[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

Do you guys think GUI will be out by the end of 2016 (realistically)?

Not a lot remains of 2016

That is two months what is not that little of time. Four dev meetings.
Usually are picked strange dates when you least expect it.
Hydrogen Helix got out on 1st January.

[Hueristic]

TC, What is it in particular about the current state of Monero as a whole that makes you believe a best case scenario can and will pan out?
I for one believe what you write COULD potentially happen, but as far as i have learnt its not actually very likely at all.

What indications for success can you see that i cannot? I'll admit your posts grabbed my attention around the start of September and as a result i bought in (No regrets here) however after being here for some time, i feel that maybe its just a strategy of yours (I remember you talking about a self fulfilling prophecy that just believing strongly enough then it will happen is a driving force in itself to make it happen)

In other news, i watched a video that talked about why bitcoin has not had mass adoption and it raised some pretty good points. In particular that in general, back end programmers simply do not have the required expertise in transactional buisness, promotion and marketing to really bring such a groundbreaking technology to the public. When i learnt about crypto, it took me hours of learning before i truly saw the bigger picture and i am just an average joe (In crypto terms anyways).

To me this indicates that we need an obvious incentive for new users and not just promise of a grand vision (That a lot of people will simply not have the time to realise themselves)

I sure hope this thing does pan out like some of you guys predict. But from were i am stood if this is to happen we as a community need to seriously innovate on a kind of marketing strategy at least to promote the coin now things are getting more competitive

And this is a perfect example of not doing your proper research, TC became a Bull after the spike. If you had gone back some time i the thread it is easy to see his trends.

Taking advice from a random thread poster is not the brightest move. You have been.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

[infofront]

Do you guys think GUI will be out by the end of 2016 (realistically)?

No. My best, though somewhat pessimistic, estimate is March 2017.

[KeyJockey]

Hmm I thought the most recent 'official statement' was that the GUI release was "Imminent" -- doesn't "imminent" mean sooner than two more months?

I mean, c'mon guys let's at least see an 'alpha' release if not actual 'beta' or final version here, amirite?

Just having something at least, that the masses can SEE is basically working -- even if it's not 100% perfect yet?  OR is there serious risk of losing XMR if things in the GUI are not absolutely squeaky clean... isn't this just a layer on the current daemon and CLI wallet?

Frankly I'm a long-term Monero supporter and HODL'er and I've defended the lack of a pretty eye-candy GUI front-end for a long time, but... c'mon again this is startin' to get a little ridiculous, dontcha think? 

How long it's taking to release the official GUI is also one of the only really big things that Monero Haters have in their arsenal to throw out against XMR and I for one would at least like to see THAT taken away from 'em...

[flagel8]

...It is totally preposterous and dubios to claim that monero needs no marketing.

Beside the fact that marketing was and is already a part of Monero. But it is expendable. I really dont understand why some people here are ignoring totally basic factors and than wonder why we haven't had a price explosion.

Marketing is a key function for success. Most people here are holding monero because they hope its somewhen more valueable as today. To believe monero itself will do this job is simply wrong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketing

Too bad this comment was, no doubt, disregarded because of the source. But I have to hold my nose and agree with him here, and strongly.

But there is little point expending resources before Monero is usable by the average person - therefore the GUI needs to be released, and soon. It may prove to have been a great folly to await an Official "All Singing, All Dancing" Bells and Whistle GUI, instead of just releasing a simple but functional one, but in time to gain some meaningful adoption. If "some other" privacy oriented crypto launches before Monero has an official GUI, and it becomes synonymous with privacy in the public mind, and therefore gains acceptance as THE privacy coin, it won't matter how flawed it is compared to Monero. It will have won, and Monero will join the club, whose members, Beta, myspace, Napster, are remembered, but largely ignored.

The race is on, and some are already running with old ratty sneakers from W***mart, closing in on the finish line, and some are STILL awaiting the delivery of Energy-Rebounding Compressed Argon Traction sole HyperCrocs, SOON.

[Nydan]

TC, What is it in particular about the current state of Monero as a whole that makes you believe a best case scenario can and will pan out?
I for one believe what you write COULD potentially happen, but as far as i have learnt its not actually very likely at all.

