XMR at equilibrium, at some time n years in the future. The crypto speculation marketplace discounts future values at some rate, "r". The NPV of XMR is then P_now = k*b*(r^-n). To value XMR today, estimate k,r, as a function of n. The trading range today should be distributed as the distribution of the parameters implies for P_now.
Since b grows over time, using the 2013 value produces an under-estimate.
Another way of using this relationship: r = exp[(log{k*b}-log{P})/n]. If you think the market-implied discounting rate "r" is excessive, buy. I you think it is too rosy-eyed, sell. Of course this is fundamentals-based rational long-term investment policy, and does not account for speculative excesses, nor does it model volatility directly. Variance due to parametric uncertainty and volatility should be reflected in your position sizing (Kelly/leverage space). |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 05:20:25 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2016, 05:42:09 PM by aminorex |
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Hard to get 'em back when the market moves wildly in one direction, eh?
Exactimente. Your volatility is low ( good Sharpe) but if you sacrifice all the tail gains, well... No financial professional can simultaneously underperform the market and claim to competence. I like to outperform on both risk-adjusted and un-adjusted bases. It makes up for years of painful self-control that way. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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August 23, 2016, 05:32:05 PM |
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Wouldn't be surprised if Monero is the next Bitcoin. I just bought quite a bit. I have never been really been a Monero Supporter until now.
What exactly changed your mind if I may ask? |
- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero. |
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nioc
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August 23, 2016, 05:39:12 PM |
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My gut feeling says we're heading towards 0.012.
We're clearly in the middle of a profound change.
I think your guy feeling is wrong but good luck to you if you are invested and plan on selling some at .012 Perhaps. But of the several years I've been frequenting this thread I can't think of any occasions where I have been wrong as yet. Yeah this guy rangedriver's gut is good. Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.
Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.
This guy ain't bad either especially considering his uberty. Your chance to right click aminorex  I have held through ALL the ups and downs. I'll consider selling a few when there are no zeros immediately to the right of the decimal point. |
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Blazin8888
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August 23, 2016, 05:41:23 PM |
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179 BTC BUY WALL - HERE WE GO ? - BREAKING 1 MILLO SAT NOW?
Chewpracabra that faggot MOD in troll box hammered me for telling people to buy some XMR cheap lmao I think he is a butt hurt mod who missed this rise
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 05:44:21 PM |
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179 BTC BUY WALL - HERE WE GO ? - BREAKING 1 MILLO SAT NOW?
Chewpracabra that faggot MOD in troll box hammered me for telling people to buy some XMR cheap lmao I think he is a butt hurt mod who missed this rise
Yeah, trollbox mod policy is fascist. They will not tolerate truth or honesty there, only mealy-mouthed deceits. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Febo
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August 23, 2016, 07:13:15 PM |
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I think i caught the highest volume unless there will be soem surprises next hour.  |
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jehst
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August 23, 2016, 07:42:52 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
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Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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primer-
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August 23, 2016, 07:53:30 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
The price is going down back to .005 once XMR deposits are re-enabled on Polo. They've been re-syncing their wallets for 13 hours now... |
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Msile
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August 23, 2016, 07:56:28 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
The price is going down back to .005 once XMR deposits are re-enabled on Polo. They've been re-syncing their wallets for 13 hours now... ''resyncing their wallet'' also known as selling their pumped up XMR |
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primer-
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August 23, 2016, 07:58:20 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
The price is going down back to .005 once XMR deposits are re-enabled on Polo. They've been re-syncing their wallets for 13 hours now... ''resyncing their wallet'' also known as selling their pumped up XMR Yes, Poloniex is pulling an ETC-like stunt again... Turned into a such a shady exchange.. |
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MooneroShill
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August 23, 2016, 08:00:27 PM |
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primer- arrives => I'm buying more
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Blazin8888
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August 23, 2016, 08:06:29 PM |
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I think we will be calm for the next 4-8 hours until we break 1 MILL SAT.
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aminorex
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August 23, 2016, 08:22:10 PM |
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I am hoping for a drop to 650k. I will be all-in at that point.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Drhiggins
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August 23, 2016, 08:25:07 PM |
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In Feb 2011, the original Silk Road was created and the bitcoin price was ~$1. In the summer of 2011 it touched $32. Do we follow a same trajectory, possibly even quicker, with a mature DNM?
I'm thinking along these lines as well. DNM linked with privacy of Monero will drive more merchants to accept. Plus when GUI drops we will see a short term bloom from that alone. I think XMR at $15 U.S. by Jan 1st 2017. I'm no financial expert though. |
Monerohash.com U.S. Mining Pool
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primer-
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August 23, 2016, 08:25:29 PM |
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I am hoping for a drop to 650k. I will be all-in at that point.
Hehe you are one stupid trader |
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