What indications for success can you see that i cannot? I'll admit your posts grabbed my attention around the start of September and as a result i bought in (No regrets here) however after being here for some time, i feel that maybe its just a strategy of yours (I remember you talking about a self fulfilling prophecy that just believing strongly enough then it will happen is a driving force in itself to make it happen)

In other news, i watched a video that talked about why bitcoin has not had mass adoption and it raised some pretty good points. In particular that in general, back end programmers simply do not have the required expertise in transactional buisness, promotion and marketing to really bring such a groundbreaking technology to the public. When i learnt about crypto, it took me hours of learning before i truly saw the bigger picture and i am just an average joe (In crypto terms anyways).

To me this indicates that we need an obvious incentive for new users and not just promise of a grand vision (That a lot of people will simply not have the time to realise themselves)

I sure hope this thing does pan out like some of you guys predict. But from were i am stood if this is to happen we as a community need to seriously innovate on a kind of marketing strategy at least to promote the coin now things are getting more competitive

And this is a perfect example of not doing your proper research, TC became a Bull after the spike. If you had gone back some time i the thread it is easy to see his trends.

Taking advice from a random thread poster is not the brightest move. You have been.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

How is this constructive in any way? You ignored everything I said apart from an opportunity to insult and troll me.

I actually wanted to hear TC's reply to my genuine questions I was not criticising him

And for the record TC was not the deciding factor for my investment, but thanks for your incredibly insightful reply. I guess if I want to be a part of this forum I'm gunna have to check, check and check again to make sure nothing is open to interpretation. But yeah I guess I should be more clear.

I was aware of Bitcoin back when it was £8 and this was my main reason for investment (FOMO)

Why cant you be more friendly to noobs? In my experience lessons are not usually free and I do not mind that I have made (potentially) bad decisions only that I learn from them

[TrueCryptonaire]

TC, What is it in particular about the current state of Monero as a whole that makes you believe a best case scenario can and will pan out?
I for one believe what you write COULD potentially happen, but as far as i have learnt its not actually very likely at all.

What indications for success can you see that i cannot? I'll admit your posts grabbed my attention around the start of September and as a result i bought in (No regrets here) however after being here for some time, i feel that maybe its just a strategy of yours (I remember you talking about a self fulfilling prophecy that just believing strongly enough then it will happen is a driving force in itself to make it happen)

In other news, i watched a video that talked about why bitcoin has not had mass adoption and it raised some pretty good points. In particular that in general, back end programmers simply do not have the required expertise in transactional buisness, promotion and marketing to really bring such a groundbreaking technology to the public. When i learnt about crypto, it took me hours of learning before i truly saw the bigger picture and i am just an average joe (In crypto terms anyways).

To me this indicates that we need an obvious incentive for new users and not just promise of a grand vision (That a lot of people will simply not have the time to realise themselves)

I sure hope this thing does pan out like some of you guys predict. But from were i am stood if this is to happen we as a community need to seriously innovate on a kind of marketing strategy at least to promote the coin now things are getting more competitive

I am not 100 % convinced the best case scenario will pan out. I am convinced enough to hold some coins. Even if Monero goes to 0 I am not ending up tp bankcruptcy though because I have other assets as well which I recommend for everybody. Monero, and projects like these, are wild cards and I don't think it is a prudent move to be "all in".
However, I cannot forgive myself if I do not own enough coins to become rich if the best case (or even 2nd best or 3rd best) scenario pans out.
The odds in reaching high price is good enough to hold the coin (I don't think it is smart to hold Monero if the chances for 1000000000 X rise is let's say 1 % or 2 % even though the expected value might be lucrative but the odds are so low that basically you need to find dozens of projects like this to become rich with 1 project).

There are some indications of failure actually (the GUI soon -fiasco), that's not trolling, I am just honest here. Also there is 0 marketing as well which is very bad thing in my opinion (without people being aware of the existence of XMR nobody can buy it). Someone needs to give the face to XMR, make vlogs about it, go to events talking about it (I think the Pony does a little this). Marketing doesn't need to look tidy, just an ordinary guy/girl talking about it in the language to wide audience(s) everybody can understand without being The Pony.
I don't know what are you seeing when you are watching XMR but there is a decent community (even when the price was 0.001), the projects are getting funded in the blink of an eye with decent hourly salaries.


DNM are a good thing as well for Monero but I think Monero could reach high value even without them if the coin is going to be used for store of value. If that's a primary use case, it can reach high value even without GUI in my opinion.

I was bearish because the markets used to be bearish because old ATH of 0.0111 was untouched for so long time.
Currently I am semi bearish/semi bullish (the price is still above the previous trading range).

If you think XMR will reach to high numbers, you consider these cheap coins and lower your average purchasing price (in case you are underwater), if you are unsure, then you do nothing and waite what will happen and if you think "that's it, it is dead" then perhaps the best choice is to sell.
Personally I am willing to buy more and I have set my bids to the points I am willing to risk the amount of money I can afford to lose at that certain point.


Sorry for rambling. 

[Hueristic]

TC, What is it in particular about the current state of Monero as a whole that makes you believe a best case scenario can and will pan out?
I for one believe what you write COULD potentially happen, but as far as i have learnt its not actually very likely at all.

What indications for success can you see that i cannot? I'll admit your posts grabbed my attention around the start of September and as a result i bought in (No regrets here) however after being here for some time, i feel that maybe its just a strategy of yours (I remember you talking about a self fulfilling prophecy that just believing strongly enough then it will happen is a driving force in itself to make it happen)

In other news, i watched a video that talked about why bitcoin has not had mass adoption and it raised some pretty good points. In particular that in general, back end programmers simply do not have the required expertise in transactional buisness, promotion and marketing to really bring such a groundbreaking technology to the public. When i learnt about crypto, it took me hours of learning before i truly saw the bigger picture and i am just an average joe (In crypto terms anyways).

To me this indicates that we need an obvious incentive for new users and not just promise of a grand vision (That a lot of people will simply not have the time to realise themselves)

I sure hope this thing does pan out like some of you guys predict. But from were i am stood if this is to happen we as a community need to seriously innovate on a kind of marketing strategy at least to promote the coin now things are getting more competitive

And this is a perfect example of not doing your proper research, TC became a Bull after the spike. If you had gone back some time i the thread it is easy to see his trends.

Taking advice from a random thread poster is not the brightest move. You have been.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

How is this constructive in any way? You ignored everything I said apart from an opportunity to insult and troll me.

I actually wanted to hear TC's reply to my genuine questions I was not criticising him

And for the record TC was not the deciding factor for my investment, but thanks for your incredibly insightful reply. I guess if I want to be a part of this forum I'm gunna have to check, check and check again to make sure nothing is open to interpretation. But yeah I guess I should be more clear.

I was aware of Bitcoin back when it was £8 and this was my main reason for investment (FOMO)

Why cant you be more friendly to noobs? In my experience lessons are not usually free and I do not mind that I have made (potentially) bad decisions only that I learn from them

My apologies, I meant TC has rolled you and yes I pointed out the obvious. But you have invested in the BEST bar none ALT. You will just have to help your investment now rather than riding the hype that you thought you were going todo.

Welcome.

[Nydan]

Thanks for your reply you basically reminded my why I initially bought in so high (I stock averaged so spread out my buys for an average price of ~£7.50 I think) and that was simply because I was infact gambling parrarel to investing and the risk reward ratio was too large to ignore! That being said, I have never set foot in a gambling establishment or placed a bet to date and frankly, this is much more fun (being part of a community)

I think despite the recent trolling of nrg we can all agree he was right about marketing and that does indeed seem to be still being discussed in his absence, therefore I see an apportunity for another FFS bounty that will really benefit the project. I however am a noob with little experience, is there not a more established member of the community that is willing to stick there neck out and make an attempt at raising this marketing fund? Maybe great things will happen. It needs to happen at some point so why not maybe time a marketing fund with the gui ? Just my 2 xmr

[kurious]

This will hurt, but I hope it is the final capitulation.

If it is, then the only way after it, is up.

Saddle up and ready what powder you have left...

[wpalczynski]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

200 MA on the daily chart is .062. I put my bids there and adjust as the MA changes.

[CTTE]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.

I think we have to remember that Monero shouldn't be negatively linked to the rise of Bitcoin since it is basically a better "bitcoin" than Bitcoin! And it's purpose is to take over the role of BTC in many of the places where BTC fails due to lack of fungibility, privacy, etc...  So, when the price of BTC goes up against fiat, if we as a whole, have our heads on straight... we should view Monero as increasing in value against fiat as well. And I say that, knowing that we have very few options for directly trading fiat for Monero.

Does that make sense?

[megges]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.

I think we have to remember that Monero shouldn't be negatively linked to the rise of Bitcoin since it is basically a better "bitcoin" than Bitcoin! And it's purpose is to take over the role of BTC in many of the places where BTC fails due to lack of fungibility, privacy, etc...  So, when the price of BTC goes up against fiat, if we as a whole, have our heads on straight... we should view Monero as increasing in value against fiat as well. And I say that, knowing that we have very few options for directly trading fiat for Monero.

Does that make sense?

like it or not, but thats why dash is approaching as much fiat getways as they could get ... but in the end its still dominated by btc, as xmr is, too.

it would hard to change that, because most alt holders came trough btc and are sticking to it!

[wpalczynski]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.

I think we have to remember that Monero shouldn't be negatively linked to the rise of Bitcoin since it is basically a better "bitcoin" than Bitcoin! And it's purpose is to take over the role of BTC in many of the places where BTC fails due to lack of fungibility, privacy, etc...  So, when the price of BTC goes up against fiat, if we as a whole, have our heads on straight... we should view Monero as increasing in value against fiat as well. And I say that, knowing that we have very few options for directly trading fiat for Monero.

Does that make sense?

I think if the next bitcoin ascent takes place as many people are expecting all alts will take a massive dump regardless of their technical superiority, the better ones, Monero included IMO, will eventually make really nice gains but I think at the onset of the next BTC bubble it will be a bloodbath for alts.

[kurious]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

You're probably right - I can't see another run until Spring and with BTC awaking and looking bullish, it'll be rough for months.

As for zcash - a quarter of a BTC a pop?  I don't margin play, but I am sure there those braver than me who will make money shorting the hell out of it.

A price so high could be good news for XMR, it looks like a car crash waiting to happen. 

A little irrational exuberance for the new shiny thing....?

Plus ça change

[wpalczynski]

A little irrational exuberance for the new shiny thing....?

Plus ça change

A little? LOL people have lost their fucking mind.  It's not even released yet and its already at 5x the ATH of any other altcoin that I can remember.

[Luxo]

I truly wonder what will be the bottom. I personally think that it will slowly go down until the GUI comes out from which it will go up from there, be it fast or slow. People are probably selling right now because of BTC going up, upcoming Zcash and losing faith on the GUI releasing Soon^TM.

There is still the possibility of Monero completely failing but I have invested what I was ready to lose since the beginning. I consider my money gone since I invested in Monero.

I try to keep buying what I think is the lowest point so I bought some at 0.01 and some at 0.009 but am not sure how low it will get. Almost have no more money to buy haha.

However, I am very optimistic in the future of monero as recently a new guy (Jaqueee) is and could be working on the GUI long term (which will have many other useful features such as paying a btc address from the Monero GUI, making the GUI portable to phones, etc...). There is also the fact that anonimal has been funded to work on the KOVRI project full time. Seeing people getting more and more involved on the development of monero is only a good sign to me.

Only time will tell.

[kurious]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.

I think we have to remember that Monero shouldn't be negatively linked to the rise of Bitcoin since it is basically a better "bitcoin" than Bitcoin! And it's purpose is to take over the role of BTC in many of the places where BTC fails due to lack of fungibility, privacy, etc...  So, when the price of BTC goes up against fiat, if we as a whole, have our heads on straight... we should view Monero as increasing in value against fiat as well. And I say that, knowing that we have very few options for directly trading fiat for Monero.

Does that make sense?

I think if the next bitcoin ascent takes place as many people are expecting all alts will take a massive dump regardless of their technical superiority, the better ones, Monero included IMO, will eventually make really nice gains but I think at the onset of the next BTC bubble it will be a bloodbath for alts.

Yes and Polo will not help - there is not really a fiat component there, it's a binary choice: hold a rising BTC, or the falling alts?  It's not a choice I could argue against.... 

Except this: When people see the rise and feel it's time to realise profit - oversold Alts will look tasty... And the best alts will leap up.  Fast...

[wpalczynski]

Except this: When people see the rise and feel it's time to realise profit - oversold Alts will look tasty... And the best alts will leap up.  Fast...

My thoughts exactly.  And I think when that time finally comes although it might not be anytime soon, Monero will be one of the better performing ones because of its technical attributes.  I mean what else is there?  ETH is a complete farce.